• Title/Summary/Keyword: Collapse Probability

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On the Evaluation of the dynamic Safety of the Ship's Cargo at Sea (항해중 선박 적재화물의 동적 안정성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 김철승;김순갑
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 1997
  • One of the most important missons that are imposed on merchant ship at sea is to accomplish the safe transportation of cargo loaded. Recently, a study on the seakeeping performance has been carried out on the development of evaluation system related to the synthetic safety of a ship at sea. The seakeeping performance is the ship's ability sailing at, and executing its misson against adverse environmental factors successfully and safely. Until now, however, there has not been any method of quantitative evaluation on the dynamic safety of the ship's cargo loaded. In this regards, this paper has introduced the evaluation method of dynamic safety of the ship's cargo. In order to evaluate the dynamic safety of cargo, the vertical and lateral acceleration which causes the collapse, racking and local structure failure of cargo was adopted as the evaluation factors in the ship's motions. The response amplitude of ship's motions in regular waves is manipulated by NSM (New Strip Method) on a given 2,700 TEU full container vessel under the wind forces of 7, 8 and 9 Beaufort scale. Each response of ship's motions induced by NSM was applied to short-crested irregular waves for stochastic process on evaluation factors and then vertical and lateral acceleration of each cargo was compared with significant amplitude of each acceleration. A representative dangerous factor was determined by comparing permissible values of stacking and racking forces occurred typically to the vertical and transverse directions with the container strength required on ISO 1496 at the positions of forecastle, poop and ship's midship respectively. Through the occurrence probability of the determined factor by Rayleigh's probability density function, the dangerousness which limits loads on container's side wall as an evaluation was applied in judging of the danger of the ship's cargo loaded.

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Markov-based time-varying risk assessment of the subway station considering mainshock and aftershock hazards

  • Wei Che;Pengfei Chang;Mingyi Sun
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.303-316
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    • 2023
  • Rapid post-earthquake damage estimation of subway stations is particularly necessary to improve short-term crisis management and safety measures of urban subway systems after a destructive earthquake. The conventional Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework with constant earthquake occurrence rate is invalid to estimate the aftershock risk because of the time-varying rate of aftershocks and the uncertainty of mainshock-damaged state before the occurrence of aftershocks. This study presents a time-varying probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for underground structures considering mainshock and aftershock hazards. A discrete non-omogeneous Markov process is adopted to quantify the time-varying nature of aftershock hazard and the uncertainties of structural damage states following mainshock. The time-varying seismic risk of a typical rectangular frame subway station is assessed under mainshock-only (MS) hazard and mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) hazard. The results show that the probabilities of exceeding same limit states over the service life under MSAS hazard are larger than the values under MS hazard. For the same probability of exceedance, the higher response demands are found when aftershocks are considered. As the severity of damage state for the station structure increases, the difference of the probability of exceedance increases when aftershocks are considered. PSDR=1.0% is used as the collapse prevention performance criteria for the subway station is reasonable for both the MS hazard and MSAS hazard. However, if the effect of aftershock hazard is neglected, it can significantly underestimate the response demands and the uncertainties of potential damage states for the subway station over the service life.

Site specific fragility modification factor for mid-rise RC buildings based on plastic energy dissipation

  • Merin Mathews;B.R. Jayalekshmi;Katta Venkataramana
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.331-344
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    • 2024
  • The performance of reinforced concrete buildings subjected to earthquake excitations depends on the structural behaviour of the superstructure as well as the type of foundation and the properties of soil on which the structure is founded. The consideration of the effects due to the interaction between the structure and soil- foundation alters the seismic response of reinforced concrete buildings subjected to earthquake motion. Evaluation of the structural response of buildings for quantitative assessment of the seismic fragility has been a demanding problem for the engineers. Present research deals with development of fragility curve for building specific vulnerability assessment based on different damage parameters considering the effect of soil-structure interaction. Incremental Dynamic Analysis of fixed base and flexible base RC building models founded on different soil conditions was conducted using finite element software. Three sets of fragility curves were developed with maximum roof displacement, inter storey drift and plastic energy dissipated as engineering demand parameters. The results indicated an increase in the likelihood of exceeding various damage limits by 10-40% for flexible base condition with soft soil profiles. Fragility curve based on energy dissipated showed a higher probability of exceedance for collapse prevention damage limit whereas for lower damage states, conventional methods showed higher probability of exceedance. With plastic energy dissipated as engineering demand parameter, it is possible to track down the intensity of earthquake at which the plastic deformation starts, thereby providing an accurate vulnerability assessment of the structure. Fragility modification factors that enable the transformation of existing fragility curves to account for Soil-Structure Interaction effects based on different damage measures are proposed for different soil conditions to facilitate a congenial vulnerability assessment for buildings with flexible base conditions.

AN ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE SINKING OP THE M.V. DERBYSHIRE

  • Faulkner, D.
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.19-76
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    • 2002
  • The author was appointed by the UK Department of Transport as a fellow Assessor with R. A. Williams during Lord Donaldson's Assessment (1995) of the loss of the OBO ship DERBYSHIRE and in 1996 as a UK Assessor for the planning and surveys of the wreck. He relinquished his appointment in October 1997 and was not thereafter Involved in the review and analysis of data gathered. This paper may be considered to be complementary to the reports of the UK and EC Assessors (Williams and Torchio, 1998a and 1998b) which followed that review and analysis. The paper deals with the history and loss of the ship, Including the concept developed in 1995 of 13 possible loss scenarios in a formal safety Risk Matrix of probability and seriousness. It analyses abnormal wave effects on hatch cover collapse, on ship bending, and on flooding of bow spaces and no. 1 hold. The implosion-explosion mechanics during sinking is outlined to explain the devastation of the wreck. The 1996 and 1997 underwater surveys are outlined as are the findings of fact. Each of the final 14 loss scenarios is analysed in the light of the firm and circumstantial survey evidence, plus many other factors of survey experience, analyses and experiments. The updated Risk Matrix speaks for itself and leads to the prime conclusions and major recommendations.

Short-term Reactive Power Reserve Optimization Based on Trajectory Sensitivity

  • Sun, Quancai;Cheng, Haozhong;Zhang, Jian;Li, Baiqing;Song, Yue
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.541-548
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    • 2017
  • An increasing concern is paid to short-term voltage stability with the growth of penetration of induction motor loads. Reactive power reserve(RPR) of power system is critical to improve voltage stability. A definition of short-term voltage stability-related RPR(SVRPR) is proposed. Generators vary their contributions to voltage stability with their location and system condition, etc. Voltage support coefficient based on the second-order trace sensitivity method is proposed to evaluate SVRPR's contribution to short-term voltage stability. The evaluation method can account for the generator's reactive support in transient process and the contingency severity. Then an optimization model to improve short-term voltage stability is built. To deal with multiple contingencies, contingency weight taking into account both its probability and severity is proposed. The optimization problem is solved by primal dual interior point method. Testing on IEEE_39 bus system, it is indicated that the method proposed is effective. Short-term voltage stability is improved significantly by the way of SVRPR optimization. Hence, the approach can be used to prevent the happening of voltage collapse during system's contingency.

Effects of Operational Condition and Sea States on Wave-Induced Bending Moments of Large Merchant Vessels (운항조건 및 해상상태가 대형 화물선의 파랑 중 굽힘모멘트에 미치는 영향)

  • 김동문;백점기
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2003
  • For risk or reliability assessment of ship structures against particular hazardous situations such as total loss or sinking due to hull girder collapse, the short-term based response analysis rather than the long-term response analysis is required to determine wave-induced bending moments when the ship encounters a storm of specific duration and with a specified small encounter probability. In the present study, the effects of operational condition and sea states on wave-induced bending moments of large merchant vessels are investigated. A series of the short-term response analyses for a hypothetical VLCC and a Capesize bulk carrier (CSBC) are carried out with varying operational condition and sea states which include ship speed, significant wave height and wave persistence time, using the linear-strip theory based program ABS/SHIPMOTION and the MIT sea-keeping tables. The computed results are also compared with the IACS design formula predictions. The results and insights developed from the present study are summarized.

Application of Buckling Restrained Braces in a 50-Storey Building

  • Sy, Jose A.;Anwar, Naveed;Aung, Thaung Htut;Rayamajhi, Deepak
    • International Journal of High-Rise Buildings
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2014
  • The use of Buckling Restrained Braces (BRB) for enhancing the performance of the buildings is gaining wider acceptance. This paper presents the first application of these devices in a major high-rise building in the Philippines. A 50-storey residential reinforced concrete building tower, with ductile core wall, with BRB system is investigated. The detailed modeling and design procedure of buckling restrained brace system is presented for the optimal design against the two distinct levels of earthquake ground motions; serviceable behavior for frequent earthquakes and very low probability of collapse under extremely rare earthquakes. The stiffness and strength of the buckling restrained brace system are adjusted to optimize the performance of the structural system under different levels of earthquakes. Response spectrum analysis is conducted for Design Basis Earthquake level and Service level, while nonlinear time history analysis is performed for the most credible earthquake. The case study results show the effectiveness of buckling restrained braces.

Seismic performance of single pier skewed bridges with different pier-deck connections

  • Attarchiana, Nahid;Kalantari, Afshin;Moghadam, Abdolreza S.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.1467-1486
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    • 2016
  • This research focuses on seismic performance of a class of single pier skewed bridges with three different pier-deck connections; skew angles vary from $0^{\circ}$ to $60^{\circ}$. A well-documented four span continuous deck bridge has been modeled and verified. Seat-type connections with fixed and sliding bearings plus monolithic pier-deck connections are studied. Shear keys are considered either fully operational or ineffective. Seismic performances of the bridges and the structural components are investigated conducting bidirectional nonlinear time history analysis in OpenSees. Several global and intermediate engineering demand parameters (EDP) have been studied. On the basis of results, the values of demand parameters of skewed bridges, such as displacement and rotation of the deck plus plastic deformation and torsional demand of the piers, increase as the skew angle increases. In order to eliminate the deck collapse probability, the threshold skew angle is considered as $30^{\circ}$ in seat-type bridges. For bridges with skew angles greater than $30^{\circ}$, monolithic pier-deck connections should be applied. The functionality of shear keys is critical in preventing large displacements in the bearings. Pinned piers experience considerable ductility demand at the bottom.

A Study on the Fatigue Reliability of Structures by Markov Chain Model (Markov Chain Model을 이용한 구조물의 피로 신뢰성 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Y.S. Yang;J.H. Yoon
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.228-240
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    • 1991
  • Many experimental data of fatigue crack propagation show that the fatigue crack propagation process is stochastic. Therefore, the study on the crack propagation must be based on the probabilistic approach. In the present paper, fatigue crack propagation process is assumed to be a discrete Markov process and the method is developed, which can evaluate the reliability of the structural component by using Markov chain model(Unit step B-model) suggested by Bogdanoff. In this method, leak failure, plastic collapse and brittle fracture of the critical component are taken as failure modes, and the effects of initial crack distribution, periodic and non-periodic inspection on the probability of failure are considered. In this method, an equivalent load value for random loading such as wave load is used to facilitate the analysis. Finally some calculations are carried out in order to show the usefulness and the applicability of this method. And then some remarks on this method are mentioned.

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Behaviour of Pulsating Flow in the Jetflow Region through Cylindrical Chokes (원통형 초크의 분류영역에서 맥동유동의 거동)

  • Moh, Y.W.;Yoo, Y.T.;Hong, S.S.;Wee, K.H.
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.3 no.5
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 1995
  • Cylindrical chokes are used widely as components of hydraulic equipments. The dynamic charac teristics between flowrate and pressure drop through the cylindrical chokes were discussed by the frequency characteristics of the chokes. It was assumed no pressure recovery occured at the downstream neighborhood of the choke. The pulsating jetflow from outlet of cylindrical chokes shows very complex behaviours which are quite different from the steady jetflow but it is not clarified quantitatively. In order to utilize the chokes as a flowmeter, it is indispensable to discuss the estimation of the dynamics of pressure drop in the downstream jetflow region of cylindrical chokes. In this experimental study, the dynamic behaviours of the jetflow in the downstream region of cylindrical chokes are investigated precisely by using flow visualization. In the results of experimental sutdy, it is clarified that the retachment length depended on pressure wave is compared with it depended on velocity wave.

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