• Title/Summary/Keyword: Contingency Analysis

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Study on Reserve Requirement for Wind Power Penetration based on the Cost/Reliability Analysis

  • Shin, Je-Seok;Kim, Jin-O;Bae, In-Su
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.1397-1405
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    • 2017
  • As the introduction of wind power is steadily increasing, negative effects of wind power become more important. To operate a power system more reliable, the system operator needs to recognize the maximum required capacity of available generators for a certain period. For recognizing the maximum capacity, this paper proposes a methodology to determine an optimal reserve requirement considering wind power, for the certain period in the mid-term perspective. As wind speed is predicted earlier, the difference of the forecasted and the actual wind speed becomes greater. All possible forecast errors should be considered in determining optimal reserve, and they are represented explicitly by the proposed matrix form in this paper. In addition, impacts of the generator failure are also analyzed using the matrix form. Through three main stages which are the scheduling, contingency and evaluation stages, costs associated with power generation, reserve procurement and the usage, and the reliability cost are calculated. The optimal reserve requirement is determined so as to minimize the sum of these costs based on the cost/reliability analysis. In case study, it is performed to analyze the impact of wind power penetration on the reserve requirement, and how major factors affect it.

Categorical Data Analysis by Means of Echelon Analysis with Spatial Scan Statistics

  • Moon, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2004
  • In this study we analyze categorical data by means of spatial statistics and echelon analysis. To do this, we first determine the hierarchical structure of a given contingency table by using echelon dendrogram then, we detect candidates of hotspots given as the top echelon in the dendrogram. Next, we evaluate spatial scan statistics for the zones of significantly high or low rates based on the likelihood ratio. Finally, we detect hotspots of any size and shape based on spatial scan statistics.

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Factors Affecting Implementation Performance in the Organizations Adopting ERP Systems (ERP 시스템 구현성과에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Jung, Chul-Ho;Chung, Young-Soo
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.135-165
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    • 2009
  • The major purpose of this study is to identify the factors influencing the implementation performance of ERP Systems from an integrated viewpoint. For this purpose, a research model is developed based on the literature reviews of ERP systems, contingency theory, and change management theory. The research model proposed fifteen variables as the factors influencing the implementation performance in the ERP systems. The data have been collected from the 164 enterprises which implemented ERP systems at least one year ago. The respondents were person in charge of ERP system of each corporation. The results of hypothesis testing through multiple regression analysis are summarized as follows. Firstly, standardization of work, concentration of decision making, top management concern and support, real user participation, project support goodness, ease of use, and system usefulness have positive influence upon non-financial performance. Secondly, market uncertainty, industrial competition, project support goodness, and customization minimization have positive influence upon financial performance. From the analysis, this research have identified important characteristics for the successful implementation of ERP systems. Consequently, this research ends with managerial and theoretical implications of the study results, as well as limitations and future research directions.

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Optimal Long-term Transmission Planning Algorithm using Non-linear Branch-and-bound Method (비선형 분산안전법을 이용한 최적장기송전계률 알고리)

  • 박영문;신중린
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.272-281
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    • 1988
  • The problem of optimal transmission system planning is to find the most economical locations and time of transmission line construction under the various constraints such as available rights-of-way, finances, the technical characteristics of power system, and the reliability criterion of power supply, and so on. In this paper the constraint of right-of-way is represented as a finite set of available rights-of-way. And the constructed for a unit period. The electrical constraints are represented in terms of line overload and steady state stability margin. And the reliability criterion is dealt with the suppression of failure cost and with single-contingency analysis. In general, the transmission planning problem requires integer solutions and its objective function is nonlinear. In this paper the objective function is defined as a sum of the present values of construction cost and the minimum operating cost of power system. The latter is represented as a sum of generation cost and failure cost considering the change of yearly load, economic dispatch, and the line contingency. For the calculation of operating cost linear programming is adopted on the base of DC load flow calculation, and for the optimization of main objective function nonlinear Branch-and-Bound algorithm is used. Finally, for improving the efficiency of B & B algorithm a new sensitivity analysis algorithm is proposed.

A Study on the Evaluation of the Impact of Power System according to the Connection of Renewable Energy (신재생 전원 계통 접속에 따른 전력계통 영향 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Seoung-Jun;Cho, Yun-Sung;Hur, Jin;Park, Sang Ho;Yoon, Gi Gab
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.733-737
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we describe the effects on the power system by adding renewable generator. In order to examine the stability of the system, the system analysis was performed using the PSS/E software. We confirmed whether occur the line overload of system through the load flow analysis and contingency analysis. and confirmed whether exceed of fault current using the fault current analysis. Dynamic stability of the system is analyzed through dynamic simulation. The analysis of the system according to the addition of the renewable generator was carried out according to the power system reliability and electricity quality maintenance standard.

Scientific Basis of Environmental Health Contingency Planning for a Coastal Oil Spill (대규모 유류유출사고 대비 환경보건 대응계획 수립을 위한 기반연구)

  • Kim, Young-Min;Cheong, Hae-Kwan;Kim, Jong-Ho;Kim, Jong-Hun;Ko, Kum-Sook;Ha, Mi-Na
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2009
  • Objectives : This study presents a scientific basis for the establishment of an environmental health contingency plan for dealing with accidental coastal oil spills and suggests some strategies for use in an environmental health emergency. Methods : We reviewed the existing literature, and analyzed the various fundamental factors involved in response strategies for oil spill. Our analysis included data derived from Hebei Spirit oil spill and used air dispersion modeling. Results : Spill amounts of more than 1,000 kl can affect the health of residents along the coast, especially those who belong to vulnerable groups. Almost 30% of South Korean population lives in the vicinity of the coast. The area that is at the highest risk for a spill and that has the greatest number of people at risk is the stretch of coastline from Busan to Tongyeong. The most prevalent types of oil spilt in Korean waters have been crude oil and bunker-C oil, both of which have relatively high specific gravity and contain volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and metals. In the case of a spill of more than 1,000 kl, it may be necessary to evacuate vulnerable and sensitive groups. Conclusions : The government should establish environmental health planning that considers the spill amount, the types of oil, and the distance between the spot of the accident and the coast, and should assemble a response team that includes environmental health specialists to prepare for the future oil spill.

Synergy and contingency fit analysis for digital convergence value attributes (디지털융합 가치요소의 시너지와 상황 적합 분석)

  • Han, Hyun-Soo;Moon, Tae-Eun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.11
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    • pp.403-418
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we attempted to theorize the synergy effect between the value creating attributes for digital convergence model in the service industry. Our investigation is based upon contingency fit theory to understand the strategic fit for the two inherent value attributes of fixed and mobile value, as well as resolving fundamental limitations of service processes. Empirical validation of the derived research model is analyzed using hierarchical regression method. The results indicate that the relative advantage of each value creating attributes are strongly associated with the characteristics of domain service industries, and compatibility is critical to user adoption of convergent service model. Moreover, the less significant statistical impact of the synergy between mobile and fixed value attributes and others implies that each value attribute uniquely contributes to particular IT convergence model, which thereby offers critical insight that focusing the convergent value in conjunction with specific application domain is the most appealing managerial focus. The findings provide useful insight for the further research in IT based industry convergent business model areas.

Empirical Capability Assessment Methodology of Quick Look using Weapon Score of Joint Integrated Contingency Model (전구급 워게임 모형의 무기점수를 활용한 Quick Look의 실증적 능력평가 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyungkwon;Kim, Youngho
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2017
  • The requirement planning system of Korea military has used top down planning approach after introducing Joint Combat Development System since 2007. But this new system has not been propelled harmoniously because it does not have any connection with the current planning system. Due to current time-exhaustive analysis and assessment process in requirement planning system, it not only delays proper decision making, but also hinders understanding on the problem in a whole perspectiveand finding a reasonable solution to our problem. In this study, we present a methodology which can analyze and assess capability utilizing the weapon score of JICM(Joint Integrated Contingency Model). The process identifies capability gap from a mission-oriented perspective in the requirement planning phase and suggests an appropriate solution to our problem. A Quick Look tool which has been developed using Python Script to implement the methodology is also introduced in this study.

Predicting Construction Project Cost using Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation (SPSS) (확률 통계적 일정 시뮬레이선 - 민감도 분석을 이용한 최종 공사비 예측)

  • Lee Dong-Eun;Park Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.4 s.26
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2005
  • Activity durations retain probabilistic and stochastic natures due to diverse factors causing the delay or acceleration of activity completion. These natures make the final project duration to be a random variable. These factors are the major source of financial risk. Extending the Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS) developed in previous research; this research presents a method to estimate how the final project duration behaves when activity durations change randomly. The final project cost is estimated by considering the fluctuation of indirect cost, which occurs due to the delay or acceleration of activity completion, along with direct cost assigned to an activity. The final project cost is estimated by considering how indirect cost behaves when activity duration change. The method quantifies the amount of contingency to cover the expected delay of project delivery. It is based on the quantitative analysis to obtain the descriptive statistics from the simulation outputs (final project durations). Existing deterministic scheduling method apply an arbitrary figures to the amount of delay contingency with uncertainty. However, the stochastic method developed in this research allows computing the amount of delay contingency with certainty and certain degree of confidence. An example project is used to illustrate the quantitative analysis method using simulation. When the statistical location and shape of probability distribution functions defining activity durations change, how the final project duration and cost behave are ascertained using automated sensitivity analysis method

Sensitivity Analysis for Ordered Categorical Data

  • Cho, Il-Hyun;Park, Taesung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.375-382
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    • 1999
  • Linear-by-linear association models are commonly used to analyze ordered categorical data. To fit these models appropriate scores need to be chosen. In this paper we perform sensitivity analyses in two-way contingency tables to investigate the effect of scores on goodness-of-fits and on tests of significance. In addition we show that the best score which yields the best fit of data can be selected based on the sensitivity analysis results.

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