• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2003.04a
• /
• pp.30-37
• /
• 2003

o Cohort study became the major approach to study of chronic diseases such as CVD and cancer o Cohort can be population-based or volunteer-based o Types of be population-be categorized by source population and selection mechanism o More and more cohort studies involve biological specimens, such as blood, urine, toenail, cheek cells, etc. o Multi-center and multi-national collaboration is an effective way to increase sample size. o Current statistical method typically use time-to-event analysis by Cox proportional hazard model.

• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.28 no.4
• /
• pp.378-391
• /
• 2018

Background: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. Methods: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. Results: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show 'healthy ageing' phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of -1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%-1.80% in healthcare expenditure. Conclusion: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, 'healthy ageing effect' suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.55 no.5
• /
• pp.464-474
• /
• 2022

Objectives: We introduced the cohort studies included in the Korean Cohort Consortium (KCC), focusing on large-scale cohort studies established in Korea with a prolonged follow-up period. Moreover, we also provided projections of the follow-up and estimates of the sample size that would be necessary for big-data analyses based on pooling established cohort studies, including population-based genomic studies. Methods: We mainly focused on the characteristics of individual cohort studies from the KCC. We developed "PROFAN", a Shiny application for projecting the follow-up period to achieve a certain number of cases when pooling established cohort studies. As examples, we projected the follow-up periods for 5000 cases of gastric cancer, 2500 cases of prostate and breast cancer, and 500 cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The sample sizes for sequencing-based analyses based on a 1:1 case-control study were also calculated. Results: The KCC consisted of 8 individual cohort studies, of which 3 were community-based and 5 were health screening-based cohorts. The population-based cohort studies were mainly organized by Korean government agencies and research institutes. The projected follow-up period was at least 10 years to achieve 5000 cases based on a cohort of 0.5 million participants. The mean of the minimum to maximum sample sizes for performing sequencing analyses was 5917-72 102. Conclusions: We propose an approach to establish a large-scale consortium based on the standardization and harmonization of existing cohort studies to obtain adequate statistical power with a sufficient sample size to analyze high-risk groups or rare cancer subtypes.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.815-822
• /
• 2001

The aim of this study is to estimate the seroconversion date of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) infection for the HIV infected patients in Korea. Data are collected from two cohorts. The first cohort is a group of "seroprevalent" patients who were seropositive and AIDS-free at entry. The other is a group of "seroincident" patients who were initially seronegative but later converted to HIV antibody-positive. The seroconversion dates of the seroincident cohort are available while those of the seroprevalent cohort are not. Estimation of seroconversion date is important because it can be used to calculate the incubation period of AIDS which is defined as the elapsed time between the HIV infection and the development of AIDS. In this paper, a Weibull regression model Is fitted for the seroincident cohort using information about the elapsed time since seroconversion and the CD4$^{+}$ cell count.The seroconversion dates for the seroprevalent cohort are imputed on the basis of the marker of maturity of HIV infection percent of CD4$^{+}$cell count.unt.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• v.14 no.10
• /
• pp.5891-5893
• /
• 2013

Incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves because there is a limit reflecting the prevalence of hepatitis virus carriers in the cohort. The author fitted logistic curves to incidence/mortality data covering the nine five-year cohorts born in 1911-1955 of both sexes. Goodness-of-fit of logistic curves was sufficiently precise to be used for future predictions. Younger cohorts born in 1936 or later were predicted to show constant decline in incidence/mortality in the future. The male cohort born in 1931-35 showed an elevated incidence/mortality of liver cancer early in their lives supporting the previous claim that this particular cohort had suffered massive HCV infection due to nation-wide drug abuse in the 1950s. Declining case-fatality observed in younger cohorts suggested improved treatment of liver cancer. This study demonstrated that incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves and fitted logistic formulae can be used for future prediction. Given the predicted decline of incidence/mortality in younger cohorts, liver cancer is likely to be lost to history in the not-so-distant future.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.51-60
• /
• 1996

The purpose of this study is to identify the objective picture of developmental pattern of marital satisfaction of couples based on family life cycle length of marriage marriage cohort birth cohort and age of couples using data from 317 couples in urban cities. The result indicate that the U-curve of marital satisfaction is the special pattern of family life cycle while W-curve is more dominant pattern when data are analysed with length of marriage birth cohort and marriage cohort. The couples differ in their assessment of marital satisfaction through entire their life span which seems for wives to become more dissatisfied over time. The similarity of developmental pattern the spouses appears only in their birth cohort. Discussion and recommendations for future research of the marital satisfaction are suggested.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• v.16 no.9
• /
• pp.3951-3955
• /
• 2015

Background: Colorectal cancer mortality has started to decrease in several developed countries in Asia. The current study aimed to present the long-term trends in colorectal cancer mortality in Korea using joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort modeling. Materials and Methods: The number of colorectal cancer deaths and the population for each 5-year age group were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013 for adults 30 years and older. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to determine changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates, and age-period-cohort analysis was performed to describe trends in colorectal cancer mortality using the intrinsic estimator method. Results: In men, the age-standardized mortality rate for colorectal cancer increased from 1984 to 2003, and the mortality rates stabilized thereafter, whereas the mortality rate of colorectal cancer in women has decreased since 2004. The age-specific mortality rate of colorectal cancer increased in both men and women over time, whereas decreases in the age-specific mortality rate in younger cohorts were observed. In the age-period-cohort analysis, old age and recent period were associated with higher mortality for both men and women. The birth cohort born after 1919 showed reduced colorectal cancer mortality in both men and women. Conclusions: Our study showed a recent decreasing trend in colorectal cancer mortality in women and a stable trend in men after 2003-2004. These changes in colorectal cancer mortality may be attributed to birth cohort effects.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
• /
• v.65 no.1
• /
• pp.201-226
• /
• 2013

This study aims to identify changes in early work career of youth cohort entering the labor market pre and post-the economic crisis and compare career pathway types of different cohorts. Labor market experiences of youth cohort were constructed by sequencing the number of organizations, kinds of jobs, the scale of the business, and type of employment. In addition, a holistic sequence was created by including complementary factors. In this sense, the labor market experience in this study was conceptualized as a process involving continuous sequences and hierarchical and orderly changes which differs from a simple job mobility. Sequence analysis involving Optimal Matching method was conducted to examine whether such cohort-differences in labor market experiences were related to differences in distribution of career pathway types. The result showed that the post-economic crisis cohort had a relatively higher likelihood of falling into the non-employment type, unemployment type, non-corporate employment type, irregular employment type, and mobile employment type. These findings provide empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the employment precariousness of cohort has exacerbated after the economic crisis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
• /
• v.12 no.3 s.32
• /
• pp.39-42
• /
• 2006

The purpose of this study is to develop rural population model adapting cohort survival method with sift-share effects. Administrative district in this study is below Myun: about 2,000 population. Population data of rural area in 1990, 1995, and 2000 by age cohort were selected for applying developed model. Damping coefficient from population data was calculated as 7% and results applying this coefficient in rural population data below the error from 12% to 1.06%. In detail, most of cohorts fitted with developed model except from 15 to 29 age groups. Application result of small population area; DaesulMyun revealed that main factor of population change is not natural change but migration.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.75-95
• /
• 2011

A birth cohort approach to the Household life-cycle model could be an alternative to cross-sectional data. In this study, each residential mobilities of birth cohorts' is traced by the cohort data from repeated cross-section in the case of Jinju city. Because of the differences in fertilities by era, the volume of each cohort as a consumer in housing has varied and the condition of housing stock also has changed as the time goes by. These changes in housing make not only age effect stressed in Rossi's model, but also cohort and period effect. Due to theses effects of time, every residential mobility trajectories of generations' is different especially in earlier life stages. As households get older, it is found that the age effect reduces and the probability of residential mobility is lower. As this result, the residential succession and filtering between the earlier and latter generations is weakened and the residential segregation could be happened by birth cohort.