• Title/Summary/Keyword: Control measure

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Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

Thinking in Terms of East-West Contacts through Spreading Process of Sarmathia-Pattened Scabbard on Tillya-Tepe Site in Afghanistan (아프가니스탄 틸랴 테페의 사르마티아(Sarmathia)식 검집 패용 방식의 전개 과정으로 본 동서교섭)

  • Lee, Song Ran
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.54-73
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    • 2012
  • In this article, we examined the patterns of activities of the Sarmathians though in a humble measure, with a focus on the regions where the Sarmathian sheaths spreaded. One of the main weapons the mounted nomads like the Scythias, the Sarmathians, and the Alans used at war was a spear. Though complementary, a sword was the most convenient and appropriate weapon when fighting at a near distance, fallen from the horse to the ground. The Sarmathian swords continued the tradition of the Akinakes which the Scythias or the Persians used, but those of the Sarmathians showed some advances in terms of the easiness with which a sword was drawn out from a sheath, and the way the sheaths were worn to parts of a human body. It turns out that the Sarmathian sheaths, which were designed for the people to draw swords easily, having the sheaths attached to thighs through 4 bumps, spread extensively from Pazyryk, Altai, to South Siberia, Bactria, Parthia and Rome. The most noteworthy out of all the Sarmathian sheaths were the ones that were excavated from the 4th tomb in Tillatepe, Afghanistan which belonged to the region of Bactria. The owner of the fourth tomb of Tilla-tepe whose region was under the control of Kushan Dynasty at that time, was buried wearing Sarmathian swords, and regarded as a big shot in the region of Bactria which was also under the governance of Kushan Dynasty. The fact that the owner of the tomb wore two swords suggests that there had been active exchange between Bactria and Sarmathia. It seemed that the reason why the Sarmathians could play an important role in the exchange between the East and the West might have something to do with their role of supplying Chinese goods to Silk Road. That's why we are interested in how the copper mirrors of Han Dynasty, decoration beads like melon-type beads, crystal beads and goldring articulated beads, and the artifacts of South China which produced silks were excavated in the northern steppe route where the Sarmathians actively worked. Our study have established that the eye beads discovered in Sarmathian tomb estimated to have been built around the 1st century B.C. were reprocessed in China, and then imported to Sarmathia again. We should note the Huns as a medium between the Sarmathians and the South China which were far apart from each other. Thus gold-ring articulated beads which were spread out mainly across the South China has been discovered in the Huns' remains. On the other hand, between 2nd century B.C. and 2nd century A.D. which were main periods of the Sarmathians, it was considered that the traffic route connecting the steppe route and the South China might be West-South silk road which started from Yunnan, passed through Myanmar, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, and then went into the east of India. The West-south Silk road is presumed to have been used by nomadic tribes who wanted to get the goods from South China before the Oasis route was activated by the Han Dynasty's policy of managing the countries bordering on Western China.

The Effect of Shading on Pedestrians' Thermal Comfort in the E-W Street (동-서 가로에서 차양이 보행자의 열적 쾌적성에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Nam-Hyong;Lee, Chun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.60-74
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    • 2018
  • This study was to investigate the pedestrian's thermal environments in the North Sidewalk of E-W Street during summer heatwave. We carried out detailed measurements with four human-biometeorological stations on Dongjin Street, Jinju, Korea ($N35^{\circ}10.73{\sim}10.75^{\prime}$, $E128^{\circ}55.90{\sim}58.00^{\prime}$, elevation: 50m). Two of the stations stood under one row street tree and hedge(One-Tree), two row street tree and hedge (Two-Tree), one of the stations stood under shelter and awning(Shelter), while the other in the sun (Sunlit). The measurement spots were instrumented with microclimate monitoring stations to continuously measure microclimate, radiation from the six cardinal directions at the height of 1.1m so as to calculate the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) from 24th July to 21th August 2018. The radiant temperature of sidewalk's elements were measured by the reflective sphere and thermal camera at 29th July 2018. The analysis results of 9 day's 1 minute term human-biometeorological data absorbed by a man in standing position from 10am to 4pm, and 1 day's radiant temperature of sidewalk elements from 1:16pm to 1:35pm, showed the following. The shading of street tree and shelter were mitigated heat stress by the lowered UTCI at mid and late summer's daytime, One-Tree and Two-Tree lowered respectively 0.4~0.5 level, 0.5~0.8 level of the heat stress, Shelter lowered respectively 0.3~1.0 level of the heat stress compared with those in the Sunlit. But the thermal environments in the One-Tree, Two-Tree and Shelter during the heat wave supposed to user "very strong heat stress" while those in the Sunlit supposed to user "very strong heat stres" and "exterme heat stress". The main heat load temperature compared with body temperature ($37^{\circ}C$) were respectively $7.4^{\circ}C{\sim}21.4^{\circ}C$ (pavement), $14.7^{\circ}C{\sim}15.8^{\circ}C$ (road), $12.7^{\circ}C$ (shelter canopy), $7.0^{\circ}C$ (street funiture), $3.5^{\circ}C{\sim}6.4^{\circ}C$ (building facade). The main heat load percentage were respectively 34.9%~81.0% (pavement), 9.6%~25.2% (road), 24.8% (shelter canopy), 14.1%~15.4% (building facade), 5.7% (street facility). Reducing the radiant temperature of the pavement, road, building surfaces by shading is the most effective means to achieve outdoor thermal comfort for pedestrians in sidewalk. Therefore, increasing the projected canopy area and LAI of street tree through the minimal training and pruning, building dense roadside hedge are essential for pedestrians thermal comfort. In addition, thermal liner, high reflective materials, greening etc. should be introduced for reducing the surface temperature of shelter and awning canopy. Also, retro-reflective materials of building facade should be introduced for the control of reflective sun radiation. More aggressively pavement watering should be introduced for reducing the surface temperature of sidewalk's pavement.

The Effect of Customer Satisfaction on Corporate Credit Ratings (고객만족이 기업의 신용평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, In-soo;Chun, Myung-hoon;Yu, Jung-su
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2012
  • Nowadays, customer satisfaction has been one of company's major objectives, and the index to measure and communicate customer satisfaction has been generally accepted among business practices. The major issues of CSI(customer satisfaction index) are three questions, as follows: (a)what level of customer satisfaction is tolerable, (b)whether customer satisfaction and company performance has positive causality, and (c)what to do to improve customer satisfaction. Among these, the second issue is recently attracting academic research in several perspectives. On this study, the second issue will be addressed. Many researchers including Anderson have regarded customer satisfaction as core competencies, such as brand equity, customer equity. They want to verify following causality "customer satisfaction → market performance(market share, sales growth rate) → financial performance(operating margin, profitability) → corporate value performance(stock price, credit ratings)" based on the process model of marketing performance. On the other hand, Insoo Jeon and Aeju Jeong(2009) verified sequential causality based on the process model by the domestic data. According to the rejection of several hypotheses, they suggested the balance model of marketing performance as an alternative. The objective of this study, based on the existing process model, is to examine the causal relationship between customer satisfaction and corporate value performance. Anderson and Mansi(2009) proved the relationship between ACSI(American Customer Satisfaction Index) and credit ratings using 2,574 samples from 1994 to 2004 on the assumption that credit rating could be an indicator of a corporate value performance. The similar study(Sangwoon Yoon, 2010) was processed in Korean data, but it didn't confirm the relationship between KCSI(Korean CSI) and credit ratings, unlike the results of Anderson and Mansi(2009). The summary of these studies is in the Table 1. Two studies analyzing the relationship between customer satisfaction and credit ratings weren't consistent results. So, in this study we are to test the conflicting results of the relationship between customer satisfaction and credit ratings based on the research model considering Korean credit ratings. To prove the hypothesis, we suggest the research model as follows. Two important features of this model are the inclusion of important variables in the existing Korean credit rating system and government support. To control their influences on credit ratings, we included three important variables of Korean credit rating system and government support, in case of financial institutions including banks. ROA, ER, TA, these three variables are chosen among various kinds of financial indicators since they are the most frequent variables in many previous studies. The results of the research model are relatively favorable : R2, F-value and p-value is .631, 233.15 and .000 respectively. Thus, the explanatory power of the research model as a whole is good and the model is statistically significant. The research model has good explanatory power, the regression coefficients of the KCSI is .096 as positive(+) and t-value and p-value is 2.220 and .0135 respectively. As a results, we can say the hypothesis is supported. Meanwhile, all other explanatory variables including ROA, ER, log(TA), GS_DV are identified as significant and each variables has a positive(+) relationship with CRS. In particular, the t-value of log(TA) is 23.557 and log(TA) as an explanatory variables of the corporate credit ratings shows very high level of statistical significance. Considering interrelationship between financial indicators such as ROA, ER which include total asset in their formula, we can expect multicollinearity problem. But indicators like VIF and tolerance limits that shows whether multicollinearity exists or not, say that there is no statistically significant multicollinearity in all the explanatory variables. KCSI, the main subject of this study, is a statistically significant level even though the standardized regression coefficients and t-value of KCSI is .055 and 2.220 respectively and a relatively low level among explanatory variables. Considering that we chose other explanatory variables based on the level of explanatory power out of many indicators in the previous studies, KCSI is validated as one of the most significant explanatory variables for credit rating score. And this result can provide new insights on the determinants of credit ratings. However, KCSI has relatively lower impact than main financial indicators like log(TA), ER. Therefore, KCSI is one of the determinants of credit ratings, but don't have an exceedingly significant influence. In addition, this study found that customer satisfaction had more meaningful impact on corporations of small asset size than those of big asset size, and on service companies than manufacturers. The findings of this study is consistent with Anderson and Mansi(2009), but different from Sangwoon Yoon(2010). Although research model of this study is a bit different from Anderson and Mansi(2009), we can conclude that customer satisfaction has a significant influence on company's credit ratings either Korea or the United State. In addition, this paper found that customer satisfaction had more meaningful impact on corporations of small asset size than those of big asset size and on service companies than manufacturers. Until now there are a few of researches about the relationship between customer satisfaction and various business performance, some of which were supported, some weren't. The contribution of this study is that credit rating is applied as a corporate value performance in addition to stock price. It is somewhat important, because credit ratings determine the cost of debt. But so far it doesn't get attention of marketing researches. Based on this study, we can say that customer satisfaction is partially related to all indicators of corporate business performances. Practical meanings for customer satisfaction department are that it needs to actively invest in the customer satisfaction, because active investment also contributes to higher credit ratings and other business performances. A suggestion for credit evaluators is that they need to design new credit rating model which reflect qualitative customer satisfaction as well as existing variables like ROA, ER, TA.

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A Study of Equipment Accuracy and Test Precision in Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (골밀도검사의 올바른 질 관리에 따른 임상적용과 해석 -이중 에너지 방사선 흡수법을 중심으로-)

  • Dong, Kyung-Rae;Kim, Ho-Sung;Jung, Woon-Kwan
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Because there is a difference depending on the environment as for an inspection equipment the important part of bone density scan and the precision/accuracy of a tester, the management of quality must be made systematically. The equipment failure caused by overload effect due to the aged equipment and the increase of a patient was made frequently. Thus, the replacement of equipment and additional purchases of new bonedensity equipment caused a compatibility problem in tracking patients. This study wants to know whether the clinical changes of patient's bonedensity can be accurately and precisely reflected when used it compatiblly like the existing equipment after equipment replacement and expansion. Materials and methods : Two equipments of GE Lunar Prodigy Advance(P1 and P2) and the Phantom HOLOGIC Spine Road(HSP) were used to measure equipment precision. Each device scans 20 times so that precision data was acquired from the phantom(Group 1). The precision of a tester was measured by shooting twice the same patient, every 15 members from each of the target equipment in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 2). In addition, the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data were made by scanning 20 times in each of the equipment using HSP, based on the data obtained from the management of quality using phantom(ASP) every morning (Group 3). The same patient was shot only once in one equipment alternately to make the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 4). Results : It is steady equipment according to daily Q.C Data with $0.996\;g/cm^2$, change value(%CV) 0.08. The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are ALP in Group 1(P1 : $1.064{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.190\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.061{\pm}0.003\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.192). The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are P1 : $1.187{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.164\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.198{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.163 in Group 2. The average error${\pm}$2SD and %CV are P1 - (spine: $0.001{\pm}0.03\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.94, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.019\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.96), P2 - (spine: $0.002{\pm}0.018\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.55, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.013\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.48) in Group 3. The average error${\pm}2SD$, %CV, and r value was spine : $0.006{\pm}0.024\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.86, r=0.995, Femur: $0{\pm}0.014\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.54, r=0.998 in Group 4. Conclusion: Both LUNAR ASP CV% and HOLOGIC Spine Phantom are included in the normal range of error of ${\pm}2%$ defined in ISCD. BMD measurement keeps a relatively constant value, so showing excellent repeatability. The Phantom has homogeneous characteristics, but it has limitations to reflect the clinical part including variations in patient's body weight or body fat. As a result, it is believed that quality control using Phantom will be useful to check mis-calibration of the equipment used. A value measured a patient two times with one equipment, and that of double-crossed two equipment are all included within 2SD Value in the Bland - Altman Graph compared results of Group 3 with Group 4. The r value of 0.99 or higher in Linear regression analysis(Regression Analysis) indicated high precision and correlation. Therefore, it revealed that two compatible equipment did not affect in tracking the patients. Regular testing equipment and capabilities of a tester, then appropriate calibration will have to be achieved in order to calculate confidential BMD.

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Rationalization of Fertilizing and Development of Fetilizer (시비(施肥)의 합리화(合理化)와 비종개발(肥種開發))

  • Lim, Sun-Uk
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.49-50
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    • 1982
  • The objective of this paper is to review the changes in fertilizer use pattern and to discuss some aspects of the fertilizer development in Korea. Fertilizer consumption in Korea have steadily increased to triple the application rates of N, P and K during the 15 years from 1965 to 1980, and Korea became one of the countries which apply fertilizers at the highest rate. The ratio of N: $P_2O_5$: $K_2O$ in fertilizer consumption changed from 55.4 : 31.4 : 13.1 in 1965 to 54.0 : 23.8 : 22.2 in 1980. It can be said that Korean farmers practise a balanced fertilization at least in view of fertilizer consumption as compared to other developing countries. However, differences in soil properties, crops, and climate varying as region were not reflected on fertilization. In the technological development of fertilizer, the chemical form and composition of the fertilizer as well as the suitability to the specific crops must be taken into consideration for the efficient use of fertilizers. Although organic fertilizers and manure are accepted as minor element suppliers, it is necessary to add minor elements into chemical fertilizers on the industrial process. Industrial waste may be used for the agricultural production as a measure of pollution control providing careful study on the waste.

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