• 대기
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.69-74
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• 2005

In this short article, oceanic processes that could have strong effect on the climate have been explained while focusing on the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC). First, the structure of THC is explained using a simple scaling law. Then, the thermohaline catastrophe, which is believed to be a cause of a rapid climate changes observed in paleoclimate records, and interdecadal variations in THC are explained. The interactions between the oceans and $CO_2$ are also mentioned briefly.

• 한국관개배수논문집
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.32-44
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• 2014

In Korea, global warming caused by the climate changes impacted on weather system with increase in frequency and intensity of precipitation, and the rainfall pattern changes significantly by regional groups. Furthermore, it is expected that the regional and annual fluctuation ranges of the rainfall in the future would be more severe. Nowadays, agricultural drainage system designed by the existing standard of 20-year return period and 2 days of fixation time cannot deal with the increment rainfall such as localized heavy rain and local torrential rainfalls. Therefore, it is required to reinforce the standard of the drainage system in order to reduce the agricultural flood damage brought by unusual weather. In addition, it is needed to improve the standard of agricultural drainage design in order to cultivate farm products in paddy fields as facility vegetable cultivation and up-land field crop have been damaged by the moisture injury and flooding. In order to prepare for the changes of rainfall pattern due to climate changes and improve the agricultural drainage design standards by the increase of cultivating farm products, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of climate changes, the changes of relative design standard, and the analytic situation of agricultural flood damages, to consider the drainage design standard revision, and finally to prepare for enhanced agricultural drainage design standards.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.77-86
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• 2012

This study was aim to predict future land-cover changes and to analyze regional land-cover changes in irrigation areas and agricultural reservoir watersheds under climate change scenario. To simulate the future land-cover under climate change scenario - A1B of the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. For the study areas, 8 agricultural reservoirs were selected from 8 different provinces covering all around nation. The simulation results from 2010 to 2100 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. For Madun reservoir in Gyeonggi-do, total decrease amount of paddy area was a similar amount of 'Base demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020 published by MLTMA (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), while the decrease amounts of paddy areas in other sites were less than the amount of 'High demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020. Under A1B scenario, all the land-cover results showed only slight changes in irrigation areas of agricultural reservoirs and most of agricultural reservoir watersheds will be increased continuously for forest areas. This approach could be useful for evaluating and simulating agricultural water demand in relation to land-use changes.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.174-174
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• 2023

The impact of global warming on the south Asian summer monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. This study aims to investigate the future changes of the precipitation extremes during pre-monsoon and monsoon, across this region in a more organized regional structure. The study area is divided into six major divisions based on the Köppen-Geiger's climate structure and 10 sub-divisions considering the geographical locations. The future changes of extreme precipitation indices are analyzed for each zone separately using five indices from ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices); R10mm, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and PRCPTOT. 10 global climate model (GCM) outputs from the latest CMIP6 under four combinations of SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are used. The GCMs are bias corrected using nonparametric quantile transformation based on the smoothing spline method. The future period is divided into near future (2031-2065) and far future (2066-2100) and then the changes are compared based on the historical period (1980-2014). The analysis is carried out separately for pre-monsoon (March, April, May) and monsoon (June, July, August, September). The methodology used to compare the changes is probability distribution functions (PDF). Kernel density estimation is used to plot the PDFs. For this study we did not use a multi-model ensemble output and the changes in each extreme precipitation index are analyzed GCM wise. From the results it can be observed that the performance of the GCMs vary depending on the sub-zone as well as on the precipitation index. Final conclusions are made by removing the poor performing GCMs and by analyzing the overall changes in the PDFs of the remaining GCMs.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.295-310
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• 2016

In this study, changes in daily temperature range were investigated using daily maximum and minimum temperatures of Busan and Daegu for last 81 years (1934-2014), and also characteristics of daily temperature range and seasonal fluctuations by urbanization were examined. First, elapsing changes showed a lower decreasing trend in Busan ($0.32^{\circ}C$) than Daegu ($1.28^{\circ}C$) for last 81 years. Daily temperature range showed the highest rise in winter in both Busan and Daegu. Second, daily temperature range due to urbanization showed that Busan had a pronounced decreasing trend before urbanization meanwhile Daegu showed the same trend after urbanization. On seasonal changes, the results of Busan showed a decreasing trend in summer before urbanization, and in autumn after urbanization. For Daegu, the results showed a decreasing trend in spring before urbanization, and in winter after urbanization. Seasonal fluctuations of Busan showed little difference in the pre and post-urbanization, except in winter and summer. There was large difference in daily temperature range in winter after urbanization, and in summer before the urbanization. The results in Daegu showed that there was decreasing trend of daily temperature range in all seasons after urbanization.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 1999년도 Proceedings of International Symposium on Remote Sensing
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• pp.107-114
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• 1999

The large-scale distribution of crops Is usually determined by climate. We present the results of a climate-crop prediction based on spatial bio-physical process model approach, implemented in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment using several regional and global agriculture-environmental databases. The model utilizes daily climate data like temperature, rainfall, solar radiation being generated stocastically by in-built model weather generator to determine the daily biomass and finally the crop yield. Crops are characterized by their specific growing period requirements, photosynthesis, respiration properties and harvesting index properties. Temperature and radiation during the growing period controls the development of each crop. The model simulates geographic/spatial distribution of climate by which a crop-growing belt can also be determined. The model takes both irrigated and non-irrigated area crop productivity into account and the potential increase in productivity by the technical means like mechanization is not considered. All the management input given at the base year 1995 was kept same for the next twenty-year changes until 2015. The simulated distributions of crops under current climatic conditions coincide largely with the current agricultural or specific crop growing regions. Simulation with assumed weather generated derived climate change scenario illustrate changes in the agricultural potential. There are large regional differences in the response across the country. The north-south and east-west regions responded differently with projected climate changes with increased and decreased productivity depending upon the crops and scenarios separately. When water was limiting or facilitating as non-irrigated and irrigated area crop-production effects of temperature rise and higher $CO_2$ levels were different depending on the crops and accordingly their production. Rise in temperature led to yield reduction in case of maize and rice whereas a gain was observed for wheat crop, doubled $CO_2$ concentration enhanced yield for all crops and their several combinations behaved differently with increase or decrease in yields. Finally, with this spatial modeling approach we succeeded in quantifying the crop productivity which may bring regional disparities under the different climatic scenarios where one region may become better off and the other may go worse off.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.208-225
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• 2012

이 연구에서는 한국의 미래 기온극값의 변화를 전망하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 12.5km 고해상도의 지역기후모델(HadGEM3-RA)에서 생산된 일 최고 및 최저 기온 자료와 관측 자료를 이용하여 RCP4.5/8.5 시나리오에 따른 6개 극한기온 지수를 산출하고, 현재(1971-2000) 대비 21세기 말(2070-2099)의 공간 변화를 분석하였다. 현재 기간에 대해 모델에서 생산된 일 최고 및 최저 기온은 관측 자료의 확률분포 형태와 범위를 비교적 잘 모의한다. 현재 대비 21세기 말에 결빙일(ID)과 서리일(FD)은 전 지역에서 감소하고 여름일(SD)과 열대야(TR)는 증가할 것이며, 95퍼센타일을 초과하는 일 최고기온(TX95)과 5퍼센타일 미만 일 최저기온(TN5)의 평균값은 전 지역에서 상승할 것으로 전망된다. 이는 RCP4.5보다 RCP8.5 시나리오의 경우에 더 강하다. 고도는 ID, SD, TR, TX95, TN5와 위도는 ID, TR, TN5의 변화와 유의한 상관관계를 보인다. 21세기 말에 산지에서는 기온의 하위 극값 상승, 남해안에서는 열대야 증가로 인한 영향이 강하게 나타날 것으로 전망된다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.451-463
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• 2016

We explore the impact of Chinese future air pollutant emissions on ozone air quality in Northeast Asia (NEA) and health in South-Korea using an assessment framework including ICAMS (The Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System) and BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). The emissions data sets from the climate change scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (emission scenarios, EMSO), are used to simulate ozone air quality in NEA in the current (1996~2005, 2000s), the near future (2016~2025, 2020s) and the distant future (2046~2055, 2050s). Furthermore, the simulated ozone changes in the 2050s are used to analyze ozone-related premature mortality and economic cost in South-Korea. While different EMSOs are applied to the China region, fixed EMSO are used for other country regions to isolate the impacts of the Chinese emissions. Predicted ozone changes in NEA are distinctively affected by large changes in NOx emission over most of China region. Comparing the 2020s with the 2000s situation, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations in NEA is simulated under RCP 8.5 and similarly small increases are under other RCPs. In the 2050s in NEA, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations is simulated under RCP 6.0 and leads to the occurrence of the highest premature mortalities and economic costs in South-Korea. Whereas, the largest decrease is simulated under RCP 4.5 leads to the highest avoided premature mortality numbers and economic costs. Our results suggest that continuous reduction of NOx emissions across the China region under an assertive climate change mitigation scenario like RCP 4.5 leads to improved future ozone air quality and health benefits in the NEA countries including South-Korea.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.1-5
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• 2013

Global climate changes affect the local hydrologic cycle, and subsequently, require changes in water resource management strategies of Korea. Variations in precipitation and urbanization have adverse effects on the reasonable and efficient utilization of groundwater resources. Groundwater management strategies of Korea have been implemented based on the evaluation of "sustainable yield", which is calculated from the amount of annual recharge. However, this sustainable yield has no consideration of natural discharge and dynamic equilibrium of the groundwater system. Therefore, for the effective groundwater management strategies of the following decades, we need representative and reliable observations, and have to develop methods for the systematic analysis and interpretations of the data to draw valid information in linkage of natural and societal environmental changes.

• 한국공간정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국공간정보시스템학회 2005년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.225-229
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• 2005

The objective of this study is to evaluate snowmelt impact on watershed hydrology using climate change scenarios on Soyanggang-dam and Chungju-dam watershed. SLURP model was used for analyzing hydrological changes based on climate changes. The results (in years 2050 and 2100) of climate changes scenarios was CCCma CGCM2 of SRES suggested by IPCC and the snow cover map and snow depth was derived from NOAA/AVHRR images. The model was calibrated and verified for dam inflow data from 1998 to 2001.