• Title/Summary/Keyword: Causality

Search Result 896, Processing Time 0.02 seconds

Energy Consumption - Economic Growth Nexus in Vietnam: An ARDL Approach with a Structural Break

  • NGUYEN, Ha Minh;NGOC, Bui Hoang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.101-110
    • /
    • 2020
  • Energy and energy consumption play an important role in strategies for socio-economic development of the country. In 1995, Vietnam officially entered the 500 kV North-South transmission power line exploits, with a full length of 1,487 km. The purpose of this study is to investigate the breakpoint and the transition effect of energy consumption to economic growth in Vietnam during the period of 1980-1994, and 1995-2016. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and the Bounds test are used to test for the presence of cointegration, whereas the Toda and Yamamoto procedure Granger causality test is used for the direction of causality. The result of the Bounds test validates the existence of cointegration among the included variables. The empirical results provide evidence that energy consumption has a positive impact on the economic growth of Vietnam in the long run. The causality test shows that there is bi-directional causality between energy consumption and economic growth, supported feedback hypothesis. There is a breakpoint in 1995 and the contribution of energy consumption in economic growth in the period of 1995-2016 is lower than the stage 1980-1994. This study suggests Government authorities explore new sources of energy to achieve sustainable economic development in the long run.

The Dynamic Relationship of Domestic Credit and Stock Market Liquidity on the Economic Growth of the Philippines

  • CAMBA, Abraham C. Jr.;CAMBA, Aileen L.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.37-46
    • /
    • 2020
  • The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

The Causality and Volatility Spillover between Farming fish Species in Consumption Replacement Relation (소비 대체 양식어종 간의 가격 인과성과 변동성 전이에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
    • /
    • v.46 no.3
    • /
    • pp.119-127
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study is to analyse the causality and volatility spillover between farming fish species in consumption replacement relation using flatfish(oliver flounder) and rockfish's wholesale market price data from September 2006 to July 2015. For the analysis, VAR(5) model and bivariate asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model are employed. The empirical results of this study are summarized as follows: First, the price volatility of flatfish and rockfish is very large without the trend during the sample period. Second, the correlation coefficient between flatfish and rockfish wholesale markets has positive 0.1059 value. Third, causality relation is unidirectional from rockfish market to flatfish market. Fourth, conditional volatility spillover effect is unidirectional from rockfish market to flatfish market, but asymmetric volatility effect is bidirectional between flatfish and rockfish markets that implies the bad news arising from flatfish wholesale market impact on rockfish market's volatility and the bad news arising from rockfish wholesale market impact on flatfish market's volaltilty. Consequently, based on the thus results, the volatility spillover effect interacts and is bidirectional between flatfish and rockfish wholesale markets.

The Effects of Olive Flounder Outlook Project : Price Stabilization, Market Efficiency, and Causality Analysis on the Prices by Distributional Channel (넙치 관측사업 효과분석 : 가격안정 및 시장효율성 개선효과, 산지-도매가격간 인과성 분석을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Heon-Dong;Ahn, Byeong-Il
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
    • /
    • v.47 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-20
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of outlook project for olive flounder, from the view point of price stabilization, market efficiency, and causality of the prices in different distribution channels. Analytical results show that the volatility of producer price of olive flounder has been significantly mitigated after the implementation of the outlook project. The market efficiency is estimated to be improved after implementing the outlook project although there is an inefficiency on price determination process in some producing regions. The causality test on the producer and wholesale price shows that producing stage leads the wholesale stage in forming the prices. It is found that Jeju leads the flounder price on the size of 500g and 2kg, while Wando leads the price of 1kg size. These estimation result as whole indicate that outlook project for olive flounder has accomplished the intended goals.

Co-integration and Causality Analysis among Major Black gram Markets in Andhra Pradesh, India

  • Kumar, K. Nirmal Ravi
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.40-54
    • /
    • 2021
  • Market integration and prices in pulse crops like black gram play an important role in determining the production decisions of the farmers and diversification towards high value nutritious crops. In this context, the present study explores extent of market integration and price transmission in selected major black gram markets in Andhra Pradesh using Johansen co-integration, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality test. The study used monthly prices data of black gram (Rs/quintal) sourced from selected markets of Srikakulam, Krishna and Kurnool spanning January, 1990 to December, 2019. The results of the study strongly buttressed the existence of co-integration and interdependence of selected black gram markets in Andhra Pradesh. However, the speed of adjustment of the prices found to be moderate in Krishna market and quite weaker in Srikakulam market and thereby prices correct a small percentage of the disequilibrium in these markets with the greatest percentage by the external and internal forces. So, it necessitates the need for future research, to investigate the influence of external and internal factors such as market infrastructure, Government policy and self-sufficient production, product characteristics and utilization towards market integration. As there exists only unidirectional causality from Krishna to Kurnool and from Krishna to Srikakulam markets, it calls for strengthening the information technology for flow of market information regularly to help the farmers for increasing their income.

Economic Globalization and Financial Development: Empirical Evidence from India and Sri Lanka

  • BEHERA, Chinmaya
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.5
    • /
    • pp.11-19
    • /
    • 2021
  • The paper examines the nexus between economic globalization, financial development and institutional reform in India and Sri Lanka during the period 1990-2017. Using the panel ARDL method, the study finds the long-run relationship between financial development, economic globalization, and institutional reforms. From the short-run equation, the study finds the negative and statistically significant impact of economic globalization on financial development in India whereas Sri Lanka has a positive impact of institutional quality on financial development. Then, the study finds no short-run causality between financial development, economic globalization and institutional reforms. However, the study finds bi-direction strong causality between economic globalization and financial development. Further, the study finds uni-directional strong causality from institutional quality to financial development and economic globalization. Moreover, there is an existence of long-run causality between financial development, economic globalization and institutional quality. For the robustness of the results, the study considers the financial market as a proxy for financial development. Then, the study applies the panel ARDL test and find the consistency in the results. The policymakers in India and Sri Lanka should focus on institutional reforms so that it can reap the benefit of economic globalization. In turn, the quality of institutional reforms can thereby lead to financial development.

Visual Field Defect after Taking Atorvastatin/Ezetimibe, a Case Study (Atorvastatin/ezetimibe 복합제 복용 후 발생한 시야결손 부작용 사례보고)

  • Kim, Jiyoon;Lee, Kyunggyu;Kim, Junyoung;Lee, Jung-Min;Kim, Na-Young;Lee, Mo-Se;Ji, Eunhee
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.133-137
    • /
    • 2019
  • Atorvastatin is one of the most widely prescribed medications for dyslipidemia treatment. In Korea, post combined therapy with ezetimibe, a 73-year-old woman was reported by a community pharmacy to have experienced visual field defect, which recovered after drug discontinuation. She had never experienced this symptom before, and several studies have reported an association between use of statins and visual disorders such as blurred vision, diplopia, and cataract. Blockage of cholesterol accumulation, oxidative stress, or myopathy is expected to be a cause of this symptom. Naranjo scale, Korean causality assessment algorithm (Ver.2), and World Health Organization-Uppsala Monitoring Center (WHO-UMC) criteria were the three tools used to determine causality between the visual disorder and atorvastatin. The results represent 'probable', 'certain', and 'probable/likely' causality, respectively. Our results, in combination with a review of literature, indicate that ocular adverse effects are highly likely related to atorvastatin.

Granger Causality Test between ENSO and Winter Climate Variability over the Korean Peninsula (엘니뇨-남방진동과 한반도 겨울철 기후변동성의 그랜저 인과관계 검정)

  • Park, Chang-Hyun;Son, Seok-Woo;Choi, Jung
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.171-179
    • /
    • 2018
  • The causal relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and winter climate variability in Korea is tested by analyzing Korea Meteorological Administration Automatic Synoptic Observing System datasets for the past 59 years. Consistent with previous studies, positive phase of ENSO (El Nino) tends to cause warmer temperature and heavier precipitation in Korea in early winter with three-week lead time. This causality is quantified by performing Granger causality test. It turns out that ENSO explains an additional 9.25% of the variance of early-winter temperature anomalies in Korea, beyond that already provided by temperature itself. Likewise, 22.18% additional information is gained to explain early-winter precipitation variance by considering ENSO. This result, which differs from simple lead-lag correlation analysis, suggests that ENSO needs to be considered in predicting early-winter surface climate variability in Korea.

A Case Report of Esophageal Ulceration after Taking Doxycycline (독시사이클린 복용 후 발생한 식도궤양형성 사례)

  • Kim, Ga Yeon;Lee, Chan Hee;Lee, Jeong Woo;Lee, Jung-Min;Lee, Mo-Se;Ji, Eunhee
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
    • /
    • v.29 no.3
    • /
    • pp.209-214
    • /
    • 2019
  • Doxycycline is frequently prescribed to treat urogenital infections or acne vulgaris. A 39-year-old man was prescribed doxycycline as a treatment for his skin infection. He took each tablet on an empty stomach in the morning, and just before going to bed with insufficient water. After taking the prescribed medication for approximately 3 weeks, he was diagnosed with esophageal ulcer. He had not experienced these symptoms before, and the drug label says that doxycycline rarely causes esophageal ulcer. After discontinuing the medication, the symptoms disappeared. Using the World Health Organization-Uppsala Monitoring Center criteria, the causality for doxycycline-induced esophageal ulcer was evaluated as "possible." Additionally, using the Naranjo scale and Korean causality assessment algorithm (Ver. 2), the causality was evaluated as "probable." Previous reports have stated that most patients who took doxycycline with insufficient water just before going to bed or in the supine position developed esophageal ulcer. Therefore, all patients taking doxycycline must be provided with detailed instructions about the appropriate administration methods.

Analysis of the Phillips Curve: An Assessment of Turkey

  • NAR, Mehmet
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.2
    • /
    • pp.65-75
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study analyzes the validity of the Phillips curve with regards to Turkey. The existence and direction of the causality relationship (reason-outcome relationship) between unemployment and inflation is investigated using inflation and unemployment data for the period 1980-2019. Unit root tests were utilized to evaluate the stationarity of the series. In line with the Zivot-Andrews unit root test, which was developed in response to the criticism of the failure of studies that presented macro-variables like inflation to consider traditional unit root tests, in this research, the Engle-Granger cointegration test was implemented to check whether the series could perform a joint action, and, finally, the Granger causality relationship was explored. According to the results of the analysis, over the relevant period there was a single directional causality relationship from inflation toward unemployment in Turkey. The importance of this relationship at the 10% significance level indicates the existence of many different factors that affect inflation and unemployment. Given the existence of a cointegration and causality relationship between inflation and unemployment, it can be said that, in Turkey, the Phillips curve is valid for the period 1980-2019 and that an increase of 1% in inflation will reduce the unemployment rate by 0.028%.