• Title/Summary/Keyword: Change-point model

Search Result 742, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Chain Length Effect on the Configurational Properties of an n-Alkane Chain in Solution

  • Jeon, Seung-Ho;Ree, Tai-Kyue;Oh, In-Joon
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
    • /
    • v.7 no.5
    • /
    • pp.367-371
    • /
    • 1986
  • Dynamic and equilibrium properties of n-alkane chains immersed in solvent molecules have been investigated by a molecular dynamics method. The n-alkane chain is assumed to be a chain of elements (CH$_2$) interconnected by bonds having a fixed bond length and bond angle, but each bond of the chain is allowed to execute hindered internal rotation. We studied the effect of the number of the chain elements (N$_c$ = 10, 15 and 20) on the equilibrium properties of the system, e.g., the pair correlation functions between a chain element and solvent molecules, g$_{cs}$(r), and between the chain elements, g$_{cc}$(r), and the configurational properties such as the mean-square end-to-end distance < R$^2$ >, the mean-square radius of gyration < S$^2$ >, and the eigenvalues of the moment-of-inertia tensor < S$_i^2$ > / < S$^2$ > (i = 1, 2 and 3). We also studied the dynamic properties of the system, e.g., the autocorrelation function C(A;t) where A = R$^2$(t), = S$^2$(t), or = ${\vec{V}}(t)({\vec{V}}$ = velocity of the center of mass), and the diffusion coefficient D. The g$_{cs}$(r)'s are almost equal irrespective of the change of Nc while g$_{cc}$(r) becomes larger as N$_c$ increases; The MD computed configurational properties < R$^2$2 > and < S$^2$ > were found to be a little different from the values calculated from the statistical equations of < R$^2$ > and < S$^2$ >, it may be due to the fact that our model for the MD simulations includes a long-range volume effect. From the < S$_i^2$ > / < S$^2$ >, it is found that the chain molecule has a nearly spherical shape irrespective of the variation of N$_c$. For the dynamic properties we found that the C(R$^2$;t) and C(S$^2$;t) of lower N$_c$ decay faster than those of higher N$_c$, while the C($\vec V$;t) of the center of mass in the chain is weakly dependent on the N$_c$. The center of mass diffusion coefficient D$_c$ decreases as N$_c$ increases while the end point diffusion coefficient D$_e$ is nearly equal irrespective of the change of N$_c$.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.33-49
    • /
    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

A Comparative Study on Travelers' Online Travel Agency(OTA) selection attributes and revisit selection attributes (여행자의 온라인여행사(OTA) 선택속성과 재방문 시 선택속성에 관한 비교연구)

  • Yang, Chan-Yeol
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.37 no.4
    • /
    • pp.175-193
    • /
    • 2018
  • As a new type of business model in the market competition situation of tour companies, this study has developed to the online form of the travel industry to the business form which is the combination of the electronic commerce function and the mobile service process in the provision of the simple web-site, This study explores the difficulties of change for the development of the travel industry from the point of view that recognition is not a simple marketing strategy diversification means but a change of recognition as a business model for expanding new markets or creating new markets. The factors affecting the choice of online travel agent (OTA) and the factors that influence the choice of online travel agency were analyzed. Were used for the empirical survey. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the choice of online travel agents who have experience with or experience using online travel agency (OTA), what factors are important to them, and how they differ in importance when visiting again. The results of this study are as follows: First, there was a significant difference between the first and second visitors of online travel agencies. The results of this study were as follows: Attitude toward resolving complaints, convenience of change and cancellation, delivery of tickets and documents, convenience of complaints, The emphasis should be on establishing and strengthening service environments such as the speed of updating the latest information, the simplicity of the booking procedure, the degree of satisfaction of the past, the ability of employees to handle their work, the safety of various payment methods and settlement, The results of this study are as follows: First, the satisfaction of the online travel agency is influenced by the selection factors of the selected online tour agency, and the A/S such as the convenience of prompt delivery, Environmental factors contributed to satisfaction. It is suggested that the systematic service structure such as customer satisfaction and ease of use is a necessary marketing strategy for survival and development of online travel agencies. It is suggested that the marketing concentration strategy with the first visitors as the target market is effective and this is a part of the marketing strategy for the survival of online travel agencies.

Measurement and Algorithm Calculation of Maxillary Positioning Change by Use of an Optoelectronic Tracking System Marker in Orthognathic Surgery (악교정수술에서 광전자 포인트 마커를 이용한 상악골 위치 변화의 계측 및 계산 방법 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Woong;Kim, Soung-Min;Eo, Mi-Young;Park, Jung-Min;Myoung, Hoon;Lee, Jong-Ho;Kim, Myung-Jin
    • Maxillofacial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery
    • /
    • v.33 no.3
    • /
    • pp.233-240
    • /
    • 2011
  • Purpose: To apply a computer assisted navigation system to orthognathic surgery, a simple and efficient measuring algorithm calculation based on affine transformation was designed. A method of improving accuracy and reducing errors in orthognathic surgery by use of an optical tracking camera was studied. Methods: A total of 5 points on one surgical splint were measured and tracked by the Polaris $Vicra^{(R)}$ (Northern Digital Inc Co., Ontario, Canada) optical tracking system in two cases. The first case was to apply the transformation matrix at pre- and postoperative situations, and the second case was to apply an affine transformation only after the postoperative situation. In each situation, the predictive measuring value was changed to the final measuring value via an affine transformation algorithm and the expected coordinates calculated from the model were compared with those of the patient in the operation room. Results: The mean measuring error was $1.027{\pm}0.587$ using the affine transformation at pre- and postoperative situations and the average value after the postoperative situation was $0.928{\pm}0.549$. The farther a coordinate region was from the reference coordinates which constitutes the transform matrixes, the bigger the measuring error was found which was calculated from an affine transformation algorithm. Conclusion: Most difference errors were brought from mainly measuring process and lack of reproducibility, the affine transformation algorithm formula from postoperative measuring values by using of optic tracking system between those of model surgery and those of patient surgery can be selected as minimizing the difference error. To reduce coordinate calculation errors, minimum transformation matrices must be used and reference points which determine an affine transformation must be close to the area where coordinates are measured and calculated, as well as the reference points need to be scattered.

A Study on Planning Car Interior Design through Two Dimensional Lay-Out (2D LAY-OUT을 통한 자동차 실내디자인 계획 방법 연구)

  • 유연식
    • Archives of design research
    • /
    • v.11 no.2
    • /
    • pp.215-226
    • /
    • 1998
  • As late as middle of 1980s, what was referred to as new model cars consisted, on the premise of a standardized packaging layout, principally of the endeavor to transform their style images by changing little by little the form of layouts almosts similar to or with larger bodies than those of the old model ones. Afterwards even in the period of competition of engeineering and mechanical body styles for reducing fuel cost and improving comfortability in riding, the standardized packaging layout did not change visibly, simply trying to ameliorating commercialism through high output and high efficacy on the engineering part. Today the sudden prevalent motorization in every walk of life has brought about the development of the car industry, thus producing surplus supply and technical standardization. This phenomenon of technical standardization leads the concept of the renovation of car design to a way quite different from that of the past and so may be said to be confronted with an era that requires genuine-sense car design in a way. It seems that interior design plans are of much more importance than external shapes. This is because the effort for enhancing comfortability to keep car passengers' needs of transportation is one of the essences of car design. The objective of this study consists in inquiring into how to plan motorcar interior design, an essential prerequisite in determining the external or of a car, obtaining data needed via analysis of interior design plans of the car models that have won favorable criticism from consumers, thus contributing to the use of the data obtained for reference in car design activities in a genuine sense.

  • PDF

Influence of the Education Service Quality and Result Expectations on Behavioral Intention: Focus on the TOEIC Business of a Global Company (교육서비스 품질과 교육성과의 기대일치여부가 행동의도에 미치는 영향: 글로벌기업의 TOEIC사업을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Ho-Gye;Song, In-Am;Hwang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.11 no.2
    • /
    • pp.71-81
    • /
    • 2013
  • Purpose - The TOEIC test has been leading the change in the quality and the globalization of companies for about last 30 years. The TOEIC test is taken by about two million people each year and is used as a criterion to select new employees in companies or government offices, for performance ratings, and for overseas posting selections. Universities also use TOEIC test in various ways. Since the TOEIC test is used for the selection of new students for admission, transferring extra credits, scholarships, graduation certification, and admission of international students studying abroad, many universities all over the country provide students with TOEIC study lectures through their own language institutes. Despite the fact, there has been no research on the service quality or even the current situation of these institutes. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the factors that impact TOEIC lecture service quality and analyzes the effect of the expectation related to the education service quality and the result of education on intentional behavior. Research design, data, methodology - Data was collected by administering a survey to current TOEIC students from different university language institutes. The survey questionnaire comprised of a five-point Likert scale. The demographic analysis was conducted using the frequency analysis method and the factor analysis was conducted to verify the validity of questionnaire over any variable. The reliability analysis was conducted to verify the reliability of the results. Besides, multiple regression analysis, regression analysis, and mediated effect verification were also conducted. For education service quality, four different independent variables such as reliability, response, conviction, and sympathy were considered using the SERVQUAL survey model. Based on the research models, the study hypotheses below were formulated in order to recognize an effect relationship between the variables. The four hypotheses are, "the hypothesis on education service quality and TOEIC study result expectation," "the hypothesis on education service quality and behavioral intention," "the hypothesis on study result expectation and behavioral intention," and "the hypothesis on study result expectation and mediated effect." Results - The results are as follows. First, the factors like response, conviction, and sympathy have a positive influence on TOEIC study result expectations. Second, the TOEIC study result expectation has a positive influence on the factors of behavioral intention such as re-sign up, positive word-of-mouth, "loyalty towards school." Third, it was verified that the mediated effect on behavioral intention was influenced by education service quality at university foreign language institute, while the study result expectation has only a partial mediated effect. Conclusions - The implications of this study are summarized as follows: First, it suggests a new research model for the effect of the expectation related to the education service quality and the result of education in the university language institutes on the behavioral intention. Second, it has established a relationship between the education service quality and study result expectation by verifying the mediated effect on them.

  • PDF

Analysis of Changes in the Population Potential of the Neighboring Areas of Sejong City Using the Accessibility Model (Accessibility 모델을 활용한 세종시 인접 지역의 인구잠재력 변화 분석)

  • Kim, Ho-Yong;Yun, Jeong-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.167-178
    • /
    • 2014
  • As large-scale housing sites are being developed rapidly in Sejong City, which was launched in 2012 for resolving the adverse effects of overconcentration in the capital area, promoting balanced development of the country, and reinforcing national competitiveness, changes in spatial structure are expected in the surrounding areas. For setting the directions of urban planning, it is essential to understand changes in spatial structure. This study purposed to measure changes in the spatial structure of neighboring areas resulting from the construction of Sejong City by approaching from the aspect of spatial interaction. In the analysis, we calculated population potential for future spatial interaction using the accessibility model, and interpreted quantitatively and qualitatively the outcomes of spatial interaction among neighboring areas before and after the construction of Sejong City using population potential as an indicator. According to the results of the analysis, the impact range of the population potential of the subject areas had been shrinking continuously since 1995, and in 2013 population potential dispersed as the population concentrated on and around Cheonan City. Although Sejong City, as a new area of population potential, was not found to play the role of a pivotal point for the surrounding areas, it is probably because the analysis was made just after people began to move to Sejong City. Accordingly, along with the effort of Sejong City to reach the planned population, it is necessary to keep monitoring changes in related factors and changes in the spatial structure of the surrounding cities resulting from the growth of population.

A Study on the Deformation Behavior of the Segmental Grid Retaining Wall Using Scaled Model Tests (조립식 격자 옹벽의 변형거동에 관한 모형실험 연구)

  • Bae, Woo-Seok;Kwon, Young-Cheul;Kim, Jong-Woo
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.17 no.5
    • /
    • pp.350-359
    • /
    • 2007
  • Most large cut slopes of open pit mines, roadways, and railways are steeply inclined and composed with rocks that do not contain soils. However, these rock slopes suffer both weathering and fragmentation. In the case of steep slopes, falling rock and collapse of a slope may often occur due to surface erosion. Cast-in place concrete and rubble work are the most widely used earth structure-based pressure supports that act as restraints against the collapse of the rock slope. In order to overcome the shortcomings of conventional retaining walls, a segmental grid retaining wall is being used with connects precasted segments to construct the wall. In this study, laboratory model test was conducted to estimate deformation behavior of segmental grid retaining wall with configuration of rear strecher, height and inclination of the wall. In order to examine the behavior characteristics of a segmental grid retaining wall, this research analyzes the aspects of spacial displacement through relative displacement according to change in the inclination of the wall. Also, the walls behavior according to the formation and status of the rear stretcher which serves the role of transferring the load from the header and the stretcher which make up the wall, the displacement of backfill materials in the wall, and the location of the maximum load were surveyed and the characteristics of displacement in the segmental grid retaining wall were observed. The test results of the segmental grid retaining wall showed that there was a sudden increase in failure load according to the decrease in the wall's height and the size of the in was greatly decreased. Furthermore, it revealed that with identical inclination and height, the structure of the rear stitcher did not greatly affect the starting point or size of maximum horizontal displacement, but rather had a stronger effect on the inclination of the wall.

A Study on Verification of Delivery Ratio Methodology for Basic Plan at TPLMs(Total Pollutant Load Management System) (수질오염총량관리계획 수립을 위한 유달율 적용방안 검증 연구)

  • Lee, Sung Jun;Rhee, Han Pil;Park, Ji Hyung;Kim, Yong Seok;Hwang, Ha Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
    • /
    • v.39 no.12
    • /
    • pp.714-722
    • /
    • 2017
  • The TPLMs is a system to manage the total amount of pollutants discharged from the watershed in order to achieve the target water quality of the river. In this process, the pollutant load can be classified into generation, discharge and delivery load. When using equation 2, the discharge coefficient should be 1. In case of using equation 3, it is considered that the discharge coefficient defined in the Technical Guideline should be applied. The delivery load is calculated as the product of the discharge load and the delivery ratio, and the delivery ratio is defined as the rate at which the pollutant discharged from the watershed reaches a specific point in the stream. In this study, the delivery ratio estimation method proposed by Hwang (2016) was applied to the Yonggang watershed in the Nakdong river. And the input data of QUALKO2 model was generated by using the estimated delivery ratio (equation 3) and the validation study was conducted by comparing with DRave (equation 2). As a result of the study, it is possible to use both the equation 2 and the equation 3, but it is necessary to change the methodology according to the application of the discharge coefficient.

Recent Changes of Sedimentation Rate in Lake Takkobu, Northern Japan, Determined 210Pb Dating (210Pb 연대측정에 의한 일본 타호부호수의 토사퇴적속도 변화 분석)

  • Ahn, Young Sang;An, Ki-Wan;Lee, Kye-Han;Nakamura, Futoshi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.103 no.1
    • /
    • pp.80-86
    • /
    • 2014
  • $^{210}Pb$ dating was conducted to examine the influence of land use changes in the forest catchment on lake sedimentation. The Kushiro River, into which Lake Takkobu drains under regular flow conditions, contributed to an increased sedimentation rate in sampling point at the lake outflow because turbid water from the Kushiro River flows back into Lake Takkobu during floods. The elevated sediment flux from the catchment dilutes the $^{210}Pb$ concentration in sampling points at the inflow of the Takkobu River and the lake outflow, which causes fluctuations in the $^{210}Pb$ concentrations in sediment cores. The $^{210}Pb$ dating was estimated using the CRS (Constant rate of Supply) model. The dates by the CRS model in Lake Takkobu profiles were in good agreement with the dates by $^{137}Cs$. Sedimentation rates reconstructed for the past 100-150 years suggested that sedimentation rates increased drastically following land use changes. While a natural sedimentation rate of $0.01-0.03g/cm^2/year$ is observed until the 1880s, whereas lake sedimentation accelerated to $0.03-0.09g/cm^2/year$ following land use changes such as deforestation and channelization, between the 1880s and 1940s. In particular, the sedimentation rates have been associated with deforestation, channelization, agricultural development and road construction, since the 1980s, and these rates were about 9-28 times higher than those under natural conditions, leading to accelerated lake shallowing.