• 제목/요약/키워드: Confidence Evaluation

검색결과 787건 처리시간 0.024초

발전설비 보일러 튜브 용접부의 잔여수명평가 신뢰성 향상을 위한 기계적 물성 변화 연구 (A Study on Mechanical Properties Changes to Improve the Confidence of Remaining Life Evaluation for the Weldment of Power Plant Boiler Tube)

  • 오병진;장중순
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • 제31권5호
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    • pp.26-34
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    • 2013
  • Boiler equipment in power plant is always being operated in harsh conditions and severely exposed to the extreme environment of high temperature. Therefore periodically the state of devices should be checked, diagnosed, and analyzed to ensure the reliability of the equipment. Traditionally, such a diagnosis is based one or two physical properties of the sample taken from the equipment like hardness, microstructure, etc.. However, to enhance the confidence of the diagnosis, it is necessary to synthesize those properties together. This paper is to propose such a synthetic procedure for T23 which was developed to be used in $569^{\circ}C/596^{\circ}C$ condition. Creep test and accelerated degradation test were performed simultaneously, and the physical properties such as microstructure, tensile strength, yield strength, hardness, and indentation properties were measured. This paper proposes a method of determining the remaining life by quantitative comparison. It will provide the basis of evaluating life assessment more objective and reliable.

이동 무선 환경에서의 TCM 및 MTCM의 성능 비교 평가 (A Study on the performance evaluation with TCM and MTCM in the mobile radio environment)

  • 김민호
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제5권4호
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    • pp.90-95
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    • 2000
  • 통신의 신뢰도를 향상시키고 오율이 적은 통신을 하고자 할 때 부호화 기법을 사용하며, 블록코드나 콘볼루션 코드와 같은 에러 정정부호를 사용하려면 전송할 정보비트에 부가정보를 추가하여야 한다. 그러나 부가정보를 사용하면 신뢰성은 커지나 대역폭 효율은 떨어진다. 따라서 대역폭이 제한된 환경에서 데이터 전송률의 변동없이 큰 부호화 이득을 얻을 수 있는 방법이 꾸준히 연구되어 왔다. 본 논문에서는 Ungerboeck가 설계한 TCM과 Divsalar가 제안한 다중화 지수 2의 다중 트렐리스 변조 (Multiple trellis-coded modulation) 최적 부호기를 설계하고 상태수에 따른 TCM과 MTCM의 성능을 Monte Carlo 방법을 이용하여 비교 평가하였다.

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Gamma 및 Generalized Gamma 분포 모형에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도 (I) -Gamma 분포 모형을 중심으로- (Derivation of Optimal Design Flood by Gamma and Generalized Gamma Distribution Models(I) - On the Gamma Distribution Models -)

  • 이순혁;박명근;정연수;맹승진;류경식
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제39권3호
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by Gamma distribution models of the annual maximum series at eight watersheds along Geum , Yeong San and Seom Jin river Systems, Design floods obtained by different methods for evaluation of parameters and for plotting positions in the Gamma distribution models were compared by the relative mean errors and graphical fit along with 95% confidence interval plotted on Gamma probability paper. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1.Adequacy for the analysis of flood flow data used in this study was confirmed by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity and detection of Outliers. 2.Basic statistics and parameters were calculated by Gamma distribution models using Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. 3.It was found that design floods derived by the method of maximum likelihood and Hazen plotting position formular of two parameter Gamma distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by other methods for parameters and for plotting positions from the viewpoint of relative mean errors. 4.Reliability of derived design floods by both maximum likelihood and method of moments with two parameter Gamma distribution was acknowledged within 95% confidence interval.

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항목 알에프엠 점수를 고려한 가중 연관성 규칙 (Weighted association rules considering item RFM scores)

  • 박희창
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제21권6호
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    • pp.1147-1154
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    • 2010
  • 데이터 마이닝의 중요 목표 중의 하나는 여러 변수들 간의 관계를 발견하고 결정하는 것이다. 이를 위해 필요한 기법인 연관성 규칙은 각 항목들 간의 관련성을 찾아내는 데 활용되며, 지지도, 신뢰도, 향상도 등의 연관성 측도를 기반으로 두 항목간의 관계를 수치화함으로써 의미 있는 규칙을 찾아 낸다. 본 논문에서는 수익성이 가장 높은 고객을 찾기 위해 고객 정보를 이용하는 기법으로 가장 널리 사용되어온 방법인 알에프엠 기법을 항목에 적용하여 항목의 알에프엠 점수를 항목의 중요도로 고려하여 가중 연관성 규칙의 평가기준을 제시하였다. 모의실험에서는 일반적인 연관성 규칙과 알에프엠 점수를 가중치로 한 가중 연관성 규칙의 유용성을 비교하였다.

A methodology to estimate earthquake induced worst failure probability of inelastic systems

  • Akbas, Bulent;Nadar, Mustafa;Shen, Jay
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.187-201
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    • 2008
  • Earthquake induced hysteretic energy demand for a structure can be used as a limiting value of a certain performance level in seismic design of structures. In cases where it is larger than the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity of the structure, failure will occur. To be able to select the limiting value of hysteretic energy for a particular earthquake hazard level, it is required to define the variation of hysteretic energy in terms of probabilistic terms. This study focuses on the probabilistic evaluation of earthquake induced worst failure probability and approximate confidence intervals for inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems with a typical steel moment connection based on hysteretic energy. For this purpose, hysteretic energy demand is predicted for a set of SDOF systems subject to an ensemble of moderate and severe EQGMs, while the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity is evaluated through the previously published cyclic test data on full-scale steel beam-to-column connections. The failure probability corresponding to the worst possible case is determined based on the hysteretic energy demand and dissipation capacity. The results show that as the capacity to demand ratio increases, the failure probability decreases dramatically. If this ratio is too small, then the failure is inevitable.

A Quantitative Team Situation Awareness Measurement Method Considering Technical and Nontechnical Skills of Teams

  • Yim, Ho Bin;Seong, Poong Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제48권1호
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    • pp.144-152
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    • 2016
  • Human capabilities, such as technical/nontechnical skills, have begun to be recognized as crucial factors for nuclear safety. One of the most common ways to improve human capabilities in general is training. The nuclear industry has constantly developed and used training as a tool to increase plant efficiency and safety. An integrated training framework was suggested for one of those efforts, especially during simulation training sessions of nuclear power plant operation teams. The developed training evaluation methods are based on measuring the levels of situation awareness of teams in terms of the level of shared confidence and consensus as well as the accuracy of team situation awareness. Verification of the developed methods was conducted by analyzing the training data of real nuclear power plant operation teams. The teams that achieved higher level of shared confidence showed better performance in solving problem situations when coupled with high consensus index values. The accuracy of nuclear power plant operation teams' situation awareness was approximately the same or showed a similar trend as that of senior reactor operators' situation awareness calculated by a situation awareness accuracy index (SAAI). Teams that had higher SAAI values performed better and faster than those that had lower SAAI values.

변형된 강도함수를 적용한 소프트웨어 신뢰모형의 신뢰성능 비교 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Reliability Performance Evaluation of Software Reliability Model Using Modified Intensity Function)

  • 김희철;문송철
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we was compared the reliability performance of the software reliability model, which applied the Goel-Okumoto model developed using the exponential distribution, to the logarithmic function modifying the intensity function and the Rayleigh form. As a result, the log-type model is relatively smaller in the mean squared error compared to the Rayleigh model and the Goel-Okumoto model. The logarithmic model is more efficient because of the determination coefficient is relatively higher than the Goel-Okumoto model. The estimated determination coefficient of the proposed model was estimated to be more than 80% which is a useful model in the field of software reliability. Reliability has been shown to be relatively higher in the log-type model than the Rayleigh model and the Goel-Okumoto model as the mission time has elapsed. Through this study, software designer and users can identify the software failure characteristics using mean square error, decision coefficient. The confidence interval can be used as a basic guideline when applying the intensity function that reflects the characteristics of the lifetime distribution.

Balance Evaluation after Reconstruction of Medial Patellar Luxation in Small-Sized Dogs with Wii Balance Board

  • Lee, Shinho;Lee, Joo-Myoung;Park, Hyunjung;Cha, Yuri;Cheong, Jongtae
    • 한국임상수의학회지
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    • 제36권6호
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    • pp.301-305
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    • 2019
  • Wii® balance board (WBB, Nintendo, Japan) is a device that can measure and record the center of pressure path length (CPPL) and 95% confidence ellipse area (Area 95) in relation to body sway. For evaluating measure of improvement after reconstruction of medial patellar luxation (MPL) in small sized dogs, A total of 6 dogs with limping and lameness gait attributed to Grade II, III or IV MPL were evaluated. Dogs were measured for difference of extension and flexion range of motion in the stifle (dROM), muscle mass, lameness, willingness to bear weight on the affected limb while standing, and willingness to lift the contralateral limb scores, CPPL and Area 95 of WBB on pre-surgery, post-surgery 4, 8 weeks. CPPL was significantly different on pre-surgery compared with post-surgery 8 weeks (p < 0.05). Except for CPPL, measured variables were significantly different on pre-surgery compared with post-surgery 4 and post-surgery 8 weeks (p < 0.01).

기상청 MOS 예측값 적용을 통한 풍력 발전량 예측 타당성 연구 (Feasibility Study on Wind Power Forecasting Using MOS Forecasting Result of KMA)

  • 김경보;박윤호;박정근;고경남;허종철
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.46-53
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    • 2010
  • In this paper the feasibility of wind power forecasting from MOS(Model Output Statistics) was evaluated at Gosan area in Jeju during February to Octoberin 2008. The observed wind data from wind turbine was compared with 24 hours and 48 hours forecasting wind data from MOS predicting. Coefficient of determination of measured wind speed from wind turbine and 24 hours forecasting from MOS was around 0.53 and 48 hours was around 0.30. These determination factors were increased to 0.65 from 0.53 and 0.35 from 0.30, respectively, when it comes to the prevailing wind direction($300^{\circ}\sim60^{\circ}$). Wind power forecasting ratio in 24 hours of MOS showed a value of 0.81 within 70% confidence interval and it also showed 0.65 in 80% confidence interval. It is suggested that the additional study of weather conditions be carried out when large error happened in MOS forecasting.

Sentiment Analysis From Images - Comparative Study of SAI-G and SAI-C Models' Performances Using AutoML Vision Service from Google Cloud and Clarifai Platform

  • Marcu, Daniela;Danubianu, Mirela
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제21권9호
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    • pp.179-184
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    • 2021
  • In our study we performed a sentiments analysis from the images. For this purpose, we used 153 images that contain: people, animals, buildings, landscapes, cakes and objects that we divided into two categories: images that suggesting a positive or a negative emotion. In order to classify the images using the two categories, we created two models. The SAI-G model was created with Google's AutoML Vision service. The SAI-C model was created on the Clarifai platform. The data were labeled in a preprocessing stage, and for the SAI-C model we created the concepts POSITIVE (POZITIV) AND NEGATIVE (NEGATIV). In order to evaluate the performances of the two models, we used a series of evaluation metrics such as: Precision, Recall, ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve, Precision-Recall curve, Confusion Matrix, Accuracy Score and Average precision. Precision and Recall for the SAI-G model is 0.875, at a confidence threshold of 0.5, while for the SAI-C model we obtained much lower scores, respectively Precision = 0.727 and Recall = 0.571 for the same confidence threshold. The results indicate a lower classification performance of the SAI-C model compared to the SAI-G model. The exception is the value of Precision for the POSITIVE concept, which is 1,000.