• Title/Summary/Keyword: Crime Occurrence rate

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Crime Occurrence Patterns from the Perspective of Land-use

  • Kinashi, Machiko;Tan, Yen Xin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.17-18
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    • 2015
  • To improve urban safety there is an increasing social need for environmental design against crime, which is defined as the creation of inconvenient environments or situations for criminal offenders. By using a cluster analysis, we aimed to clarify crime occurrence patterns from the perspective of land-use. Osaka Prefecture was chosen as the study area because it has the highest crime rate in Japan. The results revealed that there are six patterns of crime occurrence, and that cities of medium-level of mixed land-use have the lowest crime rates.

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Classification Model and Crime Occurrence City Forecasting Based on Random Forest Algorithm

  • KANG, Sea-Am;CHOI, Jeong-Hyun;KANG, Min-soo
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.21-25
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    • 2022
  • Korea has relatively less crime than other countries. However, the crime rate is steadily increasing. Many people think the crime rate is decreasing, but the crime arrest rate has increased. The goal is to check the relationship between CCTV and the crime rate as a way to lower the crime rate, and to identify the correlation between areas without CCTV and areas without CCTV. If you see a crime that can happen at any time, I think you should use a random forest algorithm. We also plan to use machine learning random forest algorithms to reduce the risk of overfitting, reduce the required training time, and verify high-level accuracy. The goal is to identify the relationship between CCTV and crime occurrence by creating a crime prevention algorithm using machine learning random forest techniques. Assuming that no crime occurs without CCTV, it compares the crime rate between the areas where the most crimes occur and the areas where there are no crimes, and predicts areas where there are many crimes. The impact of CCTV on crime prevention and arrest can be interpreted as a comprehensive effect in part, and the purpose isto identify areas and frequency of frequent crimes by comparing the time and time without CCTV.

A study of improved ways of the predicted probability to criminal types (범죄유형별 범죄발생 예측확률을 높일 수 있는 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Young-Suk;Kim, Jin-Mook;Park, Koo-Rack
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2012
  • Modern society, various great strength crimes are producing. After all crimes happen, it is most important that prevent crime beforehand than that cope. So, many research studied to prevent various crime. However, existing method of studies are to analyze and prevent by society and psychological factors. Therefore we wishes to achieve research to forecast crime by time using Markov chain method. We embody modelling for crime occurrence estimate by crime type time using crime occurrence number of item data that is collected about 5 great strength offender strength, murder, rape, moderation, violence. And examined propriety of crime occurrence estimate modelling by time that propose in treatise that compare crime occurrence type crime occurrence estimate price and actuality occurrence value. Our proposed crime occurrence estimate techniques studied to apply maximum value by critcal value about great strength crime such as strength, murder, rape etc. actually, and heighten crime occurrence estimate probability by using way to apply mean value about remainder crime in this paper. So, we wish to more study about wide crime case and as the crime occurrence estimate rate and actuality value by time are different in crime type hereafter applied examples investigating.

The Effects of Urban Park and Vegetation on Crime in Seoul and Its Planning Implication to CPTED (CPTED 요소로써 서울시 공원·녹지의 효과와 계획적 함의)

  • Cho, Min-gyun;Park, Chan;Jang, Jeong-in
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2018
  • In the mandatory application of the CPTED, only negative parts of urban parks and vegetation were reflected. Therefore, this study tries to present the positive effects of urban parks and vegetation. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the effects of urban parks and vegetation on crime occurrence and to suggest the planning implications of this to CPTED based on theory related to crime, environmental psychology, and crime occurrence analysis. This study used the crime occurrence data of Seoul, NDVI, population, distance from urban park, floating population, and the like. This study collected data from the Statistics Korea, the local government, and Landsat 8 satellite images provided by the USGS and created data of environmental variables and social variables by district using ArcGIS and statistical program. Literature analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis, and geographically weighted regression were used to determine the relationship between crime occurrence and environmental variables, and to discuss its implication. It was found that crime occurrence has a relationship with the total population (${\beta}=.663$), the number of amusement facilities (${\beta}=.447$) and the area of a police station jurisdiction (${\beta}=.395$). This confirms that a crime rate is low when the floating population is large (${\beta}=-.241$) and vegetation vitality is high (NDVI, ${\beta}=-.281$). Vegetation vitality (NDVI) is effective in lowering violence through psychological stabilization, strengthening territoriality and improving regional image. The implications for the allocation of urban park and vegetation, program and management plan of urban park and vegetation to reduce crime occurrence have therefore been presented.

Artificial-Neural-Network-based Night Crime Prediction Model Considering Environmental Factors

  • Lee, Juwon;Jeong, Yongwook;Jung, Sungwon
    • Architectural research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2022
  • As the occurrence of a crime is dependent on different factors, their correlations are beyond the ordinary cognitive range. Owing to this limitation, systems face difficulty in correlating various factors, thereby requiring the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to overcome such limitations. Therefore, AI has become indispensable for crime prediction. Crimes can cause severe and irrevocable damage to a society. Recently, big data has been introduced for developing highly accurate models for crime prediction. Prediction of night crimes should be given significant consideration, because crimes primarily occur during nights, when the spatiotemporal characteristics become vulnerable to crimes. Many environmental factors that influence crime rate are applied for crime prediction, and their influence on crime rate may differ based on temporal characteristics and the nature of crime. This study aims to identify the environmental factors that influence sex and theft crimes occurring at night and proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict sex and theft crimes at night in random areas. The crime data of A district in Seoul for 12 years (2004-2015) was used, and environmental factors that influence sex and theft crimes were derived through multiple regression analysis. Two types of crime prediction models were developed: Type A using all environmental factors as input data; Type B with only the significant factors (obtained from regression analysis) as input data. The Type B model exhibited a greater accuracy than Type A, by 3.26 and 9.47 % higher for theft and sex crimes, respectively.

A Probability Modeling of the Crime Occurrence and Risk Probability Map Generation based on the Urban Spatial Information (도시공간정보 기반의 범죄발생 확률 모형 및 위험도 확률지도 생성)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyun;Park, Koo-Rack
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.207-215
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    • 2009
  • Recently, the research of the analysis of the crime spatial is increased by using the computer information technology and GIS (Geometric Information System) in order to prevent the urban crime so as to increase the urbanization rate. In this paper, a probability map formed by the raster is organized by the quantification of crime risk per the cell using the region property of the urban spatial information in the static environment. Also, a map of the risk probability is constructed based on the relative risk by the region property, the relative risk by the facility, the relative risk by the woody plant and the river, and so on. And, this integrated risk probability map is calculated by averaging the individual cell risk applied to the climatic influence and the seasonal factor. And, a probability map of the overall risk is generated by the interpretation key of the crime occurrence relative risk index, and so, this information is applied to the probability map quantifying the occurrence crime pattern. And so, in this paper, a methodology of the modeling and the simulation that this crime risk probability map is modified according to the passage of time are proposed.

A Study on the Influence of the Space Syntax and the Urban Characteristics on the Incidence of Crime Using Negative Binomial Regression (음이항 회귀모형을 이용한 공간구문론 및 도시특성요소가 범죄발생에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeong Jun;Choi, Yeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.333-340
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    • 2016
  • The aim of this study is to specifically understand the characteristics of the crime by empirical analysis for the determining factors that affect determining the crime through the space syntax in Busan. In this study, poisson regression and negative binomial regression were used for accurate analysis. 8 variables that were significant of the total 13 variables. The summary if this study based on the results is as follow. Statistically significant variables are female ratio, over 65 population ratio, administration are and commercial area ratio in characteristics. And the more CCTVs a region has, the lower crime rate it shows. As a results of examing whether space syntax variables can predict crime occurrence places. Space with low connectivity come to be a crime causal factor because they have few other related spaces and thereby have low possibility of sudden appearance of interrupters, which results in low surveillance levels of foot passengers. It will provide the basic data that can contribute to urban planning and implementation of crime prevention aspects.

The Relationship between Security Industry, Crime Occurrence and Arrest (시큐리티산업과 범죄 발생 및 검거의 관계)

  • Joo, Il-Yeob;Cho, Kwang-Rae
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.13
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    • pp.487-505
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    • 2007
  • This study is to examine relations between the number of occurrence of big five critical crimes that consist of homicide, robbery, rape, theft, violence and the number of the security companies and the security guards, and between the number of the security companies, the security guards and the number of arrests from the big five critical crimes. To achieve this objective, this research selects a subject of study, the number of the security companies and security guards, and the number of occurrences of the big five critical crimes and arrests of the big five crimes from 1990 to 2005. The selected data are then analyzed according to the variables using SPSS 12.0. Each hypothesis is verified with the level of significance ${\alpha}$=.05 using the statistical techniques such as Correlation Analysis, Regression Analysis, etc. The following is the result of the study: First, the number of occurrences of the big five critical crimes affects the number of the security companies at a significant level. Second, the number of the security companies affects the number of arrests of the big five crime at a significant level.

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A Study on Voice Phishing Countermeasures of the Police (보이스피싱에 대한 경찰의 대응방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Duck-Yong
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.193-198
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    • 2018
  • In Korea, the penetration rate of Internet, telephone and smart devices is reaching the highest level in the world. Cyber financial crimes that exploit such infrastructures continue to evolve. Since the first Voice Phishing crime in May 2006, ten years later, there has been a constant occurrence of Voice Phishing crime. Voice Phishing is a crime in which a victim is phoned for false information to figure out the victim's account number and password. This method of Voice Phishing evolves day by day, and it is difficult to investigate. Most of Voice Phishing is a form of international organized crime that is based in Southeast Asia such as China, and it is not easy to eradicate by international cooperation investigation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the actual situation and case analysis of Voice Phishing crime, and to propose the countermeasures against police Voice Phishing counterplan.

Study of Occurrence Tendency and Cause Analysis of Arson (방화의 발생추이와 원인분석)

  • 김동현;김광일
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.27-33
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    • 1998
  • Arson is one of the serious crime. It shows high increasing rate compared with the past, and the causes of arson are getting diversified and specialized in this modern society. In this thesis, the actual state and tendency of arson during latest 5 years have been analyzed on the basis of 'crime analysis' which is material of the National Police Agency. Based on the above analyzed material, measures for arson in foreign countries are examined and necessary matters to counter arson in Korea are inferred.

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