• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cox proportional Hazard model

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Leverage and Corporate Failure: Analysis of Leverage Impact according to Company Size through Survival Analysis (레버리지와 기업실패: 생존분석을 응용한 기업규모에 따른 레버리지 영향분석)

  • Kim, Bong-Min;Kim, Byoung-Gon;Kim, Dong-Wook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.275-284
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    • 2021
  • Survival analysis was used to analyze whether there is a difference in the effect of leverage on corporate failure according to the firm size. A total of 25,250 (year-company) companies listed on the Korea Stock Exchange and KOSDAQ market from 1999 to 2019 were analyzed. First, the increase in leverage generally acts as a factor that increases the possibility of corporate failure. On the other hand, the increase in the trade payable ratio lowered the possibility of failure of the company. The increase in corporate trade payable was perceived as a factor in reducing the possibility of corporate failure because it was considered the active development of business activities or active use of interest-free debt rather than leading to an increase in corporate risk. Second, a higher leverage ratio and trade payable ratio in large firms lowered the possibility of corporate failure. In the SMEs, all types of leverage increases are a factor that increases corporate failure. Overall, the effect of leverage on corporate failure differs according to the size of the company.

Trade Payable and Corporate Failure: Analysis of Trade Payable Impact according to Company Size through Survival Analysis (매입채무와 기업실패: 생존분석을 응용한 기업규모에 따른 매입채무 영향분석)

  • Kim, Bong-Min;Kim, So Ra
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.283-290
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    • 2021
  • Survival analysis was used to determine whether there are differences in the impact of trade payables on business failure according to the size of the company. A total of 41,781 firms from 1999 to 2019 were analyzed. The analysis period was divided into the entire period and before and after the financial crisis. The trade payable ratio is a proxy variable. The increase in trade payables over the entire period increases the possibility of business failure of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). However, in large firms, a significant relationship between the increase in the trade payable ratio and the possibility of corporate failure could not be confirmed. Second, in SMEs during the sub-periods of 1999-2007 and 2009-2019, it was found that an increase in trade payables acts as a factor that increases the possibility of corporate failure. However, in large corporations, the increase in trade payables in the period from 2009 to 2019 has been shown to reduce the rate of failure. An increase in trade payables is recognized as the active development of business activities or the active use of interest-free debt. Therefore, it was confirmed that the impact of trade payables on corporate failure differs depending on the size of the company.

A study on the change in the business closure rate before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 using survival analysis - Focused on Gangnam-gu, Seoul and Suseong-gu, Daegu (코로나19 발생 전후 상권 생존율 변화 분석 - 서울 강남구와 대구 수성구를 중심으로)

  • Park, Jinbaek;Kim, Minseop
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.121-126
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the survival rate of commercial districts before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 by analyzing Gangnam-gu, Seoul and Suseong-gu, Daegu as independent regions, although the background and distribution of commercial districts are similar. In the basic analysis, the size of the commercial districts was much larger in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, but it was confirmed that the distribution by industry was similar. In both regions, there were more openings than closings before the outbreak of COVID-19 in common, but as the COVID-19 outbreak occurred, the closure ratio of businesses centered on face-to-face services increased significantly. As a result of the survival analysis, it was analyzed that most industries were indifferent to the risk of closure of private institutes before Corona 19, but after the outbreak of Corona 19, it was confirmed that the risk of closure of private institutes increased, especially in Daegu, which was the initial spread of Corona 19. As a result of comparing the survival rate between regions, it was analyzed that the risk of business closure in Gangnam-gu increased relatively after the outbreak of Corona 19, confirming that the contraction in the commercial area of Seoul with a large floating population was greater.

Risk factors for cancer-specific survival in elderly gastric cancer patients after curative gastrectomy

  • Liu, Xiao;Xue, Zhigang;Yu, Jianchun;Ma, Zhiqiang;Kang, Weiming;Ye, Xin;Li, Zijian
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.604-615
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    • 2022
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate cancer-specific survival (CSS) and associated risk factors in elderly gastric cancer (EGC) patients. SUBJECTS/METHODS: EGC patients (≥ 70 yrs) who underwent curative gastrectomy between January 2013 and December 2017 at our hospital were included. Clinicopathologic characteristics and survival data were collected. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to extract the best cutoff point for body mass index (BMI). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the risk factors for CSS. RESULTS: In total, 290 EGC patients were included, with a median age of 74.7 yrs. The median follow-up time was 31 (1-77) mon. The postoperative 1-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr CSS rates were 93.7%, 75.9% and 65.1%, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed risk factors for CSS, including age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.15), intensive care unit (ICU) admission (HR = 1.73; 95% CI, 1.08-2.79), nutritional risk screening (NRS 2002) score ≥ 5 (HR = 2.33; 95% CI, 1.49-3.75), and preoperative prognostic nutrition index score < 45 (HR = 2.06; 95% CI, 1.27-3.33). The ROC curve showed that the best BMI cutoff value was 20.6 kg/m2. Multivariate analysis indicated that a BMI ≤ 20.6 kg/m2 (HR = 2.30; 95% CI, 1.36-3.87), ICU admission (HR = 1.97; 95% CI, 1.17-3.30) and TNM stage (stage II: HR = 5.56; 95% CI, 1.59-19.43; stage III: HR = 16.20; 95% CI, 4.99-52.59) were significantly associated with CSS. CONCLUSIONS: Low BMI (≤ 20.6 kg/m2), ICU admission and advanced pathological TNM stages (II and III) are independent risk factors for CSS in EGC patients after curative gastrectomy. Nutrition support, better perioperative management and early diagnosis would be helpful for better survival.

Value of Intraplaque Neovascularization on Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasonography in Predicting Ischemic Stroke Recurrence in Patients With Carotid Atherosclerotic Plaque

  • Zhe Huang;Xue-Qing Cheng;Ya-Ni Liu;Xiao-Jun Bi;You-Bin Deng
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.338-348
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    • 2023
  • Objective: Patients with a history of ischemic stroke are at risk for a second ischemic stroke. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between carotid plaque enhancement on perfluorobutane microbubble contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) and future recurrent stroke, and to determine whether plaque enhancement can contribute to risk assessment for recurrent stroke compared with the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS). Materials and Methods: This prospective study screened 151 patients with recent ischemic stroke and carotid atherosclerotic plaques at our hospital between August 2020 and December 2020. A total of 149 eligible patients underwent carotid CEUS, and 130 patients who were followed up for 15-27 months or until stroke recurrence were analyzed. Plaque enhancement on CEUS was investigated as a possible risk factor for stroke recurrence and as a possible adjunct to ESRS. Results: During follow-up, 25 patients (19.2%) experienced recurrent stroke. Patients with plaque enhancement on CEUS had an increased risk of stroke recurrence events (22/73, 30.1%) compared to those without plaque enhancement (3/57, 5.3%), with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 38.264 (95% confidence interval [CI]:14.975-97.767; P < 0.001) according to a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model analysis, indicating that the presence of carotid plaque enhancement was a significant independent predictor of recurrent stroke. When plaque enhancement was added to the ESRS, the HR for stroke recurrence in the high-risk group compared to that in the low-risk group (2.188; 95% CI, 0.025-3.388) was greater than that of the ESRS alone (1.706; 95% CI, 0.810-9.014). A net of 32.0% of the recurrence group was reclassified upward appropriately by the addition of plaque enhancement to the ESRS. Conclusion: Carotid plaque enhancement was a significant and independent predictor of stroke recurrence in patients with ischemic stroke. Furthermore, the addition of plaque enhancement improved the risk stratification capability of the ESRS.

Overall and cardiovascular mortality according to 10-year cardiovascular risk of the general health checkup: the Kangbuk Samsung Cohort Study

  • Youshik Jeong;Yesung Lee;Eunchan Mun;Eunhye Seo;Daehoon Kim;Jaehong Lee;Jinsook Jeong;Woncheol Lee
    • Annals of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
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    • v.34
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    • pp.40.1-40.9
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    • 2022
  • Background: According to the occupational accident status analysis in 2020, of 1,180 occupational deaths, 463 were caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). Workers should be assessed for CVD risk at regular intervals to prevent work-related CVD in accordance with the rules on occupational safety and health standards. However, no previous study has addressed risk and mortality. Therefore, this longitudinal study was conducted to evaluate the relationship between 10-year cardiovascular risk of the general health checkup and mortality. Methods: The study included 545,859 participants who visited Kangbuk Samsung Total Healthcare Centers from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2017. We performed 10-year cardiovascular risk assessment for the participants and the risk was divided into 4 groups (low, moderate, high, and very high). The study used death data from the Korea National Statistical Office for survival status as an outcome variable by December 31, 2019, and the cause of death based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) was identified. Statistical analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, and the sum of the periods from the first visit to the date of death or December 31, 2019, was used as a time scale. We also performed a stratified analysis for age at baseline and sex. Results: During 5,253,627.9 person-years, 4,738 overall deaths and 654 cardiovascular deaths occurred. When the low-risk group was set as a reference, in the multivariable-adjusted model, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for overall mortality were 3.36 (2.87-3.95) in the moderate-risk group, 11.08 (9.27-13.25) in the high-risk group, and 21.20 (17.42-25.79) in the very-high-risk group, all of which were statistically significant. In cardiovascular deaths, the difference according to the risk classification was more pronounced. The HRs (95% CI) were 8.57 (4.95-14.83), 38.95 (21.77-69.69), and 78.81 (42.62-145.71) in each group. As a result of a subgroup analysis by age and sex, the HRs of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality tended to be higher in the high-risk group. Conclusions: This large-scale longitudinal study confirmed that the risk of death increases with the 10-year cardiovascular risk of general health checkup.

Predicting Recurrence-Free Survival After Upfront Surgery in Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Preoperative Risk Score Based on CA 19-9, CT, and 18F-FDG PET/CT

  • Boryeong Jeong;Minyoung Oh;Seung Soo Lee;Nayoung Kim;Jae Seung Kim;Woohyung Lee;Song Cheol Kim;Hyoung Jung Kim;Jin Hee Kim;Jae Ho Byun
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.644-655
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    • 2024
  • Objective: To develop and validate a preoperative risk score incorporating carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, CT, and fluorine18-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) PET/CT variables to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after upfront surgery in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Materials and Methods: Patients with resectable PDAC who underwent upfront surgery between 2014 and 2017 (development set) or between 2018 and 2019 (test set) were retrospectively evaluated. In the development set, a risk-scoring system was developed using the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, including variables associated with RFS. In the test set, the performance of the risk score was evaluated using the Harrell C-index and compared with that of the postoperative pathological tumor stage. Results: A total of 529 patients, including 335 (198 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 64 ± 9 years) and 194 (103 male; mean age, 66 ± 9 years) patients in the development and test sets, respectively, were evaluated. The risk score included five variables predicting RFS: tumor size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29 per 1 cm increment; P < 0.001), maximal standardized uptake values of tumor ≥ 5.2 (HR, 1.29; P = 0.06), suspicious regional lymph nodes (HR, 1.43; P = 0.02), possible distant metastasis on 18F-FDG PET/CT (HR, 2.32; P = 0.03), and CA 19-9 (HR, 1.02 per 100 U/mL increment; P = 0.002). In the test set, the risk score showed good performance in predicting RFS (C-index, 0.61), similar to that of the pathologic tumor stage (C-index, 0.64; P = 0.17). Conclusion: The proposed risk score based on preoperative CA 19-9, CT, and 18F-FDG PET/CT variables may have clinical utility in selecting high-risk patients with resectable PDAC.

The Prognostic Significance of the Number of Resected Lymph Nodes in Gastric Cancer Patients (근치 절제술을 시행한 위암에서 절제림프절 수의 임상적 의의)

  • Kim, Se-Jin;Jang, You-Jin;Kim, Jong-Han;Park, Sung-Soo;Park, Seong-Heum;Kim, Seung-Ju;Mok, Young-Jae;Kim, Chong-Suk;Ahn, Hyong-Gin
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.246-255
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The objectives of this study were to investigate the impact of the number of resected lymph nodes on the survival of gastric cancer patients who underwent curative resection, and to evaluate the cut-off values that can have an influence on survival on the tumor stage-stratified analysis. Materials and Methods: The subjects were 949 gastric cancer patients who underwent curative resection at Korea University Medical Center from 1992 to 2002. They were classified according to the depth of tumor invasion, and the influence of the number of resected lymph nodes on survival was investigated. The cut-off value for the number of resected lymph nodes was determined as the smallest value that showed a significant survival difference. Results: The tumor size, location, lymph node stage, the number of metastatic lymph nodes and the number of resected lymph nodes were significantly different according to the tumor stage. The average number of resected lymph nodes was about 39, and it showed linear correlation with the number of metastatic lymph nodes. On the Cox proportional hazard model, the cut-off values of the number of resected lymph nodes, as corrected by the number of metastatic lymph nodes, was 14 for all the patients, 15 for the pT1 patients, 28 for the pT2 patients and 37 for the pT3 patients, respectively. Conclusion: Retrieving a number of lymph nodes that is more than the cut-off value could improve the survival of gastric cancer patients. Surgeons should also make efforts to perform an exact and thorough D2 lymph node dissection. Therefore, we urge surgeons to perform D2 dissection and pathologists should examine an certain exact number of lymph nodes.

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A Follow-Up Study after Discontinuation of Antiepileptic Drug Therapy in Children with Well-Controlled Epilepsy : The Factors that Influence Recurrence (항전간제로 조절된 간질 환아에서 약물 중지 후 추적 관찰 - 재발위험인자)

  • Chung, Sa Jun;Chung, Hye Jeon;Choi, Young Mi;Cho, Eu Hyun
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.45 no.12
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    • pp.1559-1570
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : There has been no exact answer to the question of when to discontinue antiepileptic drugs(AEDs) in children with well-controlled epilepsy for a long period. This study is about the risk factors of relapse after withdrawal of AEDs in seizure(Sz)-free patients to show a guideline for discontinuation of AEDs. Methods : One hundred and sixty-nine children were diagnosed as epileptic at the Pediatric Dept. of Kyung-Hee Univ. between 1993 to 1998, in whom AEDs had been withdrawn after at least two years of Sz-free period. Univariate analysis using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariate analysis using Cox-proportional hazard model were performed for sixteen risk factors. Results : Forty-nine of the 169 patients(28.9%) had recurrence of Szs. The mean follow-up after withdrawal of AEDs was 4.1 years, mean treatment period was 4.1 years, and the mean Sz-free period was 3.3 years. Factors associated with an increased risk of relapse were young age at onset, symptomatic Sz, Sz type in West and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, neurologic deficit, longer Sz-controlling period, shorter total treatment period, number of AEDs used(more than one drug), age at withdrawal of AEDs, and Sz-free period less than two years in univariate analysis using Kaplan-Meier mothod. From multivariate analysis, the factors indicating a significantly higher relapse risk were pre-treatment period after first Sz attack, Sz-controlling period, Sz-free period, number of AEDs used, neurologic abnormalities. Conclusion : For epileptic children who were Sz-free for more than two years, and were more than six-years-old, the discontinuation of AEDs should be considered positively, according to age of onset, Sz type, age at withdrawal of AEDs, total treatment period, Sz-controlling period, number of AEDs used, etiology, neurologic deficit, and the wishes of the patients and the their parents.

The Effects of Depression on the Survival of Terminal Cancer Patients in a Palliative Care Unit (완화병동에 입원한 말기 암 환자에서 우울증이 생존기간에 미치는 영향)

  • Son, Ji-Sung;Kim, Won-Hyoung;Lee, Jeong-Seop;Kim, Hye-Young;Kang, Sang-Gu;Choi, Seo-Hyeon;Bae, Jae-Nam
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.138-146
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : This study examined the association between depression and survival time in terminal cancer patients admitted to the palliative care unit. Emotional problems are important for terminal cancer patients in the palliative care unit, and evaluation of patients' depression plays an important role in treatment planning. Methods : From October 2015 to August 2018, we conducted a retrospective study of 291 terminal cancer patients admitted to a palliative care unit at a university hospital and evaluated depression with PHQ-9 at admission. Of the 291 patients, 146 (50.2%) completed PHQ-9 but 145 (49.8%) were not evaluated due to loss of consciousness or rejection. Results : 4-week survival rate in the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were 45.4% in the non-depressed group (PHQ-9<10) and 18.7% in the depressed group (PHQ-9≥10). According to the severity of depression, in the Cox proportional hazard model, the risk of mortality in moderate, moderately sever and severe group was 2.778, 1.882 and 3.423 times higher than minimal group, respectively. Conclusions : Of the patients with terminal cancer who were admitted to the palliative care unit, the survival time was shorter in the depressed group than in the non-depressed group. Further research is needed to determine if treatment of depression increase the survival in terminal cancer patients.