• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.109-124
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• 2020

Using panel data on freight rates and ship prices in the dry freighter market from January 2015 to December 2019, this study investigates the characteristics of shipping industry fluctuations. The analysis aims at two aspects of academic contribution. First, this study analyzes the relationship between shipping indicators and ship price based on separate dry-bulk ships, while the previous research considered the overall shipping index and weighted average ship prices. Second, the VAR model for the causality test is extended to a heterogeneous mixed panel model capable of limiting coefficients. There is a peak estimated by removing the cross-correlation problem, which is mainly raised in panel data analysis, using bootstrap estimation and solving the problem of information loss due to differences in non-stationary data. An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between economic fluctuations and ship price shows that the effect on the ship price from the freight is significant at the 1% level. This implies that there is a one-way relationship with demand in the shipping industry rather than a bilateral relationship.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.46-53
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• 2015

Electrical construction cost index is composed of the cost of albor and material. The producer price index is used to the cost of material. The Bank of Korea restructured the formation method and the basic period of the producer price index in 2013. Because fixed-weighted method can't faithfully reflect industrial structure changes. The weighted value and price index of fixed-weighted method is fixed on the basicp eriod. Electrical construction cost index is changed from fixed-weighted method to chain-weighted method in september 2014, because of these on the need. But the change of organization in formation method changes the weighted value. So there is the need of analysis about the statistical continuity of electrical construction cost index. This study is focused on the time series analysis between fixed-weighted and chain-weighted electrical construction cost index. We uses unit root test, cointegration test, regression analysis of long and short term equation, fitness for the estimation of static forecast as time series analysis. We verify that chain-weighted electrical construction cost index can be replaced to fixed-weighted construction cost index accounting analyses result. So users of it recognize that chain-weighted electrical construction cost index has statistical continuity.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.157-165
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• 2016

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of the shipping industry real economy index on the stock prices of domestic shipping companies. The parameters used in this analysis were the stock price of H Company in South Korea and shipping industry real economy indices including BDI, CCFI and HRCI. The period analysis was from 2012 to 2015. The weekly data for four years of the stock price index of shipping companies, BDI, CCFI, and HRCI were used. The effects of CCFI and HRCI on the stock price index of domestic shipping companies were analyzed using the VAR model, and the effects of BDI on the stock price index of domestic shipping companies were analyzed using the VECM model. The VAR model analysis results showed that CCFI and HRCI had negative effects on the stock price index, and the VECM model analysis results showed that BDI also had a negative effect on the stock price index.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.546-554
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• 2018

The Bulk market, unlike the line market, is characterized by stiff competition where certain ship or freight owners have no influence on freight rates. However, freights are subject to macroeconomic variables and economic external shock which should be considered in determining management or chartering decisions. According to the results analyzed by use of ARIMA Inventiom model, the impact of the financial crisis was found to have a very strong bearing on the BDI index. First, according to the results of the VEC model, the libor rate affects the BDI index negatively (-) while exchange rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). Secondly, according to the results of the VEC model's J ohanson test, the order ship volume affects the BDI index by negatively (-) while China's economic growth rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). This shows that the shipping company has moved away from the simple carrier and responded appropriately to changes in macroeconomic variables (economic fluctuations, interest rates and exchange rates). It is believed that the shipping companies should be more aggressive in its "trading" management strategy in order to prevent any unfortunate situation such as the Hanjin Shipping incident.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.1-17
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• 2019

This article analyzes causal relationships among gross domestic product(GDP), electricity consumption, carbon dioxide($CO_2$) emission and foreign direct investments(FDI) inflow of Korea over the period from 1976 to 2014, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). As the results, this article found (1) a long-run bi-directional causality between GDP and electricity consumption, which may imply a negative impact of electricity consumption-saving policy on economic growth, (2) uni-directional short- and long-run causalities running from $CO_2$ emission to GDP, and a uni-directional long-run causality running from $CO_2$ emission to electricity consumption, which can result in a negative impact of $CO_2$ emission reduction policy on economic growth and electricity consumption, (3) a uni-directional long-run causality running from FDI to GDP, and uni-directional short- and long-run causalities running from FDI to electricity consumption, which may result from relatively lower electricity prices than investing countries, (4) no causality between FDI and $CO_2$ emission, which is based on the characteristics of FDI composed of service industries. Considering the above causal relationships among the four variables, the policy implication needs to focus on the electricity demand management based on the relevant R&Ds, and on the gradual transition from fossil fuel- to renewable-energy. Adaptive policy to increase the FDI inflow is also needed.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.127-163
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• 2023

The objective of this study is to investigate the volatility spillover effects among BDI, CCFI and SCFI. This paper will divide the empirical analysis section into two periods to analyze and compare the differences in volatility spillover effect between shipping freight indices before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 separately. First, in order to compare the mean spillover impact and index lead-lag correlations in BDI and CCFI indices, along with BDI and SCFI indices before and after COVID-19, the co-integration analysis and the test of Granger causality built on the VAR model were utilized. Second, the impulse response and variance decomposition are employed in this work to investigate how the shipping freight index responds to shocks experienced by itself and other freight indices in a short period. Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the results demonstrated that the BDI freight index is the Granger cause of the variable CCFI freight index. But the BDI and CCFI freight indices have no apparent lead-lag relationships after COVID-19, and this empirical result echoes the cointegration test result. After the COVID-19 epidemic, the SCFI index leads the BDI index. This study employs the VAR-BEKK-GARCH joint model to explore the volatility spillover results between dry bulk and container transport markets before and after COVID-19. The empirical results demonstrate that after COVID-19, fluctuations in the BDI index still affect the CCFI index in the maritime market. However, there is no proof of a volatility spillover relationship between the BDI and SCFI after the COVID-19 epidemic. This study will provide an insight into the volatility relationship among BDI, CCFI and SCFI before and after the the COVID-19 epidemic occurred.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.263-280
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• 2011

The global financial crisis, triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, has put the world economy into the recession with financial market turmoil. I tested whether variables were cointegrated or whether there was an equilibrium relationship. Also, Generalized impulse-response function (GIRF) and accumulation impulse-response function (AIRF) may be used to understand and characterize the time series dynamics inherent in economical systems comprised of variables that may be highly interdependent. Moreover, the IRFs enables us to simulate the response in freight to a shock in the USD/JPY exchange rate, Dow Jones industrial average index, Dow Jones volatility, Chinese Import volatility. The result on the cointegration test show that the hypothesis of no cointergrating vector could be rejected at the 5 percent level. Also, the empirical analysis of cointegrating vector reveals that the increases of USD/JPY exchange rate have negative relations with freight. The result on the impulse-response analysis indicate that freight respond negatively to volatility, and then decay very quickly. Consequently, the results highlight the potential usefulness of the multivariate time series techniques accounting to behavior of Freight.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.151-180
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• 2003

We examine the interdependence of the major Asia-Pacific stock markets including S&P 500, FTSE 100, Kualar Lumpur Composite, Straits Times, Hang Seng, NIKKEI 225 and KOSPI 200 from October 4, 1995 to March 31,2000. The analysis employs the vector-auto-regression, Granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition using daily returns on the national stock market indices. The findings in this paper indicate that the volatilities of all countries has grown after IMF crisis, while there is no significance in cointegration test of both total period and sub-periods. This result implies that investors are able to get abnormal returns by investment diversification according to the portfolio theory. We find that while the effect from NIKKEI 225 to others is relatively weak, the interdependence from S&P 500 to other countries is strong. Also we find that the strong effect from Straits Times to Hang Seng exists. This study suggests that there is slight feedback relation between KOSPI 200 and Kualar Lumpur Composite, Straits Times, Hang Seng stock market.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.181-200
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• 2003

Comovement of international stock market prices has been lately a major controversy in the global stock market. This paper explores whether the common trend has really existed among the US, Japan and Korea's stock markets using the econometric techniques such as VAR, VECM as applied. Pair of indices from the exchange market and the over-the-counter market in each country has been tested, and the exchange market only has been turned out that the common trend existed. The dynamic analyses using the Granger causality test, impulse response function, and the forecast error decomposition have followed to show that the US stock market has played some important role in the Korea and Japan's market in the exchange as well as in the OTC market. The results of the paper imply that the more careful investigation with respect to the co-integration may be necessary in the global market integration studies.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.377-401
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• 2011

Under the WTO system, direct export support system that provides financial and tax related support is altogether prohibited. This presented an obstacle in strengthening competitiveness of Korean export business and in increasing exports continuously. One of the methods used to solve this problem was to actively leverage export insurance. In Korea, export insurance services have been conducted by the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (k-sure) to promote export. Korea has been among the world's active users of the export insurance system. Given this situation, this paper examines the effectiveness of the Korea export insurance system in the promotion of export. In particular, this study analyzed about discriminating effects of the export insurance on the export of big and small-medium business. In order to analyze, We introduce a Export Supply Function model. In this paper, We construct two model. The one is about big business, the other is small-medium business. For empirical analysis, unit-root test was conducted to understand the safety of time series. The results show that all variables are not I(0) time series. Instead, they are I(1) time series. To this, cointegration verification was conducted based on the use of Johansen verification method to define the existence (or non-existence) of long-term balance relationship among variables. The results come out as follows. The export insurance of big business has a stronger effect on export than that of small-medium business. The cause of these results is due to the distinct structure of Korea industries. In view of the fact that the insurance can make the risk decreased. We can say that the export insurance affects the export of a high-risk country.