A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.26 no.4
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- pp.111-126
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- 2020
Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.
Much has teed changed in the field of hospital administration in the It wake of the rapid development of sciences, techniques ana systematic hospital management. However, we still have a long way to go in organization, in the quality of hospital employees and hospital equipment and facilities, and in financial support in order to achieve proper hospital management. The above factors greatly effect the ability of hospitals to fulfill their obligation in patient care and nursing services. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal methods of standardization and quality nursing so as to improve present nursing services through investigations and analyses of various problems concerning nursing administration. This study has been undertaken during the six month period from October 1971 to March 1972. The 41 comprehensive hospitals have been selected iron amongst the 139 in the whole country. These have been categorized according-to the specific purposes of their establishment, such as 7 university hospitals, 18 national or public hospitals, 12 religious hospitals and 4 enterprise ones. The following conclusions have been acquired thus far from information obtained through interviews with nursing directors who are in charge of the nursing administration in each hospital, and further investigations concerning the purposes of establishment, the organization, personnel arrangements, working conditions, practices of service, and budgets of the nursing service department. 1. The nursing administration along with its activities in this country has been uncritical1y adopted from that of the developed countries. It is necessary for us to re-establish a new medical and nursing system which is adequate for our social environments through continuous study and research. 2. The survey shows that the 7 university hospitals were chiefly concerned with education, medical care and research; the 18 national or public hospitals with medical care, public health and charity work; the 2 religious hospitals with medical care, charity and missionary works; and the 4 enterprise hospitals with public health, medical care and charity works. In general, the main purposes of the hospitals were those of charity organizations in the pursuit of medical care, education and public benefits. 3. The survey shows that in general hospital facilities rate 64 per cent and medical care 60 per-cent against a 100 per cent optimum basis in accordance with the medical treatment law and approved criteria for training hospitals. In these respects, university hospitals have achieved the highest standards, followed by religious ones, enterprise ones, and national or public ones in that order. 4. The ages of nursing directors range from 30 to 50. The level of education achieved by most of the directors is that of graduation from a nursing technical high school and a three year nursing junior college; a very few have graduated from college or have taken graduate courses. 5. As for the career tenure of nurses in the hospitals: one-third of the nurses, or 38 per cent, have worked less than one year; those in the category of one year to two represent 24 pet cent. This means that a total of 62 per cent of the career nurses have been practicing their profession for less than two years. Career nurses with over 5 years experience number only 16 per cent: therefore the efficiency of nursing services has been rated very low. 6. As for the standard of education of the nurses: 62 per cent of them have taken a three year course of nursing in junior colleges, and 22 per cent in nursing technical high schools. College graduate nurses come up to only 15 per cent; and those with graduate course only 0.4 per cent. This indicates that most of the nurses are front nursing technical high schools and three year nursing junior colleges. Accordingly, it is advisable that nursing services be divided according to their functions, such as professional, technical nurses and nurse's aides. 7. The survey also shows that the purpose of nursing service administration in the hospitals has been regulated in writing in 74 per cent of the hospitals and not regulated in writing in 26 per cent of the hospitals. The general purposes of nursing are as follows: patient care, assistance in medical care and education. The main purpose of these nursing services is to establish proper operational and personnel management which focus on in-service education. 8. The nursing service departments belong to the medical departments in almost 60 per cent of the hospitals. Even though the nursing service department is formally separated, about 24 per cent of the hospitals regard it as a functional unit in the medical department. Only 5 per cent of the hospitals keep the department as a separate one. To the contrary, approximately 12 per cent of the hospitals have not established a nursing service department at all but surbodinate it to the other department. In this respect, it is required that a new hospital organization be made to acknowledge the independent function of the nursing department. In 76 per cent of the hospitals they have advisory committees under the nursing department, such as a dormitory self·regulating committee, an in-service education committee and a nursing procedure and policy committee. 9. Personnel arrangement and working conditions of nurses 1) The ratio of nurses to patients is as follows: In university hospitals, 1 to 2.9 for hospitalized patients and 1 to 4.0 for out-patients; in religious hospitals, 1 to 2.3 for hospitalized patients and 1 to 5.4 for out-patients. Grouped together this indicates that one nurse covers 2.2 hospitalized patients and 4.3 out-patients on a daily basis. The current medical treatment law stipulates that one nurse should care for 2.5 hospitalized patients or 30.0 out-patients. Therefore the statistics indicate that nursing services are being peformed with an insufficient number of nurses to cover out-patients. The current law concerns the minimum number of nurses and disregards the required number of nurses for operation rooms, recovery rooms, delivery rooms, new-born baby rooms, central supply rooms and emergency rooms. Accordingly, tile medical treatment law has been requested to be amended. 2) The ratio of doctors to nurses: In university hospitals, the ratio is 1 to 1.1; in national of public hospitals, 1 to 0.8; in religious hospitals 1 to 0.5; and in private hospitals 1 to 0.7. The average ratio is 1 to 0.8; generally the ideal ratio is 3 to 1. Since the number of doctors working in hospitals has been recently increasing, the nursing services have consequently teen overloaded, sacrificing the services to the patients. 3) The ratio of nurses to clerical staff is 1 to 0.4. However, the ideal ratio is 5 to 1, that is, 1 to 0.2. This means that clerical personnel far outnumber the nursing staff. 4) The ratio of nurses to nurse's-aides; The average 2.5 to 1 indicates that most of the nursing service are delegated to nurse's-aides owing to the shortage of registered nurses. This is the main cause of the deterioration in the quality of nursing services. It is a real problem in the guest for better nursing services that certain hospitals employ a disproportionate number of nurse's-aides in order to meet financial requirements. 5) As for the working conditions, most of hospitals employ a three-shift day with 8 hours of duty each. However, certain hospitals still use two shifts a day. 6) As for the working environment, most of the hospitals lack welfare and hygienic facilities. 7) The salary basis is the highest in the private university hospitals, with enterprise hospitals next and religious hospitals and national or public ones lowest. 8) Method of employment is made through paper screening, and further that the appointment of nurses is conditional upon the favorable opinion of the nursing directors. 9) The unemployment ratio for one year in 1971 averaged 29 per cent. The reasons for unemployment indicate that the highest is because of marriage up to 40 per cent, and next is because of overseas employment. This high unemployment ratio further causes the deterioration of efficiency in nursing services and supplementary activities. The hospital authorities concerned should take this matter into a jeep consideration in order to reduce unemployment. 10) The importance of in-service education is well recognized and established. 1% has been noted that on the-job nurses. training has been most active, with nursing directors taking charge of the orientation programs of newly employed nurses. However, it is most necessary that a comprehensive study be made of instructors, contents and methods of education with a separate section for in-service education. 10. Nursing services'activities 1) Division of services and job descriptions are urgently required. 81 per rent of the hospitals keep written regulations of services in accordance with nursing service manuals. 19 per cent of the hospitals do not keep written regulations. Most of hospitals delegate to the nursing directors or certain supervisors the power of stipulating service regulations. In 21 per cent of the total hospitals they have policy committees, standardization committees and advisory committees to proceed with the stipulation of regulations. 2) Approximately 81 per cent of the hospitals have service channels in which directors, supervisors, head nurses and staff nurses perform their appropriate services according to the service plans and make up the service reports. In approximately 19 per cent of the hospitals the staff perform their nursing services without utilizing the above channels. 3) In the performance of nursing services, a ward manual is considered the most important one to be utilized in about 32 percent of hospitals. 25 per cent of hospitals indicate they use a kardex; 17 per cent use ward-rounding, and others take advantage of work sheets or coordination with other departments through conferences. 4) In about 78 per cent of hospitals they have records which indicate the status of personnel, and in 22 per cent they have not. 5) It has been advised that morale among nurses may be increased, ensuring more efficient services, by their being able to exchange opinions and views with each other. 6) The satisfactory performance of nursing services rely on the following factors to the degree indicated: approximately 32 per cent to the systematic nursing activities and services; 27 per cent to the head nurses ability for nursing diagnosis; 22 per cent to an effective supervisory system; 16 per cent to the hospital facilities and proper supply, and 3 per cent to effective in·service education. This means that nurses, supervisors, head nurses and directors play the most important roles in the performance of nursing services. 11. About 87 per cent of the hospitals do not have separate budgets for their nursing departments, and only 13 per cent of the hospitals have separate budgets. It is recommended that the planning and execution of the nursing administration be delegated to the pertinent administrators in order to bring about improved proved performances and activities in nursing services.
From the beginning of the chosun dynasty, an agriculture-first policy was imposed by being written farming books, for instance, Nongsajiksul, matched with real conditions of local agriculture, which provided the grounds of new, intensive farming technologies. This farming book was the collection of good fanning technologies that were experienced in rural farm areas at that time. According to Nongsajiksul, rice culture systems were divided into "Musarmi"(Water-Seeded rice), /"Kunsarmi"(dry-seeded rice), /transplanted rice and mountainous rice (upland rice) culture. The characteristics of these rice cultures with high technologies were based of scientific weeding methods, improved fertilization, and cultivation works using cattle power and manpower tools systematically. Reclamation of coastal swampy and barren land was possible in virtue of fire cultivation farming(火耕) and a weeding tool called "Yoonmok"(輪木). Also, there was an improved hoe to do weeding works as well as thinning and heaping-up of soil at seeding stages of rice. Direct-seeded rice culture in flat paddy fields were expanded by constructing the irrigation reservoirs and ponds, and the valley paddy fields was reclaimed by constructing "Boh(洑)". These were possible due to weed control by irrigation waters, keeping soil fertility by inorganic fertilization during irrigation, and increased productivity of rice fields by supplying good physiological conditions for rice. Also, labor-saving culture of rice was feasible by transplanting but in national-wide, rice should not basically be transplanted because of the restriction of water use. Thus, direct-seeded rice in dry soils was established, in which rice was direct-seeded and grown in dry soils by seedling stages and was grown in flooded fields when rained, as in the book "Nongsajiksul". During the middle of the dynasty(AD 1495-1725), the excellent labor-saving farmings include check-rowing transplanting because of weeding efficiency and availability in rice("Hanjongrok"), and, nurserybed techniques (early transplanting of rice) were emphasized on the basis of rice transplanting ["Nongajibsung"]. The techniques for deep plowing with cattle powers and for putting more fertilizers were to improve the productivity of labor and land, The matters advanced in "Sanlimkyungje" more than in "Nongajibsung" were, development of "drybed of rice nursery stock", like "upland rice nursery" today, transplanting, establishment of "winter barly on drained paddy field, and improvement of labor and land-productivity in rice". This resulted in the community of large-scale farming by changing the pattern of small-farming into the production system of rice management. Woo-hayoung(1741-1812) in his book "Chonilrok" tried to reform from large-scale farmings into intensive farmings, of which as eminent view was to divide the land use into transplanting (paddy) and groove-seeding methods(dry field). Especially as insisted by Seo-yugo ("Sanlimkyungjeji"), the advantages of transplanting were curtailment of weeding labors, good growth of rice because of soil fertility of both nurserybed and paddy field, and newly active growth because rice plants were pulled out and replanted. Of course, there were reestimation of transplanting, limitation of two croppings a year, restriction of "paddy-upland alternation", and a ban for large-scale farming. At that period, Lee-jiyum had written on rice farming technologies in dry upland with consider of the land, water physiology of rice, and convenience for weeding, and it was a creative cropping system to secure the farm income most safely. As a integrated considerations, the followings must be introduced to practice the improved farming methods ; namely, improvement of farming tools, putting more fertilizers, introduction of cultural technologies more rational and efficient, management of labor power, improvement of cropping system to enhance use of irrigation water and land, introduction of new crops and new varieties.
The purpose of this study was to examine the job performance of dental coordinators and their perception of their job to lay the groundwork for utilizing dental personnels more efficiently. The subjects in this study were dental coordinators who worked at selected dental hospitals and clinics in Seoul, Gyeonggi province and Incheon. A survey was conducted to gather data from May 1 to August 8, 2005 and answer sheets from 108 respondents were analyzed. The findings of the study were as follows: 1. As for the length of service, 43.5 percent of the dental coordinators investigated had worked at dental institutes for five years or more, which was followed by less than two years(19.5%) and three years to less than five years(19.4%). Concerning the length of service as dental coordinators, 39.8 percent had served for less than two years, and 19.4 percent had worked for two years to less than three years and for five years or more respectively. Regarding the name of position, 38 percent were called team leaders, and 30.6 percent were called coordinators. As to duties, the largest group of them that stood at 30.6 percent were in charge of receiving, and in regard to department, the largest group, 57.4 percent, belonged to the treatment backup department. 2. Concerning education, the greatest number of them, 45.4 percent, had received education at private institutes, and 73.1 percent found it necessary for dental coordinators to take an authorized qualification test. 43.5 percent, the largest group, looked upon the central government as the best organization to authorize their qualifications and 70.8 percent believed that what they learned enabled them to perform their job successfully. As to the necessity of follow-up education as a means to improve job performance, 96.3 percent consented to it. As for the reason, 63.9 percent considered that necessary to enhance their own ability and 22.2 percent were in want of systematic education. Regarding educational expenses, 29.6 percent were subsidized by the dental institutes where they had worked and 25.9 percent had totally been responsible for that. Regarding a required course, medical service and marketing was most widely pointed out(66.7%), followed by theory and practice(65.7%) and introduction to dentistry(57.4%). As to what sort of education they wanted to receive more, dental service and marketing was selected the most, followed by practical health insurance(35.2%). 3. In regard to what type of job they performed as dental coordinators, 88.9 percent were in charge of appointment in the field of customer service, and 87.9 percent paid attention to having good manners as service providers in the area of self-management. In the field of hospital affairs, 81.3 percent were in charge of receiving. 4. As to their awareness of dental coordinator job, the largest group took pride in the job they performed (
Background : It has been generally known that the incidence of lung cancer is higher in the patients with idopathic pumonary fibrosis (IPF) than those in general population. The reported incidence was variable from 4.8 to 43.2%. There were controversies on the most frequent cell type (squamous cell carcinoma vs. adenocarcinoma) and no study was done about the real concordance of cancer and the fibrotic lesion. And the pulmonary fibrosis may influence not only the development of cancer but also the treatment and prognosis of the cancer, but there was no report on that point. Method : Total 63 patients (
To measure variations in some of the important agronomic characteristics of rice varieties under shifting of seedling dates, this study has been carried out at the Paddy Crop Division of Crop Experiment Station(then Agricultural Experiment Station) in Suwon for the period of three years 1958 to 1960. The varieties used in this study were Kwansan, Suwon #82, Mojo, Paltal and Chokwang, which have the different agronomic characteristics such as earliness and plant type. Seeds of each variety were sown at 14 different dates in 10-day interval starting on March 2. The seedlings were grown on seed bed for 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 days, respectively. The results of this study are as follows: A. Heading dates. 1. As the seeding date was delayed, the heading dates was almost proportionally delayed. The degree of delay was higher in early varieties and lower in late varieties and the longer the seedling stage, the more delayed the heading date. 2. Number of days to heading was proportionally lessened as seeding was delayed in all the varieties but the magnitude varied depending upon variety. In other words, the required period for heading in case of late planting was much shortened in late variety compared with early one. Within a variety, the number of days to heading was less shortened as the seedling stage was prolonged. Early variety reached earlier than late variety to the marginal date for the maximum shortening of days to heading and the longer the seeding stage, the limitted date came earlier. There was a certain limit in seeding date for shortening of days to heading as seeding was delayed, and days to heading were rather prolonged due to cold weather when seeded later than that date. 3. In linear regression equation, Y=a+bx obtained from the seeding dates and the number of days to heading, the coefficient b(shortening rate of days to heading) was closely correlated with the average number of days to heading. That is, the period from seeding to heading was more shortened in late variety than early one as seeding was delayed. 4. To the extent that the seedling stage is not so long and there is a linear relationship between delay of seeding and shortening of days to heading, it might be possible to predict heading date of a rice variety to be sown any date by using the linear regression obtained from variation of heading dates under the various seeding dates of the same variety. 5. It was found out that there was a close correlation between the numbers of days to heading in ordinary culture and the other ones. When a rice variety was planted during the period from the late part of March to the middle of June and the seedling ages were within 30 to 50 days, it could be possible to estimate heading date of the variety under late or early culture with the related data of ordinary culture. B. Maturing date. 6. Within (he marginal date for maturation of rice variety, maturing date was proportionally delayed as heading was delayed. Of course, the degree of delay depended upon varieties and seedling ages. The average air temperature (Y) during the ripening period of rice variety was getting lower as the heading date. (X) was delayed. Though there was a difference among varieties, in general, a linear regression equation(y=25.53-0.182X) could be obtained as far as heading date were within August 1 to September 13. 7. Depending upon earliness of a rice variety, the average air temperature during the ripening period were greatly different. Early variety underwent under 28