• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.63-71
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• 2013

The estimation of occupant injury risk at crash accident is one of the most important assessments for the vehicle crashworthiness performance. The design of safety devices such as occupant restraining system also depend on the kinematics of occupant and its injury risk. The real world in-depth accident investigation provides detailed and realistic information of vehicle damage and occupant injury as well as the accident conditions. This paper introduces a statistical analysis of NASS/CDS database and domestic accident data to correlate speed change, vehicle damage extend, and occupant injury at frontal crash. The maximum crush extend shows a linear relationship with the effective impact speed. The injury risks of the occupant with and without restraining were also respectively quantified with the crush extend. This result can be effectively used for the emergent rescue of crash victims with automatic crash notification system.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.51-58
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• 2019

Purpose - Prior studies reported that the opacity of information caused stock price crash. If managers fail to disclose unfavorable information about the firm over a long period of time, the stock price is overvalued compared to its original value. If the accumulated information reaches a critical point and spreads quickly to the market, the stock price plunges. Information management by management's disclosure policy can cause information uncertainty, which will lead to a plunge in stock prices in the future. Thus, this study aims at examining the impact of disclosure quality on crash risk by focusing on the unfaithful disclosure firms. Research design, data, and methodology - This study covers firms listed on KOSPI and KOSDAQ from 2004 to 2013. Firms excluded from the sample are non-December firms, capital-eroding firms, and financial firms. The financial data used in the research was extracted from the KIS-Value and TS2000 database. Unfaithful disclosure firm designation data was collected from the Korea Exchange's electronic disclosure system (kind.krx.co.kr). Stock crash is measured as a dummy variable that equals one if a firm experiences at least one crash week over the fiscal year, and zero otherwise. Results - Empirical results as to the relation between unfaithful disclosure corporation designation and stock price crashes are as follows: There was a significant positive association between unfaithful disclosure corporation designation and stock price crash. This result supports the hypothesis that firms that have previously exhibited unfaithful disclosure behavior are more likely to suffer stock price plunges due to information asymmetry. Second, stock price crashes due to unfaithful disclosures are more likely to occur in Chaebol firms. Conclusions - While previous studies used estimates as a proxy for information opacity, this study used an objective measure such as unfaithful disclosure corporation designation. The designation by Korea Exchange is an objective evidence that the firm attempted to conceal and distort information in the previous year. The results of this study suggest that capital market investors need to investigate firms' disclosure behaviors.

• 자동차안전학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.8-14
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• 2015

The objective of this study was to construct the spring-mass models for the car-to-car frontal impact crash. The SISAME software was utilized to extract the spring-mass models using the data from US-NCAP frontal crash tests. The spring-mass models of a compact car and a midsize car could effectively approximate the crash characteristics for the full frontal barrier impact and the car-to-car frontal impact scenarios. Compared to the barrier crash tests, the dummy injuries of midsize car decreased, while the dummy injuries of compact car increased, under the frontal car-to-car crash circumstances.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.31-37
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• 2010

In proportion to increasing interest in vehicle safety, many country have regulated vehicle safety and performed NCAP(New Car Assessment Program). However vehicles which had good results in these compliance and NCAP frontal crash test have caused problems such as the fork effect and over-riding in real car-to-car accidents. To complement these issues, new frontal crash test modes using new barrier like FWDB and PDB have been developed by EEVC WG15. In this paper, FWDB frontal crash test was performed and the result was compared with the full frontal crash test using the rigid wall in order to comprehend the characteristic of FWDB. The results of FWDB test were compared with one of USNCAP and KNCAP. Using USNCAP data, vehicle performance like deformation and wall force were studied. A comparative study of dummy injuries was made by using KNCAP result. The results showed that vehicle performance of FWDB test like displacement and effective acceleration was similar in spite of absorbing energy of FWDB due to the greater vehicle deformation of rigid wall test. In FWDB test, driver dummy head bottomed out but most of injuries were superior to the injury of rigid wall test.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.47-55
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• 2021

항공기의 비정상적인 착륙 상황에서도 조종사의 생존을 보장하고 탈출에 방해되지 않도록 구조물이 설계되어야 한다. 추락 시, 화재의 원인을 찾는 연구를 시작으로 과거 수많은 고정익 항공기 추락시험이 수행되었다. 동역학적 분석을 통한 구조물의 거동특성을 이해하고, 가속도 상태에서 인체의 허용한계를 조사하여 적절한 추락하중배수가 설정되었다. 또한 화물기 사고 데이터를 확률론적 방법으로 분석하여 승객의 안전과 운용비용이 합리적으로 반영된 화물고정용 추락하중배수도 제시되었다. 과거 사례를 바탕으로 현재 적용되고 있는 추락하중배수의 물리적, 의학적, 경제적 의미를 살펴 보았다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.103-111
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• 2011

유사한 특성을 갖는 지점 (또는 구간)들에서 연속되고 동일한 시간 간격 동안 관측된 패널 (panel) 교통사고 자료를 시간의 흐름에 따라 비교분석하여 분석지점의 기대교통사고건수를 추정하는 과정은 교통안전 개선사업의 효과 평가와 교통안전 개선사업 수행의 우선순위 결정과 같은 교통안전연구의 핵심이다. 패널 교통사고 자료를 이용한 기대교통사고건수 추정기법은 관측교통사고건수 기반 기법과 경험적 베이지안 기법으로 대별할 수 있으며, 본 연구에서는 시간의 흐름에 따른 기대교통사고건수의 변화 여부와 다양한 패널 교통사고 자료 구조에 따라 전술한 두 가지 기법의 추정오차를 모의실험을 통해 비교 분석하였다. 분석결과 시간의 흐름에 따른 기대교통사고건수의 변화 여부와 패널교통사고자료 구조의 특성과 관계없이 관측교통사고건수 기반 추정치인 평균 관측교통사고건수와 평행비교 추정치의 추정오차는 경험적 베이즈 추정치의 추정오차보다 항상 크게 나타나 향후 패널교통 사고자료를 이용한 교통안전 연구 수행 시 경험적 베이지안 추정기법의 적용이 필요하다고 판단된다. 한편 시간의 흐름에 따라 기대교통 사고건수가 변화하지 않을 경우 분석기간이 늘어날수록 두 가지 기법의 추정오차는 모두 현저하게 감소하는 것으로 분석되어, 현재 국내의 교통사고 잦은 곳 선정 연구에서 기준치로 사용되고 있는 분석기간인 "1년"을 연장하여 보다 효율적으로 시간 불변 기대교통사고건수를 추정할 필요가 있다고 판단된다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.133-143
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• 2012

PURPOSES: Using the collected data for crash, traffic volume, and design elements on ramps between 2007 and 2009, this research effort was initiated to develop traffic crash prediction models for expressway ramps. METHODS: Three negative binomial regression models and three zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were developed for individual ramp types, including direct, semi-direct and loop, respectively. For validating the developed models, authors compared the estimated crash frequencies with actual crash frequencies of twelve randomly selected interchanges, the ramps of which have not been used for model developing. RESULTS: The results show that the negative binomial regression models for direct, semi-direct and loop ramps showed 60.3%, 63.8% and 48.7% error rates on average whereas the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models showed 82.1%, 120.4% and 57.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Conclusively, the negative binomial regression models worked better in traffic crash prediction than the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models for estimating the frequency of traffic accidents on expressway ramps.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.49-55
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• 2018

Purpose - This paper examines the effect of related party transactions on crash firm-specific stock price crash risk. Ownership of a typical Korean conglomerate is concentrated in a single family. In those entities, management and board positions are often filled by family members. Therefore, a dominant shareholder can benefit from related party transactions. In Korea, firms have to report related party transactions in financial statement footnotes. However, those are not disclosed in detail. The more related party transactions are the greater information risk. Thus, companies with related party transactions are likely to experience stock price crashes. Research design, data, and methodology - 2,598 firm-year observations are used for the main analysis. Those samples are from TS2000 database from 2009 to 2013, and the database covers KOSPI-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for related party transactions (RTP) is calculated by dividing total transactions to the related-party by total sales. A dummy variable is used as a dependent variable (CRASH) in the regression model. Logistic regression is used to explain the relationship between related party transactions and crash risk. Then, the sample was separated into two groups; tunneling firms and propping firms. The relation between related party transactions and crash risk variances with features of the transaction were investigated. Results - Using a sample of KOSPI-listed firms in TS2000 database for the period of 2009-2013, I find that stock price crash risk increases as the trade volume of related-party transactions increases. Specifically, I find that the coefficient of RPT is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. In addition, this relationship is strong and robust in tunneling firms. Conclusions - The results report that firms with related party transactions are more likely to experience stock price crashes. The results mean that related party transactions increase the possibility of future stock price crashes by enlarging information asymmetry between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders. In case of tunneling, it could be seen that related party transactions are positively associated with stock crash risk. The result implies that the characteristic of the transaction influences crash risk. This study is related to a literature that investigates the effect of related party transactions on the stock market.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.87-93
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper investigates whether managerial overconfidence is associated with firm-specific crash risk. Overconfidence leads managers to overestimate the returns of their investment projects, and misperceive negative net present value projects as value creating. They even use voluntary disclosures to convey their optimistic beliefs about the firms' long-term prospects to the stock market. Thus, the overconfidence bias can lead to managerial bad news hoarding behavior. When bad news accumulates and crosses some tipping point, it will come out all at once, resulting in a stock price crash. Research design, data and methodology - 7,385 firm-years used for the main analysis are from the KIS Value database between 2006 and 2013. This database covers KOSPI-listed and KOSDAQ-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for overconfidence is based on excess investment in assets. A residual from the regression of total asset growth on sales growth run by industry-year is used as an independent variable. If a firm has at least one crash week during a year, it is referred to as a high crash risk firm. The dependant variable is a dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm is a high crash risk firm, and zero otherwise. After explaining the relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk, the total sample was divided into two sub-samples; chaebol firms and non-chaebol firms. The relation between how I overconfidence and crash risk varies with business group affiliation was investigated. Results - The results showed that managerial overconfidence is positively related to crash risk. Specifically, the coefficient of OVERC is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. The results are strong and robust in non-chaebol firms. Conclusions - The results show that firms with overconfident managers are likely to experience stock price crashes. This study is related to past literature that examines the impact of managerial overconfidence on the stock market. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether overconfidence can explain a firm's future crashes.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제8권6호
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• pp.259-266
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• 2000

Crash test data from different impact modes and threshold speeds were used to assess the effects of impact conditions on air bag electronic single point sensing (ESPS) activation requirements. The requirements are expressed in terms of the desired sensor activation time based on unbelted driver dummy kinematics. A crash discriminator pre-displacement is introduced to crash recognition algorithm to the ESPS. The new crash recognition algorithm named Velocity Energy Pre-displacement(VEPD) method is developed and the ESPS algorithm based on the VEPD technique is used to assess the ESPS system performance. It is shown that VEPD method correlates very well with desired sensor activation time and meets the activation requirement.