• Title/Summary/Keyword: Confidence Value

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Optimal Monitoring Frequency Estimation Using Confidence Intervals for the Temporal Model of a Zooplankton Species Number Based on Operational Taxonomic Units at the Tongyoung Marine Science Station

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kim, Sung;Lee, Youn-Ho;Jung, Gila;Kim, Choong-Gon;Jeong, Dageum;Lee, Yucheol;Kang, Mee-Hye;Kim, Hana;Choi, Hae-Young;Oh, Jina;Myong, Jung-Goo;Choi, Hee-Jung
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2017
  • Temporal changes in the number of zooplankton species are important information for understanding basic characteristics and species diversity in marine ecosystems. The aim of the present study was to estimate the optimal monitoring frequency (OMF) to guarantee and predict the minimum number of species occurrences for studies concerning marine ecosystems. The OMF is estimated using the temporal number of zooplankton species through bi-weekly monitoring of zooplankton species data according to operational taxonomic units in the Tongyoung coastal sea. The optimal model comprises two terms, a constant (optimal mean) and a cosine function with a one-year period. The confidence interval (CI) range of the model with monitoring frequency was estimated using a bootstrap method. The CI range was used as a reference to estimate the optimal monitoring frequency. In general, the minimum monitoring frequency (numbers per year) directly depends on the target (acceptable) estimation error. When the acceptable error (range of the CI) increases, the monitoring frequency decreases because the large acceptable error signals a rough estimation. If the acceptable error (unit: number value) of the number of the zooplankton species is set to 3, the minimum monitoring frequency (times per year) is 24. The residual distribution of the model followed a normal distribution. This model can be applied for the estimation of the minimal monitoring frequency that satisfies the target error bounds, as this model provides an estimation of the error of the zooplankton species numbers with monitoring frequencies.

Effect of Expectancy-Value and Self-Efficacy on the Satisfaction with Metaverse Learning (메타버스를 활용한 교육에 대한 학습자의 기대 - 가치와 자기효능감이 교육 만족도에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Ji-Hee;Chung, Dong-Hun
    • Informatization Policy
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.26-42
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    • 2022
  • In order to evaluate the usefulness of metaverse learning from the learner's point of view, this study 1) evaluated whether the expectancy-value of the class was satisfied before and after the learner used the metaverse learning platform and 2) verified factors affecting metaverse learning satisfaction with regard to the self-efficacy and expectancy-value of learners. Expectancy-value was evaluated by the learning effect, communication, class involvement, and learning attitude, whereas self-efficacy was evaluated by preference for task difficulty, self-regulation efficacy, and self-confidence. As a result of a study targeting 70 college students who applied for a few courses using the metaverse platform at a university in the northeastern part of Seoul, learners were found to have high expectations and values for learning before using the metaverse platform, but both were not statistically satisfied after use. In addition, the higher the self-efficacy of the learner, the higher the satisfaction with the metaverse learning, and statistically significant results were found in the task-difficulty preference and self-regulatory efficacy among the sub-factors of self-efficacy. There is a negative causal relationship between expectancy-value factors and satisfaction with metaverse learning. This study implies that it is a learner-centered evaluation of metaverse learning, revealing the expectancy-value effect and factors influencing the satisfaction with metaverse learning.

Why Is a b-value Range of 1500-2000 s/mm2 Optimal for Evaluating Prostatic Index Lesions on Synthetic Diffusion-Weighted Imaging?

  • So Yeon Cha;EunJu Kim;Sung Yoon Park
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.922-930
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    • 2021
  • Objective: It is uncertain why a b-value range of 1500-2000 s/mm2 is optimal. This study was aimed at qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing the optimal b-value range of synthetic diffusion-weighted imaging (sDWI) for evaluating prostatic index lesions. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 92 patients who underwent DWI and targeted biopsy for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-suggested index lesions. We generated sDWI at a b-value range of 1000-3000 s/mm2 using dedicated software and true DWI data at b-values of 0, 100, and 1000 s/mm2. We hypothesized that lesion conspicuity would be best when the background (i.e., MRI-suggested benign prostatic [bP] and periprostatic [pP] regions) signal intensity (SI) is suppressed and becomes homogeneous. To prove this hypothesis, we performed both qualitative and quantitative analyses. For qualitative analysis, two independent readers analyzed the b-value showing the best visual conspicuity of an MRI-suggested index lesion. For quantitative analysis, the readers assessed the b-value showing the same bP and pP region SI. The 95% confidence interval (CI) or interquartile range of qualitatively and quantitatively selected optimal b-values was assessed, and the mean difference between qualitatively and quantitatively selected b-values was investigated. Results: The 95% CIs of optimal b-values from qualitative and quantitative analyses were 1761-1805 s/mm2 and 1640-1771 s/mm2 (median, 1790 s/mm2 vs. 1705 s/mm2; p = 0.003) for reader 1, and 1835-1895 s/mm2 and 1705-1841 s/mm2 (median, 1872 s/mm2 vs. 1763 s/mm2; p = 0.022) for reader 2, respectively. Interquartile ranges of qualitatively and quantitatively selected optimal b-values were 1735-1873 s/mm2 and 1573-1867 s/mm2 for reader 1, and 1775-1945 s/mm2 and 1591-1955 s/mm2 for reader 2, respectively. Bland-Altman plots consistently demonstrated a mean difference of less than 100 s/mm2 between qualitatively and quantitatively selected optimal b-values. Conclusion: b-value range showing a homogeneous background signal may be optimal for evaluating prostatic index lesions on sDWI. Our qualitative and quantitative data consistently recommend b-values of 1500-2000 s/mm2.

Demand Forecast of Tourists Based on Feasibility Rate -Focusing on installation of offshore cable car in Songdo, Busan- (실현율을 이용한 관광 수요 예측 - 부산 송도해상케이블카 설치를 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Han-Joo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.179-190
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    • 2015
  • Local governments are commercializing natural environment, one of tourist commodities, to ensure that the proceeds from sale of tourist commodities are returned to local residents(Han Yeong-joo, Lee Moo-yong, 2001). In Songdo beach, Busan, cable car dismantled in 1980s due to the run-down state of the facility is poised for restoration in 26 years and can be said to be of great value as tourist commodity of the region and necessitates the demand forecast. To overcome limitations of demand forecast in existing studies, the analysis was made based on feasibility rate(Gruber index, self-confidence index), the realizable predictive value, for the willingness-to-visit rate when forecasting the demand of visitors. The results of demand forecast suggested that number of visitors would range from approximately 550,684 persons to 1,514,416 persons when the target region for demand forecast was confined to Busan Metropolitan City, and was in the range between 1,013,740 persons and 2,854,340 persons when the target region was expanded to cover Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam. Based on the results of this study, estimation of visitors and demand forecast for Songdo offshore cable car restoration which reflect characteristics of Songdo beach of Busan would provide important basis for proceeding with tourism industry development project.

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A Study on VaR Stability for Operational Risk Management (운영리스크 VaR 추정값의 안정성검증 방법 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Joong;Kim, Woo-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Cheol;Im, Jong-Ho;Cho, Sang-Hee;Kim, Ah-Hyoun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.697-708
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    • 2008
  • Operational risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or external events. The advanced measurement approach proposed by Basel committee uses loss distribution approach(LDA) which quantifies operational loss based on bank's own historical data and measurement system. LDA involves two distribution fittings(frequency and severity) and then generates aggregate loss distribution by employing mathematical convolution. An objective validation for the operational risk measurement is essential because the operational risk measurement allows flexibility and subjective judgement to calculate regulatory capital. However, the methodology to verify the soundness of the operational risk measurement was not fully developed because the internal operational loss data had been extremely sparse and the modeling of extreme tail was very difficult. In this paper, we propose a methodology for the validation of operational risk measurement based on bootstrap confidence intervals of operational VaR(value at risk). We derived two methods to generate confidence intervals of operational VaR.

Pharmacokinetic Properties and Bioequivalence of Cefcapene Pivoxil Hydrochloride 75 mg in Korean Healthy Volunteers (건강한 한국인 피험자에서 Cefcapene Pivoxil Hydrochloride 75 mg 제제의 생물학적동등성시험)

  • Jeon, Ji-Young;Im, Yong-Jin;Hwang, Min-Ho;Kim, Yun-Jeong;Han, Su-Mi;Jo, Myeong-Jin;Kim, Hee-Sun;Kim, Sun-Young;Chae, Soo-Wan;Kim, Kang-Seog;Kim, Min-Gul
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.9-12
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    • 2012
  • Background: Cefcapene pivoxil hydrochloride, is an ester-type oral cephem antibiotic. This study was performed to compare the pharmacokinetics and evaluate the bioequivalence of two cefcapene pivoxil hydrochloride 75 mg formulations. Method: In a randomized $2{\times}2$ crossover study, sixty healthy male volunteers were randomly assigned into two groups. After a single dose of 75 mg cefcapene pivoxil hydrochloride oral administration, blood samples were collected at specific time intervals from 0-12 hours. The plasma concentrations of cefcapene pivoxil hydrochloride were determined by LC-MS/MS. The pharmacokinetic parameters were determined from the plasma concentration-time profiles of both formulations. The pharmacokinetic parameters such as $AUC_{last}$, $AUC_{inf}$ and $C_{max}$, were calculated and the 90% confidence intervals for test/reference ratio for pharmacokinetic parameters were obtained by analysis of variance on logarithmically transformed data. Results: The mean value for $AUC_{last}$ in test and reference drug was $4053.1{\pm}876.5\;ng{\cdot}hr/mL$ and $3595.7{\pm}1029.1\;ng{\cdot}h/mL$, respectively. The mean value for $C_{max}$ in test and reference drug was $1324.9{\pm}321.4$ ng/mL and $1159.1{\pm}335.9$ ng/mL, respectively. The 90% confidence intervals of the $AUC_{last}$ and $C_{max}$ ratio for test drug and reference drug were log 1.09-log1.22 and log 1.09-log1.24, respectively. No adverse events were reported by subjects or found on analysis of vital signs or laboratory tests. Conclusion: This single dose study found that the test and reference products met the regulatory criteria for bioequivalence in these health volunteers. Both formulations were safe and well tolerated in 75 mg of cefcapene pivoxil hydrochloride.

Use of Information Component (IC) and Relative Risk (RR) for Signal Detection of Drug Interactions of Clopidogrel : Data-mining Study Using Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service (HIRA) Claims Database (정보 성분과 상대위험도를 이용한 clopidogrel의 약물상호작용 시그널 검색 : 건강보험데이터베이스를 대상으로 한 데이터마이닝 연구)

  • Kim, Jin-Hyung;Choi, Chung-Am;Oh, Jung-Mi;Son, Sung-Ho;Shin, Wan-Gyoon
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.90-99
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    • 2011
  • Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service (HIRA) claims database has a high potential to detect signals of new drug interactions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of information component (IC) and relative risk (RR) as a tool for signal detection, and to analyze the possible drug interactions caused by clopidogrel using HIRA claims database. This study was performed in elderly patients over 65 years of age who administered clopidogrel from January 2005 to June 2006 in South Korea. Serious Adverse Events (SAEs) as drug interactions of clopidogrel were defined as any ambulatory hospitalization for ischemic diseases within comcomitant medication period of clopidogrel. Information Component (IC) and Relative Risk (RR) were calculated to compare the proportion of drug-SAE pairs in order to select drug specific SAEs. IC and RR signals of clopidogrel drug interaction were screened when IC's 95% confidence interval was greater than 0 and RR's 95% confidence interval was greater than 1 respectively. All detected signals were compared to references such as $Micromedex^{(R)}$ and 2010 Drug Interaction $Facts^{TM}$. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value and negative predicted value were used to evaluate usefulness of this method. Among 13,252,930 cases of elderly patients who co-administered clopidogrel and other drugs, 47,485 cases were detected as SAE. Of these, one-hundred nine cases were detected by the IC-based data-mining approach and ninety one cases were detected by the RR-based data-mining approach. Total One-hundred sixty three unrecognized signals were detected by IC or RR. Twelve signals from IC-based data-mining (57.1%) were corresponded with drug interactions from references and eight signals from RR-based data-mining (38.1%) were corresponded with drug interactions from references. These signals include proton pump inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and HMG CoA reductase Inhibitors, which were known to affect CYP450 metabolism. Further studies using HIRA claims database are necessary to develop appropriate data-mining measure.

Analysis of the Characteristics of Middle School Students' Science Academic Achievement Based on the Results of NAEA in the 2009 Revised Curriculum (학업성취도 평가 결과에 기초한 2009 개정 교육과정 시기의 중학생의 과학 학업성취 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Jaebong;Ku, Jaok
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.429-436
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we examined students' science academic achievement through an analysis of the national assessment of educational achievement(NAEA) from 2015 to 2018 when the 2009 revised curriculum was applied. This study analyzed achievement average scores by gender and region and also analyzed the trend of the rate of achievement level in order to understand the characteristics of students' academic achievement. In addition, we analyzed the characteristics of the affective aspect using a survey of students' attitudes (confidence, interest, value, and willingness to learn) toward science. The main findings are as follows; First, the average science score shows a tendency to decrease year by year at the middle school level. Second, when analyzed by achievement level, the decline in the advanced group was large, and the rate of the below basic group increased. Third, comparisons of the average achievement scores by gender, female students' scores were generally high and the difference in achievement scores between male and female students tended to increase. Fourth, a characteristic gap was found between regional scales that increased in the advanced group. The results of a questionnaire on students' attitudes show that the four constructs of the students' attitudes had a significant correlation with the average achievement scores. In addition, the mean and positive response rates on the confidence, interest, and value of science in the above proficiency group increased but decreased in the below basic group. These results can be used as basic data for revising the curriculum, improving teaching and learning, and establishing educational policies.

Relationship between Exposure Concentrations to Methylene Chloride in Air and Carboxyhemoglobin Levels in Blood of Workers Engaged in Blowing, and Cleaning Operations (발포 및 세척 공정 근로자의 공기중 Methylene Chloride 노출 농도와 혈중 Carboxyhemoglobin 수준간의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Yong Chul;Kim, Yang Ho;Yi, Gwang Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 1999
  • The objectives of this study were to evaluate exposures to airborne methylene chloride and postshift carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) in blood of workers engaged in processes using blowing or cleaning agents, and to investigate correlation between methylene chloride concentrations and the blood COHb levels of workers. The geometric mean (GM) of workers' exposures (8 hour-time weighted averages, TWA) to airborne methylene chloride during cleaning molds using rags wetted with the solvent in the manufacture of flexible polyurethane foam (GM = 61.4 ppm), during operating the dip tank for cleaning molds in the manufacture of lens (GM = 61.0 ppm), and during cleaning the blowing nozzles by spraying the solvent in the manufacture of shoes (GM = 117.2 ppm) were exceeded the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) Threshold Limit Value ($TLV^{(R)}$)-Time Weighted Average (TWA) (50 ppm). The COHb levels were significantly different among groups (p<0.05). The average COHh levels in blood of non-smoking workers were 2.0% in. low-level (<50 ppm) exposure group, and 3.9 % in high-level (>50ppm) exposure group. The average COHb levels in smoking workers were 3.1% in low-level exposure group, and 4.8% in high-level exposure group. The blood COHb levels of no-exposed workers to methylene chloride were 1.8% in non-smoking group, and 2.8% in smoking group. It was found that the COHb level dependeds on the methylene chloride concentration and smoking habit, and was highly correlated with methylene chloride concentration in air. The correlation coefficient was 0.81 among non-smoking workers. The estimated COHb level (3.6%) and 95% upper confidence limit (4.0%) corresponding to TLV-TWA of methylene chloride exceeded the current ACGIH Biological Exposure Index (COHb 3.5%) for carbon monoxide. The estimated COHb level (5.4%) at 100 ppm exceeded the standard (5%) recommended by National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) for preventing adverse cardiovascular effect. The estimated COHb value and 95% upper confidence limit at 25 ppm of the Occupational Safety and Health. Adminstration (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limit-TWA (PEL-TWA) were 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively. It is suggested that COHb in blood be kept below 3.0% to comply with OSHA PEL-TWA.

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The impact to Learning-accomplishing rate on mutual cooperation studies of small group by different level class (수준별 체동수업에 의한 소집단 상호 협력 학습이 학업성취도에 미치는 영향)

  • 이종연;박세천
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.587-603
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    • 1998
  • Being in Learning-accomplishing rate on mutual cooperation studies of small group by different class, we can find that the sujective class of high group is much more efficient than the compared class of high group and that the subjective class of low group is more efficient than the compared class of low group as times goes. Moreover, in analysis of all directions on mathematical attitude, high group appears to be a great efficient in all areas such as confidence, flexibility, reaction, value, etc. and low group seems to have a little effect, by comparing the subjective class with the compared class. A. The result of a scholastic ability test High group had a great effect in the result of the first (Number and an expression) and second(An equation of a figure) scholastic ability test. As the time of research goes, the difference of average between the subjective class and the compared class has increased. Low group had no effect in the result of the first (Number and an expression) and the second (An equation of figure) scholastic ability test. But the difference of average grade between the subjective class and the compared class proved to be some efficient as time goes. (the first test is 0.94 and the second test is 3.33)We can find that the result of the third test (An exponent and log function) turned out be efficient. B. The change of mathematical attitudeHigh group had a great effect in confidence(+1.21), fiexibility(+1.92), will(-0.06), curiosity(+2.64), reaction(+1.50), value(+1.44). Low group appeared to be a little efficient in comparison between the subjective class and compared class. the average of both the subjective class and the compared class in low group decreased if not the result of pre-test but in that of pose-test. Therefore, we can find that the difference between mathematics of maddle school and that of high school gets bigger in Low group.C. The result of a question examinationAfter this research, the reaction that It is helpful to studying accomplishm- ent is 33.7%, the reaction that It is not helpful is 14.7%. After all, this research appears to be a positive reaction. After this study, the change of studying will seems to be much more not in Low group but in High group.

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