• Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.133-149
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• 2003

Local stability of steady states of an epidemic model is considered. An age structured S-I-R epidemic model with separable inter-cohort force of infection with external force is considered. Stability result for the nontrivial steady states is obtained.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.53-88
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• 2006

The major aim of this paper is to develop a hypothetical set of age-specific fertility rates which are logically derived and reasonably accurate in the projection of future population. The first procedure is to select a generalized log-gamma distribution model, which includes Coale-McNeil nuptiality model, in order to estimate and project a set of age-specific fertility rates by birth cohort and birth order. The second is to apply the log-gamma model with an empirical adjustment to the actual data to estimate and project the future fertility rates for relatively young birth cohorts who did not complete their reproductive career. This study reconstructs or translates a set of cohort age-specific fertility rates into a set of period age-specific fertility rates which must be hypothesized in order to establish the broader framework of future population projection. For example, the fertility at age 20 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at age 20 for the cohort born in 1990, while the fertility at age 21 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at 21 for the cohort born in 1989. In turn, once a set of age-specific fertility rates for the cohorts who were born up to the year of 2010, it is possible for one to establish an hypothetical set of period age-specific fertility rates which will be needed to project the future population until the year of 2055. The difference in the hypothetical system of age-specific fertility rates between this study and the 2005 special population projection comes from the fact that the fertility estimation/projection model used in this study was skillfully exploited to reflect better actual trend of fertility decline caused by rise in marriage age and increasing proportion of those who remain single until their end of reproduction. In this regard, this paper argues that the set of age-specific fertility rates derived from this study is more logical and reasonably accurate than the set of those used for the 2005 special projection. In the population projection, however, the fundamental issue of the hypothetical setting of age-specific fertility rates in relation to the fertility estimation/projection model is about how skillfully one can handle the period effects. It is not easy for one to completely cope with the problem of period effects except for the a minor period adjustment based on recent actual data, along with the given framework of a cohort-based fertility estimation/projection model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.1295-1309
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• 2016

This paper is to reproduce the result of Kim et al. (2014) by deriving a benchmark dose lower bound (BMDL) of lead based on the 2005 cohort data set of Children's Health and Environmental Research (CHEER) data set. The ADHD rating scales in the 2005 cohort were not consistent along the three follow-ups since two different ADHD rating scales were used in the cohort. We first unified the ADHD rating scales in the 2005 cohort by deriving a conversion formula using a penalized linear spline. We then constructed two linear mixed models for the 2005 cohort which reflected the longitudinal characteristics of the data set. The first model introduced the random intercept and the random slope terms and the second model assumed the first order autoregressive structure of the error term. Using these two models, we derived the BMDLs of lead and reconfirmed the "regression to the mean" nature of the ADHD score discovered by Kim et al. (2014). We also noticed that there was a definite difference between the sampling distributions of the two cohorts. As a result, taking this difference into account, we were able to obtain the consistent result with Kim et al. (2014).

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.13-28
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• 2018

The ministry of Environment of Korea initiated two follow-up surveys in 2005 and 2006 to investigate environmental effect on children's health. These two cohorts, referred to as the 2005 Cohort and 2006 Cohort, were followed up three times every two years. This data set was referred to as the Children's Health and Environmental Research (CHEER) data set. This paper reproduces the existing research results of Kim et al. (Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society, 25, 987-998, 2014) and Lee et al. (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 29, 1295-1310, 2016) and derive a benchmark dose lower limit (BMDL) for blood lead level for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) after pooling two cohort data sets. The different ADHD rating scales were unified by applying the conversion formula proposed by Lee et al. (2016). The random effect model and AR(1) model were built to reflect the longitudinal characteristics and regression to the mean phenomenon. Based on these models the BMDLs for blood lead levels were derived using the BMDL formula and the simulation. We obtained a hight level of BMDLs when we pooled two independent cohort data sets.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.2991-2995
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• 2012

Background: India shows some of the highest rates of cervical cancer worldwide, and more than 70% of the population is living in rural villages. Prospective cohort studies to determine the risk factors for cervical cancer are very rare from low and medium resource countries. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of risk factors related to cervical cancer in a rural setting in South India. Material and methods: Sociodemographic and reproductive potential risk factors for cervical cancer were studied using the data from a cohort of 30,958 women who constituted the unscreened control group in a randomised screening trial in Dindigul district, Tamilnadu, India. The analysis was accomplished with the Cox proportional hazard regression model. Results: Women of increasing age (HR=2.4; 95% CI: 1.6, 3.8 in 50-59 vs 30-39), having many pregnancies (HR=7.1; 1.0, 52 in 4+ vs 0) and no education (HR=0.6; 0.2, 0.7 in high vs none) were found to be at significantly increased risk of cervical cancer. Conclusion: This cohort study gives very strong evidence to say that education is the fundamental factor among the sociodemographic and reproductive determinants of cervical cancer in low resource settings. Public awareness through education and improvements in living standards can play an important role in reducing the high incidence of cervical cancer in India. These findings further stress the importance of formulating public health policies aimed at increasing awareness and implementation of cervical cancer screening programmes.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.243-248
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• 2013

Background: Associations between elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) and cancer risk have been reported for many years, but the results from prospective cohort studies remains controversial. A meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies was therefore conducted to address this issue. Methods: Eligible studies were identified by searching the PubMed and EMBASE up to October 2012. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) was calculated by using random effects model. Results: Eleven prospective cohort studies involving a total of 194,796 participants and 11,459 cancer cases were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled HR per natural log unit change in CRP was 1.105 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.033-1.178) for all-cancer, 1.308 (95% CI: 1.097-1.519) for lung cancer, 1.040 (95% CI: 0.910-1.170) for breast cancer, 1.063 (95% CI: 0.965-1.161) for prostate cancer, and 1.055 (95% CI: 0.925-1.184) for colorectal cancer. Dose-response analysis showed that the exponentiated linear trend for a change of one natural log unit in CRP was 1.012 (95% CI: 1.006-1.018) for all-cancer. No evidence of publication bias was observed. Conclusions: The results of this meta-analysis showed that the elevated levels of CRP are associated with an increased risk of all-cancer, lung cancer, and possibly breast, prostate and colorectal cancer. The result supports a role of chronic inflammation in carcinogenesis. Further research effort should be performed to identify whether CRP, as a marker of inflammation, has a direct role in carcinogenesis.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.23-29
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• 2008

Objectives : We examined the association between alcohol consumption and incidence of colorectal cancer in elderly Koreans. Methods : The cohort members (n=14,304) consisted of 4,834 males and 9,470 females derived from the Korea Elderly Pharmacoepidemiologic Cohort (KEPEC), a population-based dynamic cohort. They were aged 65 years old or older and lived in Busan between 1993-1998; they were beneficiaries of the Korean Medical Insurance Corporation (KMIC). Baseline information was surveyed by a self-administered, mailed questionnaire. This study population was restricted to 14,304 participants who reported alcohol drinking habits on the questionnaire and had not been diagnosed with colorectal cancer at baseline. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of status, type, frequency and daily average amount of alcohol consumption were computed with Cox's proportional hazard model, with the never-drinkers as a reference group and controlling for age and gender. Results : After 4.82 person-years of mean follow-up 112 cases of colorectal cancer occurred. The incidence densities of colorectal cancer were 161 (95% CI=123-200) for never-drinkers, 219 (95% CI=125-339) for ex-drinkers, and 137 (95% CI=84-189) for current-drinkers per 100,000 person-year. The status, type, frequency, and daily average amount of alcohol consumption were not significantly related to the incidence of colorectal cancer after controlling for age and gender. Conclusions : There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer among elderly people after controlling for age and gender.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.1023-1029
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• 2014

Background: The purpose of our study was to elucidate the joint effects of combined smoking and alcohol intake on esophageal cancer mortality in Japanese men through a large cohort study with a 20-year follow-up period. Materials and Methods: The Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk (JACC Study) was established in the late 1980s, including 46,395 men and 64,190 women aged 40 years and older and younger than 80. Follow-up of these participants was conducted until 2009. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze data for 42,408 people excluding female participants, 411 people with histories of malignant neoplasms, and 3,576 with unclear smoking and drinking data. Results: The joint effects of age at start of smoking and amount of alcohol consumed per day were compared with non-smokers and non-drinkers or those consuming less than one unit of alcohol per day. The mortality risk was 9.33 (95% confidence interval, 2.55-34.2) for those who started smoking between ages 10 and 19 years and drinking at least three units of alcohol per day. Regarding the joint effects of cumulative amount of smoking and alcohol intake, the risk was high when both smoking and alcohol intake were above a certain level. Conclusions: In this Japanese cohort study, increased cancer mortality risks were observed, especially for people who both started smoking early and drank alcohol. Quitting smoking or not starting to smoke at any age and reducing alcohol consumption are important for preventing esophageal cancer in Japan.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.313-320
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• 2022

The KoreaN Cohort Study for Outcomes in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease (KNOW-CKD) was launched in 2011 with the support of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. The study was designed with the aim of exploring the various clinical features and characteristics of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Koreans, and elucidating the risk factors for CKD progression and adverse outcomes of CKD. For the cohort study, nephrologists at 9 tertiary university-affiliated hospitals participated in patient recruitment and follow-up. Biostatisticians and epidemiologists also participated in the basic design and structuring of the study. From 2011 until 2016, the KNOW-CKD Phase I recruited 2238 adult patients with CKD from stages G1 to G5, who were not receiving renal replacement therapy. The KNOW-CKD Phase II recruitment was started in 2019, with an enrollment target of 1500 subjects, focused on diabetic nephropathy and hypertensive kidney diseases in patients with reduced kidney function who are presumed to be at a higher risk of adverse outcomes. As of 2021, the KNOW-CKD investigators have published articles in the fields of socioeconomics, quality of life, nutrition, physical activity, renal progression, cardiovascular disease and outcomes, anemia, mineral bone disease, serum and urine biomarkers, and international and inter-ethnic comparisons. The KNOW-CKD researchers will elaborate a prediction model for various outcomes of CKD such as the development of end-stage kidney disease, major adverse cardiovascular events, and death.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.49-70
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• 2010

Customer population management models can be classified into three categories: the first category includes the models that analyze the customer population at cohort level; the second one deals with the customer population at aggregate level; the third one has interest in the interactions among the customer populations in the competitive market. Our study proposes a model that can analyze the dynamics of customer population in consumer-durables market at aggregate level. The dynamics of customer population includes the retention curves from the purchase or at a specific duration time, the duration time expectancy at a specific duration time, and customer population growth or decline including net replacement rate, intrinsic rate of increase, and the generation time of customer population. For this study, we adopt mathematical ecology models, redefine them, and restructure interdisciplinary models to analyze the dynamics of customer population at aggregate level. We use the data of previous research on dynamic customer population management at cohort level to compare its results with those of ours and to demonstrate the useful analytical effects which the precious research cannot provide for marketers.