• Title/Summary/Keyword: Choice Modeling

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Probabilistic Reliability Based HVDC Expansion Planning of Power System Including Wind Turbine Generators (풍력발전기를 포함하는 전력계통에서의 신뢰도 기반 HVDC 확충계획)

  • Oh, Ungjin;Lee, Yeonchan;Choi, Jaeseok;Yoon, Yongbeum;Kim, Chan-Ki;Lim, Jintaek
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.67 no.1
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    • pp.8-15
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    • 2018
  • New methodology for probabilistic reliability based grid expansion planning of HVDC in power system including Wind Turbine Generators(WTG) is developed in this paper. This problem is focused on scenario based optimal selection technique to decide best connection bus of new transmission lines of HVDC in view point of adequacy reliability in power system including WTG. This requires two kinds of modeling and simulation for reliability evaluation. One is how is reliability evaluation model and simulation of WTG. Another is to develop a failure model of HVDC. First, reliability evaluation of power system including WTG needs multi-state simulation methodology because of intermittent characteristics of wind speed and nonlinear generation curve of WTG. Reliability methodology of power system including WTG has already been developed with considering multi-state simulation over the years in the world. The multi-state model already developed by authors is used for WTG reliability simulation in this study. Second, the power system including HVDC includes AC/DC converter and DC/AC inverter substation. The substation is composed of a lot of thyristor devices, in which devices have possibility of failure occurrence in potential. Failure model of AC/DC converter and DC/AC inverter substation in order to simulate HVDC reliability is newly proposed in this paper. Furthermore, this problem should be formulated in hierarchical level II(HLII) reliability evaluation because of best bus choice problem for connecting new HVDC and transmission lines consideration. HLII reliability simulation technique is not simple but difficult and complex. CmRel program, which is adequacy reliability evaluation program developed by authors, is extended and developed for this study. Using proposed method, new HVDC connected bus point is able to be decided at best reliability level successfully. Methodology proposed in this paper is applied to small sized model power system.

A Study on Evaluation of the Priority Orders for the Establishment of Maritime Courts Using Maritime Casualties Counts Based on Integrated ELECTRE-CRITIC-ISM (통합 ELECTRE-CRITIC-ISM법 기반 해양사고 발생건수를 이용한 해사법원 설치 우선순위 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Woon-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.624-633
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    • 2020
  • In those day, Incheon and Busan local government are arguing about establishment of a maritime court. This study aims to develop a model that evaluates the priority orders for the establishment of maritime courts using maritime casualties counts based on the integrated ELECTRE-CRITIC-ISM technique, as well as to verify its usefulness in the establishment of maritime courts in Korea. For this purpose, a total of 22 ports, excluding nine ports where maritime accident data were integrated and managed among the 31 international trade ports, were matched with the jurisdiction of six alternative high courts. Second, the CRITIC method was used to calculate the weights of the number of maritime casualties during a 5-year period that were evaluation factors and combine with the ELECTRE method. Finally, the ELECTRE&ISM method was used to analyze the concordance and discordance between high courts and evaluate the priority orders considering the fluctuations of maritime casualties counts. As the final evaluation result considering the mean values in fluctuations of maritime casualties counts, the Busan High Court ranked first, the Gwangju high court second, the Seoul high court third, the Daejeon and the Daegu high court forth (equal), and the Suwon high court sith. Therefore, it is necessary to preferentially establish a maritime court in the jurisdiction of the Busan High Court.

Hybrid (refrctive/diffractive) lens design for the ultra-compact camera module (초소형 영상 전송 모듈용 DOE(Diffractive optical element)렌즈의 설계 및 평가)

  • Lee, Hwan-Seon;Rim, Cheon-Seog;Jo, jae-Heung;Chang, Soo;Lim, Hyun-Kyu
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.240-249
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    • 2001
  • A high speed ultra-compact lens with a diffractive optical element (DOE) is designed, which can be applied to mobile communication devices such as IMT2000, PDA, notebook computer, etc. The designed hybrid lens has sufficiently high performance of less than f/2.2, compact size of 3.3 mm (1st surf. to image), and wide field angle of more than 30 deg. compared with the specifications of a single lens. By proper choice of the aspheric and DOE surface which has very large negative dispersion, we can correct chromatic and high order aberrations through the optimization technique. From Seidel third order aberration theory and Sweatt modeling, the initial data and surface configurations, that is, the combination condition of the DOE and the aspherical surface are obtained. However, due to the consideration of diffraction efficiency of a DOE, we can choose only four cases as the optimization input, and present the best solution after evaluating and comparing those four cases. On the other hand, we also report dramatic improvement in optical performance by inserting another refractive lens (so-called, field flattener), that keeps the refractive power of an original DOE lens and makes the petzval sum zero in the original DOE lens system. ystem.

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Investigation of Learning Progression for Dissolution and Solution Concepts (용해와 용액 개념에 대한 학습발달과정 조사)

  • Noh, Taehee;Lee, Jaewon;Yang, Chanho;Kang, Sukjin;Kang, Hunsik
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.295-302
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we investigated a learning progression focusing on $5^{th}$ to $9^{th}$ graders' performances with dissolution and solution concepts using the construct modeling approach. We designed a construct map describing hypothetical pathways of the concept development of dissolution and solution by analyzing both National Science Curricula and related studies. A conceptions test consisting of ordered multiple-choice items was developed and administered to 826 students. A revised construct map was derived from analyses of the results based on the partial credit model, a branch of polytomous item response theory. The sequence of dissolution and solution concepts presented in the current science curriculum was found to correspond with the learning progression of the students. However, the lower anchor, the concept of the homogeneity of particles in solution, and the factors affecting solubility were not consistent with the expected levels of the construct map. After revising the construct map, we proposed a learning progression for dissolution and solution concepts with five levels: Students of level 1 (the lower anchor) recognize the particles in the solution but misunderstand various concepts; Students of level 2 understand the homogeneity of particles in solution; Students of level 3 understand solubility and the conservation of particles during dissolution; Students of level 4 partially understand the interaction between particles; and Students of level 5 (the upper anchor) understand the interaction between particles and the factors affecting solubility.

Research on Basic Investigation and Analysis for Iand Substitution Planing using High-resolution Satellite Imagery (환지계획 수립시 고해상 위성영상을 이용한 기초조사 및 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Seung Pil;Jeong, Cheol Ju;Yeu, Yeon
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2013
  • Various data like digital maps(1/1,000 or 1/5,000), field surveying, online materials and literatures are used for the preliminary investigation for urban development such as the feasibility evaluation, the profitability analysis, the zoning proposal, the zoning designation, and the land replotting planning. There are a couple of urban development methods like an expropriation, a replotting, a mixed-used method. The replotting method requires the consideration of land replotting types based on topography and building condition, which is not easy to gather data for the preliminary investigation maintaining the security of development planning. There are limitations of a preliminary investigation using aerial photos to detect topographic and building changes at specific period. GIS data combined with high-resolution imagery has advantages over the current dataset, which come from easy acquisition of various spatial resolution satellite images, wide swath coverage, the choice of imagery resolution satisfying a usage purpose, economic benefit comparing to aerial photos, and the calculation of distance and area on imagery from image modeling. For these reasons, the proposed method in this study enables to perform the more appropriate preliminary investigation using more accurate information.

Impact of Emissions from Major Point Sources in Chungcheongnam-do on Surface Fine Particulate Matter Concentration in the Surrounding Area (충남지역 대형 점오염원이 주변지역 초미세먼지 농도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Soontae;Kim, Okgil;Kim, Byeong-Uk;Kim, Hyun Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.159-173
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    • 2017
  • The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) - Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) system was applied to investigate the influence of major point sources located in Chungcheongnam-do (CN) on surface $PM_{2.5}$ (Particulate Matter of which diameter is $2.5{\mu}m$ or less) concentrations in its surrounding areas. Uncertainties associated with contribution estimations were examined through cross-comparison of modeling results using various combinations of model inputs and setups; two meteorological datasets developed with WRF for 2010 and 2014, and two domestic emission inventories for 2010 and 2013 were used to estimate contributions of major point sources in CN. The results show that contributions of major point sources in CN to annual $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations over Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi, and CN ranged $0.51{\sim}1.63{\mu}g/m^3$, $0.71{\sim}1.62{\mu}g/m^3$, $0.63{\sim}1.66{\mu}g/m^3$, and $1.04{\sim}1.86{\mu}g/m^3$, respectively, depending on meteorology and emission inventory choice. It indicates that the contributions over the surrounding areas can be affected by model inputs significantly. Nitrate was the most dominant $PM_{2.5}$ component that was increased by major point sources in CN followed by sulfate, ammonium, and others. Based on the model simulations, it was estimated that primary $PM_{2.5}$ $(PPM)-to-PM_{2.5}$ conversion rates were 41.3~50.7 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for CN, and 12.4~18.3 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi, respectively. In addition, spatial gradients of PPM contributions show very steep trends. $NO_X$-to-nitrate conversion rates were 7.61~12.3 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for CN, and 3.94~11.3 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for the sub-regions in the SMA. $SO_2$-to-sulfate conversion rates were 4.04~5.28 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for CN, and 3.73~4.43 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for the SMA, respectively.

Performance of a Closed-Loop Power Control Using a Variable Step-size Control Scheme in a DS/CDMA LEO Mobile Satellite System (DS/CDMA 저궤도 이동 위성 시스템에서 가변 스텝사이즈 조절 방식 폐루프 전력제어의 성능분석)

  • 전동근;이연우;홍선표
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2000
  • In this paper the performance of a closed-loop power control scheme using variable step size decision method for DS/CDMA based-low earth orbit(LEO) mobile satellite systems in which the long round trip delay is a dominant performance degradation factor is evaluated. Because there are fundamental differences in the characteristics between the LEO mobile satellite channel and terrestrial mobile channel, such as long round trip delay and different elevation angle, these factors are considered in channel modeling based on the European Space Agency(ESA) measurement data. Since the round trip delay (from the mobile terminal to the gateway station via satellite) is typically 10∼20ms in low altitude satellite channels, closed-loop power control is much less effective than it is on a terrestrial channel. Thus, the adaptive power control scheme using a variable step size control is essential for overcoming the long round trip delay and fading due to the elevation angle. It is shown that the standard deviation of signal to interference ratio(SIR) adopting a variable step size closed-loop power control scheme is much less than that of a fixed step size closed-loop power control. Furthermore, we have driven the conclusion that the measurement interval of power control commands is optimal choice when it is twice the round trip delay.

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An Analysis of Job Selection, Major-Job Match and Wage Level of College Graduates (대학 졸업생의 직업선택과 임금 수준)

  • Park, Jae-Min
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.22-39
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    • 2011
  • This study examines the wage level from a viewpoint of major-job match as part of an analysis on the skill mismatch problem in 4-year college graduates. The empirical analysis explicitly incorporate the sample selection bias as an econometric problem not only suggested but merely introduced in the earlier studies. This study also set up a major-job match variable, which was usually handled as a binary variable for analytical convenience, as a polychotomous choice variable in selection equation as provided by the survey. In particular, it considered multi-cohort survey on graduates of the years 1982, 1992, and 2002 for the empirical analysis. As a result of empirical analysis, the wage premium of a major-job match was identified. This result was consistent after the consideration of a sample selection bias and also after modeling the major-job match variable as polychotomously selective. Through an analysis classified by the major, this study identified a relatively high wage premium among Social Science, Engineering, and Science majors. However, there was a difference in the effect of selection among these majors. Also, by assessing cohort effects this study found that the skill mismatch had rapidly progressed in 1992, while difference between 1992 and 2002 cohorts are insignificant. The analysis suggests that wage level is better understood within the context of both sample selection and major-job match, and regardless of model specification the major-job match affects wage strongly.

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Network Effects and Dynamic Capabilities (네트워크 효과와 동태적 경쟁역량)

  • Lee, Jong-Seok
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.183-206
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    • 2006
  • Recently, the notion of "increasing returns" has been popular not only in academia but also in industries. This notion has been drawn from prior research on network effects, which showed that the market evolution would lock in to a dominant technology. However, the long history of technological change has rarely shown the possibility of lock-in to an inferior technology. How could the market with network effects make transition between incompatible technologies regimes by escaping the lock-in? This paper analyzes the effectiveness of R&D and technological choice to investigate the sources of the dynamic capabilities in the presence of network effects and uncertain technological progress. Why does the market sometimes work against a radical technology, and why, at other times, does the market operate in favor of it? This study is to address this question by modeling the situation of two competing technologies in the presence of network effects. The numerical analysis indicates that the evolution strategy of compatibility is more likely to increase the chance of firm growth when a majority of customers are not power users or when demand for an old technology has been escalated. But when there are a substantial number of power users or when a new technology emerges before such an escalation of demand, the revolution strategy of compelling performance is more likely to be effective. The result suggests a potential mechanism for overcoming the lock-in problem. When the market exhibits some inertia to an obsolete technology, which is reinforced by the increasing customer value with respect to backward compatibility, the survival of a new technology depends on power users. When many power users are cultivated by firms' technological efforts regarding the new technology, the market is less likely to lock into an obsolete technology. Indeed, in the workstation market, where power users characterize much of the demand, innovators like Sun successfully switched to the RISC architecture.

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A Research Program for Modeling Strategic Aspects of International Container Port Competition

  • Anderson, Christopher M.;Luo, Meifeng;Chang, Young-Tae;Lee, Tae-Woo;Grigalunas, Thomas A.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Port Economic Association Conference
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    • 2006.08a
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2006
  • As national economies globalize, demand for intercontinental container shipping services is growing rapidly, providing a potential economic boon for the countries and communities that provide port services. On the promise of profits, many governments are investing heavily in port infrastructure, leading to a possible glut in port capacity, driving down prices for port services and eliminating profits as ports compete for business. Further, existing ports are making strategic investments to protect their market share, increasing the chance new ports will be overcapitalized and unprofitable. Governments and port researchers need a tool for understanding how local competition in their region will affect demand for port services at their location, and thus better assess the profitability of a prospective port. We propose to develop such a tool by extending our existing simulation model of global container traffic to incorporate demand-side shipper preferences and supply-side strategic responses by incumbent ports to changes in the global port network, including building new ports, scaling up existing ports, and unexpected port closures. We will estimate shipper preferences over routes, port attributes and port services based on US and international shipping data, and redesign the simulation model to maximize the shipper's revealed preference functions rather than simply minimize costs. As demand shifts, competing ports will adjust their pricing (short term) and infrastructure (long term) to remain competitive or defend market share, a reaction we will capture with a game theoretic model of local monopoly that will predict changes in port characteristics. The model's hypotheses will be tested in a controlled laboratory experiment tailored to local port competition in Asia, which will also serve to demonstrate the subtle game theoretic concepts of imperfect competition to a policy and industry audience. We will apply the simulation model to analyze changes in global container traffic in three scenarios: addition of a new large port in the US, extended closure of an existing large port in the US, and cooperative and competitive port infrastructure development among Korean partner countries in Asia.

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