• Title/Summary/Keyword: Consequence-based

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Development of Risk Rating and Index for Coastal Activity Locations

  • Lee, Young-Jai;Jung, Cho-Young;Gu, Ja-Yeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.227-232
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    • 2020
  • This paper develops a risk index based on an indicator of risk assessment in terms of coastal activity location and accident type. The risk index is derived from a formula which adds the consequence of failure to a vulnerability value, then subtracts the mitigation value. Specifically, the consequence of failure is the number of casualties in coastal activity locations. An indicator of vulnerability refers to coastal environment elements and social elements. A pointer of mitigation includes managerial and organizational elements that indicate the capabilities of coastal activities. A risk rating of coastal activity location is found from a risk matrix consisting of the accident location and type. The purpose of this study is to prevent accidents at coastal activity locations by allowing the Coastal police guard to monitor effectively and inform visitors of potential risks.

Consequence Analysis on the Leakage Accident of Hydrogen Fuel in a Combined Cycle Power Plant: Based on the Effect of Regional Environmental Features (복합화력발전소 내 수소연료 적용 시 누출 사고에 대한 피해영향범위 분석: 지역별 환경 특성 영향에 기반하여)

  • HEEKYUNG PARK;MINCHUL LEE
    • Journal of Hydrogen and New Energy
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.698-711
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    • 2023
  • Consequence analysis using an ALOHA program is conducted to calculate the accidental impact ranges in the cases of hydrogen leakage, explosion, and jet fire in a hydrogen fueled combined cycle power plant. To evaluate the effect of weather conditions and topographic features on the damage range, ALOHA is executed for the power plants located in the inland and coastal regions. The damage range of hydrogen leaked in coastal areas is wider than that of inland areas in all risk factors. The obtained results are expected to be used when designing safety system and establishing safety plans.

Fragility-based rapid earthquake loss assessment of precast RC buildings in the Marmara region

  • Ali Yesilyurt;Oguzhan Cetindemir;Seyhan O. Akcan;Abdullah C. Zulfikar
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.88 no.1
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2023
  • Seismic risk assessment studies are one of the most crucial instruments for mitigating casualties and economic losses. This work utilizes fragility curves to evaluate the seismic risk of single-story precast buildings, which are generally favored in Marmara's organized industrial zones. First, the precast building stock in the region has been categorized into nine sub-classes. Then, seven locations in the Marmara region with a high concentration of industrial activities are considered. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments were conducted for both the soil-dependent and soil-independent scenarios. Subsequently, damage analysis was performed based on the structural capacity and mean fragility curves. Considering four different consequence models, 630 sub-class-specific loss curves for buildings were obtained. In the current study, it has been determined that the consequence model has a significant impact on the loss curves, hence, average loss curves were computed for each case investigated. In light of the acquired results, it was found that the loss ratio values obtained at different locations within the same region show significant variation. In addition, it was observed that the structural damage states change from serviceable to repairable or repairable to unrepairable. Within the scope of the study, 126 average loss functions were presented that could be easily used by non-experts in earthquake engineering, regardless of structural analysis. These functions, which offer loss ratios for varying hazard levels, are valuable outputs that allow preliminary risk assessment in the region and yield sensible outcomes for insurance activities.

Development Plan for the Consequence Management in Response to Large-Scale Wildfire Disasters Using Air Force Transport Aircraft (C-130) (공군 수송기(C-130)를 활용한 대형산불 재난 대응 시 사후관리(CM) 발전방안)

  • Sangduk Kim;Minki Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.232-243
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Recently, large-scale forest fires caused by climate change, natural disasters, and human factors have been increasing every year in the East Coast and Taebaek Mountains region. Although forest fire extinguishing using helicopters is currently increasing, the need to introduce air force transport aircraft has continued to be raised due to the importance of early fire extinguishment to respond to large forest fires and the difficulty of extinguishing forest fires between sheep. This study seeks to present a plan for developing a post-fire management system for several aspects - achieving operational objectives, overcoming the operating environment, selecting a staging area, and efficient operation measures - to efficiently perform forest fire extinguishing missions using Air Force transport aircraft. Method: Based on literature research on forest fire extinguishing, forest fire extinguishing experiments using fixed-wing aircraft, and the operation status and operation method of forest fire extinguishing helicopters, the pros and cons of helicopter operation and the effects of large forest fire extinguishing using a large transport aircraft (C-130) Analyze the effectiveness of operation through analysis. Results: When extinguishing a large forest fire, an effective CM (Consequence Management) application plan was derived, including effective operation, control, command system, dispatch request, and forest fire extinguishment when integrating helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft (C-130). Conclusion: The application of the concept of CM (Consequence Management) is partially applied to some areas of chemical, biological, and radiological (CBRNE) protection in Korea, but efficient operation, control, and command systems are established when integrated operation of helicopters and large aircraft (C-130) in forest fire extinguishment. the concept of CM (Consequence Management), which is operated in advanced countries, was applied for safety management, dispatch requests, and forest fire extinguishing, thereby contributing to the establishment of a more advanced disaster and post-disaster management system.

A Study on Standardization of Optimum Transportation Routing based on GIS for Railway HAZMAT Transportation (GIS 기반 철도 위험물 최적수송경로도출 표준화에 관한 연구)

  • Paeng, Jung-Goang;Kim, Si-Gon;Park, Min-Kyu;Kang, Seung-Pil
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.201-211
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    • 2009
  • The types and quantities of Hazmat and Hazmat transportation are gradually increasing, keeping pace with industrialization and urbanization. At present the safety management for Hazmat transportation only considers reducing accident probability, but even when an accident involving Hazmat-carrying vehicles occurs, that is not regarded as a Hazmat-related accident if the Hazmats do not leak out from the containers carrying them. Thus the methods to reduce risk (Risk=Probability$\times$Consequence) have to be developed by incorporating accident probability and consequence. By using Geographic Information System (GIS), a technical method is invented and is automatically able to evaluate the consequence by different types of Hazmat. Thus this study analyzed the degree of risk on the links classified by the Hazmat transport pathways. In order to mitigate the degree of risk, a method of 7-step risk management on Hazmat transportation in railway industries can be suggested. (1st step: building up GIS DB, 2nd step: calculating accident probability on each link, 3rd step: calculating consequence by Hazmat types, 4th step: determination of risk, 5th step: analysis of alternative plans for mitigating the risk, 6th: measure of effectiveness against each alternative, and 7th step: action plans to be weak probability and consequence by the range recommended from ALARP). In conclusion, those 7 steps are used as a standardization method of optimum transportation routing. And to increase the efficiency of optimum transportation routing, optional route can be revise by verification.

Genetically Optimized Rule-based Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks (진화론적 최적 규칙베이스 퍼지다항식 뉴럴네트워크)

  • Park Byoung-Jun;Kim Hyun-Ki;Oh Sung-Kwun
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, a new architecture and comprehensive design methodology of genetically optimized Rule-based Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks(gRFPNN) are introduced and a series of numeric experiments are carried out. The architecture of the resulting gRFPNN results from asynergistic usage of the hybrid system generated by combining rule-based Fuzzy Neural Networks(FNN) with polynomial neural networks (PNN). FNN contributes to the formation of the premise part of the overall rule-based structure of the gRFPNN. The consequence part of the gRFPNN is designed using PNNs. At the premise part of the gRFPNN, FNN exploits fuzzy set based approach designed by using space partitioning in terms of individual variables and comes in two fuzzy inference forms: simplified and linear. As the consequence part of the gRFPNN, the development of the genetically optimized PNN dwells on two general optimization mechanism: the structural optimization is realized via GAs whereas in case of the parametric optimization we proceed with a standard least square method-based learning. To evaluate the performance of the gRFPNN, the models are experimented with the use of several representative numerical examples. A comparative analysis shows that the proposed gRFPNN are models with higher accuracy as well as more superb predictive capability than other intelligent models presented previously.

Analysis of Elementary Pre-service Teachers' Concern on Software Education Using the Concerns-Based Adoption Model (관심기반수용모형을 활용한 초등 예비교사의 소프트웨어 교육 관심도 분석)

  • Jo, Miheon
    • Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.535-543
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this research is to analyze the current status of elementary pre-service teachers' concern on SW education using the Concern-Based Adoption Model, and to investigate issues to be considered in pre-service teacher education. The participants were 137 senior students enrolled in a university of education. A survey was conducted using the Stages of Concerns Questionnaire(SoCQ). Elementary pre-service teachers' concern on SW education was turned out to be the highest at the awareness stage, and the lowest at the consequence stage, and thus showed the 'nonuser' pattern. It also showed a 'positive nonuser' pattern by indicating a little more concern at the collaboration and refocusing stages than the consequence stage concerning the impact of SW education. In addition, no significant difference was found according to pre-service teachers' gender. In comparison with that, significant differences were found according to their programming level at the awareness, personal, consequence and collaboration stages. Based on the results of the research, suggestions were made for the improvement of the pre-service teachers' SW education program concerning the presentation of related information and the enhancement of programming capabilities.

The Method of Consequence Analysis of the Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion Accident by the Continuous Release of Gas-Liquid Flow for the Small and Medium Size Enterprises(SMS) (기-액흐름 연속누출에 의한 개방공간 증기운 폭발사고를 중심으로 중.소규모 사업장을 위한 사고 영향평가 방법)

  • 장서일;이헌창;조지훈;김태옥
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.64-70
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    • 2003
  • For the unconfined vapor cloud explosion(UVCE) accident by the continuous release of gas-liquid flow of various saturated liquids in a vessel at ground level, overpressures were estimated by TNT equivalency model with two estimation methods, such as UVCE I model based on a constant release time and UVCEII model based on a real travel time of vapor by dispersion and analyzed with various release conditions. As a simulation result the simple, easy, and correct method of evaluation of consequences of the UVCE accident was proposed by using consequences of UVCE I model and correlation equations for differences of overpressures between UVCE models, so that this evaluation method could be used easily in the small and medium size enterprises without using the dispersion model.

A real-time operation aiding expert system using the symptom tree and the fault-consequence digraph

  • Oh, Jeon-Keun;Yoon, En-Sup;Choi, Byung-Nam
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1989.10a
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    • pp.805-812
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    • 1989
  • An efficient diagnostic approach for real-time operation aiding expert system in chemical process plants is discussed. The approach is based on the hybrid of the simplified symptom tree(SST) and the fault consequence digraph(FCD), representation of propagation patterns of fault states. The SST generates fault hypothesis efficiently and the FCD resolve the real fault accurately. Frame based knowledge representation and object-oriented programming make diagnostic system general and efficient. Truth maintenance system enables robust pattern matching and provides enhanced explain facilities. A prototype expert system for supports operation of naphtha furnaces process, called OASYS, has been built and tested to demonstrate this methodology. Utilization of diversified process symbolic data, produced using dynamic normal standards, overcomes the problem of qualitative Boolean reasoning and enhance the applicability.

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