• Title/Summary/Keyword: Credit Rating

Search Result 172, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

The Hybrid Systems for Credit Rating

  • Goo, Han-In;Jo, Hong-Kyuo;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.163-173
    • /
    • 1997
  • Although numerous studies demonstrate that one technique outperforms the others for a given data set, it is hard to tell a priori which of these techniques will be the most effective to solve a specific problem. It has been suggested that the better approach to classification problem might be to integrate several different forecasting techniques by combining their results. The issues of interest are how to integrate different modeling techniques to increase the predictive performance. This paper proposes the post-model integration method, which tries to find the best combination of the results provided by individual techniques. To get the optimal or near optimal combination of different prediction techniques, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are applied, which are particularly suitable for multi-parameter optimization problems with an object function subject to numerous hard and soft constraints. This study applies three individual classification techniques (Discriminant analysis, Logit model and Neural Networks) as base models for the corporate failure prediction. The results of composite predictions are compared with the individual models. Preliminary results suggests that the use of integrated methods improve the performance of business classification.

  • PDF

Integrated Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Model Using Genetic Algorithms (유전자 알고리즘 기반의 기업부실예측 통합모형)

  • Ok, Joong-Kyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.15 no.4
    • /
    • pp.99-121
    • /
    • 2009
  • Recently, there have been many studies that predict corporate bankruptcy using data mining techniques. Although various data mining techniques have been investigated, some researchers have tried to combine the results of each data mining technique in order to improve classification performance. In this study, we classify 4 types of data mining techniques via their characteristics and select representative techniques of each type then combine them using a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm may find optimal or near-optimal solution because it is a global optimization technique. This study compares the results of single models, typical combination models, and the proposed integration model using the genetic algorithm.

  • PDF

Determinants of Retail Banking Efficiency: A Case of Vietcombank Branches in the Mekong-Delta Region

  • LE, Thi Thu Diem
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.7
    • /
    • pp.439-451
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study focused on researching the factors affecting retail banking efficiency of Vietcombank branches in the Mekong-Delta region. By collecting data from financial statements from 15 branches of VCB in the Mekong-Delta Region between 2015 and 2018, the paper applies DEA estimation to measure the effectiveness of retail banking activities and uses the Tobit regression model to identify factors affecting retail banking efficiency. The results demonstrate that the retail banking efficiency of branches averaged 52.5% during the period. The rating result shows the branches in An Giang, Can Tho, Dong Thap, Kien Giang, Long An, Phu Quoc and Tra Noc rank at the top technical efficiency. In group of medium efficiency, there are branches in Soc Trang, Tien Giang and Vinh Long. In the category of the poor efficiency are the branches in Bac Lieu, Ben Tre, Ca Mau, Chau Doc and Tra Vinh. The results also show that bank scale-related factors, capital adequacy, credit quality, time specific and region impact significantly the retail banking efficiency. The research not, only contributes to enriching the empirical research method but also is significant for the management activities in business developing strategies, improving the operational efficiency of Vietcombank in the region.

General Disaster Scattered Action Research -Focusing On the Construction Site Accident Cases- (일반재해 발생시 산재처리 방안연구 -건설현장 사고사례를 중심으로-)

  • Yoo, Yong Tae;Kang, Kyung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.23-33
    • /
    • 2015
  • Recently, the Ministry of Employment and Labor Management is a trend to strengthen all men death rate than the accident rate. Points reduction in the accident rate change orders related to credit rating score to +2 points in his plans as part of +1 point. In addition, according to the fancy linger RISK treatment in the event of a disaster site and fiction treatment to achieve accident-free during processing the scene interspersed with equity issues have been raised. In general disaster for the problem in the first two cases occurs when abnormal process according to the disaster site manager positions dismissal policy, each division headquarters itself, interspersed disasters performance compared to processing in accordance with the refrain, processing expenses in accordance with the composition of untreated industrial accident, costs and burdens partners FTC, there is a possibility that the issues raised, such as the Ministry of Employment and Labor. In response to domestic social practices focused on the construction site practices and prevention measures should be evaluated with respect to what.

Reliable and Advanced Predictors for Corporate Financial Choices in Pakistan

  • SHAHZAD, Umeair;FUKAI, Luo;MAHMOOD, Faisal;JING, Liu;AHMED, Zahoor
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.7
    • /
    • pp.73-84
    • /
    • 2020
  • Existing studies disagree over the core predictors of firm-level financial choices in developing countries. The general practice only validates the traditional capital structure model, which leads to inconsistency and a lack of novelty. This study removed overfitting issues among existing factors and presented the most reliable and advanced capital structure model in Pakistani firms. The panel data include 368 Pakistani companies from 19 non-financial sectors over the period 2004 to 2017. We apply Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria to remove overfitting issues among inconsistent proxies in the capital structure model. The fixed effects regression is used for basic results and the Generalized Method of Moments is applied to control the endogeneity. Besides the conventional proxies, we report that credit rating, distance from bankruptcy, managerial concentration, and institutional quality are the most advanced capital structure determinants in Pakistan. These predictors remain significant across firm size and growth levels. Also, the findings confirm that new predictors are reliable to define capital structure dynamics and improve the speed of adjustment in overall and sub-sample analysis. The major findings suggest that managers and policymakers should consider these advanced predictors to design their financial settings in firms.

Determinants of Financial Information Disclosure: An Empirical Study in Vietnam's Stock Market

  • PHAM, Thu Thi Bich
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.73-81
    • /
    • 2022
  • The focus of the research is to determine the amount of financial information disclosure and the factors that influence it for non-financial enterprises listed on Vietnam's stock exchange. To evaluate the level of financial information disclosure, the study uses a set of disclosure indexes from the world's leading credit rating agency, Standard and Poor's (S&P). It makes some revisions in compliance with regulations for information disclosure on the Vietnam stock market. The study collects data in the form of annual reports for the year 2017-2020 from 350 non-financial firms listed on Vietnam's stock exchange and then uses a multivariate regression model to assess the effects of factors on the amount of financial information disclosure. The findings show that the size of the firm, the size of the board of directors, and foreign ownership all have a positive impact on financial transparency; however, the number of years the company has a negative impact. According to the findings of this study, companies with more total assets, a larger board of directors, and a higher rate of foreign ownership publish more financial information. Still, long-term listed companies on the stock exchange tend to disclose less.

The Study of a Development Plan of the Industrial Security Expert System (산업보안관리사 자격제도 발전 방안에 대한 고찰)

  • Cho, Yong-Sun
    • Korean Security Journal
    • /
    • no.40
    • /
    • pp.175-207
    • /
    • 2014
  • This paper focuses on the study of a development direction of the industrial security Expert system. First of all, in order to manage Industrial security system, we need to have law, criminology, business and engineering professionals as well as IT experts, which are the multi-dimensional convergence professionals. Secondly, industrial organizations need to have workforce who can perform security strategy; security plan; security training; security services; or security system management and operations. Industrial security certification system can contribute to cultivate above mentioned professional workforce. Currently Industrial Security Expert(ISE) is a private qualification. However, the author argued that it have to be changed to national qualification. In addition, it is necessary that the system should be given credibility with verifying the personnel whether they are proper or not in the their field. In terms of quality innovation, it is also necessary that distinguish the levels of utilization of rating system of the industrial security coordinator through a long-term examination. With respect to grading criteria, we could consider the requirements as following: whether they must hold the degree of the industrial security-related areas of undergraduate or postgraduate (or to be); what or how many industrial security-related courses they should complete through a credit bank system. If the plan of completing certain industrial security-related credits simply through the credit bank system, without establishing a new industrial security-related department, has established, then industrial security study would be spreaded and advanced. For private certification holders, the problem of the qualification succeeding process is important matter. Additionally, it is necessary to introduce the certifying system of ISMS(Industrial Security Management System) which is a specialized system for protecting industrial technology. To sum up, when the industrial security management system links the industrial security management certification, industrial security would realize in the companies and research institutions dealing with national key technology. Then, a group synergy effect would occurs.

  • PDF

Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.29-45
    • /
    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

Analysis of Important Indicators of TCB Using GBM (일반화가속모형을 이용한 기술신용평가 주요 지표 분석)

  • Jeon, Woo-Jeong(Michael);Seo, Young-Wook
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.159-173
    • /
    • 2017
  • In order to provide technical financial support to small and medium-sized venture companies based on technology, the government implemented the TCB evaluation, which is a kind of technology rating evaluation, from the Kibo and a qualified private TCB. In this paper, we briefly review the current state of TCB evaluation and available indicators related to technology evaluation accumulated in the Korea Credit Information Services (TDB), and then use indicators that have a significant effect on the technology rating score. Multiple regression techniques will be explored. And the relative importance and classification accuracy of the indicators were calculated by applying the key indicators as independent features applied to the generalized boosting model, which is a representative machine learning classifier, as the class influence and the fitness of each model. As a result of the analysis, it was analyzed that the relative importance between the two models was not significantly different. However, GBM model had more weight on the InnoBiz certification, R&D department, patent registration and venture confirmation indicators than regression model.

The effect of interaction between internationalization and strategic pursuance on the use of foreign currency denominated debt: in the context of Korean MNEs

  • Kim, Soonsung;Chung, Jaiho;Cho, Myeong-Hyeon
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
    • /
    • v.6 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-15
    • /
    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study investigates the effect of MNEs' characteristics on the use of foreign currency denominated debt in the context of Korean firms. This study examines the relationship between MNEs and the use of foreign debt focusing on the accessibility to the capital market in addition to the motive of hedging against foreign exchange exposure. Research design and methodology - Probit estimation is employed for estimating significant factors in determination of the use of foreign debt by firms. The dependent variable is a dummy variable to indicate whether a firm uses foreign debt or not at the end of 2004. Independent variables include foreign subsidiaries ratio, export to sale, R&D expenditure to sale, and credit rating. Results - The results show that the interaction between the level of internationalization represented by intra-regional diversification and the strategic characteristics embedded in the region of entry affects the use of foreign debt. In case of a high level of diversification within the developing region with a strong pursuit of asset exploitation, MNEs are more likely to use foreign debt, whereas a high level of diversification within the developed region with a strong pursuit of asset seeking, MNEs are less likely to use foreign debt. Conclusions - The differences between MNEs in terms of intra-regional diversification, strategic orientation, and the accessibility to capital markets as well as the hedging motive affect the use of foreign debt.