• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2014

본 논문은 다항 로짓, 순서형 로짓모형을 이용하여 기후변화에 대한 농업인의 인지도에 어떠한 변수가 영향을 미치는가에 관한 요인분석을 하였다. 주요 분석 결과로는 첫째, 농업인의 85.7%는 기후변화를 인지하는 것으로 나타났으며, 85.8%는 향후 10년 이내에 농업에서 기후변화에 대한 영향이 나타날 것으로 예상하고 있었다. 둘째, 지난 20년 동안 기후변화로 인한 기온, 강수량, 병해충 발생 횟수, 이상기상의 횟수가 증가했다고 응답한 농업인이 80% 이상으로 나타나, 농업인 대부분이 기후변화를 깊이 체감하고 있는 것으로 판단된다. 셋째, 영농경력이 길수록, 학력이 높을수록, 영농승계자가 있으며, 컴퓨터를 사용하는 농업인일수록 기후변화가 농업에 본격적으로 영향을 미치는데, 소요되는 기간은 길어질 것으로 예상하였다. 넷째, 농업인의 가족 수가 많을수록, 학력이 높을수록 평균온도의 상승에 대하여 더 민감하게 인지하는 것으로 나타났다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.201-211
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• 2008

According to IPCC fourth assessment report in 2007, global mean temperatures have risen by 0.74 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years. Moreover, in the recent 25 years, global mean temperatures have risen by 0.45 degrees Celsius, which is 2.4-times larger than those in the past 100 years. The evidences for climate change, such as sea level rise, arctic glacier melt, and desertification in Asia, have occurred and increased over the globe. In Korea, because regional climate has been changed, types of agriculture and fishery should be replaced. And as precipitation pattern behave differently from the past decades, water management would be more difficult, furthermore, atmospheric environment, related to concentrations for ozone, sulfate, etc., could be worse. Nevertheless, we have only focused on greenhouse gas reduction duty for the Convention of Climate Change. Fortunately, in the fourth plan on climate change, we have planned to manage climate change more actively since 2007. In Korea, the emission of carbon dioxide has increased about 1.9-times more, from 311million ton in 1990 to 591million ton in 2004. And also about 2 ppm rise every year for concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As a result, ecosystem, quality of water and atmosphere would be affected. Here, the emission of greenhouse gases over the globe is examined, and the effect of greenhouse gases for climate change is reviewed from the results of previous studies. In addition, the countermeasures of mitigation and adaptation on climate change were discussed for the understanding.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.281-294
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• 2017

Tropical forests constitute almost half of the global forest cover, account for 35% of the global net primary productivity and thereby have potential to contribute substantially to sequester atmospheric $CO_2$ and offset climate change impact. However, deforestation and degradation lead by unsustainable management of tropical forests contribute to the unprecedented species losses and limit ecosystem services including carbon sequestration. Sustainable forest management (SFM) in the tropics may tackle and rectify such deleterious impacts of anthropogenic disturbances and climatic changes. However, the existing dilemma on the definition of SFM and lack of understanding of how tropical forest sustainability can be achieved lead to increasing debate on whether climate change mitigation initiatives would be successful. We reviewed the available literature with a view to clarify the concept of sustainability and provide with a framework towards the sustainability of tropical forests for enhanced carbon stock and climate change mitigation. We argue that along with securing forest tenure and thereby reducing deforestation, application of reduced impact logging (RIL) and appropriate silvicultural system can enhance tropical forest carbon stock and help mitigate climate change.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.109-116
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• 2013

By IPCC climate change scenario, the socioeconomic actions such as the land use change are closely associated with the climate change as an up zoning action of urban development to increase green gas emission to atmosphere. Prediction of the land use change with rational quality can provide better data for understanding of the climate change in future. This study aims to predict land use change of Cheongju in future and SLEUTH model is used to anticipate with the status quo condition, in which the pattern of land use change in future follows the chronical tendency of land use change during last 25 years. From 40 years prediction since 2000 year, the area urbanized compared with 2000 year increases up to 87.8% in 2040 year. The ratios of the area urbanized from agricultural area and natural area in 2040 are decreased to 53.1% and 15.3%, respectively.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제36권
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• pp.9-16
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• 2016

In the face of increasing impact of climate change due to human activities, there has been an urgent need to resolve the problem in water resources planning management and environmental engineering. Therefore SWAT model was used to identify the impacts and change in hydrological cycle and environmental aspect. The most important step for the development of SWAT model is calibration procedure. Therefore, SWAT-CUP automatic calibration module was used to find some optimal parameters in SWAT model. After calibration in the cheongmicheon basin, SWAT model is used for the projected precipitation and temperature of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios in AR5. The quantity and quality using SWAT model from 2014 to 2100 were identified. Finally, this study can provide the reasonable finding on impact by climate change.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.109-128
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• 2020

A climate-impact projection usually consists of several stages, and the uncertainty of the projection is known to be quite large. It is necessary to assess how much each stage contributed to the uncertainty. We call an uncertainty quantification method in which relative contribution of each stage can be evaluated as uncertainty decomposition. We propose a new Bayesian model for uncertainty decomposition in climate change impact assessments. The proposed Bayesian model can incorporate uncertainty of natural variability and utilize data in control period. We provide a simple and efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm using the auxiliary variable technique. We compare the proposed method with other existing uncertainty decomposition methods by analyzing streamflow data for Yongdam Dam basin located at Geum River in South Korea.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2015

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5, is the most recent, provides projections of future climate change using various global climate models under four major greenhouse gas emission scenarios. There is a wide selection of climate models available to provide projections of future climate change. These provide for a wide range of possible outcomes when trying to inform managers about possible climate changes. Hence, future agrometeorological indicators estimation will be much impacted by which global climate model and climate change scenarios are used. Decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but the uncertainties associated with global climate models pose substantial hurdles for agricultural resources planning. Although it is the most reasonable that quantifying of the future uncertainty using climate change scenarios, preliminary analysis using reasonable factors for selecting a subset for decision making are needed. In order to narrow the projections to a handful of models that could be used in a climate change impact study, we could provide effective information for selecting climate model and scenarios for climate change impact assessment using maximum/minimum temperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and moisture index of nine Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.106-117
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• 2012

In an effort to analyze the impact of climate change, Gangwon provincial forest was divided into three sectors; forest ecology, forest disaster, and forest productivity and analysis of their current status from 2000 to 2009 and vulnerability assessment by climate change has been carried in this study. In case of vulnerability assessment, except for the forest ecology, forest disaster (forest fires and forest pests) and forest productivity sectors were analyzed in current status, the year of 2020, and 2050. It turned out that vulnerability of forest fires in the field of disaster would become worse and forest pests also would make more impact even though there is some variation in different areas. In case of the vulnerability of forest productivity there would be not a big difference in the future compared with current vulnerability. Systematic research on the sensitivity index used for vulnerability assessment is necessary since vulnerability assessment result greatly depends on the use of climate exposure index and adaptive capacity index.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.106-116
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• 2022

다자개발은행들은 기후변화 대응에 적극적으로 동참하고 있으며, 기존 환경·사회 영향평가에서 한발자국 더 나아가 저탄소 기후금융(Climate Finance) 제공을 위한 공동의 기후금융 평가방안(Common Principles for Climate Finance Tracking)을 마련하여 운용하고 있다. 이들은 보수적인 시각에서 전체 사업 중 기후변화 적응 또는 저감으로 인정할 수 있는 부분을 단위화하여 평가하고 있으며, 그 결과를 취합하여 2012년부터 2021년도까지 총 10회에 걸쳐 기후금융 보고서를 발간하였다. 기후금융으로 판단하는 방법은 저감인지 적응인지에 따라서 다소 상이하다. 기후변화 적응 금융의 경우에는 사업의 맥락, 전후사정을 살펴 적응 금융으로 산정하며, 저감 금융의 경우에는 적용이 가능한 사업에 대한 포괄적인 리스트가 마련되어 이에 해당하는 경우 저감 금융으로 인정한다. 다자개발은행은 기후금융 평가 내용을 환경·사회 영향평가 결과와 함께 사업 심사의 주요 항목으로 활용하고 있다. 세계 각국이 사업 수준에서 기후변화를 다루기 위한 다양한 노력을 기울이고 있는 상황에서, 다자개발은행이 사업 승인 시 기후변화를 어떻게 고려하고 있는지 살펴보고 그 시사점에 대해서 고찰해 보는 것은 향후 기후변화 대응 방법론 마련 및 관련한 환경·사회 영향평가의 역할 확대에 도움이 될 것이라고 생각한다.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.123-125
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• 2013

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ocean warming and acidification are accelerating as a result of the continuous increase in atmospheric $CO_2$. This may affect the function and structure of marine ecosystems. Recently, changes in marine environments/ecosystems have been observed (increase in SST, decrease in the pH of seawater, northward expansion of subtropical species, etc.) in Korean waters. However, we still don't understand well how climate change affects these changes and what can be expected in the future. In order to answer these questions with regard to Korean waters, the project named 'Assessment of the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems in the South Sea of Korea' has been supported for 5 years by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and is scheduled to end in 2013. This project should provide valuable information on the current status of marine environments/ecosystems in the South Sea of Korea and help establish the methodology and observation/prediction systems to better understand and predict the impact of climate/marine environment changes on the structure and function of marine ecosystems. This special issue contains 5 research and a review articles that highlight the studies carried out during 2012-2013 through this project.