• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.534-541
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• 2011

Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.40-45
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• 2014

Abalone herpes-like virus (AbHV) is a fatal disease of abalones that impose severe economic impacts on the industry of infected regions due to high mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of introducing AbHV into Korea through the importation of live abalones for human consumption by import risk analysis (IRA). Monte Carlo simulation models were developed to provide estimates of the probability that a ton of imported abalone contains at least one AbHV-infected individual, using historical trade data and relevant literatures. A sensitivity analysis with 5,000 iterations was also conducted to determine the extent to which input parameters affect the outcome of the model. Although many uncertainties were present in the data, the results indicated that, if 5,000 tons of abalone were imported from a hypothetical exporting country with low prevalence of AbHV (model 1), there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 4,816 of those tons (96.3%), while there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 100% of those tons imported from country with high prevalence (model 2). Sensitivity analysis indicated that for model 1, prevalence was the strongest influence factor on the predicted number of infections. For model 2, background mortality and washing to reduce the risk of surface contamination during processing were the major contributing factors. Risk management strategies need to be enforced to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in that at least one infected abalone would remain in a consignment from country even with a low prevalence of AbHV infection. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the development of AbHV management program, and with more accurate data this IRA model will aid science-based decision-making on mitigation strategies to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.20-33
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• 2021

Purpose - The growth in consumers' online shopping has even been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. While the purchase can be made from any countries online, the purpose is to examine the effect of the country of the online retailer (COOR) on consumers' perceived risk and purchase motivation, focusing on the retailer not on the brand. Design/methodology - Survey data from online shoppers are analized using the structural equation model. Findings - COOR, like COO of the brand manufacturer, positively affect consumer's purchase intension. First, the images and the perceived psychic distances of the COOR affects both perceived risk and purchase confidence. Secondly, this perceived risk and confidence they put on the transaction then affect the purchase intension of the consumer. Originality/value - We show that the quality of the signal comes not only from the manufacturer-branded product item itself with a certain COO, but also from the retailer who carries it.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.111-142
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• 2014

We examine whether country fundamentals help explain the cross-section of currency excess returns. For this purpose, we consider fundamental variables such as default risk, foreign exchange rate regime, capital control as well as interest rate in the multi-factor model framework. Our empirical results show that fundamental factors explain a large part of the cross-section of currency excess returns. The zero-intercept restriction of the factor model is not rejected for most currencies. They also reveal that our factor model with country fundamentals performs better than a factor model with usual investment-style factors. Our main empirical results are based on 2001-2010 balanced panel data of 19 major currencies. This paper may fill the gap between country fundamentals and practitioners' strategies on currency investment.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.253-268
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• 2019

This paper analyses the characteristics of partner countries when multinational firms of Korea, China, and Japan make greenfield FDI in foreign countries. Particularly, this paper applies the gravity model for greenfield FDI flows for the period 2003-2017. This paper finds that multinational firms of Korea, as compared to those of China and Japan, are very significantly and negatively responsive to political risks of partner countries. In contrast, multinational firms of Korea as well as those of China and Japan tend to make greater amounts of greenfield FDI in financially high-risk countries. This result indicates that multinational firms from these three countries should take financial risks of partner countries into more serious consideration.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.373-385
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• 2022

Due to the lack of information, medical tourists are regarded to be at high risk. Prior medical tourism research has found that various types of perceived risks have a significant impact on medical tourists' purchase behavior. Even though medical tourism is predicted to increase, there is a lack of behavioral research to explain how perceived risks affect medical tourists' purchase behavior. In the context of Korean medical tourism, this study attempts to evaluate the effects of multi-level (macro, organizational, and personal) factors on medical tourists' perceived risks and purchase intentions. A conceptual model and hypotheses were built and empirically validated to investigate links between multi-level characteristics, perceived risks, and purchasing intentions. The data for this study was collected from Chinese tourists using a questionnaire. The impact of cognitive country image, affective country image, and medical service quality on fundamental risk is confirmed by statistical testing. Surprisingly, expectancy discrepancy risk is influenced only by cognitive country image and information search capabilities. Both fundamental and expectation discrepancy risks lower medical tourists' purchase intentions. The findings of this study show that a multi-level strategy is required to investigate the links between perceived risks and medical tourism purchasing intentions based on macro, organizational, and personal factors.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.229-238
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• 2022

The goal of this research is to look at the Belt and Road Initiative's (BRI) goals, principles, and priorities, as well as criticisms and concerns. Another goal is to determine the Vietnamese government's best response to the BRI. Finally, the study looks at the Vietnamese viewpoint. Document review is used in conjunction with PESTELED analysis and EIU country risk model technique in this study. The study is focused on in-depth interviews with 38 top government leaders, researchers, and scholars by adopting the Delphi technique to determine major factors of risks and opportunities as well as obtain a clearer view on the Vietnamese perspective of the BRI. The main conclusion is that Vietnam's participation in the BRI could result in a variety of benefits and risks, including economic development, connectivity and integration, development finance, cooperation, coordination, trade facilitation, and people-to-people communication, as well as diplomatic and political risks, financial risks, environmental challenges, and job creation. Another conclusion is suggested that careful and case-by-case negotiation with China is needed for Vietnam to exploit the future benefits of BRI. There is a need to set up the strategy to mitigate the risk impacts, reduce the risk level, avoid risk, at last turn the risk into opportunities.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.15-23
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• 2017

Purpose - This research aims to determine whether the consumer affinity and ethnocentrism as well as the image of a foreign country (Japanese product as the most popular product in Indonesia) are able to influence behavior related to the perceived risk and willingness to buy foreign products from the affinity country. Research design, data, and methodology - Using survey techniques with 164 respondents, the study uses structural equation model with confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). To ensure the research objective and appropriate respondent, then we select an individual who have interest on Japanese culture & language. The primary and secondary data used in this study. Primary data refers to information collected directly from respondent by questionnaires dissemination while secondary data is provided from well-established literatures. Results - The results show us that the ethnocentrism has dominant affection role compared to affinity in order to influence consumer behavior meanwhile, the product country image has cognition role to evoke consumer desire to consume foreign products. Conclusions - From a theoretical perspective, the study contributes to international marketing literature by refining the conceptualization of the consumer affinity construct and highlighting its multidimensional nature. The consumer affinity research need to enrich in term of the context and the different culture and situation.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.496-500
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• 2015

International construction projects are inherently more risky than domestic projects with multi-dimensional uncertainties that require complementary risk management at both the country and project levels. However, despite a growing need for systematic country evaluations, most studies have focused on project-level decisions and lack country-based approaches for firms in the construction industry. Accordingly, this study suggests data-driven approaches for evaluating countries using two quantitative models. The first is a two-stage country segmentation model that not only screens negative countries based on country attractiveness (macro-segmentation) but also identifies promising countries based on the level of past project performance in a given country (micro-segmentation). The second is a multi-criteria country segmentation model that combines a firm's business objective with the country evaluation process based on Kraljic's matrix and fuzzy preference relations (FPR). These models utilize not only secondary data from internationally reputable institutions but also performance data on Korean firms from 1990 to 2014 to evaluate 29 countries. The proposed approaches enable firms to enhance their decision-making capacity for evaluating and selecting countries at the early stage of corporate strategy development.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.207-215
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• 2015

Safety' can be used in a variety of ways and may also have different meanings when used in theoretical field and routinely used. In this paper, the 'safety' means that human injury, fire or physical accident condition does not occur while used by the end-user. The meaning of safety may be different by era and culture. Even in contemporary era, the meaning can be used differently by country, region and culture. As the rights of consumers are increasingly reinforced, we can expect the acceptable risk or safety level can rise higher. In this paper, the R-map of Japan and the European risk assessment guidelines (RAPEX) were reviewed considering domestic incidents database status and its applicability. Because it is difficult to make a model based on a R-map, a revised model was developed mainly based on European Assessment Model with a combination of the important characteristics of Japan model R-map. Also utilizing this revised model, the availability as a new risk assessment model was confirmed by comparing the test results for the same scenarios to the other risk assessment model (RAPEX/RAG).