• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.140-140
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• 2022

Recently an accurate quantification of streamflow under various climatological and anthropogenic factors and separation of their relative contribution remains challenging, because variation in streamflow may result in hydrological disasters. In this study, we evaluated the factors responsible for variation in streamflow in Korean watersheds, quantified separately their contribution using different Budyko-based functions, and identified hydrological breakpoint points. After detecting that the hydrological break point in 1995 and time series were divided into natural period (1966-1995), and disturbed period (1996-2014). During the natural period variation in climate tended to increase change in streamflow. However, in the disturbed period both climate variation and anthropogenic activities tended to increase streamflow variation in the watershed. Subsequently, the findings acquired from different Budyko-based functions were observed sensitive to selection of function. The variation in streamflow was observed in the response of change in climatic parameters ranging 46 to 75% (average 60%). The effects of anthropogenic activities were observed less compared to climate variation accounts 25 to 54% (average 40%). Furthermore, the relative contribution was observed to be sensitive corresponding to Budyko-based functions utilized. Moreover, relative impacts of both factors have capability to enhance uncertainty in the management of water resources. Thus, this knowledge would be essential for the implementation of water management spatial and temporal scale to reduce the risk of hydrological disasters in the watershed.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.95-104
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• 2015

To discuss whether we have credible estimations about historical surface temperature evolution since industrial revolution or not, present study investigates consistencies and differences of averaged surface air temperature since 1900 between the multiple data sources: Hadley Center Climate Research Unit (HadCRU4) surface air temperature data, ECMWF 20 Century Reanalysis data (ERA20CR), and NCEP 20 Century Reanalysis data (NCEP20CR). Averaged surface temperatures are obtained for the global, polar (90S~60S, 60N~0N), midlatitude (60S~30S, 30N~60N), tropical (30S~30N) region, separately. From the analysis, we show that: 1) spatio-temporal inhomogenity and scarcity of HadCRU4 data are not major obstacles in the reliable estimation of global surface air temperature. 2) Globally averaged temperature variability is largely contributed by those of tropical and midlatitude, which occupy more than 70% of earth surface in area. 3) Both data show consistent temperature variability in tropical region. 4) ERA20CR does not capture warm period over Arctic region in early 1900s, which is obvious feature in HadCRU4 data. Discrepancies among datasets suggest that high-level caution is needed especially in the interpretation of large Arctic warming in the early 1900s, which is often regarded as a natural variability in the Arctic region.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.22-27
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• 2006

Many aspects of climate have been observed to be increasingly volatile during the past several decades. Episodic climate change is not considered to be uncommon. However, there are substantial environmental, social, and economic impacts associated with climate variability that can be managed if the climate and its impacts are properly understood. Plants and natural communities exhibit several types of adaptive strategy to climate change. There is ample reason to relate increasingly erratic weather with a warming climate. Historic climate extremes, the adaptive mechanisms plants exhibit, and how people have (or have not) responded with strategically sound concepts and policy to facilitate a sustainable environmental ethic are reviewed with a vision of international needs and economic stability.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.109-128
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• 2020

A climate-impact projection usually consists of several stages, and the uncertainty of the projection is known to be quite large. It is necessary to assess how much each stage contributed to the uncertainty. We call an uncertainty quantification method in which relative contribution of each stage can be evaluated as uncertainty decomposition. We propose a new Bayesian model for uncertainty decomposition in climate change impact assessments. The proposed Bayesian model can incorporate uncertainty of natural variability and utilize data in control period. We provide a simple and efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm using the auxiliary variable technique. We compare the proposed method with other existing uncertainty decomposition methods by analyzing streamflow data for Yongdam Dam basin located at Geum River in South Korea.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.81-99
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• 2004

Long term streamflow regime under virtual climate change scenario was examined. Rainfall forecast simulation of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) of the Canadian Climate Center for modeling and analysis for the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used for analysis. The B2 scenario envisions slower population growth (10.4 billion by 2010) with a more rapidly evolving economy and more emphasis on environmental protection. The relatively large scale of GCM hinders the accurate computation of the important streamflow characteristics such as the peak flow rate and lag time, etc. The GCM rainfall with more than 100km scale was downscaled to 2km-scale using the space-time stochastic random cascade model. The HEC-HMS was used for distributed hydrologic model which can take the grid rainfall as input data. The result illustrates that the annual variation of the total runoff and the peak flow can be much greater than rainfall variation, which means actual impact of rainfall variation for the available water resources can be much greater than the extent of the rainfall variation.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.477-484
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• 2016

In general, $CH_4$ concentrations generated in combustion facilities are known to be ppm units. In most cases, $CH_4$ samples are collected in Tedlar bags and transported to laboratories for analysis. Considering this fact, in the present study, an attempt was made to find out how long samples can be stored in cases where they are kept in bags and transported as a preliminary study for sampling. According to the results of the experiment using simulated gases (1 ppm, 5 ppm, 10 ppm) in Tedlar bag, $CH_4$ was safe up to 240 hr which is the full time. In the case of simulated gases are containing 4 kind gases ($N_2$, $CO_2$, $CH_4$, and $N_2O$). Field samples (samples of obtained by collecting combustion facilities' exhaust gases) are known to contain highly reactive substances (for example NOx, SOx, and VOCs) and may affect each other. In the present study, one site sample was secured from each of a bituminous coal combustion facility and an LNG combustion facility and whether the concentrations of $CH_4$ gas would change over time (24 hr, 96 hr, 144 hr, 192 hr) was checked. Since site samples could not be analyzed on the day of collection, an experiment was started 24 hr after the time point of sampling to analyze the samples. As with the results of analysis of the simulated gas (240 hr), the results of analysis using the site sample indicated that it could be stored for the full study period 192 hr. Therefore, it was judged that if 192 hr would be taken after sampling before the sample would be analyzed, the concentration value should be reliable.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.171-175
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• 2017

The purpose of the farmstead-specific early warning service system for weather risk management is to develop custom-made risk management recommendations for individual farms threatened by climate change and its variability. This system quantifies weather conditions into a "weather risk index" that is customized to crop and its growth stage. When the risk reaches the stage where it can cause any damage to the crops, the system is activated and the corresponding warning messages are delivered to the farmer's mobile phone. The messages are sent with proper recommendations that farmers can utilize to protect their crops against potential damage. Currently, the technology necessary to make the warning system more practical has been developed, including technology for forecasting real-time weather conditions, scaling down of weather data to the individual farm level and risk assessments of specific crops. Furthermore, the scientific know-how has already been integrated into a web-based warning system (http://new.agmet.kr). The system is provided to volunteer farmers with direct, one-on-one weather data and disaster warnings along with relevant recommendations. In 2016, an operational system was established in a rural catchment ($1,500km^2$) in the Seomjin river basin.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.290-297
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• 2015

This paper presents the evaluation of the impact of climate change on water resources and yield capacity of Asa and Kampe reservoirs. Trend analysis of mean temperature, runoff, rainfall and evapotranspiration was carried out using Mann Kendall and Sen's slope, while runoff was modeled as a function of temperature, rainfall and evapotranspiration using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Rainfall and runoff exhibited positive trends at the two dam sites and their upstream while forecasted ten-year runoff displayed increasing positive trend which indicates high reservoir inflow. The reservoir yield capacity estimated with the ANN forecasted runoff was higher by about 38% and 17% compared to that obtained with historical runoff at Asa and Kampe respectively. This is an indication that there is tendency for water resources of the reservoir to increase and thus more water will be available for water supply and irrigation to ensure food security.

• Atmosphere
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.435-444
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• 2017

By analyzing Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) from May to September for 1951~2007, this study investigates impacts of two dominant boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) modes on precipitation over Monsoon Asia including Korea and long-term change of 10~20-day and 30~60-day ISO over Korea. It is shown that BSISO strongly modulates rainfall variability over the many part of Monsoon Asia including Korea. Korea tends to have more (less) rainfall during the phases 3~5 (7~8) of BSISO1 representing the canonical northward/northeastward propagating 30~60-day ISO and during the phases 6~8 (3~5) of BSISO2 representing the northward/northwestward propagating 10~20-day ISO. It is found that the 10~20-day ISO variability contributes to summer mean rainfall variability more than 30~60-day ISO over Korea. For the 57 years of 1951~2007, the correlation coefficient between the May to September mean precipitation anomaly and standard deviation of 10~20-day (30~60-day) ISO is 0.71 (0.46). It is further noted that there is a significant increasing trend in the 10~20-day and 30~60-day ISO variability in the rainy season during the period of 1951 to 2007.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.355-355
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• 2018

Natural hydrology systems, including high flow and low flow events, are important for aquatic ecosystem health and are essential for controlling the structure and function of ecological processes in river ecosystems. Ecosystem responses to flow changes have been studied in a variety of ways, but little attention has been given to how episodic typhoons and atmospheric circulation patterns can change these hydrologic regime-ecological response relationships. In this diagnostic study, we use an empirical approach to investigate the salient features of interactions between atmospheric circulation, climate, and runoff in the five major Korean river basins.