• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2007.12a
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• pp.259-260
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• 2007

The forecast of a container traffic has been very important for port plan and development Generally, statistic methods, such as regression analysis, ARIMA, have been much used for traffic forecasting. Recent research activities in forecasting with artificial neural networks(ANNs) suggest tint ANNs am be a promising alternative to the traditional linear methods. In this paper, a hybrid methodology that combines both ARIMA and ANN models is proposed to take advantage of the unique strength of ARIMA and ANN models in linear and nonlinear modeling. The results with port traffic data indicate tint effectiveness can differ according to the ch1racteristics of ports.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.363-372
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• 2002

Recently, mutual economy cooperation in Northeast Asia has leaded steady growth among main countries of it and rather promoted a single economy circle. In this region, Busan container port competes with min container ports in China, Taiwan and Japan in it for attracting transshipment container traffic of north-Shanghai in China and for-east Russia. Therefore, this paper aims to suggest competitive strategies for Busan container port to attract container traffic in Northeast Asia To do so, it evaluates the preference of important ports in the competitive situation and competitiveness edgy of important ports in Northeast Asia, and finally proposes the relative order of important factors. Based on the evaluation of it, first, the Busan ports hue tn strengthen port facilities to attract more traffic and in detail, reinforce the number of berth, yard areas and handling equipment Second, they also have to provide high quality of services to deliver cargos in time, not being damaged and swiftly response to shipowner and shipper's claim, Third, they need to review the strategy to adopt flexible tariff policy and to invest the profit from tariff in port service and facilities, as providing higher port tariff level by a regular rate.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.87-100
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• 1999

This study was focused on analyzing the headway of various types of trailer in Pusan city with the high heavy vehicle rate. Then Passenger Car Equivalent(PCE) was calibrated in order to identify the impact of trailers in the traffic flow at the signalized intersections. To fulfill this goal types of trailer were classified into five categories such as full trailer semi-trailer unloaded semi-trailer semi-trailer loaded with 20ft container and semi-trailer loaded with 40ft container and Passenger Car Equivalents were identified. the Results are as follows: 1) The PCE’s were 2.64, 1.51, 2.09, 2.16 and 2.23 respectively. 2) The saturation flow rate on the signalized intersection was lower than that on the multi-lane highway in the big city of Korea. 3) The start-up delay on the thru lane was similar to the average value in our country but the start-up delay on the left-turn lane was longer than the average value in our country by the impact of container Vehicles.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.183-188
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• 2002

The forecast of a container traffic has been very important for port and development. Generally, Statistic methods, such as moving average method, exponential smoothing, and regression analysis have been much used for traffic forecasting. But, considering various factors related to the port affect the forecasting of container volume, neural network of parallel processing system can be effective to forecast container volume based on various factors. This study discusses the forecasting of volume by using the neural, network with back propagation learning algorithm. Affected factors are selected based on impact vector on neural network, and these selected factors are used to forecast container volume. The proposed the forecasting algorithm using neural network was compared to the statistic methods.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.33-48
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• 1995

In the process of containerization, the problem of regional maldistribution of container management plan arises seriously due to several factors like a number of unbalances of containers between loading and discharging ports. This study focus on the minimizing cost. This study is composed of two models which in effective management decision making show decision of the number of containers and transfer of empty containers. One is decision of the number of containers which carriers should possess by appropriate forecasting and the other is effective management decision making which includes the transfer of empty containers on calling ports. This study has suggested as follows, First, the Time Series analysis method, especially the "Exponential Smooting with Trend Adjustment" was used to forecast the trade volumes for the designated traffic route. Second, the Time Series analysis method in deciding the optimal number of owned container at the unbalances trade situation between East Bound and West Bound service, most important variables were found such as total traffic volume, the calling interval at a port, the number of days of voyage and the length of stay on shore of container for the optimal number of owned container. Third, effective management decision making model, which makes it possible to analyze the impacts of change in important matters such as lease and positioning policy, and actually influence decision making.on making.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.27-35
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• 2001

In order to deal with the increase of container cargo traffic volume more effectively, the ministry of maritime affairs & fisheries has a long-term plan to develop Gaduk Island. According to the plan, the New Port will handle 4,600,00TEUs annually. The completion of the project will enable the port of Busan to perform as a hub port in the Asia Pacific era of the year 2000 with sufficient port facilities, and this will lead to a new era of oceanic Korea. With the advent of the Pacific Rim Era of the year 2000, Busan metropolis has set a strategic development plan to establish the area as the center of logistics in the noreast Asian region as well as to become the stronghold of economic activity in Korea's southeast region. To this end, industries that will open the doors to a marine era and a new industrial complex focused on logistics are planned in the West Busan area where Gimhae International Airport and the Busan New Port meet. This paper aims to find out the functional relation and complement between the Busan New Port Distri-Park handing container cargo traffic volume and the West Busan Logistics Pa가 handling an air cargo and railroad goods. Especially, paper aims to suggest the West Busan Logistics Park as the efficient management of the container cargo traffic volume due to the Development Plan of the Busan New Port.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.161-188
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic volume between the Korean container ports located at the west coast and northern Chinese ports and then the distribution trend of container between Korea and China. The findings of the study are as follows. First, Container traffic between western Korean ports and northern Chinese ports has been increasing due to an increasing trade volume between both countries and geographical accessibility. Second, Seoul and neighboring area tend to use the trade route between the western ports and northern Chinese because of lower logistics costs and time-saved advantage compared to another ports. Third, the growth of the western ports did depend mainly on the northern China oriented growth. Such a fact could leads to the overlapping investment in port development in Korea and another intense competition among national ports to attract cargoes and liners. Therefore, port development policy considering the characteristics and function of national ports have to be established. and also alternatives and strategies for improving the competitive edge of small and medium sized shipping lines against the opening of shipping market have to be worked out.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.57-65
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• 2016

The port throughput situation has changed since the 2008 financial crisis in the US. Therefore, we studied the situation, accurately estimating port traffic of Korean port after the 2008 financial crisis. We ensured the proper port facilities in response to changes in port traffic. In the results of regression analysis, Korean GDP and the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won were found to increase the container throughput in Korean and Busan port, as well as trade volume with China. Also, the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won was found to increase the port transshipment cargo volume. Based on the ARIMA models, we forecasted port throughput and port transshipment cargo volume for the next six years (72 months), from 2015 to 2020. As a result, port throughput of Korean and Busan ports was forecasted by increasing annual the average from about 3.5% to 3.9%, and transshipment cargo volume was forecasted by increasing the annual average about 4.5%.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.321-330
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• 2022

Busan New Port manages the largest volume of traffic among Korean ports, and accounts for 68.5% of the total volume of the Busan port. Due to this increase in volume, ultra large container ships call at Busan New Port. When the additional south container terminal as well as ongoing construction project of the west container terminal are completed, various encounters may occur at the Busan New Port entrance, which may cause collision risk.s Thus, the purpose of this study was to provide a plan to improve the safety of vessel traffic, in the in/out bound fairway of Busan New Port. For this purpose, the status of arrivals and departures of vessels in Busan New Port, was examined through maritime traffic flow analysis. Additionally, risk factors and safety measures were identified, by AHP analysis with ship operators of the study area. Also, based on the derived safety measures, scenarios were set using the Environmental Stress model (ES model), and the traffic risk level of each safety measure was identified through simulation. As a result, it is expected that setting the no entry area for one-way traffic would have a significant effect on mitigating risks at the Busan New Port entrance. This study can serve as a basis for preparing safety measures, to improve the navigation of vessels using Busan New Port. If safety measures are prepared in the future, it is necessary to verify the safety by using the traffic volume and flow changes according to the newly-opened berths.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2000.11a
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• pp.7-14
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• 2000

The purpose of this study is to improvement strategies for transportation systems of container cargo in Busan port. Therefore, it was forecasted the future container cargo demand using logistic curve formula. In 2011, container cargo demand was forecasted 8.791 million TEU(T/S including 12.559 million TEU). In order to improvement transportation systems of container cargo, this study presented following; $\circled1$ port facilities expansion, $\circled2$ diversity of container transport modes. $\circled3$ make up ICD and exclusive container roads, $\circled4$ the second Seoul-Busan Expressway.