• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cohort Component Model

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Subnational Population Projections of Korea Based on Interregional Migration Forecasting: A Multiregional Cohort-Component Method (지역간 인구이동의 예측을 통한 우리나라 시도별 장래 인구 추계: 다지역 코호트-요인법의 적용)

  • Lee, Sang-Il;Cho, Dae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.98-120
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    • 2012
  • The main objective of this study is to conduct subnational population projections of Korea based on a multiregional cohort-component method. This objective is accomplished by: (i) establishing a viable framework to implement the multiregional cohort-component method with reference to the Markov chain model and Rogers' multiregional population projection model; (ii) applying the established framework to subnational population projections of Korea, 2005~2030. The main results are twofold. First, the proposed method turns out to be highly valid in a methodological sense, which is seen from a high level of coincidence between the estimated and the observed. Second, the projection results turn out to be highly useful in the sense that interregional migration flow matrices are resulted for projection periods. The projected migration flows are expected to provide invaluable information for an understanding of future population change and for a formulation of policy alternatives. This study is strongly inspired by the multiregional perspective emphasizing the evolution of multiple regional populations interconnected by interregional migration flows rather than the overall national change.

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Evaluation of Dietary Behaviors According to Sasang Constitution Using a Nutrition Quotient: A Korean Medicine Daejeon Citizen Cohort Study (성인 영양지수(Nutrition Quotient)를 이용한 사상체질에 따른 식습관 평가: 대전시민건강코호트)

  • Jeong, Kyoungsik;Park, Kihyun;Lee, Siwoo;Hwang, Ji-Yun;Baek, Younghwa
    • Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.86-95
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    • 2020
  • Objectives Meal and nutrition are important lifestyle factors that affect maintenance and promotion of health status and are also associated with chronic diseases. In Sasang constitutional medicine, dietary behavior according to the characteristics of Sasang constitution (SC) types is a key component in health management. The aim of this study was to evaluate the nutritional status and quality of meals according to the SC. Methods This was a cross-sectional study of 1,947 subjects surveyed in a community-based cohort called the Korean Medicine Daejeon Citizen Cohort study. Data were collected including demographic characteristics, Korea Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Questionnaire, and nutrition quotient (NQ) for adults. We analyzed the differences in NQ grade and scores among three SC types: Taeeumin (TE), Soeumin (SE), and Soyangin (SY), by conducting chi-square and ANCOVA tests. Results The distribution of SC into TE, SE, and SY types was 43.1%, 25.2%, and 31.8%, respectively. The mean NQ score of all subjects was 53.4±8.6. There was a significant difference in the distribution of NQ grades and mean of NQ scores among SC types, including total and four sub-factors: balance, diversity, moderation, and dietary behavior. The TE type had the lowest score for the moderation factors in the crude model. The SE type showed lower NQ scores than the TE and SY types in all domains except moderation after adjusting for variables. Conclusions We found that dietary behaviors had to be distinct according to the SC types. These results elucidate why it is important to develop a customized dietary habit management program considering the SC types.

Decomposition of Socioeconomic Inequality in Cardiovascular Disease Prevalence in the Adult Population: A Cohort-based Cross-sectional Study in Northwest Iran

  • Pourfarzi, Farhad;Moghadam, Telma Zahirian;Zandian, Hamed
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2022
  • Objectives: The incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is increasing in developing countries. This study aimed to decompose the socioeconomic inequality of CVD in Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional population-based study was conducted on 20 519 adults who enrolled in the Ardabil Non-Communicable Disease cohort study. Principal component analysis and multivariable logistic regression were used, respectively, to estimate socioeconomic status and to describe the relationships between CVD prevalence and the explanatory variables. The relative concentration index, concentration curve, and Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition model were used to measure and decompose the socioeconomic inequality. Results: The overall age-adjusted prevalence of CVD was 8.4% in northwest Iran. Multivariable logistic regression showed that older adults, overweight or obese adults, and people with hypertension and diabetes were more likely to have CVD. Moreover, people with low economic status were 38% more likely to have CVD than people with high economic status. The prevalence of CVD was mainly concentrated among the poor (concentration index, -0.077: 95% confidence interval, -0.103 to -0.060), and 78.66% of the gap between the poorest and richest groups was attributed to differences in the distribution of the explanatory variables included in the model. Conclusions: The most important factors affecting inequality in CVD were old age, chronic illness (hypertension and diabetes), marital status, and socioeconomic status. This study documented stark inequality in the prevalence of CVD, wherein the poor were more affected than the rich. Therefore, it is necessary to implement policies to monitor, screen, and control CVD in poor people living in northwest Iran.

A Study on Development of the Korea Agricultural Population Forecasting Model and long-term Prediction (농가인구예측 모형 개발 및 중장기 전망)

  • Han, Suk-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.3797-3806
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    • 2015
  • A population decline in rural area is correlated with the number of household, with agricultural workers, as a result, affects the farming income. Agricultural population is a foundation of agriculture structure. Agricultural population decline influences agricultural policies to be implemented for the future and there is concern about slowdown in productivity. The purpose of this study is to build the ability to use the model and conduct applied analyses of various kinds and to make rational agricultural policies by forecasting and analyzing agricultural population change. Unlike previous studies, which have some assumptions about the giving-up farming rate (GFR) of the key points on the agricultural population model or, After estimating only one equation with respect to the total population, and then distribute by sex and age. This study was conducted to investigate the reactions are different from the farmhouse, gender, age by estimating giving-up farming rate (GFR) equations each gender & age. Through this research, we can find that Farm Population changes of the simulation can be performed for a variety of agricultural policy in conjunction with existing agricultural simulation models as well.

Mortality Forecasting for Population Projection (장래인구추계를 위한 사망률 예측)

  • Kim, Tai-Hun
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.27-51
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.

Comparison of Exposure Estimation Methods on Air Pollution of Residents of Industrial Complexes (광양만권 주변지역 주민들의 대기오염 노출추정을 위한 방법론 비교 연구)

  • Jung, Soon-Won;Cho, Yong-Sung;Yang, Won-Ho;Yu, Seung Do;Son, Bu-Soon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.151-161
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    • 2013
  • The assessment of personal exposure is a critical component in population-based epidemiologic studies of air pollution. This study was conducted to apply and compare the four exposure estimation methods of individual-level to air pollution concentration in a cohort including 2,283 subjects in Gwangyang, Korea. Individual-level exposure of air pollution were estimated using multiple approaches, including average across all monitors, nearest monitor, and spatial interpolation by inverse distance weighting and kriging. The mean concentrations of $PM_{10}$, $NO_2$, $SO_2$, CO, $O_3$ by four exposure estimation methods were slightly different but not significantly different from each other. Cross-validation showed that kriging was more accurate than other exposure estimation methods because kriging has probably predicted individual exposure levels equivalent to residential locations after estimating the parameters of a model according to the spatial surface of air pollution concentration. These data support that spatial interpolation methods may provide better estimates than selecting the value from the nearest monitor and averaging across values from all monitors by reflecting spatial attributes of air pollution on personal level.

Association of Korean fermented cabbage kimchi consumption with an incidence of metabolic syndrome: 10-year follow-up results of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (배추김치 섭취와 대사증후군 발생률과의 관련성 : 한국인유전체역학조사사업의 10년 추적조사 결과)

  • Seo, Suk Hyeon;Hong, Jiyoun;Son, Im Huei;Han, Young Hee;Hyun, Taisun
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.569-580
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study examined the associations of Korean fermented cabbage kimchi consumption with the incidence risk of metabolic syndrome and its components in Korean adults. Methods: We used the community-based cohort data from the 2001 ~ 2012 Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES). General characteristics, food group frequencies and nutrient intakes at baseline from 3,560 healthy individuals aged 40 ~ 69 years and the incidence of metabolic syndrome and its component from 2,259 participants, after excluding the data with incomplete anthropometric and blood test, during 10-year follow-up were analyzed. The participants were classified into three groups according to their daily consumption frequency of Korean fermented cabbage kimchi: 'less than once (< 1/day)', 'once or twice (1 ~ 2/day)', and 'three times (3/day)'. Results: After controlling for potential confounders such as age, education, income, residence area, alcohol drinking and energy intake, the consumption frequencies of rice and legumes were significantly higher, and the consumption frequency of meat was significantly lower in the 3/day group compared to that of the other two groups in men and women. The average intakes of energy and most nutrients, except fat and cholesterol, were higher in the 3/day group compared to those of the other two groups in men and women. Frequent consumption of kimchi was associated with a lower incidence of metabolic syndrome in all the models (unadjusted, age-adjusted, and multivariable-adjusted models) in women. When examining the multivariable-adjusted model, the hazard ratio for metabolic syndrome was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.47 ~ 0.86) for the 3/day group compared to that of the < 1/day group in women. However, there was no significant association between kimchi consumption and the incidence of metabolic syndrome in men. Conclusion: Our results show that consumption of kimchi at every meal was significantly associated with a lower incidence of metabolic syndrome in women.