• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cohort Method

Search Result 250, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

Spatial Distribution of Aging District in Taejeon Metropolitan City (대전광역시 노령화 지구의 공간적 분포 패턴)

  • Jeong, Hwan-Yeong;Ko, Sang-Im
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
    • /
    • v.6 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-19
    • /
    • 2000
  • This study is to investigate and analyze regional patterns of aging in Taejeon Metropolitan city-the overpopulated area of Choong-Cheong Province-by cohort analysis method. According to the population structure transition caused by rapid social and economic changes, Korea has made a rapid progress in population aging since 1970. This trend is so rapid that we should prepare for and cope with aging society. It is not only slow to cope with it in our society, but also there are few studies on population aging of the geographical field in Korea. The data of this study are the reports of Population and Housing Censuses in 1975 and 1985 and General Population and Housing Censuses with 10% sample survey in 1995 taken by National Statistical Office. The research method is to sample as the aging district the area with high aged population rate where the populations over 60 reside among total population during the years of 1975, 1985, 1995 and to sample the special districts of decreasing population where the population decreases very much and the special districts of increasing population in which the population increases greatly, presuming that the reason why aged population rate increases is that non-elderly population high in mobility moves out. It is then verified and ascertained whether it is true or not with cohort analysis method by age. Finally regional patterns in the city are found through the classification and modeling by type based on the aging district, the special districts of decreasing population, and the special districts of increasing population. The characteristics of the regional patterns show that there is social population transition and that non-elderly population moves out. The aging district with the high aged population rate is divided into high-level keeping-up type, relative falling type below the average of Taejeon city in aging progress, and relative rising type above the average of the city. This district can be found at both the central area of the city and the suburbs because Taejeon city has the characteristic of over-bounded city. But it cannot be found at the new built-up area with the in-migration of large population. The special districts of decreasing population where the population continues to decrease can be said to be the population doughnuts found at the CBD and its neighboring inner area. On the other hand, the special districts of increasing population where the population continues to increase are located at the new built-up area of the northern part in Taejeon city. The special districts of decreasing population are overlapping with the aging district and higher in aged population rate by the out-migration of non-elderly population. The special districts of increasing population are not overlapping with the aging district and lower in aged population rate by the in-migration of non-elderly population. To clarify the distribution map of the aging district, the special districts of decreasing and increasing population and the aging district are divided into four groups such as the special districts of decreasing population group-the same one as the aging district, the special districts of decreasing population group, the special districts of increasing population group, and the other district. With the cohort analysis method by age used to investigate the definite increase and decrease of aging population through population transition of each group, it is found that the progress of population aging is closely related to the social population fluctuation, especially that aged population rate is higher with the out-migration of non-elderly population. This is to explain each model of CBD, inner area, and the suburbs after modeling the aging district, the special districts of decreasing population, and the special districts of increasing population in Taejeon city. On the assumption that the city area is a concentric circle, it is possible to divide it into three areas such as CBD(A), the inner area(B), and the suburbs(C). The special districts of increasing and decreasing population in the city are divided into three districts-the special districts of decreasing population(a), the special districts of increasing population(b), and the others(c). The aging district of this city is divided into the aging district($\alpha$) and the others($\beta$). And then modeling these districts, it is probable to find regional patterns in the city. $Aa{\alpha}$ and $Ac{\beta}$ patterns are found in the CBD, in which $Aa{\alpha}$ is the special district of decreasing population and is higher in aged population rate because of aged population low in mobility staying behind and out-migration of non-elderly population. $Ba{\alpha}$, $Ba{\beta}$, $Bb{\beta}$, and $Bc{\beta}$ patterns are found in the inner area, in which neighboring area $Ba{\alpha}$ pattern is located. $Bb{\beta}$ pattern is located at the new developing area of newly built apartment complex. $Cb{\beta}$, $Cc{\alpha}$, and $Cc{\beta}$ patterns are found in the suburbs, among which $Cc{\alpha}$ pattern is highest in population aging. It is likely that the $Cc{\beta}$ under housing land readjustment on a large scale will be the $Cb{\beta}$ pattern. As analyzed above, marriage and out-migration of new family, non-elderly population, with house purchase are main factors in accelerating population aging in the central area of the city. Population aging is responsible for the great increase of aged population with longer life expectancy by the low death rate, the out-migration of non-elderly population, and the age group of new aged population in the suburbs. It is necessary to investigate and analyze the regional patterns of population aging at the time when population problems caused by aging as well as longer life expectancy are now on the increase. I hope that this will help the future study on population aging of the geographical field in Korea. As in the future population aging will be a major problem in our society, local autonomy should make a plan for the problem to the extent that population aging progresses by regional groups and inevitably prepare for it.

  • PDF

Self-poisoning as a Target Group for Prevention of Suicide (자살 예방을 위한 집중관리 대상으로서의 중독)

  • Kwak, Moon Hwan;Kang, Hyun Young;Lee, Si Jin;Han, Kap Su;Kim, Su Jin;Lee, Eu Jung;Lee, Sung Woo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.93-101
    • /
    • 2018
  • Purpose: The Korean government has tried to decrease the suicide death rate over the last decade. Suicide attempts, particularly non-fatal attempts, are the most powerful known risk factor for a completed suicide. An analysis of suicide attempt methods will help establish the effective preventive action of suicide. Fit prevention according to the method of suicide attempt may decrease the incidence of suicide death. Self-poisoning is suggested as a major method of both suicide attempts and suicide death. The aim of this study was to determine if a self-poisoning patient is a suitable target for the prevention of the suicide. Methods: This was retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort, which included patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) after a self-harm or suicide attempt from Jan 2013 to Dec 2017. The proportion of methods in suicide attempts, psychological consultation, and fatality according to the suicide attempt method were analyzed. The types of poison were also analyzed. Results: Poisoning was the most common method of suicide attempts (52.1%). The rate of psychological consultations were 18.8% for all patients and 29.1% for poison patients (p<0.001). The rate of mortality in poisoning was 0.6%. Psychological consultation was performed more frequently in admission cases than discharged cases. The most common materials of poisons was psychological medicines and sedatives that had been prescribed at clinics or hospital. Conclusion: Self-poisoning is a major method of suicide attempt with a high rate of psychiatric consultation, low mortality rate, versus others methods. The prevention of suicide death for suicide attempts may focus on self-poisoning, which is the major method of suicide attempts. A suitable aftercare program for self-poisoning may be an effective method for preventing suicide if an early diagnosis and management of psychiatric disorders through psychiatric consultation can be made, and early connection to social prevention program for non-fatal patients are possible.

A Classification Method of Delirium Patients Using Local Covering-Based Rule Acquisition Approach with Rough Lower Approximation (러프 하한 근사를 갖는 로컬 커버링 기반 규칙 획득 기법을 이용한 섬망 환자의 분류 방법)

  • Son, Chang Sik;Kang, Won Seok;Lee, Jong Ha;Moon, Kyoung Ja
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.137-144
    • /
    • 2020
  • Delirium is among the most common mental disorders encountered in patients with a temporary cognitive impairment such as consciousness disorder, attention disorder, and poor speech, particularly among those who are older. Delirium is distressing for patients and families, can interfere with the management of symptoms such as pain, and is associated with increased elderly mortality. The purpose of this paper is to generate useful clinical knowledge that can be used to distinguish the outcomes of patients with delirium in long-term care facilities. For this purpose, we extracted the clinical classification knowledge associated with delirium using a local covering rule acquisition approach with the rough lower approximation region. The clinical applicability of the proposed method was verified using data collected from a prospective cohort study. From the results of this study, we found six useful clinical pieces of evidence that the duration of delirium could more than 12 days. Also, we confirmed eight factors such as BMI, Charlson Comorbidity Index, hospitalization path, nutrition deficiency, infection, sleep disturbance, bed scores, and diaper use are important in distinguishing the outcomes of delirium patients. The classification performance of the proposed method was verified by comparison with three benchmarking models, ANN, SVM with RBF kernel, and Random Forest, using a statistical five-fold cross-validation method. The proposed method showed an improved average performance of 0.6% and 2.7% in both accuracy and AUC criteria when compared with the SVM model with the highest classification performance of the three models respectively.

Breast Cancer Trend in Iran from 2000 to 2009 and Prediction till 2020 using a Trend Analysis Method

  • Zahmatkesh, Bibihajar;Keramat, Afsaneh;Alavi, Nasrinossadat;Khosravi, Ahmad;Kousha, Ahmad;Motlagh, Ali Ghanbari;Darman, Mahboobeh;Partovipour, Elham;Chaman, Reza
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1493-1498
    • /
    • 2016
  • Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide with a rising incidence rate in most countries. Considering the increase in life expectancy and change in lifestyle of Iranian women, this study investigated the age-adjusted trend of breast cancer incidence during 2000-2009 and predicted its incidence to 2020. Materials and Methods: The 1997 and 2006 census results were used for the projection of female population by age through the cohort-component method over the studied years. Data from the Iranian cancer registration system were used to calculate the annual incidence rate of breast cancer. The age-adjusted incidence rate was then calculated using the WHO standard population distribution. The five-year-age-specific incidence rates were also obtained for each year and future incidence was determined using the trend analysis method. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated through the joinpoint regression method. Results: The bias adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer increased from 16.7 per 100,000 women in 2000 to 33.6 per 100,000 women in 2009. The incidence of breast cancer had a growing trend in almost all age groups above 30 years over the studied years. In this period, the age groups of 45-65 years had the highest incidence. Investigation into the joinpoint curve showed that the curve had a steep slope with an APC of 23.4% before the first joinpoint, but became milder after this. From 2005 to 2009, the APC was calculated as 2.7%, through which the incidence of breast cancer in 2020 was predicted as 63.0 per 100,000 women. Conclusions: The age-adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer continues to increas in Iranian women. It is predicted that this trend will continue until 2020. Therefore, it seems necessary to prioritize the prevention, control and care for breast cancer in Iran.

Application of Poisoning aBIG score for Prediction of Fatal Severity in Acute Adult Intoxications (성인 중증 중독환자 예측을 위한 새로운 지표 개발: aBIG score for poisoning)

  • Choe, Michael Sung Pil;Ahn, Jae Yun;Kang, In Gu;Lee, Mi Jin
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.14-21
    • /
    • 2014
  • Purpose: The objective of this study was to develop a new scoring tool that is comprehensively applicable and predicts fatality within 24 h of intoxication. Methods: This was a cohort study conducted in two emergency medical centers from 2011 to 2012. We identified factors associated with severe/fatality. Through a discriminant analysis, we devised the aBIG (age, Base deficit, Infection, and Glasgow coma scale) score. To compare the ability of aBIG to predict intoxication severity with that of previous scoring systems such as APACHE II, MODS, SAPS IIe, and SOFA, we determined the receiver operating characteristic curves of each variable in predicting severe-to-fatal toxicity. Results: Compared with the mild/moderate toxicity group (n=211), the severe/fatal group (n=143) had higher incidences of metabolic acidosis, infection, serious mental change, QTc prolongation and hepato-renal failure. Age, base deficit, infection-WBC count, and Glasgow Coma Scale were independently associated with severe/fatal poisoning. These variables were combined into the poisoning "aBIG" score [$0.28{\times}$Age group+$0.38{\times}WBC$ count/$10^3+0.52{\times}$Base deficit+$0.64{\times}$(15-GCS)], which were each calculated to have an area under the curve of 0.904 (95% confidence interval: 0.868-0.933). The aBIG poisoning score had an equivalent level of severity predictability as APACHE II and a superior than MODS, SOFA, and SAPS IIe. Conclusion: We developed a simplified scoring system using the four variables of age, base deficit, infected leukocytosis, and GCS. The poisoning aBIG score was a simple method that could be performed rapidly on admission to evaluate severity of illness and predict fatal severity in patients with acute intoxications.

  • PDF

Self Care Activity, Metabolic Control, and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in accordance with the Levels of Depression of Clients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (제2형 당뇨병 환자의 우울에 따른 자가간호 이행, 대사조절 및 심혈관계 위험지표)

  • Lee Hae-Jung;Park Kyung-Yeon;Park Hyeong-Sook
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
    • /
    • v.35 no.2
    • /
    • pp.283-291
    • /
    • 2005
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore the levels of depression experienced by clients (N=152) with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus(DM), and to compare the levels of self care activity, metabolic control and cardiovascular risk factors between depressed and non-depressed clients. Method: Participants aged 50 and above were conveniently recruited in B city. The levels of depression, self-care activity, metabolic control of glucose and lipids, and cardiovascular risk factors of the participants were measured by using questionnaires and blood tests from November, 2003 to June, 2004. Data was analyzed with descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, Spearman rho and t-test using the SPSS WIN 10.0 program. Result: The prevalence of depression(CES-D=16) among the participants was $44.1\%$. The levels of self-care activities(p=.012), glucose(p=.019), total cholesterol(p=.022), LDL(.007) and cardiovascular risk factors(p=.012) were significantly higher in the depressed group than those in the non-depressed group. Conclusion: Based on the findings, we concluded that many DM patients experience depression and the depression of type 2 DM clients is significantly related with self care activities, diabetic control, and cardiovascular complications. However, this study did not address causality among these variables. Therefore, further research, such as a longitudinal cohort study, is needed to identify causality among these variables.

Clinical Study on Safety and Efficacy of Qinin® (Cantharidin Sodium) Injection Combined with Chemotherapy in Treating Patients with Gastric Cancer

  • Zhan, Yi-Ping;Huang, Xin-En;Cao, Jie;Lu, Yan-Yan;Wu, Xue-Yan;Liu, Jin;Xu, Xia;Xu, Lin;Xiang, Jin;Ye, Li-Hong
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.13 no.9
    • /
    • pp.4773-4776
    • /
    • 2012
  • Objectives: To assess the efficacy, side effects, and the impact on quality of life with $Qinin^{(R)}$ (Cantharidin sodium) injection combined with chemotherapy for gastric cancer patients. Method: A consecutive cohort of 70 patients were divided into two groups: experimental group with cantharidin sodium injection combined with chemotherapy, while the control group received chemotherapy alone. After more than two courses of treatment, efficacy, quality of life and side effects were evaluated. Results: The response rate of experimental group was not significantly different from that of the control group (P>0.05), but differences were significant in clinical benefit response and KPS score. In addition, gastrointestinal reactions and the incidence of leukopenia were lower than in the control group (P<0.05). Conclusions: $Qinin^{(R)}$ (Cantharidin sodium) injection combined with chemotherapy enhances clinical benefit response, improving quality of life of gastric cancer patients and reducing side effects of chemotherapy. Thus $Qinin^{(R)}$ (Cantharidin sodium) injection deserves to be further investigated in randomized control clinical trails.

Development of a Premature Infant Pain Scale (PIPS) (미숙아 통증지표(Premature Infant Pain Scale) 개발)

  • Kim, Mi-Soon;Kim, Mi-Jin;Ham, Eun-Ha;Kim, Kyoung-Mi
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Fundamentals of Nursing
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.510-519
    • /
    • 2006
  • Purpose: To develop and validate a scale suitable and efficient scale for use in clinical practice as to assess pain in premature infants. Method: Pain indicators identified by observation of preform infants. A cohort of preform infants was studied prospectively to determine the construct validity, inter-rater reliability, and internal consistency of the scale. The PIPS uses four indicators of pain: corrected gestational age, heart rate, oxygen saturation, behavioral state. The validation study included 45 premature infants with gestational age of 37 weeks or less. Results: The inter-rater reliability of the PIPS was acceptable, with Pearson correlations ranging from.720 to.970. Internal consistency was high: Cronbach's alpha coefficients ranged from.551 to.653. There was a strong correlation between the PIPS and PIPP scores (each researcher's r=.743, each indicator's r=.914). Although gestational age showed no association between these factors and the sum, the other variables were positively associated with the sum. Time needed to calculate PIPS scores is was less than Premature Infant Pain Profile (PIPP) scores(p<.000). Conclusion: The validation data suggest that the PIPS is appropriate and efficient for assessing pain in premature infants. Further studies are required about to determine appropriate interventions for each pain score on the PIPS.

  • PDF

A Systematic Review on the Causative Medicines for Stevens-Johnson Syndrome (스티븐스-존슨증후군을 유발하는 주요 의약품별 위험도에 대한 체계적 문헌고찰)

  • Kwon, Kyoung-Eun;Jung, Sun-Young;Jung, Hyun-Joo;Kim, Bong Gi;Park, Byung-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.344-364
    • /
    • 2013
  • Background: Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are immune-complex-mediated hypersensitivity reactions that predominantly involve skin and mucous membranes. Despite the low incidence, both are considered medical emergencies as the mortality rate has been estimated at 30-50%. Although as many as half of cases are idiopathic, several drugs have been implicated as main cause of SJS/TEN. This review therefore aimed to identify drugs that were potentially associated with SJS/TEN and compare the relative risk of the medications. Method: A comprehensive search was performed using MEDLINE, EMBASE and 5 Korean databases. We defined study drugs as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), antibiotics, antiepileptics, and allopurinol. Only epidemiologic studies investigating associations between the above drugs and drug-induced SJS/TEN were included. Two reviewers independently selected and evaluated candidate papers and extracted odds ratios or incidence rates. Meta-analysis was performed only for drugs that were reported from 4 or more studies. Results: We found 8 case-control studies, 3 cohort studies and 1 RCT. The ranges of adjusted ORs were 0.6-34.0 for NSAIDs, 1.6-302.0 for antiepileptics, 0.3-10.0 for antibiotics and 1.0-187.0 for allopurinol. The drug with the highest incidence of SJS/TEN was carbamazepine (40 persons/1,000 DDD). Conclusion: Finally, the risk was highest in first 8 weeks after onset of treatment in all drugs.

Quality Evaluation for Census and Vital Statistics of Korea Using Demographic Analysis (인구통계학적 분석을 이용한 우리나라의 센서스 및 동태자료에 대한 질적 평가)

  • Jeon, Sae-Bom;Kim, Seong-Yong;Park, You-Sung
    • Survey Research
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-31
    • /
    • 2012
  • Demographic Analysis(DA) as well as Post Enumeration Survey(PES) are typical methods for evaluating completeness of census and vital statistics. In spite of its popularity, DA has never been attempted in Korea, while other international journals of demography have pointed out the backwardness of death registration in Korea in terms of DA approach. This paper introduces various DA methods and modifies them to be adequate for Korea census and vital statistics. Our method are also applied to reconstruct year-age-sex specific population and estimate their omission rates for year and age. Empirical analysis of census and vital statistics of Korea from 1985 to 2010 demonstrates high completeness of death registration in Korea, contrary to existing literatures. We also investigates abnormal patterns in census by comparing with reconstruction data in view of cohort, sex ratio and age ratio.

  • PDF