• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국항해항만학회 1998년도 추계학술대회논문집:21세기에 대비한 지능형 통합항만관리
• /
• pp.263-269
• /
• 1998

The forecasting of container cargo volumes should be estimated correctly because it has a key roles on the establishment of port development planning, and the decision of port operating system. Container cargo volumes have a dynamic characteristics which was changed by effect of competitive ports. Accordingly forecasting was needed overall approach about competitive port's development, alternation and information. But, until now, traffic forecasting was not executed according to competitive situation, and that was accomplished at the point of unit port. Generally, considering the competition situation, simulation method was desirable at forecasting because system's scale was increased, and the influence power was intensified. In this paper, considering this situation, the objectives can be outlined as follows. 1) Structural model constructs by System dynamics method. 2) Structural simulation model develops according to modelling of competitive situation by expended SD method which included HEP(Hierarchical Fuzzy Process) And actually, effectiveness was verified according to proposed model to major port in northeast asia.

• 한국항해학회지
• /
• 제25권4호
• /
• pp.477-486
• /
• 2001

Although the ports are actually competing with various strategies, the definition and structural understanding of port competitive power are not known very much. Therefore this study has launched from this fact, and has the objective of obtaining the structural model of the competitive power, and understanding the components of the port competitive power. The following are the results of the study. First, the process began by abstracting the components that composed the port competitive power through recent research, and grouping it by the most core components using the KJ method. Also, by using the FSM(Fuzzy Structural Modeling) method to understand the structure of the grouped components, and the structural model of the port competitive power was able to obtain as the result. Second, when analyzing the obtained structural model, port expenses, main trunk location, port congestion and port facility came out to be the most important component groups, and especially port expenses was the most effective component that effected all the other components overall. Third, the component groups that were relatively less important, effected by most of the other components, and located on the top level of the structure model were the hinterland accessibility, port ownership, customs duties speed, and large ship port entrance possibility etc. Fourth, the results of this study will be able to be used when establishing competing strategies for our country's ports by proposing the relatively important components with the port competitive rower considered.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제1권1호
• /
• pp.103-131
• /
• 2000

If a system such as a port has a large boundary and complexity, and the system's substance is considered as a black box, forecast accuracy will be very low. Futhermore various components in a port exert significant influence on each other. To copy with these problem the form of structure models were introduced by using SD method. The Competitive Ports Model had several sub-systems consisting of each Unit Port models, and each Unit Port model was made by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops. The fact that all components of one port have influence on the components of the other ports should be taken into account to construct Competitive Port Models. However, with the current approach that is impossible, and in this paper therefore, models were simplified by HFP adapted to integrate level variables of unit port models. Although many studies on modelling of port competitive situation have been conducted, both theoretical frame and methodology are still very weak. In this study, a new algorithm called ESD(Extensional System Dynamics) for the evaluation of port competition was presented, and applied to simulate port systems in northeast asia.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 1999년도 창립학술대회발표논문집
• /
• pp.105-132
• /
• 1999

If a system such as a port has a large boundary and complexity, and the system's substance is considered as a black box, forecast accuracy will be very low. Furthermore various components in a port exert significant influence on each other. To copy with these problem the form of structure models were introduced by using SD method. The Competitive Ports Model had several sub-systems consisting of each Unit Port models, and each Unit Port model was made by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops. The fact that all components of one port have influence on the components of the other ports should be taken into account to construct Competitive Port Models. However, with the current approach that is impossible, and in this paper, therefore, models were simplified by HFP adapted to integrate level variables of unit port models. Although many studies on modelling of port competitive situation have been conducted, both theoretical frame and methodology are still very weak. In this study, a new algorithm called ESD(Extensional System Dynamics) for the evaluation of port competition was presented, and applied to simulate port systems in northeast Asia.

• 한국항해항만학회지
• /
• 제31권2호
• /
• pp.133-139
• /
• 2007

Relative importance of maritime transport that takes charge of main current of freight in country' economy is very large. Especially, port and facility carry out important role which treats freight of import and export smoothly and improves international trade as turning point, to achieve key role on connection and association between sea and land. For such reason, enlargement of port facilities or development of port needs to grasp exactly the utilization of port, attributes and selective factors of shipper. On the other hand, the amounts of physical distribution on Mokpo port located in Korean west coast are increasing, with fast economic growth of East Asian including China. This study uses discrete choice model that is measuring to analyze attribute and characteristic of Mokpo port, and analyzes port selection by decision factors of shipper. This paper composed a questionnaire using the result of preceding research, to decide port selection factor among competitive ports. Through factor analysis on a basis of the questionnaire' result, five principal components were extracted. These are resorted out by Logit model, to grasp competitive elements of port. This research fin present direction which raises competitive power of ports in west coast of Korea, especially on alternative and concentration of middle-class port as Mokpo may be useful.

• 한국항만경제학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국항만경제학회 2007년도 정책세미나 및 국제학술대회
• /
• pp.441-455
• /
• 2007

Based on the fact that Qingdao port, Tianjin port and Dalian port of the economic circle around Bohai have been the three islands of stability through long-term competition, this paper conducts a system study on the competitive powers of the three ports through AHP model on the analysis of current status of the three ports, and probes deeply into the outer factors and the inner factors affecting on the competitive advantage, and points out the existing problems in competition. We think that the three ports must compete orderly and collaborate closely, and give the forms and approaches developing strategy collaboration in order to obtain an advantageous position in Northeast Asia and improve the international competitive power.

• 한국항만학회지
• /
• 제12권1호
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 1998

If a system has a large boundary and complexity, forecast's accuracy will be very low when consider the system's substance as black box. Thus, it is necessary that analysis by structure model. To examine competition in Northeast Asia Ports, it has assumed that the form of structure model, For which the System Dynamics method is adapted in this paper. Northeast Asia Ports Model includes five ports - Pusan, Kobe, Yokohama, Kaoshiung, Keelung, - which are adjacent to each other by geographically and has a competition relation. The Northeast Asia Ports Model has several sub-systems which consists of each unit port models. And, each unit port model found by quantitive, qualititive factors and their feedback loops. All effects which components of one port have influence to components of the rest ports must be surveyed in order to construct Northeast Asia Ports Model, but it may be impossible currently. In this paper Northeast Asia Ports Model was simplified by HFP-Hierarchical Fuzzy Process Method-adapted to integration of level variables of unit port model. Container cargo volumes in Northeast Ports Model is distributed by results of HFP method. And distributed container cargo volumes effected to unit port model. Developed model can estimate change of container cargo volumes in competitive relation by alternation of simple parameter, and reflects dynamics characteristics which are included in model.

• 한국항만경제학회지
• /
• 제31권2호
• /
• pp.85-101
• /
• 2015

본 논문의 목적은 동북아항만간 경쟁 입지변화와 경쟁관계 분석을 통해 광양항의 발전전략을 구축하는 것이다. 동북아 주요항만간 경쟁 입지 변화추정을 위해 수정 BCG매트릭스, 그리고 경쟁관계분석을 위해 Lotka-Volterra모형을 활용하였다. 연구결과 동북아지역에서는 중국항만의 경쟁력 및 영향력 확대, 부산항의 경쟁력 유지와 광양항 및 인천항의 경쟁력 정체, 그리고 일본항만의 경쟁력 실종을 확인했다. 또한 2007년 대비 2014년의 동북아 항만과 광양항간 관계에 따르면 환적물량기준 광양항은 부산항과 윈윈관계에서 약탈적 관계로 변화되었으며, 홍콩항과는 약탈적 관계를 유지하였다. 또한 상하이 및 닝보와는 약탈적 관계, 톈진과 순수경쟁관계, 그리고 칭다오 및 다롄과 윈윈관계를 형성하고 있다. 전체적으로 2007년 대비 2014년에는 광양항과 동북아 항만들간에 약탈적관계로 변화된 항만이 늘어나고 있다. 이에 대한 광양항의 대응전략은 약탈적 및 경쟁 관계의 항만들과는 협력적관계로, 그리고 윈윈 협력관계의 항만들과는 윈윈관계를 지속하는 전략을 구사할 필요가 있다.

• 한국항해학회지
• /
• 제23권1호
• /
• pp.75-84
• /
• 1999

Although many studies on modelling of port competitive situation have been conducted, both theoretical frame and methodology are still very weak. In this study, therefore, a new algorithm called ESD (Extensional System Dynamics) for the evaluation of port competition was presented, and applied to simulate port systems in northeast asia. The detailed objectives of this paper are to develop Unit fort Model by using SD(System Dynamics) method; to develop Competitive Port Model by ESD method; to perform sensitivity analysis by altering parameters, and to propose port development strategies. For these the algorithm for the evaluation of part's competition was developed in two steps. Firstly, SD method was adopted to develop the Unit Port models, and secondly HFP(Hierarchical Fuzzy Process) method was introduced to expand previous SD method. The proposed models were then developed and applied to the five ports - Pusan, Kobe, Yokohama, Kaoshiung, Keelung - with real data on each ports, and several findings were derived. Firstly, the extraction of factors for Unit Port was accomplished by consultation of experts such as research worker, professor, research fellows related to harbor, and expert group, and finally, five factor groups - location, facility, service, cargo volumes, and port charge - were obtained. Secondly, system's structure consisting of feedback loop was found easily by location of representative and detailed factors on keyword network of STGB map. Using these keyword network, feedback loop was found. Thirdly, for the target year of 2003, the simulation for Pusan port revealed that liner's number would be increased from 829 ships to 1,450 ships and container cargo volumes increased from 4.56 million TEU to 7.74 million TEU. It also revealed that because of increased liners and container cargo volumes, length of berth should be expanded from 2,162m to 4,729m. This berth expansion was resulted in the decrease of congested ship's number from 97 to 11. It was also found that port's charge had a fluctuation. Results of simulation for Kobe, Yokohama, Kaoshiung, Keelung in northeast asia were also acquired. Finally, the inter port competition models developed by ESB method were used to simulate container cargo volumes for Pusan port. The results revealed that under competitive situation container cargo volume was smaller than non-competitive situation, which means Pusan port is lack of competitive power to other ports. Developed models in this study were then applied to estimate change of container cargo volumes in competitive relation by altering several parameters. And, the results were found to be very helpful for port mangers who are in charge of planning of port development.

• 한국항만경제학회지
• /
• 제25권1호
• /
• pp.1-14
• /
• 2009

항만산업의 발전은 저렴하고 효율적인 서비스 제공을 가능하게 함으로써 자국 경제발전을 지원하는 기능을 하는 동시에 독립된 산업으로 부가가치 및 고용창출을 기대할 수 있다. 그러나 국내 주요 항만들은 대내의적인 여건의 변화로 항만교역량 증가세가 둔화되고 있으며 국내 항만의 여건악화는 일시적인 현상이라기보다는 구조적인 현상이라는 점에 문제의 심각성이 있다. 즉, 향후 주요 항만들의 교역량 증가세가 회복될 가능성이 크지 않다는 것이 일반적인 견해이며, 역내 물류중심 기능을 수행할 수 있을 것인지에 대한 회의론 마저 대두되고 있는 실정이다. 항만개발에 소요되는 시간과 재원은 막대하다. 특히 신항개발의 경우 최소 10년 이상의 장기수요 전망 하에 개발계획의 수립이 이루어진다. 따라서 개발계획의 기본이 되는 교역량의 예측의 중요성은 최근 교역량과 관련한 대외적인 환경 변화에 따라 중요성이 더욱 부각되고 있다. 이처럼 산업이 고도화되고 구조도 급격히 변화되고 있는 시대 흐름에 비추어 정확한 물동량예측은 유용하게 이용될 수 있다. 따라서 본고에서는 승법계절 ARIMA모형을 이용하여 국내항만과 중국항만간의 교역량 변화를 예측해보고, 이러한 예측을 통하여 우리나라 항만의 역할과 경쟁력을 갖추기 위한 필요성이 제기됨에 따라 항만의 교역량 중대를 위한 항만활성화 방안을 제시하고자 한다.