• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제15권8호
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• pp.236-257
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• 2015

본 연구는 윤리적 조직풍토, 윤리적 민감성 그리고 도덕적 고충이 사회복지사의 직무만족, 소진 그리고 이직의도에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 규명하고자 시도되었다. 충남지역의 사회복지사 253명을 대상으로 실증 분석을 수행결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 사회복지사 소속기관의 윤리적 조직 풍토 인식이 직무만족도를 높이고 이직의도를 낮추지만, 소진과는 통계적으로 무의미했다. 둘째, 윤리적 민감성은 직무만족도에 긍정적 영향을 미치고 있으나 소진과 이직의도를 높이는 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, 사회복지사가 직접적인 경험으로 유발되는 도덕적 고충이 직무만족도를 저하시키고, 소진이나 이직의도를 높이는 것으로 분석되었다. 이와 같은 결과로 사회복지조직의 윤리적 조직풍토 조성을 위해서는 청렴교육과 운영자의 윤리경영의식을 높여야 한다. 또한 사회복지사의 윤리적 민감성 제고를 위한 청렴교육 및 감수성 훈련이 필요하다는 시사점을 얻었다.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.9-20
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• 2013

In this paper, the rainfall elasticity of streamflow was estimated to quantify the effects of climate change on 5 river basins. Rainfall elasticity denotes the sensitivity of annual streamflow for the variations of potential annual rainfall. This is a simple, useful method that evaluates how the balance of a water cycle on river basins changes due to long-term climate change and offers information to manage water resources and environment systems. The elasticity method was first used by Schaake in 1990 and is commonly used in the United States and Australia. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP, semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes) was used to simulate the variations of area streamflow, and potential evapotranspiration. A nonparametric method was then used to estimate the rainfall elasticity on five river basins of Korea. In addition, the A2 (SRES IPCC AR4, Special Report on Emission Scenarios IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) climate change scenario and stochastic downscaling technique were used to create a high-resolution weather change scenario in river basins, and the effects of climate change on the rainfall elasticity of each basin were then analyzed.

• 농촌계획
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.25-36
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• 2013

This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제39권11호
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• pp.923-934
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• 2006

본 연구는 SWAT모형을 이용하여 기상, 지하수 취수량, 토지이용 변화에 대한 건기 총유출량의 민감도를 제시하였으며 더 나아가 건기의 총 유출량을 추정하기 위해 건기 총강우량, 전 우기 총강우량, 평균 일 최대온도, 일평균 태양복사량과 같은 기상 변수들과 지하수 취수량 및 도시면적 비율을 이용하여 회귀식을 도출하였다. 도출된 식을 이용하여 기후변화에 대한 건기 총유출량 변화를 살펴보기 위하여 온도와 강우량의 변화에 대한 건기 총유출량의 변화율을 제시하였는데 기후변화로 인해 온도가 상승할 경우 건기의 총 유출량은 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 지하수 취수량은 총 유출량과 관계가 높은데 반해 토지이용 변화는 산간유역인 대상유역의 경우 크게 영향을 미치지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구에서 제안된 식은 기저유출에 영향을 크게 미치는 강우와 기온 및 태양복사량을 포함하는 기상상태, 지하수 취수량, 도시면적 비율을 변수로 갖는 식이므로 기후변화를 비롯한 유역의 다양한 수문학적 변화에 대해 대상유역의 미래 건기의 수자원 확보량을 예측하는데 유용하게 사용될 수 있다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.51-69
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• 2012

이 연구는 기후변화가 지자체의 식물, 동물, 보전구역 등 생태계에 미치는 취약성을 현재와 미래 시점에서 시 공간적으로 분석하는 방법론을 논의하고, 적응 능력을 높이기 위한 방안을 토의하였다. 생태계 부문의 취약성 평가는 침엽수를 중심으로 한 수목 생장과 분포의 취약성, 해충과 꿀벌을 중심으로 한 곤충의 취약성, 국립공원을 중심으로 한 보전구역 관리의 취약성으로 수행되었다. 구체화된 각 대용변수의 취약성을 평가하기 위하여 기후노출, 민감도, 적응능력의 대용변수 및 세부 대용변수를 선정하였다. 현재를 기준으로 하였을 때 침엽수의 생장과 분포의 취약성, 해충과 꿀벌의 취약성, 국립공원 관리의 취약성은 기후노출, 민감도, 적응능력 대용변수 가운데 기후노출에 가장 큰 영향을 받는다. 현재로부터 2100년까지 미래로 갈수록 침엽수의 생장과 분포의 취약성, 국립공원관리의 취약성에 대한 지역 간 격차는 커지고, 해충과 꿀벌의 취약성에 대한 지역 격차는 줄어드는 경향을 나타냈다.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.147-157
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• 2013

Rice is a main crop and rice field is the most important farmland in Korea. This study was conducted to propose the methodology assessing impact and vulnerability on rice production by climate change at the regional and national level in Korea. We evaluated a vulnerability of rice paddy according to the outbreak of a main disease and pest of a rice plant. As results, Jeju-do, Gyeongsangnam-do, and Jeollanam-do were more vulnerable area than others. In contrast, the southern central region including Gyeonggi-do was less vulnerable than others. The vulnerable index was significantly higher in 2050s (0.5589) than in present (0.3500). This result showed that the vulnerable to the disease and pest enlarge in the future. The adaptive capacity highly contributed to the vulnerability assessment index. The daily maximum temperature of June and the daily average temperature from May to August also contributed the climate exposure index. The area of occurring sheath blight, rice leaf blast and striped rice borer was related to the system sensitivity index. The ability of water supply (readjustment area of arable land per paddy field area) and rice production technique (rice yield per hectare) were the highly contributed variables to the adaption capacity index.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.22-38
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• 2012

Adaptation of climate change is necessary to avoid unexpected impacts of climate change caused by human activities. Vulnerability refers to the degree to which system cannot cope with impacts of climate change, encompassing physical, social and economic aspects. Therefore the quantification of climate change impacts and its vulnerability is needed to identify vulnerable regions and to setup the proper strategies for adaptation. In this study, climate change vulnerability is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Also, we identified regions vulnerable to ozone due to climate change in Korea using developed proxy variables of vulnerability of regional level. 18 proxy variables are selected through delphi survey to assess vulnerability over human health sector for ozone concentration change due to climate change. Also, we estimate the weighting score of proxy variables from delphi survey. The results showed that the local regions with higher vulnerability index in the sector of human health are Seoul and Daegu, whereas regions with lower one are Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Gwangju, Busan, Daejeon, and Gangwon-do. The regions of high level vulnerability are mainly caused by their high ozone exposure. We also assessed future vulnerability according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1FI, A1T, A1B, B2, and B1 scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2100s. The results showed that vulnerability increased in all scenarios due to increased ozone concentrations. Especially vulnerability index is increased by approximately 2 times in A1FI scenarios in the 2020s. This study could support regionally adjusted adaptation polices and the quantitative background of policy priority as providing the information on the regional vulnerability of ozone due to climate change in Korea.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• 제36권5호
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• pp.406-417
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• 2020

Early warning services for crop diseases are valuable when they provide timely forecasts that farmers can utilize to inform their disease management decisions. In South Korea, collaborative disease controls that utilize unmanned aerial vehicles are commonly performed for most rice paddies. However, such controls could benefit from seasonal disease early warnings with a lead time of a few months. As a first step to establish a seasonal disease early warning service using seasonal climate forecasts, we developed the EPIRICE Daily Risk Model for rice blast by extracting and modifying the core infection algorithms of the EPIRICE model. The daily risk scores generated by the EPIRICE Daily Risk Model were successfully converted into a realistic and measurable disease value through statistical analyses with 13 rice blast incidence datasets, and subsequently validated using the data from another rice blast experiment conducted in Icheon, South Korea, from 1974 to 2000. The sensitivity of the model to air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation input variables was examined, and the relative humidity resulted in the most sensitive response from the model. Overall, our results indicate that the EPIRICE Daily Risk Model can be used to produce potential disease risk predictions for the seasonal disease early warning service.

• 한국작물학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국작물학회 2000년도 추계 학술대회지
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• pp.12-27
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• 2000

During the recent decades, he problem of climate variability and change has been in the forefront of scientific problems. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of climate variability on crop growth and yield. The growth duration was the main impact of climate variability on crop yield. Phyllochronterval was shortened in the global worming situations. A simple model to describe developmental traits was provided from heading data of directly seeded rice cultivars and temperature data. Daily mean development rate could be explained by the average temperature during the growth stage. Simple regression equation between daily mean development rate(x) and the average temperature(y) during the growth period as y = ax + b. It can be simply modified as x = 1/a $\ast$ (y-b). The parameters of the model could depict the thermo sensitivity of the cultivars. On the base of this model, the three doubled CO2 GCM scenarios were assessed. The average of these would suggest a decline in rice production of about 11% if we maintained the current cultivars. Future cultivar's developmental traits could be suggested by the two model parameters.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.63-71
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• 2005

Nowadays Climate disasters are frequently happening due to occasional occurrences of EI Nino and La Nina events and among them, water shortage is one of the serious problems. To cope with this problem, climate model simulations can give very helpful information. To utilize the climate model for enhancing the water resources planning techniques, probabilistic measures of the effectiveness of global climate model (GCM) simulations of an indicator variable for discriminating high versus low regional observations of a target variable are proposed in this study. The objective of this study is to present the various analysis methods to find the suitable application methods of GCM information for Korean water resources planning. The basic formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two variables. The various methods for adopting correct association, changing the window size, discrimination condition, and the use of temporally down scaled data were proposed to find out the suitable way for Korean water resources planning.