• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.653-659
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• 2002

This paper describes a probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation. In the analysis of CANDU pressure tube, the depth and aspect ratio of an initial semi-elliptical surface crack, a fracture toughness value and delayed hydride cracking(DHC) velocity are assumed to be probabilistic variables. As an example, some failure probabilities of piping and CANDU pressure tube are calculated using MC method with the stratified sampling MC technique, taking analysis conditions of normal operations. In the stratified MC simulation, a sampling space of probabilistic variables is divided into a number of small cells. For the verification of analysis results, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.531-538
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• 2017

In this paper, the seismic behavior of BRBF structures is studied and compared with special concentric braced frames (SCBF). To this purpose, three BRBF and three SCBF structures with 3, 5 and 10 stories are designed based on AISC360-5 and modelled using OpenSees. These structures are loaded in accordance with ASCE/SEI 7-10. Incremental nonlinear dynamic analysis (IDA) are performed on these structures for 28 different accelerograms and the median IDA curves are used to compare seismic capacity of these two systems. Results obtained, indicates that BRBF systems provide higher capacity for the target performance level in comparison with SCBF systems. And structures with high altitude (in this study, 5 and 10 stories) with the possibility of exceeding the collapse prevention performance level, further than lower altitude (here 3 floors) structures.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.105-123
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• 2016

In this paper, using the probabilistic methods, the seismic demand of buckling restrained braced frames subjected to earthquake was evaluated. In this regards, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14-storybuildings with different buckling restrained brace configuration (including diagonal, split X, chevron V and Inverted V bracings) were designed. Because of the inherent uncertainties in the earthquake records, incremental dynamical analysis was used to evaluate seismic performance of the structures. Using the results of incremental dynamical analysis, the "capacity of a structure in terms of first mode spectral acceleration", "fragility curve" and "mean annual frequency of exceeding a limit state" was determined. "Mean annual frequency of exceeding a limit state" has been estimated for immediate occupancy (IO) and collapse prevention (CP) limit states using both Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) and solution "based on displacement" in the Demand and Capacity Factor Design (DCFD) form. Based on analysis results, the inverted chevron (${\Lambda}$) buckling restrained braced frame has the largest capacity among the considered buckling restrained braces. Moreover, it has the best performance among the considered buckling restrained braces. Also, from fragility curves, it was observed that the fragility probability has increased with the height.

• 대한조선학회지
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.29-35
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• 1987

As offshore activities move into deeper ocean, conventional fixed-base platforms drastically increase in size and cost, One of alternatives available is a guyed tower, in which environmental loads are supported by guylines instead of structural members. The guying system of the guyed tower is designed on one hand to be stiff enough to limit the structural displacement in normal operations, but on the other hand to be soft enough to permit large slow sways during the presence of design-level storms. This compliancy provides an efficient means of withstanding harsh environment so that the disproportionate increase in size of deep water platforms can be kept to a rational limit. Novel configurations contain always some degrees of potential risks mainly due to the lack of experience. The most critical hazard inherent to a guyed tower may be the pullout of anchor piles. Once it happens, the guyline fails to function and it may eventually lead to the total collapse of the system. It is the aim of this paper to discuss and quantify the anchor-pullout risk of a guyed tower. A stochastic analysis is made for evaluating the first-upcrossing probability of the tension acting on anchor piles over the uplift capacity. Nonlinearities involved in the mooring stiffness and hydrodynamics are taken into account by using time-domain analysis. A simplified two dimensional dynamic model is developed to exemplify the underlying concept. Real hurricane data in the Gulf of Mexico spanning over 70 years are incorporated in a numerical example of which result clearly indicates highly potential risk of anchor pullout.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.279-293
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• 2021

Most of the existing seismic codes for RC buildings consider only a scenario earthquake for analysis, often characterized by the response spectrum at the specified location. However, any real earthquake event often involves occurrences of multiple earthquakes within a few hours or days, possessing similar or even higher energy than the first earthquake. This critically impairs the rehabilitation measures thereby resulting in the accumulation of structural damages for subsequent earthquakes after the first earthquake. Also, the existing seismic provisions account for the non-linear response of an RC building frame implicitly by specifying a constant response modification factor (R) in a linear elastic design. However, the 'R' specified does not address the changes in structural configurations of RC moment-resisting frames (RC MRFs) viz., building height, number of bays present, bay width, irregularities arising out of mass and stiffness changes, etc. resulting in changed dynamic characteristics of the structural system. Hence, there is an imperative need to assess the seismic performance under sequential earthquake ground motions, considering the adequacy of code-specified 'R' in the representation of dynamic characteristics of RC buildings. Therefore, the present research is focused on the evaluation of the non-linear response of medium-rise 3D RC MRFs with and without vertical irregularities under bi-directional sequential earthquake ground motions using non-linear dynamic analysis. It is evident from the results that collapse probability increases, and 'R' reduces significantly for various RC MRFs subjected to sequential earthquakes, pronouncing the vulnerability and inadequacy of estimation of design base shear by code-specified 'R' under sequential earthquakes.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.110-134
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• 2023

North Korea's development and deployment of nuclear weapons increases Pyongyang's diplomatic bargaining leverage. It is a strategic response to counteract the great expansion in US leverage with the collapse of the USSR. Post-Cold War American influence and hegemony is justified partly by claiming victory in successfully containing an allegedly imperialist Soviet Union. The US created and led formal and informal international institutions as part of its decades-long containment grand strategy against the USSR. The US now exploits these institutions to expedite US unilateral global preeminence. Third World regimes perceived as remnants of the Cold War era that resist accommodating to American demands are stereotyped as rogue states. Rogue regimes are criminal offenders who should be brought to justice, i.e. regime change is required. The initiation of summit diplomacy between US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un occurred following the January 2018 Hawaiian ballistic missile false alarm. This event and its political consequences illustrate the efficacy of nuclear weapons as bargaining leverage for so-called rogue actors. North Korea is highly unlikely to surrender those weapons that were the instigation for the subsequent summit diplomacy that occurred. A broader, critical trend-focused strategic analysis is necessary to adopt a longer-term view of the on-going Korean nuclear crisis. The aim would be to conceptualize long-term policies that increase the probability that nuclear weapons capability becomes a largely irrelevant issue in interaction between Pyongyang, Seoul, Beijing and Washington.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.585-592
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• 2017

도심 내 매설된 대다수의 하수관로는 노후가 심각하게 진행되어 파손의 가능성이 높다. 또한, 도시개발의 집중도가 높아 인구밀도나 통행량이 많으므로 하수관로가 붕괴되면 사회 경제적으로 막대한 피해를 입게 된다. 따라서 관로 파손에 의한 사고를 예방하기 위해 사전적인 유지관리가 필요하며, 한정된 재원의 효율적인 활용을 위해 파손의 가능성과 피해의 규모를 동시에 고려한 위험도 기반의 우선순위 결정방안이 제시되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는, 다양한 해외 연구사례를 검토하여 위험도 기반의 하수관로의 조사 우선순위 결정 방법을 도출하였고 도심지 배수분구에 적용 검토하였다. 우선, 서울시 하수관로 GIS DB를 통해 확보 가능한 영향인자를 도출하고, 각 영향인자들의 가중치, 구분항목, 영향점수를 결정하여 가중치 환산법으로 하수관로 파손결과를 산정하였다. 또한, 하수관로의 예상 내용연수 대비 사용연수를 계산하여 파손가능성을 도출하였으며, 내츄럴 브레이크 방법으로 파손결과와 파손가능성을 5등급으로 구분하였다. 위 방법을 서울시 내 위치한 소규모 배수분구에 적용하여 위험도 매트릭스와 위험도 등급을 도출하였으며, 그 결과 전체 대상의 26%가 위험도 4-5등급인 CCTV조사 우선대상으로 선정되었다. 따라서 위험도 기반의 CCTV 우선순위 결정방법을 활용하여 조사가 우선적으로 필요한 대상을 체계적으로 결정할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2010년도 추계 학술발표회 3차
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• pp.72-77
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• 2010

The Incheon Bridge, which was opened to the traffic in October 2009, is an 18.4 km long sea-crossing bridge connecting the Incheon International Airport with the expressway networks around the Seoul metropolitan area by way of Songdo District of Incheon City. This bridge is an integration of several special featured bridges and the major part of the bridge consists of cable-stayed spans. This marine cable-stayed bridge has a main span of 800 m wide to cross the vessel navigation channel in and out of the Incheon Port. In waterways where ship collision is anticipated, bridges shall be designed to resist ship impact forces, and/or, adequately protected by ship impact protection (SIP) systems. For the Incheon Bridge, large diameter circular dolphins as SIP were made at 44 locations of the both side of the main span around the piers of the cable-stayed bridge span. This world's largest dolphin-type SIP system protects the bridge against the collision with 100,000 DWT tanker navigating the channel with speed of 10 knots. Diameter of the dolphin is up to 25 m. Vessel collision risk was assessed by probability based analysis with AASHTO Method-II. The annual frequency of bridge collapse through the risk analysis for 71,370 cases of the impact scenario was less than $0.5{\times}10^{-4}$ and satisfies design requirements. The dolphin is the circular sheet pile structure filled with crushed rock and closed at the top with a robust concrete cap. The structural design was performed with numerical analyses of which constitutional model was verified by the physical model experiment using the geo-centrifugal testing equipment. 3D non-linear finite element models were used to analyze the structural response and energy-dissipating capability of dolphins which were deeply embedded in the seabed. The dolphin structure secures external stability and internal stability for ordinary loads such as wave and current pressure. Considering failure mechanism, stability assessment was performed for the strength limit state and service limit state of the dolphins. The friction angle of the crushed stone as a filling material was reduced to $38^{\circ}$ considering the possibility of contracting behavior as the impact.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.557-565
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• 2016

지구온난화 및 이상기후의 영향으로 극한홍수의 발생확률 및 규모가 증가함에 따라 수공구조물의 붕괴위험도 함께 증가하고 있다. 대표적인 수공구조물인 제방의 붕괴 시 막대한 붕괴유량이 제내지로 유입되어 많은 침수피해를 발생시킨다. 이러한 피해를 예측하기 위해 붕괴유량을 정확히 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 제방붕괴단면의 비대칭성에 따른 붕괴유량의 변화를 분석하였다. 수리실험결과를 통해 제방의 붕괴가 진행됨에 따라 붕괴단면의 비대칭성이 어떻게 변화하는지 BASD를 계산하여 분석하였다. 그 결과, 붕괴유량과 BASD의 관계를 도출할 수 있었다. 또한, 3차원 수치모의를 통해 동일한 조건하에서 붕괴단면의 비대칭성에 따른 붕괴유량의 차이를 비교하였다. 이는 기존에 침수면적을 예측하기 위해 사용한 붕괴단면의 직사각형 가정은 붕괴유량이 과다하게 산정됨을 알 수 있었고 붕괴단면의 BASD에 따라 붕괴부에서 간섭현상이 발생하여 붕괴유량이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 범람 수치모의 시 제방붕괴 단면의 BASD를 고려하여 보다 정확한 붕괴유량을 산정한다면 정확한 예상침수면적을 도출할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.