• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate index

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Application of Artificial Neural Network Ensemble Model Considering Long-term Climate Variability: Case Study of Dam Inflow Forecasting in Han-River Basin (장기 기후 변동성을 고려한 인공신경망 앙상블 모형 적용: 한강 유역 댐 유입량 예측을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Taereem;Joo, Kyungwon;Cho, Wanhee;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2019
  • Recently, climate indices represented by quantifying atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns have been widely used to predict hydrologic variables for considering long-term climate variability. Hydrologic forecasting models based on artificial neural networks have been developed to provide accurate and stable forecasting performance. Forecasts of hydrologic variables considering climate variability can be effectively used for long-term management of water resources and environmental preservation. Therefore, identifying significant indicators for hydrologic variables and applying forecasting models still remains as a challenge. In this study, we selected representative climate indices that have significant relationships with dam inflow time series in the Han-River basin, South Korea for applying the dam inflow forecasting model. For this purpose, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) method was used to identify a significance between dam inflow and climate indices and an artificial neural network(ANN) ensemble model was applied to overcome the limitation of a single ANN model. As a result, the forecasting performances showed that the mean correlation coefficient of the five dams in the training period is 0.88, and the test period is 0.68. It can be expected to come out various applications using the relationship between hydrologic variables and climate variability in South Korea.

Estimation of Site Productivity of Pinus densiflora by the Soil Physico-chemical Properties (토양의 물리화학적 성질에 의한 소나무림 임지생산력 추정)

  • Park, Nam-Chang;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Jung, Su-Young
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.160-166
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    • 2009
  • We estimated site productivity for unstocked land based on the relationship between site index (i.e., average height of dominant trees at fixed age) and soil physico-chemical properties of Pinus densiflora stands. Site index relates to a direct method of determining a tree's response to a specific environment such as forest soil and climate conditions. We selected 78 sites in 22 P. densiflora stands of central temperate forest zone, and sampled soils for physicochemical analyzing. And 13 properties of soils were statistically treated by stepwise regression. In the degree of contribution of the variables to site index, the highly effective variables in A horizon were OM, clay content, sand content, available $P_2O_5$, and Exch. $Ca^{{+}{+}}$ inorder, and in B horizon T.N., O.M., Soil pH, cation exchange capacity(C.E.C.), and sand content in order. In both A and B horizon of the soil for P. densiflora stands, the variables commonly contributed to the site index were sand content and OM. These results may be useful to provide not only important criteria for establishment of Pinus densiflora stand sespecially in unstocked land but also aguidance for reforestation.

Retrieval of Vegetation Health Index for the Korean Peninsula Using GK2A AMI (GK2A AMI를 이용한 한반도 식생건강지수 산출)

  • Lee, Soo-Jin;Cho, Jaeil;Ryu, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Nari;Kim, Kwangjin;Sohn, Eunha;Park, Ki-Hong;Jang, Jae-Cheol;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.179-188
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    • 2022
  • Global warming causes climate change and increases extreme weather events worldwide, and the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts is also increasing in Korea. For the monitoring of extreme weather, various satellite data such as LST (Land Surface Temperature), TCI (Temperature Condition Index), NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), VCI (Vegetation Condition Index), and VHI (Vegetation Health Index) have been used. VHI, the combination of TCI and VCI, represents the vegetation stress affected by meteorological factors like precipitation and temperature and is frequently used to assess droughts under climate change. TCI and VCI require historical reference values for the LST and NDVI for each date and location. So, it is complicated to produce the VHI from the recent satellite GK2A (Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite-2A). This study examined the retrieval of VHI using GK2A AMI (Advanced Meteorological Imager) by referencing the historical data from VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) NDVI and LST as a proxy data. We found a close relationship between GK2A and VIIRS data needed for the retrieval of VHI. We produced the TCI, VCI, and VHI for GK2A during 2020-2021 at intervals of 8 days and carried out the interpretations of recent extreme weather events in Korea. GK2A VHI could express the changes in vegetation stress in 2020 due to various extreme weather events such as heatwaves (in March and June) and low temperatures (in April and July), and heavy rainfall (in August), while NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) VHI could not well represent such characteristics. The GK2A VHI presented in this study can be utilized to monitor the vegetation stress due to heatwaves and droughts if the historical reference values of LST and NDVI can be adjusted in a more statistically significant way in the future work.

Analysis of Energy Efficiency Design Index and Onboard Power Capacity for New Building Ships (신조선의 에너지효율설계지수와 선상 동력용량에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, D.C.;Millar Jr, Melchor M.;Nam, J.G.
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.843-851
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    • 2009
  • Much work has already been done to control and regulate the worldwide problems caused by climate change, particularly the issues on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Carbon dioxide ($CO_2$), having the highest form of concentration among GHGs composed around 1.0 billion tons of emission, and comprises about 98% of the total emissions from the shipping industry. Korean trade mainly rely on the sea transportation. Korean ship tonnages that was brought about by shipbuilders all over the country, continues to grow annually due to the prevailing demands on goods or material supplies and depicting only a small part of the global maritime activity. Nowadays, new build ships coming from the Korean Shipbuilders are being optimized by hull, structure and appendages design, The operational capability of the propulsion and auxiliary machineries in its maximum capacity to achieve the highest possible efficiencies for energy and onboard power use to mitigate $CO_2$ emissions are continually being done through the help of research and development. In this paper, the energy efficiency design index and anboard power capacity of Korean new build ships have been analyzed with response to data collected by ship types, and its respective fuel consumption in relation to $CO_2$ emission results. In response to climate change convention outcome proposals, the best way for the new build ships to become energy efficient is by lowering its operational speed thru adopting the state of the art diesel propulsion engines, patronizing the best sailing practice to lower the transportation cost on the different sea trade routes also helps in $CO_2$ mitigation.

Climate Change Impacts on Watershed Scale Drought Using Soil Moisture Index (토양수분가뭄지수를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 유역단위 가뭄 영향평가)

  • Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Choi, Jin-Yong;Nam, Won-Ho;Kim, Tae-Gon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.446-446
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    • 2012
  • 농업은 다른 산업과 달리 원천적으로 기후 조건과 변화에 크게 좌우되는 분야로, 기후변화로 인한 영향에 가장 민감한 분야라고 할 수 있다. 안정적이고 지속적인 작물 생산을 위해서는 기후변화가 농업수자원에 미치는 영향에 대하여 정확히 파악하고, 이로 인해 발생할 수 있는 부정적 효과를 최소화하기 위한 연구가 필요하다. 특히 기온 상승, 강수량 및 강우강도 변화, 증발산량 및 일조시간 변화 등의 기후변화는 우리나라의 가뭄 발생의 양상에도 변화를 야기하게 될 것이다. 따라서 현 상황을 바탕으로 미래에 발생할 가뭄에 대하여 예측하고, 그 취약성을 줄이기 위한 합리적인 계획이 필요하다. 즉 기후변화에 대처하기 위해서는 향후 발생할 수 있는 가뭄의 특성을 파악하여 미래 수자원 관리에 활용하기 위한 가뭄특성 분석이 필요하다. 가뭄은 기상학적 가뭄, 기후학적 가뭄, 농업적 가뭄, 대기학적 가뭄, 수문학적 가뭄, 사회경제적 가뭄 등으로 구분할 수 있는데, 일반적으로 강우량 등의 기상조건을 분석하는 방법에서부터 저수량과 유역 유출량, 그리고 토양수분 등의 수문학적 조건들로 가뭄을 분석하는 방법들까지 매우 다양하다. 가뭄의 정량화는 가뭄을 표현하는 대상의 특성에 따라 평가방법이 달라질 수 있다. 가뭄의 경향이나 그 정도를 파악하기 위해서는 하나의 가뭄 지수가 아닌 다양한 항목을 바탕으로 평가가 이루어져 한다. 현재 기후변화와 관련한 가뭄 연구에 있어서 기상학적 가뭄지수인 SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) 중심으로 많은 연구 이루어졌을 뿐, 농업적 가뭄지수를 바탕으로 한 연구는 이루어지지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 우리나라의 농업가뭄 특성을 분석하기 위하여 토양수분지수 (Soil Moisture Index)를 이용하여 중권역별 가뭄 평가하고 그 변화를 분석하였다. 본 연구를 위하여 이를 위하여 CGCM3.1 (Coupled Global Climate Model Ver. 3.1) 및 LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator)를 이용하여 2011년부터 2100년까지의 A1B, A2 및 B1 시나리오별로 기상자료를 생성하고, 이를 바탕으로 SMI 지수를 산정하여 유역별 가뭄 발생 빈도 및 심도를 시나리오별로 분석하였다. 본 연구 결과는 향후 기후변화로 인한 농업가뭄 발생의 양상 및 특성을 파악하고 전망함으로써, 추후 발생할 수 있는 부정적 효과를 최소화하기 위한 대응 전략 및 농업수자원 정책의 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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The Analysis of Status and Trends on Green Management in Korea by the Development and Application of the Evaluation Index (녹색경영평가지수 개발을 통한 우리나라 녹색경영 현황 및 변화 추이 분석)

  • Lee, Seehyung;Lee, Yoon Jung;Lee, Chanwoo;Choi, Kwang-Lim
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.231-248
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    • 2014
  • The goal of this research is to develop an evaluation method applying 'Green Management Index' introduced by Korean government to assess overall Green management level of the industrial sector. The method can help to grasp the present condition of Green management in Korea and analyze changes in trend. For this research, business types are classified into 8 categories and each evaluation method is developed according to each category. Green management evaluation was conducted in 2013, targeting 513 enterprises and the result was analyzed comparing that of 2011 to understand changes in trend. The evaluation shows that 1) 'strategy and system' section is tentatively vulnerable than other sections, 2) industry with higher sensitivity towards regulations has higher score, 3) there is a significant gap conducting green management between conglomerates and SMEs especially in 'system' section. The total score was elevated by 3 points compared to 2011. It is considered that the elevation of score was attributed to tightened regulations such as Target Management Scheme. Controlled Entities scored 4 points higher and 'GHG and environmental pollution' section increased by 10 points. Also, there is a wide disparity in green management evaluation between controlled entities and non-controlled entities from 5 points in 2011 to 10 points in 2013.

Use of various drought indices to analysis drought characteristics under climate change in the Doam watershed

  • Sayed Shajahan Sadiqi;Eun-Mi Hong;Won-Ho Nam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.178-178
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    • 2023
  • Drought and flooding have historically coexisted in Korea, occurring at different times and with varying cycles and trends. The drought indicators measured were (PDSI), (SPI), and (SPEI) in order to statistically analyze the annual or periodic drought occurrence and objectively evaluate statistical characteristics such as the periodicity, tendency, and frequency of occurrence of droughts in the Doam watershed. To compute potential evapotranspiration (PET), both Thornthwaite (Thor) and Penman-Monteith (PM) parameterizations were considered, and the differences between the two PET estimators were analyzed. Hence, SPIs 3 and SPIs 6 revealed a tendency to worsen drought in the spring and winter and a tendency to alleviate drought in the summer in the study area. The seasonal variability trend did not occur in the SPIs 12 and PDSI, as it did in the drought index over a short period. As a result of the drought trend study, the drought from winter to spring gets more severe, in addition to the duration of the drought, although the periodicity of the recurrence of the drought ranged from 3 years to 6 years at the longest, indicating that SPIs 3 showed a brief time of around 1 year. SPIs 6 and SPIs 12 had a term of 4 to 6 years, and PDSI had a period of roughly 6 years. Based on the indicators of the PDSI, SPI, and SPEI, the drought severity increases under climate change conditions with the decrease in precipitation and increased water demand as a consequence of the temperature increase. Therefore, our findings show that national and practical measures are needed for both winter and spring droughts, which happen every year, as well as large-scale and extreme droughts, which happen every six years.

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A Study on the Convergence of Renovation Measures for Urban Ecological Park Considering the Thermal Environment in Summer - With a Case of Gildong Ecological Park - (여름철 열환경을 고려한 도시생태공원 리노베이션 방안 융합 연구 - 길동생태공원을 사례로 -)

  • Kwon, Ki Uk
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.36
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2018
  • This study recent changes in urban thermal environment caused by climate change generate diverse problems such as urban heat island effects, heat wave, and drought. Under this condition, with the increased perception and expectation of the quality of life, the urban citizens' desire for outdoor activities is increasing. This study conducted the thermal environment analysis focusing on the urban ecological park used by many urban citizens, and also suggested the renovation measures for urban ecological park considering the thermal environment. As the research site, the ecologically-favorable Gildong Ecological Pak with diverse space composition was selected. The measuring items were measured and analyzed by dividing them into thermal environment index and thermal comfort index. In the results of analysis in each type of park space, the forest zone showed the most favorable result. Based on such results, total three kinds of renovation measures for urban ecological park considering the thermal environment were suggested. Through this, the urban ecology park renovation plans were presented in three ways. The results of this study are meaningful in that it can be used as a base material for creating an ecological park considering the thermal environment.

Prediction of future hydrologic variables of Asia using RCP scenario and global hydrology model (RCP 시나리오 및 전지구 수문 모형을 활용한 아시아 미래 수문인자 예측)

  • Kim, Dawun;Kim, Daeun;Kang, Seok-koo;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.551-563
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    • 2016
  • According to the 4th and 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate has been rapidly changing because of the human activities since Industrial Revolution. The perceived changes were appeared strongly in temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). Global average temperature has increased about $0.74^{\circ}C$ over last 100 years (IPCC, 2007) and concentration of $CO_2$ is unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014). These phenomena influence precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture which have an important role in hydrology, and that is the reason why there is a necessity to study climate change. In this study, Asia region was selected to simulate primary energy index from 1951 to 2100. To predict future climate change effect, Common Land Model (CLM) which is used for various fields across the world was employed. The forcing data was Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) data which is the newest greenhouse gas emission scenario published in IPCC 5th assessment. Validation of net radiation ($R_n$), sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE) for historical period was performed with 5 flux tower site-data in the region of AsiaFlux and the monthly trends of simulation results were almost equaled to observation data. The simulation results for 2006-2100 showed almost stable net radiation, slightly decreasing sensible heat flux and quite increasing latent heat flux. Especially the uptrend for RCP 8.5 has been about doubled compared to RCP 4.5 and since late 2060s, variations of net radiation and sensible heat flux would be significantly risen becoming an extreme climate condition. In a follow-up study, a simulation for energy index and hydrological index under the detailed condition will be conducted with various scenario established from this study.

Analysis of Future Trends for Refractory Dissolved Organic Carbon in the Nakdong River Basin using Elasticity Theory (탄성도 이론을 이용한 낙동강유역 난분해성 용존 유기탄소 미래 추세 분석)

  • Park, Yoonkyung;Choi, Daegyu;Lee, Jae Woon;Kang, Limseok;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.476-488
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    • 2013
  • Refractory Dissolved Organic Carbon (RDOC) is becoming more important index on management of water quality, water regulation as well as ecosystem management. We analyzed trends of RDOC using elasticity in the Nakdong river basin. If climate elasticity of streamflow is positive, change of streamflow can be defined by the proportional change in a climatic variable such as precipitation and temperature. Elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and elasticity of RDOC to precipitation were estimated in the present, and we also analyzed the variation of elasticity in the future using climate change scenarios, RCP 8.5/ 4.5. Mean streamflow elasticity is 1.655, and mean RDOC elasticity is 1.983. RDOC is more sensitive to precipitation change than streamflow. The variation of RDOC is directly proportion to precipitation in all scenarios, but the Load of RDOC is dependent on precipitation as well as others. There is a need for additional correlation analysis between RDOC and other factors for accurate prediction.