• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.22 no.1
• /
• pp.139-157
• /
• 2016

Bankruptcy involves considerable costs, so it can have significant effects on a country's economy. Thus, bankruptcy prediction is an important issue. Over the past several decades, many researchers have addressed topics associated with bankruptcy prediction. Early research on bankruptcy prediction employed conventional statistical methods such as univariate analysis, discriminant analysis, multiple regression, and logistic regression. Later on, many studies began utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as inductive learning, neural networks, and case-based reasoning. Currently, ensemble models are being utilized to enhance the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification involves combining multiple classifiers to obtain more accurate predictions than those obtained using individual models. Ensemble learning techniques are known to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Base classifiers in the ensemble must be as accurate and diverse as possible in order to enhance the generalization ability of an ensemble model. Commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers include bagging, boosting, and random subspace. The random subspace method selects a random feature subset for each classifier from the original feature space to diversify the base classifiers of an ensemble. Each ensemble member is trained by a randomly chosen feature subspace from the original feature set, and predictions from each ensemble member are combined by an aggregation method. The k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier is robust with respect to variations in the dataset but is very sensitive to changes in the feature space. For this reason, KNN is a good classifier for the random subspace method. The KNN random subspace ensemble model has been shown to be very effective for improving an individual KNN model. The k parameter of KNN base classifiers and selected feature subsets for base classifiers play an important role in determining the performance of the KNN ensemble model. However, few studies have focused on optimizing the k parameter and feature subsets of base classifiers in the ensemble. This study proposed a new ensemble method that improves upon the performance KNN ensemble model by optimizing both k parameters and feature subsets of base classifiers. A genetic algorithm was used to optimize the KNN ensemble model and improve the prediction accuracy of the ensemble model. The proposed model was applied to a bankruptcy prediction problem by using a real dataset from Korean companies. The research data included 1800 externally non-audited firms that filed for bankruptcy (900 cases) or non-bankruptcy (900 cases). Initially, the dataset consisted of 134 financial ratios. Prior to the experiments, 75 financial ratios were selected based on an independent sample t-test of each financial ratio as an input variable and bankruptcy or non-bankruptcy as an output variable. Of these, 24 financial ratios were selected by using a logistic regression backward feature selection method. The complete dataset was separated into two parts: training and validation. The training dataset was further divided into two portions: one for the training model and the other to avoid overfitting. The prediction accuracy against this dataset was used to determine the fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. The validation dataset was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the final model. A 10-fold cross-validation was implemented to compare the performances of the proposed model and other models. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, the classification accuracy of the proposed model was compared with that of other models. The Q-statistic values and average classification accuracies of base classifiers were investigated. The experimental results showed that the proposed model outperformed other models, such as the single model and random subspace ensemble model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
• /
• 1994.07a
• /
• pp.184-215
• /
• 1994

The Hydrogeologic data of 455 water wells comprising geologic and aquifer test were analyzed to determine hydrogeoloic characteristics of Cheju island. The groundwater of Cheju island is occurred in unconsolidated pyroclastic deposits interbedded in highly jointed basaltic and andesic rocks as high level, basal and parabasal types order unconfined condition. The average transmissivity and specific yield of the aquifer are at about 29,300m$^2$/day and 0.12 respectively. The total storage of groundwater is estimated about 44 billion cubic meters(m$^3$). Average annual precipitation is about 3390 million m$^3$ among which average recharge amount is estimated 1494 million m$^3$ equivalent 44.1% of annual precipitation with 638 million m$^3$ of runoff and 1256 million m$^3$ of evapotranspiration. Based on groundwater budget analysis, the sustainable yield is about 620 million m$^3$(41% of annual recharge)and rest of it is discharging into the sea. The geologic logs of recently drilled thermal water wens indicate that very low-permeable marine sediments(Sehwa-ri formation) composed of loosely cemented sandy sat derived from mainly volcanic ashes, at the 1st stage volcanic activity of the area was situated at the 120$\pm$68m below sea level. And also the other low-permeable sedimentary rock called Segipo-formation which is deemed younger than former marine sediment is occured at the area covering north-west and western part of Cheju at the $\pm$70m below sea level. If these impermeable beds are distributed as a basal formation of fresh water zone of Cheju, most of groundwater in Cheju will be para-basal type. These formations will be one of the most important hydrogeologic boundary and groundwater occurences in the area.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
• /
• v.30 no.sup2
• /
• pp.289-293
• /
• 2001

Objectives : The optimal treatment of craniopharyngioma is controversial. Despite recent advances in microsurgical management, complete surgical removal of craniopharyngioma remains very difficult. Radiation added to surgery is effective, but radiation therapy resulted in untoward side effect in young patient. Gamma knife radiosurgery offers the theoretical advantage of a reduced radiation dose to surrounding structures during the treatment of residual or recurrent craniopharyngioma compared with fractionated radiotheraphy. We described retrospective analysis of tumor size and clinical symptoms of patients after gamma knife radiosurgery in residual or recurrent craniopharyngioma were performed. Material and Methods : From September 1990 to January 2000, 18 patients of craniopharyngioma were treated by gamma knife radiosurgery. All patient had undergone surgery, but residual or recurrent tumor was found and all of them treated postoperative gamma knife radiosurgery. The mean age was 19(from 6 to 66) and male to female ratio was 10 to 8 and 8 patients were below 15 years old. In young age group(below age 15), the average volume of the tumor was $2904.8mm^3$ and mean maximal gamma knife dose was 34.9Gy. In old age group(older than 15), the average volume of the tumor was $2590.4mm^3$ and mean maximal gamma knife dose was 45.2Gy. The size of the tumor was average $2730.1mm^3$($88-12000mm^3$), mean average radiation dose was 40.7Gy and the mean prescription dose was 17.6 Gy(4-35Gy) delivered to a median prescription 50.7% isodose. Results : The follow up was from 1 year to 9 years(mean 59.1 months) after gamma knife radiosurgery. The tumor was controlled in 13(72.2%) patients. The tumor decreased in 9 patients and not changed in 4 patients. The tumor size increased in 4(22.2%) patients during follow up period. In two cases the tumor size increased because of its cystic portion was increased, but their solid portion of the tumor was not changed. In another two patients, the solid portion of the tumor was increased. So, one patient underwent reoperation and the other patient underwent operation and repeated gamma knife radiosurgery. The tumor recurred in one case(5.6%) that is a outside of irradiated site. The presenting symptoms were improved in 4 patients(improved visual acuity in 1, controlled increased intracranial presure sign in 3 patients). In one case, visual acuity decreased after gamma knife radiosurgery. The endocrine symptoms were not influenced by gamma knife radiosurgery. Conclusion : Craniopharyngioma can be treated successfully by gamma knife radiosurgery. Causes of the tumor regrowth are inadequate dose planning because of postoperatively poor margination of the tumor, close approximation of optic nerve and residual tumors outside the target lesion. Recurrence can develop 4 years after gamma knife radiosurgery. Volume is important, but the accurate targeting is more important to prevent tumor recurrence. If the tumor definition is not clear during planning gamma knife surgery, long-term image follow up is required.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.137-154
• /
• 2018

Animal infectious diseases, such as avian influenza and foot and mouth disease, occur almost every year and cause huge economic and social damage to the country. In order to prevent this, the anti-quarantine authorities have tried various human and material endeavors, but the infectious diseases have continued to occur. Avian influenza is known to be developed in 1878 and it rose as a national issue due to its high lethality. Food and mouth disease is considered as most critical animal infectious disease internationally. In a nation where this disease has not been spread, food and mouth disease is recognized as economic disease or political disease because it restricts international trade by making it complex to import processed and non-processed live stock, and also quarantine is costly. In a society where whole nation is connected by zone of life, there is no way to prevent the spread of infectious disease fully. Hence, there is a need to be aware of occurrence of the disease and to take action before it is distributed. Epidemiological investigation on definite diagnosis target is implemented and measures are taken to prevent the spread of disease according to the investigation results, simultaneously with the confirmation of both human infectious disease and animal infectious disease. The foundation of epidemiological investigation is figuring out to where one has been, and whom he or she has met. In a data perspective, this can be defined as an action taken to predict the cause of disease outbreak, outbreak location, and future infection, by collecting and analyzing geographic data and relation data. Recently, an attempt has been made to develop a prediction model of infectious disease by using Big Data and deep learning technology, but there is no active research on model building studies and case reports. KT and the Ministry of Science and ICT have been carrying out big data projects since 2014 as part of national R &D projects to analyze and predict the route of livestock related vehicles. To prevent animal infectious diseases, the researchers first developed a prediction model based on a regression analysis using vehicle movement data. After that, more accurate prediction model was constructed using machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Lasso, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. In particular, the prediction model for 2017 added the risk of diffusion to the facilities, and the performance of the model was improved by considering the hyper-parameters of the modeling in various ways. Confusion Matrix and ROC Curve show that the model constructed in 2017 is superior to the machine learning model. The difference between the2016 model and the 2017 model is that visiting information on facilities such as feed factory and slaughter house, and information on bird livestock, which was limited to chicken and duck but now expanded to goose and quail, has been used for analysis in the later model. In addition, an explanation of the results was added to help the authorities in making decisions and to establish a basis for persuading stakeholders in 2017. This study reports an animal infectious disease prevention system which is constructed on the basis of hazardous vehicle movement, farm and environment Big Data. The significance of this study is that it describes the evolution process of the prediction model using Big Data which is used in the field and the model is expected to be more complete if the form of viruses is put into consideration. This will contribute to data utilization and analysis model development in related field. In addition, we expect that the system constructed in this study will provide more preventive and effective prevention.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.171-184
• /
• 1993

In Seoul area, there are so many kennel clubs, veterinary hospital, pet establishment and breeding confers that various problems have occurred. They are crowed pet houses, poor sanitation, stress to puppies, sudden environmental changes to puppies and unvaccination against parvovirus, canine distemper virus, parainfluenza virus, infectious hepatitis caused by Adenovirus type I and Leptospira. Several studies were made to survey the infectious agents involved in acute diarrhea of poppies in Seoul are, such as history taking, physical examination, complete blood count and serum chemistry, histopathological finding, bacterial isolation and identification, and hemagglutination test in feces and hemagglutination inhibition test in serum against parvovirus, respectively. The results obtained are summarized as followed. 1. The percent of PCV (30.5$\pm$5.6) and concentration of Total protein(5.0$\pm$0.8) resulted from statistical analysis are significantly lower than normal values (p<0.05), respectively. In addition, fibrinogen (505$\pm$326) was significantly higher an normal value (p<0.001), Band neutrophil (22.9$\pm$12.7) showed signifiant difference (P<0.01). decreased monocyte (3.2$\pm$2.1) and eosinophil (0.7$\pm$0.8) values appeared statistically significant (p<0.001), lymphocyte (16.7$\pm$9), as well. 2. The concentrations of calcium .(8.0$\pm$2.8), glucose (40.1$\pm$31.4), and albumin (2.0$\pm$0.39) were lower than normal values (p<0.01, p<0.01, p<0.001), respectively. Also Inorganic phosphate (7.1$\pm$2.4), pH (p<7.9f:0.2), and Blood Urea Nitrogen (40.41=37.1) were significantly higher than normal values (p<0.001, p(0.001, p<0.05), respectively. 3. Simple and mixed infections occupied 18% and 82% in the distribution of causes in puppies with acute diarrhea, respectively. 4. As puppies got older, incidence of acute diarrhea caused by Staphylococcus aureus was decreased to 13% and infection of canine distemper virus was increased to 53%, but E coli and canine parvovirus always showed high frequency of outbreak in the body weight ranged from 35g to 7.8Kg. 5. As showed in table 5, infections of E coli and Canine Parvovirus showed high outbreak regardless of the age which is classified into three stages, 35~50 day, 60 day and 75~day to 1 year, canine distemper virus appeared increased, but in case of Staphylococcus aureus, visa versa. 6. In comparison wi methods for the laboratory diagnosis diagnosis parvovirus, Hemagglutination test showed positive reaction in 25% and mean serum antibody titer measured by Hemagglutination inhibition test showed 2779 (n=20). In addition, positive reaction was 90% (18/20). 7. In histopathological studies, enteritic and pneumonic lesions were indicated in 53.7% and 39.5% of samples, respectively. 8. Etiologic diagnosis based on the history taking, clinical signs and histopathological findings in puppies with acute diarrhea and vomiting indicated that 50% of puppies were infected by canine parvovirus and distemper virus. 9. In the parasitological examination made by simple flotation with saturated zinc sulfate tour parasites found were Isospora canis, Toxocara canis, Ancylostoma spp and Toxocara spp. Isospora canis and Toxocara canis were more frequently found among those parasites of diarrhoeic causes in puppies ranged from 35 days to 1 year. Their infestation rates were 15% and 13% respectively.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.135-141
• /
• 2008

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical outcomes and prognostic factors in retroperitoneal soft tissue sarcomas treated by postoperative radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: The records of 23 patients with retroperitoneal soft tissue sarcomas, who underwent postoperative radiotherapy between 1985 and 2003, were analyzed. The median follow-up period was 77 months (range, $8{\sim}240$ months). A total of 21 patients presented with primary disease, and two patients presented with recurrent disease. Liposarcomas and leiomyosarcomas represented 78% of the diagnosed tumor cases. Moreover, 17 cases were of high grade (grade 2 or 3). The median tumor size was 13 cm (range, $3{\sim}50\;cm$). Complete excision was achieved in 65% of patients. The median radiation dose was 50.4 Gy (range, 45.0 to 59.4 Gy), with conventional fractionation. Results: The 5-year overall, local recurrence-free, and distant metastasis-free survival rates were 68%, 58%, and 71%, respectively. Eleven patients experienced local recurrence, while 9 patients experienced distant metastasis. The most common site for distant metastasis was the liver. A univariate analysis revealed that adjacent organ invasion and age (>60 years) as the significant risk factors contributing to the prediction of poor overall survival. Moreover, multivariate analyses indicated that adjacent organ invasion remained significantly associated with a higher risk of death. In addition, patient age (>60 years) was the other identified risk factor for local recurrence by univariate and multivariate analyses. Except for one case of grade 3 diarrhea, no patient suffered grade 3 or higher complications. Conclusion: Our results were comparable to previous reports in that adjacent organ invasion and patient age (>60 years) were significant predictors of poor survival and tumor recurrence, respectively.

• The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.163-194
• /
• 2017

Coronary artery disease has increased in Korea as the country enters the aged society. It is well known that the incidence of coronary artery disease is related to aging, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and dietary habit. For effective treatment of significant coronary stenosis, close coordination between cardiac surgery and cardiology team is essential. Especially cardiologists' decision whether to do the stent placement or CABG is very important because the cardiologists usually start to consult the patients for their treatment. Recently, non-surgical interventions(that is stent placement) in cardiology field have dramatically increased as the national insurance system removed the limitation of the number of stents deployed. However, accidents are often caused by inappropriate use of stents, especially in patients with triple coronary disease or left main disease with heavy coronary calcifications. Another aspect of stent placement is to cope with an emergency case in the event of coronary rupture or pericardial tamponade during coronary interventions without cardiac surgeons. In the past two years, the Korea Consumer Agency (Consumer Dispute Coordination Committee) analyzed eight cases of medical dispute settlement. Only two hospitals were manned with both cardiologists and cardiac surgeons. Seven patients died of procedures of stenting and five patients died on the day of the procedure. Among the 8 cases, 5 cases showed 3 vessel disease and the rest of the cases had either severe calcification, complete occlusion or poor coronary antomies for stenting According to a 2017 national data registry of coronary stenting, less than 3 drug-eluting stents were implanted in 98% of all patients. In 2015, the number of stent procedures was 38,922, and approximately in 800 (2%) cases, more than four stents were used per patient. We emphasize that it is necessary to seriously consider the cost-benefit analysis between stent and CABG. The patient has the right to choose the right procedure by asking the liability of 'instruction explanation obligation'. He should be well informed of the pros and cons of both procedures to avoid overuse of stent. It can be solved by intimate discussion of individual cases with the cardiac surgeon and the patient. Unilateral dialogue with the patient, forceful restriction on the number of stenting, lack of surgeon's backup in difficult cases should all be avoided. It is also necessary to solve the problem not only at the hospital level, such as multidisciplinary integrated medical care, but also a nationwide solution such as expanding cardiac surgeons as essential personnel to public officials.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.99-128
• /
• 2008

Nearly all Koreans are insured through National Health Insurance(NHI). While NHI coverage is nearly universal, it is not complete. Coverage is largely limited to minimal level of hospital and physician expenses, and copayments are required in each case. As a result, Korea's public insurance system covers roughly 50% of overall individual health expenditures, and the remaining 50% consists of copayments for basic services, spending on services that are either not covered or poorly covered by the public system. In response to these gaps in the public system, 64% of the Korean population has supplemental private health insurance. Expansion of private health insurance raises negative externality issue. Like public financing schemes in other countries, the Korean system imposes cost-sharing on patients as a strategy for controlling utilization. Because most insurance policies reimburse patients for their out-of-pocket payments, supplemental insurance is likely to negate the impact of the policy, raising both total and public sector health spending. So far, most empirical analysis of supplemental health insurance to date has focused on the US Medigap programme. It is found that those with supplements apparently consume more health care. Two reasons for higher health care consumption by those with supplements suggest themselves. One is the moral hazard effect: by eliminating copayments and deductibles, supplements reduce the marginal price of care and induce additional consumption. The other explanation is that supplements are purchased by those who anticipate high health expenditures - adverse effect. The main issue addressed has been the separation of the moral hazard effect from the adverse selection one. The general conclusion is that the evidence on adverse selection based on observable variables is mixed. This article investigates the extent to which private supplementary insurance affect use of health care services by public health insurance enrollees, using Korean administrative data and private supplements related data collected through all relevant private insurance companies. I applied a multivariate two-part model to analyze the effects of various types of supplements on the likelihood and level of public health insurance spending and estimated marginal effects of supplements. Separate models were estimated for inpatients and outpatients in public insurance spending. The first part of the model estimated the likelihood of positive spending using probit regression, and the second part estimated the log of spending for those with positive spending. Use of a detailed information of individuals' public health insurance from administration data and of private insurance status from insurance companies made it possible to control for health status, the types of supplemental insurance owned by theses individuals, and other factors that explain spending variations across supplemental insurance categories in isolating the effects of supplemental insurance. Data from 2004 to 2006 were used, and this study found that private insurance increased the probability of a physician visit by less than 1 percent and a hospital admission by about 1 percent. However, supplemental insurance was not found to be associated with a bigger health care service utilization. Two-part models of health care utilization and expenditures showed that those without supplemental insurance had higher inpatient and outpatient expenditures than those with supplements, even after controlling for observable differences.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.301-322
• /
• 1996

This study is first aimed at identifying the possibility of labour saving and production cost decreasing in rice production with respect to seed broad casting technology. Comparison of labour inputs and production costs of rice in-between USA and Korea and recommendation of policy guidelines for the continous rice cultivation are the second objective of this study. Under the WTO system, rice enterprice is the most vulnerable crop in the sense of labour productivity and price competitiveness in the international market. How to adapt labour saving technology and how to decrease production costs are the most imminent problems to be solved in rice production. To achieve the objectives, survey on nine rice enterprice farms were made in Daeho tidal farmland with respect to the size of farm, labour inputs, productivity, farm mechanization and farm land base development. The existing data on labour saving technology by seed broadcasting which had surveyed by Rural Development Administration were collected to compare the surveyed data from Daeho tidal farm land The study results and policy recommendation are summarized as follows; 1. Labour requirements per 10a for rice enterprise farms with seed broadcasting and with transplanting were estimated 11.4 and 18.5hours respectively. 'This above labour inputs were equivalent to 1/3-1/5 of the national average labour inputs of 53.6 hours which were included transplanting and harvesting by machinery. Considering the labour requirement of 1.7 hours per 10a for the USA rice production, Korea rice culture has possibility to decrease labour demand upto USA level of labour inputs. 2. Production cost of rice in Korea were estimated US$4,181 per ha which were higher than that of USA by 3.00 times and production costs per ton were shown as US$313 for USA rice and US$1,018 for Korean rice. 3. Land productivity of rice per 10a in America was reached to 4,325kg and the counterpart of Korea was about 4,181kg in recent year. In the sense of land productivity, both yields of rice were comparable. 4. The price of japonica type rice similar to Korean traditional rice in international market in 1994 was f.o.b US$466 per ton which was equivalent to import parity price of US$830 per ton in domestic market. The price of rice purchased by Korean G't and received by farmers were amounted to US$ 2,013 and US$ 1,663 respectively in the same year. Domestic prices mentioned above were higher than the import parity price as US$830 by 2.0-2.4 times. 5. American rice production competitive to Korean rice was equivalent to 17,012 thousand tons, 1.28% of the world production of rice in 1991 and consumption of rice in America was amounted to 2,633 thousand tons. Exportable quantity of USA rice were estimated as 4,379 thousand tons of which 52.3%, 2,300 thousand tons, were exported indeed in the same year. 6. The quantity of Korean rice produced in 1991 was estimated 1.00% of the world production. The world amount of rice exported in 1991 was reached to 2.45% of the world production of which 34.2% was occupied by USA The remaining quantities of world exported rice were dominated by Tiland, Pakistan and Vietnam where produced indica variety. 7. Under the given technology, labour inputs per 10a for rice production could be possible to save by 70% of the national average labour requirement of 53.6 hours through implmenting complete farm mechanization with land consolidation and on-farm development and improvement of fanning practices like seedbroad casting txchnology etc. On the other hand, prduction costs of rice could be decreased by 10% rather than 49% as target indicated in the Rural Development Counter Measures of Korean Government in 1994 owing to increasing farm mechanization cost and interest on land service with high price. Accordingly production cost of rice per kg could be decreased only by 10% of the 1994 production cost. 8. Rice policy of Korean government in the future should take into account the labour saving technology to solve labour shortage in rural area and to enhance off-farm incomes by creating job opportunities in agro-industrial zones and special production area. On account of the staple food and main energy source for people's health, rice production even encountered vulnerable economic settings should be continued without price distortion policies and discouraging farmer's intention to cultivate rice by importing institutionally the direct income subsidy system.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
• /
• v.46 no.6
• /
• pp.453-458
• /
• 2001

The Rural Development Administration (RDA) of Korea now operates a system called Rice Variety Selection Tests (RVST), which are now being implemented in eight Agricultural Research and Extension Services located in eight province RVST's objective is to provide accurate yield estimates and to select well-adapted varieties to each province. Systematic evaluation of entries included in RVST is a highly important task to select the best-adapted varieties to specific location and to observe the performance of entries across a wide range of test sites within a region. The rice yield data in RVST for ordinary transplanting in Kangwon province during 1997-2000 were analyzed. The experiments were carried out in three replications of a random complete block design with eleven entries across five locations. Additive Main effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) model was employed to examine the interaction between genotype and environment (G$\times$E) in the biplot form. It was found that genotype variability was as high as 66％, followed by G$\times$E interaction variability, 21％, and variability by environment, 13％. G$\times$E interaction was partitioned into two significant (P＜0.05) principal components. Pattern analysis was used for interpretation on G$\times$E interaction and adaptibility. Major determinants among the meteorological factors on G$\times$E matrix were canopy minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity, sunshine hours, precipitation and mean cloud amount. Odaebyeo, Obongbyeo and Jinbubyeo were relatively stable varieties in all the regions. Furthermore, the most adapted varieties in each region, in terms of productivity, were evaluated.