• 제목/요약/키워드: Co-integration Relationship

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Structural Shocks of the Korean Economy: A Structural VAR Approach (통화(通貨)·물가(物價)·명목임금(名目賃金)의 장단기(長短期) 동학(動學)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Jun, Sung-in
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.37-60
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    • 1992
  • This paper applies a Structural VAR approach to a 4 variable system in real GNP, M2, GNP deflator and nominal monthly earnings, disentangling 4 structural shocks, i.e., aggregate demand and supply shocks, wage pushes and various forms of regulations reinforced especially during stabilization process. Preliminary diagnostic tests confirm that the log level of each time series has at least one unit root, though the evidence is somewhat ambiguous for real GNP. One co-integration relationship is found among 4 variables, while no co-integration is found in a subsystem consisting of nomina) variables. The absence of co-integration among nominal variables strongly suggested that money is not neutral even in the long-run. The reduced form is estimated and the structural form is recovered using 6 additional identifying restrictions. Recovered structural shocks are able to capture main episodes of past 20 years, ranging from first and second oil shocks, to strong stabilization policy of early 80's and rapid wage hikes of late 80's. Overall responses of the economy to each structural shock are usually consistent with the standard Keynesian predictions, though some responses seem to be specific to Korean economic environment.

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The Nexus between Urbanization, Gross Capital Formation and Economic Growth: A Study of Saudi Arabia

  • KHAN, Uzma
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권12호
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    • pp.677-682
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    • 2020
  • To investigate the nexus between urban population, gross capital formation, and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, yearly data was collected from the World Bank for the period 1974- 2018. Basic statistics test and correlation matrix was used to investigate the causal effect among the tested parameters, followed by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationary test, co-integration analysis by Johansen test after that Vector Auto-Correction Model for both short-run and long-run and finally the Granger-Causality tests. Result of unit root test analysis shows that the urban population became stationary at I (0) level while economic growth and gross capital formation became stationary at I (1). Johansen co-integration analysis indicates that there is presence of both long-run and short-run relationship between the three variables in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The result of the VECM Model reflects that both economic growth and gross capital formation have a negative impact on urban population in the short run. According to the Granger-Causality tests, there is unidirectional causality with the urban population by both gross capital formation and economic growth. Also, the result of the Granger Causality tests show that there is unidirectional causality between economic growth and gross capital formations.

A Causality Test on Hairtail Prices among Import and Domestic Markets Using a Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) (오차수정모형을 이용한 갈치 시장가격 간의 인과관계 분석)

  • Kim, Kyu-Min;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제40권1호
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to analyze the causality of hairtail prices among import and domestic distribution channels using a Vector Error Correction Model(VECM). The results are as follows. First, since the ADF unit-root test suggests that each of the price variables, apart from retail price, has a unit root, the price variables should be 1st-differenced to secure the stability of the prices. Next, through the Johansen co-integration test, it was discovered that there are long-term relationships among the price variables. On the basis of the co-integration test, VECM analysis shows that the producer price has a long-run balance with the import and wholesale prices. In particular, when the prices deviate from the balance, the producer price dynamically adjusts to return to the long-term relationship among prices. It also indicates that the producer price has an impact on the import, wholesale, and retail prices in the short-term, and the import price has an influence on the producer and wholesale prices. In addition, the impulse response analysis demonstrates that the impulse of import and producer prices has a lasting impact on each of the prices.

Curtailment of Water use Through the Integration of Process Waste Waters at the Standard Thermal Power Plant (표준화력발전소의 발전폐수 통합을 이용한 용수 사용량 절감)

  • Mun, Gyeong-Seok;Jang, Heui-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.437-443
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    • 2006
  • The Water usage is relationship which is close with the administrative cost from industrial facility. It is not easy to reduce a water usage. This research is the optimization of the waste water quantity which process waste water integration of the standard thermal power plant in system operate time. The turbine rotates by force of the steam and it produces an electricity. Demineralization Water is manufacture purity manufacturing equipment and it is supplied in power plant channel. We knew a possibility of reducing from pure control process. When it is reduced the Back Washing time, Rinsing time of the gravity filter and the activated carbon filter. Also, It is possible even from regeneration phase in Condensate Polishing Demineralization System. In addition, There is also the water which the drain of the sampling water for watching the condition of power plant process will be able to use. Integrates these processes it will be able to reduce an annual 30,000 ton degree. The research is want to use the fundamental data for the water curtailment of the power plant.

Panel Study on the Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis in the Case of OECD 17 Countries (비정태적 패널자료를 이용한 환경 쿠즈네츠가설에 대한 실증분석 - OECD 17 개국 사례분석 -)

  • Cho, Sang-Sup;Kang, Shin-Won;Kim, Dong-Yeub
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.619-632
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to test the Kuznets Hypothesis on the relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth by using the panel data. The major results of the study can be summarized threefold as follows. First, previous studies can pose the risk of spurious regression because of the nature of non-stationery of the data used. Second, the result of the co-integration test indicates that the emission of $CO_2$ and per capita income are co-integrated. Finally, according to the results of OLS and DOLS estimation, the turning point in this study is set in far higher level of per capita income compared with those in previous studies.

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Analysis of Program Providers(PP) in Terms of Theory of Industrial Organization in Korea (국내 프로그램공급업의 산업조직론적 분석)

  • Yeo, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Young-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • 제10권5호
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    • pp.229-240
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    • 2010
  • Most of all researchs and analyses in the field of television industry of Korea were related to Cable Television SO(System Operator), but few about PP(Program Provider) from the viewpoint of Industrial Theory in Korea. However, there wasn't a comprehensive research analysis in terms of the co-relationship of the market structure, market conduct and market performance of PP. This research analyzes co-relationship and dynamics of the market structure of PP, its market conduct and market performance in a comprehensive way in Cable TV industry. Especially this paper focuses on the analysis of 1)relationship and its influence between market structure and market conduct, 2) relationship and its influence between their market conducts and market performances and 3) relationship and its influence between market structure and market performance among 40 commercial PPs in terms of the theory of Industrial Organization in Korea. This paper is delated and reported as follows in conclusion : 1)the type of horizontal integration has an effect on the price and scale in the relationship between the structure and its conduct. 2)the price has effect on the revenue and viewing rate between the conduct and performance. And high dependency of the Cable TV license fee has an effect on viewing rate and revenue per subscribers(ARPU) between the conduct and performance. 3)The horizontal integration between the structure and performance had a positive effect on viewing rate and its product differentiation has an effect on the revenue per subscribers. Net cost of the product had a negative effect on the rate of profit.

국내 연구개발투자와 경제성장간의 인과관계

  • 오세홍;임수진;손소영
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2002
  • This paper inquires into the causal relationship between R&D investment and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in Korea. We apply the method of unit-root test, co-integration test, and Hsiao version of the Granger causality test to find the evidence of bi-directional causality between R&D and GDP. However, it is interesting to observe no significant directional effect between government funded R&D and GDP while private sector funded R&D turns out to affect GDP significantly. Utilizing the previous study results on bi-directional relationship between government and private sector funded R&D, we draw the following conclusion: In order to increase GDP, government funded R&D needs to induce private sector to fund more R&D in an effective manner. In this way, government is expected to indirectly participate in the development for better economy in Korea.

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Does Technological Progress, Trade, or Financial Globalization Stimulate Income Inequality in India?

  • GIRI, Arun Kumar;PANDEY, Rajan;MOHAPATRA, Geetilaxmi
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2021
  • The main purpose of the present research is to analyze the effects of trade, financial globalization, and technological progress on income inequality in the Indian economy over the period from 1982 to 2018. For this purpose, the study uses economic growth, financial globalization, trade openness, technological development, and economic inequality variables with appropriate proxies. The study employs the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and VECM based Granger causality approach to estimate both the short-run and long-run relationship and causality among variables. Using the ARDL bounds test, the study finds a long-run co-integrating relationship existing among the variables in the model. The study confirms the existence of a positive and significant impact of technological progress on income inequality. Further, globalization's limited impact reflects two offsetting tendencies; trade globalization is associated with a reduction in income inequality, while financial globalization is related to an increase in inequality. The results of VECM based Granger causality approach further confirm that technological progress, trade, and financial globalization causes income inequality both directly and indirectly through economic growth and inflation. In case of India, the results of this research can significantly facilitate stakeholders and policymakers in devising policies towards effective globalization and technological innovation for inclusive growth.

Contribution of Tourism and Foreign Direct Investment to Gross Domestic Product: Econometric Analysis in the Case of Sri Lanka

  • MOHAMED MUSTAFA, Abdul Majeed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of the study to evaluate the contribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism receipts (TR) to Sri Lanka's gross domestic product (GDP). This study employs time series annual data for the period from 1978 to 2016 and EViews 10 econometrics software was used for the time series data analysis. Unit root test was done on the variables and the method chosen was the Augmented Dicky - Fuller test. Co-integration analysis was used for the long run relationship and the Granger causality test was performed to investigate the causal relationship. Recently a more conducive environment has been established after the three decade long ethnic war came to an end. In this context, the Sri Lankan government has taken positive measures to attract foreign direct investment and boost tourism in the country. This study intends to evaluate the contribution of Sri Lanka, as these two factors are considered to be very effective at increasing the GDP of a country. The empirical study shows that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between the variable's TR and FDI to the GDP in the long run. Results of Granger causality test implied that the two-way causality promoted the economic growth of Sri Lanka.

Are Precious Metals Hedge Against Financial and Economic Variables?: Evidence from Cointegration Tests

  • YAQOOB, Tanzeela;IQBAL, Javed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2021
  • This paper investigates the long run hedging ability of precious metals against the risks associated with adverse conditions of economic and financial variables for Pakistan, the USA, China, and India. Monthly data of gold, silver, platinum, stock returns, exchange rate, industrial production, and inflation was collected for the selected economies. Saikkonen and Lutkepohl (2002) unit root test was employed to access the unit root properties of the data series and identify the break dates. Furthermore, this study used the Johansen cointegration test with and without structural breaks to identify the long-run relationship between metals prices and different financial and economic variables. The findings suggest that the time series under study have unit root problem at level with and without structural breaks. Without considering structural breaks, the Johansen trace test indicates that in Pakistan and China, gold, silver, and platinum hold a cointegrating relationship with macroeconomic and financial variables. For the US, gold indicates cointegration which supports the hedging ability of gold against inflation, stock, and industrial production in the long run. The results of the cointegration test after incorporating the structural breaks provide even stronger evidence of the long-run relationship of precious metals and consumer prices, exchange rate, and stock prices.