• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.105-124
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• 2009

The situation of the global food markets has been being rapidly restructured and entering on a new phase by new dynamic and driving forces. The factors such as economic growth and income increase, high energy price, globalization, urbanization, and global climate change are transforming patterns of food consumption, production, and markets. The prices and markets of world food and energy are getting increasingly linked each other. Food and fuel are the global dilemma issues associated with the risk of diverting farmland or of consuming cereals for biofuel production in detriment of the cereals supply to the global food markets. An estimated 100 million tons of grain per year are being redirected from food to fuel. Therefore, the objectives of this study are as follows: Firstly, the study examines situations of the world food and energy resources, analyzes the trends of prices of the crude oil and biofuel, and formulates the food-energy links mechanism. Secondly, the study builds a simulation model, based on system dynamics approach, for not only analyzing the global cereals market and energy market but also forecasting the global production, consumption, and stock of those markets by 2030 in the future. The model of this study consists of four sectors, i.e., world population dynamics sector, global food market dynamics sector, global energy market dynamics sector, scenario sector of world economic growth and oil price.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.535-555
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• 2021

This study empirically analyzes the effects of international oil prices on domestic stock market volatility. The data used for the analysis are 10-minute high-frequency data of the KOSPI index and WTI futures price from January 2, 2015, to July 30, 2021. For using the high-frequency data, a heterogeneous autoregression (HAR) model is employed. The analysis model utilizes the advantages of high frequency data to observe the impact of international oil prices through realized volatility, realized skewness, and kurtosis as well as oil price return. In the estimation, the Box-Cox transformation is applied in consideration of the distribution of realized volatility with high skewness. As a result, it finds that the daily return fluctuation of the WTI price has a statistically significant positive (+) effect on the volatility of the KOSPI return. However, the volatility, skewness, and kurtosis of the WTI return do not appear to affect the volatility of the KOSPI return. This result is believed to be because the volatility of the KOSPI return reflects the daily change in the WTI return, but does not reflect the intraday trading behavior of investors.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.663-670
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• 2016

This paper analyzes the asymmetric pass-through effects of crude oil price changes on export prices in Korea's manufacturing sector using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. These pass-through effects are important for Korean companies that are highly dependent on exports. Because the effects differ by industry, eight sectors of the manufacturing industry were examined. The model is effective for separately testing the long-term and short-term differences between the export-price pass-through effects when crude oil prices increase and decrease. The estimation results show that there is positive pass-through to export prices as crude oil prices change, and there are asymmetric effects in some manufacturing sectors. Short-term asymmetries were detected in the export prices of five sectors that include general machinery and transport equipment, and significant long-term asymmetries were found for petroleum and coal products and for textile and leather products. The long-term export price of oil and coal products rose by 0.992% with a 1% increase in the oil price and fell by 0.977% with 1% decrease. Therefore, corporate strategies and government export policies should be established in accordance with these asymmetric pass-through effects.

• Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.22-30
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• 2009

Energy environment has been changing rapidly such as the fluctuation of oil prices and the effect on UNFCCC. Oil price change affects Korea's economy heavily due to her poor natural resources and large dependence of consumed energy resources. Korea takes the 4th place of importing the crude oil and 9th place in $CO_2$ emissions with the 1st place of $CO_2$ emissions increasing rate. Considering the current statue of Korea including oil price change and UNFCCC, Korea will be expected to be the Annex I nation due to Korean energy environments and the quantity of $CO_2$ emission. Energy technology development is a crucial key to cope with Korea's national energy security and environments. In this study, we establish the framework, which allocates the relative weights of assessment criteria and sub-criteria, for assessing and selecting R&D programs of energy technologies strategically. We integrated fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach since the fuzzy AHP approach reflects the vagueness of human thoughts and perception effectively as making pairwise comparisons of criteria and alternatives. The fundamental data of this research results will support R&D planning phase for policy-makers and the production of well focused R&D outcomes.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.33-69
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• 2010

This paper examines the causes of the terms of trade decline in Korea since the mid-1990s, using the decomposition methodology suggested by Baxter and Kouparitsas (2000) as well as regression analysis. The main empirical results are summarized as follows. The decomposition exercise of changes in terms of trade showed that Korea's terms of trade decline for the past decade or so is attributable to goods price effect which were driven by the rise of oil prices relative to manufactures. The decomposition of terms of trade change for 55 countries showed that terms of trade decline due to goods price effect is a phenomenon that was commonly observed for exporters of manufactures since mid-1990s. These results suggest that external factors such as China's trade expansion, rather than internal factors, are mostly responsible for the decline in terms of trade. In accordance with these results, the regression results suggest that China's trade expansion contributed to Korea's terms of trade decline, especially in 2000s, by raising the import prices of oil and raw materials and lowering the export prices of manufacturing products.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.7-13
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• 2011

The climate change due to the increased consumption with fossil fuel and rise of the oil price have been serious global issues. Automobile industry consumes 30% of the oil every year and causes air pollution and global warming by the exhaust emissions and carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). The demand of two-wheeled vehicle increases every year due to the parking and traffic problem caused by the increased automobiles in the urban area. Approximately 50,000,000 two-wheeled vehicles were produced in 2008. The development and sales of the hybrid two-wheeled vehicle industry become active due to its increased market demands. In this paper, the change of the motor and battery efficiency, driving distance, hill climbing ability with the change of the motor capacity was analyzed. Simulation of the peculiarities in urban driving schedule(World-wide Motorcycle Test Cycle(WMTC), Manhattan driving schedule), constant speed(10 km/h, 35 km/h) of small electronic two-wheeled vehicle was also carried out. Through the simulation result, appropriate capacities of the motor and battery for urban driving was acquired.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.759-784
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• 2013

Participants can use the allowances and offsets for implementing the compliance in the Emissions Trading Scheme(ETS). There are alternative commodities which are different prices it gives the opportunities to reduce the compliance costs and get the arbitrage. This study analyzes the price driver of spread which is the difference between EUA and sCER using AR-GARCH model, EUA and CER during the Phase 2 in EU ETS. The results show that there are common elements which impacts the EUA and sCER and also different elements between them. EUA and sCER get the effects from energy price and economic criteria such as coal price and financial crisis as common elements. However them get the effects from electric price, policy criteria such as restricted CERs and difference price between EUA and ERU price as different elements. The results shows that spread will be widen if energy price increase, especially oil and electric price give more impacts the spreads. This study has the means that it explains the reason why the spreads will broaden sharply in 2012. And it also suggests the price driver of spread during the whole period of Phase 2. In addition, this study shows that political aspects maybe become the main criteria of price change with structural elements shch as energy price in Korea ETS which starts in 2015.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.475-483
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• 1998

Structural changes in an economy system bring about serious problems in establishing economic policies. The boom of middle-east export, the oil shock, and the recent dollar crisis in Korean economy are such examples. Hence, it is necessary to identify and estimate those structural changes. This study focuses on an output and price and analyzes structural changes in aggregate demand and supply. The aggregate demand and supply structures are described by conventional dynamic simultaneous equations model, where each structural change is represented by dummy variables and estimated by the proposed Bayesian method. By applying this model to Korean output and price, structural changes in the aggregate demand and supply are analyzed.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.20 no.11
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• pp.746-751
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• 2008

The best plan to reduce the building energy consumption is that the insulation performance should be improved because the insulation and airtight of building envelopes have an effect on the energy consumption basically. New insulation materials, which have the high performance and are above insulation standard, have been developed steadily. Because there are not studies on the building energy rating system and economic evaluation considering new insulation materials, these matters should be studied. In result alternatives, which applied 6 high performance material each, reduce the annual heating energy and raise the building energy rating. Applying the vacuum insulation material(Case 1, 2) and vacuum or triple glazing can retrieves the investment with $120 and $140$\sim$150 per barrel each.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.15 no.3 s.47
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• pp.174-180
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• 2006

The trend and outlook of energy supply and demand have an crucial effect on not only energy sector but also korean economy due to the rapid change of energy environments with continuous high oil price such as dubai crude oil price of above $60 a barrel. Specifically, korea is the 9th largest energy consuming nation in the world and the 97 percentages of energy import totally depends on the import of energy resources in korea. Korean economy is influenced directly by the trend and outlook of world energy on account of that. Moreover, Should korea be the annex 1 country having responsibility for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000, in 2013, The effectuation of united nations framework convention on climate change will affect korean economy severely. In this study, we analyze the supply and demand of primary energy resources such as petroleum, coal, and natural gas. we then suggest the optimal alternatives of energy technology development that play an important part, which will be a temporary bridge, in going forward with hydrogen economy in the aspects of energy policy.