• Title/Summary/Keyword: Crime Forecasting

Search Result 6, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Classification Model and Crime Occurrence City Forecasting Based on Random Forest Algorithm

  • KANG, Sea-Am;CHOI, Jeong-Hyun;KANG, Min-soo
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.21-25
    • /
    • 2022
  • Korea has relatively less crime than other countries. However, the crime rate is steadily increasing. Many people think the crime rate is decreasing, but the crime arrest rate has increased. The goal is to check the relationship between CCTV and the crime rate as a way to lower the crime rate, and to identify the correlation between areas without CCTV and areas without CCTV. If you see a crime that can happen at any time, I think you should use a random forest algorithm. We also plan to use machine learning random forest algorithms to reduce the risk of overfitting, reduce the required training time, and verify high-level accuracy. The goal is to identify the relationship between CCTV and crime occurrence by creating a crime prevention algorithm using machine learning random forest techniques. Assuming that no crime occurs without CCTV, it compares the crime rate between the areas where the most crimes occur and the areas where there are no crimes, and predicts areas where there are many crimes. The impact of CCTV on crime prevention and arrest can be interpreted as a comprehensive effect in part, and the purpose isto identify areas and frequency of frequent crimes by comparing the time and time without CCTV.

A Study on Construction of Crime Prevention System using Big Data in Korea (한국에서 빅데이터를 활용한 범죄예방시스템 구축을 위한 연구)

  • Kim, SungJun
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
    • /
    • v.17 no.5
    • /
    • pp.217-221
    • /
    • 2017
  • Proactive prevention is important for crime. Past crimes have focused on coping after death and punishing them. But with Big Data technology, crime can be prevented spontaneously. Big data can predict the behavior of criminals or potential criminals. This article discusses how to build a big data system for crime prevention. Specifically, it deals with the way to combine unstructured data of big data with basic form data, and as a result, designs crime prevention system. Through this study, it is expected that the possibility of using big data for crime prevention is described through fingerprints, and it is expected to help crime prevention program and research in future.

A Case Study on Crime Prediction using Time Series Models (시계열 모형을 이용한 범죄예측 사례연구)

  • Joo, Il-Yeob
    • Korean Security Journal
    • /
    • no.30
    • /
    • pp.139-169
    • /
    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to contribute to establishing the scientific policing policies through deriving the time series models that can forecast the occurrence of major crimes such as murder, robbery, burglary, rape, violence and identifying the occurrence of major crimes using the models. In order to achieve this purpose, there were performed the statistical methods such as Generation of Time Series Model(C) for identifying the forecasting models of time series, Generation of Time Series Model(C) and Sequential Chart of Time Series(N) for identifying the accuracy of the forecasting models of time series on the monthly incidence of major crimes from 2002 to 2010 using IBM PASW(SPSS) 19.0. The following is the result of the study. First, murder, robbery, rape, theft and violence crime's forecasting models of time series are Simple Season, Winters Multiplicative, ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1), ARIMA(1,1,0 )(0,1,1) and Simple Season. Second, it is possible to forecast the short-term's occurrence of major crimes such as murder, robbery, burglary, rape, violence using the forecasting models of time series. Based on the result of this study, we have to suggest various forecasting models of time series continuously, and have to concern the long-term forecasting models of time series which is based on the quarterly, yearly incidence of major crimes.

  • PDF

An Effective Data Model for Forecasting and Analyzing Securities Data

  • Lee, Seung Ho;Shin, Seung Jung
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.32-39
    • /
    • 2016
  • Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence (AI), and a technology that collects, forecasts, and analyzes securities data is developed upon machine learning. The difference between using machine learning and not using machine learning is that machine learning-seems similar to big data-studies and collects data by itself which big data cannot do. Machine learning can be utilized, for example, to recognize a certain pattern of an object and find a criminal or a vehicle used in a crime. To achieve similar intelligent tasks, data must be more effectively collected than before. In this paper, we propose a method of effectively collecting data.

Big Data Strategies for Government, Society and Policy-Making

  • LEE, Jung Wan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.7
    • /
    • pp.475-487
    • /
    • 2020
  • The paper aims to facilitate a discussion around how big data technologies and data from citizens can be used to help public administration, society, and policy-making to improve community's lives. This paper discusses opportunities and challenges of big data strategies for government, society, and policy-making. It employs the presentation of numerous practical examples from different parts of the world, where public-service delivery has seen transformation and where initiatives have been taken forward that have revolutionized the way governments at different levels engage with the citizens, and how governments and civil society have adopted evidence-driven policy-making through innovative and efficient use of big data analytics. The examples include the governments of the United States, China, the United Kingdom, and India, and different levels of government agencies in the public services of fraud detection, financial market analysis, healthcare and public health, government oversight, education, crime fighting, environmental protection, energy exploration, agriculture, weather forecasting, and ecosystem management. The examples also include smart cities in Korea, China, Japan, India, Canada, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. This paper makes some recommendations about how big data strategies transform the government and public services to become more citizen-centric, responsive, accountable and transparent.

Forecasting the Occurrence of Voice Phishing using the ARIMA Model (ARIMA 모형을 이용한 보이스피싱 발생 추이 예측)

  • Jung-Ho Choo;Yong-Hwi Joo;Jung-Ho Eom
    • Convergence Security Journal
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.79-86
    • /
    • 2022
  • Voice phishing is a cyber crime in which fake financial institutions, the Public Prosecutor's Office, and the National Police Agency are impersonated to find out an individual's Certification number and credit card number or withdraw a deposit. Recently, voice phishing has been carried out in a subtle and secret way. Analyzing the trend of voice phishing that occurred in '18~'21, it was found that there is a seasonality that occurs rapidly at a time when the movement of money is intensifying in the trend of voice phishing, giving ambiguity to time series analysis. In this research, we adjusted seasonality using the X-12 seasonality adjustment methodology for accurate prediction of voice phishing occurrence trends, and predicted the occurrence of voice phishing in 2022 using the ARIMA model.