• Title/Summary/Keyword: Causal Method

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Finding Association Rules based on the Significant Rare Relation of Events with Time Attribute (시간 속성을 갖는 이벤트의 의미있는 희소 관계에 기반한 연관 규칙 탐사)

  • Han, Dae-Young;Kim, Dae-In;Kim, Jae-In;Song, Myung-Jin;Hwang, Bu-Hyun
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.16D no.5
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    • pp.691-700
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    • 2009
  • An event means a flow which has a time attribute such as the a symptom of patients, an interval event has the time period between the start-time-point and the end-time-point. Although there are many studies for temporal data mining, they do not deal with discovering knowledge from interval event such as patient histories and purchase histories. In this paper, we suggest a method of temporal data mining that finds association rules of event causal relationships and predicts an occurrence of effect event based on discovered rules. Our method can predict the occurrence of an event by summarizing an interval event using the time attribute of an event and finding the causal relationship of event. As a result of simulation, this method can discover better knowledge than others by considering a lot of supports of an event and finding the significant rare relation on interval events which means an essential cause of an event, regardless of an occurrence support of an event in comparison with conventional data mining techniques.

Invariant causal prediction for time series data: Application to won dollar exchange rate data (시계열 자료에서 불변하는 인과성 탐색: 원-달러 환율 데이터에 적용)

  • Kim, Mijeong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.837-848
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    • 2021
  • Evaluating or predicting the effectiveness of economic policies is an important issue, but it is difficult to find an economic variable which causes a significant result because there are numerous variables that cannot be taken into account. A randomized controlled experiment is the best way to investigate causality, but it is not realistically possible to control through randomization and intervention in time series data such as macroeconomic data. Although some analysis methods have been proposed to find causality, the methods such as Granger causality method and Chow test are insufficient to explain causality. Recently, Pfister et al. (2019) proposed invariant causal prediction methods which can be applicable in time series data. In this paper, we introduce the method of Pfister et al. (2019) and use the method to find macroeconomic variables invariantly affecting the won-dollar exchange rate.

The Information Search Method According to Eating-out Motivation of College Students in Eastern Area of Kangwon Province (강원도 영동권 지역 대학생들의 외식동기에 의한 정보탐색방법)

  • Yoon Tae-Hwan
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.22 no.2 s.92
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    • pp.213-221
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    • 2006
  • Although motivation and information search have both been studied continuously and separately as important marketing strategies, the relation between cause and effect has received little research attention. Therefore the objective of this study was to research the causal relationships between motivation and information search method. Frequency analysis and reliability analysis, factor analysis, and SEM(Structure Equation Model) were adopted to analyze the data. Motivation was divided into 5 factors which significantly influenced information search method. Factor 1, 'Reception and congratulation', influenced information search positively through 'newspaper, magazine', and 'word of mouth' but negatively through 'TV-advertising' and 'Flyer, Press copy'. Factor 2, 'Change of dietary life', influenced positively 'TV-advertising'. Factor 3, 'Economic saving', influenced positively 'newspaper, magazine', and 'the e-mail's advertising' Factor 4, 'Preference motivation', influenced negatively 'word of mouth' Factor 5, 'Advertisement and companion's need', influenced positively 'newspaper, magazine', and 'the e-mail's advertising' but negatively 'TV-advertising' As a result, customers appeared to choose various information search methods according to their eating-out motivation. 'The e-mail's advertising', and 'word of mouth' are popular among customers' information search methods. Therefore, food-service corporations need to try eliminating negative images of various advertisements and activate positive word of mouth marketing, promotion through internet.

The Effect of the Fashion Product Classification Method in Online Shopping Sites (인터넷 쇼핑몰의 패션 제품 분류 방식의 효과)

  • Han, Seo-Young;Cho, Yunjin;Lee, Yuri
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.287-304
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the influence of product classification standards and structure on user perception as well as their attitude towards online shopping sites. The causal relationships of variables are also examined. The analysis was based on an online survey with 247 responses. Four types of internet shopping sites were developed and used as a stimulus. The results of the mean comparison analysis indicated that perceived variety, information overload, perceived shopping value and attitude towards the site varies significantly with product classification standards and structure. There was also of a marginally significant interaction between the classification standard and structure on perceived variety and information overload. The causal relationship analysis revealed that perceived variety positively influenced hedonic and utilitarian shopping value. However, information overload had a negative effect on hedonic and utilitarian shopping value. Both the hedonic and utilitarian shopping value positively influenced attitudes towards the sites. This study demonstrates that classification method influences customer perception and attitude. It offers interesting insights on a product classification method as a strategic tool for online shopping.

A Causal Model on the Relationship between Resources of Natural Parks and User's Satisfaction (자연공원의 자원과 이용 만족도간의 관계에 관한 인과모형 -국립공원과 도립공원을 중심으로-)

  • 장병문;배민기
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.12-24
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this paper is to decompose the effect of resources of natural parks(NP) on user's satisfaction to answer the research question: What are the causal effects of resources of natural parks on user\ulcorner After reviewing the literature, classification of resources of NP, various approaches and analysis methods employed, we constructed the conceptual framework and have formulated the hypothesis of this research. We had obtained data through a questionnaire, which surveyed 414 visitors at 6 of the 73 NP in Korea in 2001, based on a stratified sampling method. We have analyzed the data using descriptive statistical methods, Pearson's correlation analysis, and a path analysis method. We found that 1) While the indirect effect of topographical feature and valley(TFV), socio-cultural resources(SCR), and climate, sound, and scent(CSS) turned out to be 2.75, 1.20, and 2.00 times higher than that of wild animal and plant(WAP), the direct effect of TFV, SCR, and landscape turned out to be 2.95, 2.88, and 2.64 times higher than that of CSS, 2) The magnitude of causal effects of the three exogeneous variables of TFV, WAP, and SCR and two intervening variables of CSS and landscape on User's satisfaction turned out to be 0.403, 0.048, 0.323, 0.188, and 0.243, respectively, 3) Total direct effect of the exogeneous and intervening variables on user's satisfaction is 0.871, while that of indirect effect is 0.334, and 4) Causal effect of tangible resources is 1.80 times higher than that of intangible while total effect of tangible resources are 1.36 times higher than that of intangible. The research results suggest that 1) Criteria for designation and maintenances of NP and results of previous studies on resources turned out to be unreliable and distorted, 2) In the criteria of planning and maintenance of NP, intangible resources must be included, 3) Remedial directions to increase user's satisfaction should be focused on maintenance of TFV and landscape in NP, and 4) The approach and path analysis adopted by this research is valid and highly useful for other resource based recreation area. It is recommended that more empirical study on seasonal variation of resources in NP based user's preference be performed in the future.

Strategic Intuition Capability toward Performance of Entrepreneurs: Evidence from Thailand

  • AUJIRAPONGPAN, Somnuk;RU-ZHE, Jintanee;JUTIDHARABONGSE, Jaturon
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.465-473
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this research is to study the confirmative components of strategic intuition capability and the study of causal influence between strategic intuition capability and firm performance of SMEs in Thailand. The consistency method, structural equation models and empirical data were used to test the influential factors on firm performance. Models were then proposed for the development of the strategic intuition capability of entrepreneurs in Thailand. The research sample consisted of 342 SME provincial champion entrepreneurs listed with Thailand's Office of Small and Medium Enterprises. The research results reveal that the model of strategic intuition capability responded well to the empirical data. Additionally, a relationship was identified between firm performance and the causal influence of the strategic intuition capability of entrepreneurs. In accordance with the empirical data, the strategic intuition capability of entrepreneurs had a significant causal influence on firm performance (Chi-square = 35.71, df = 25, P-value = 0.07615, GFI = 0.98, AGFI = 0.96, RMSEA = 0.033, RMR = 0.027). Furthermore, with respect to the development of strategic intuition capability, the development of genuine wisdom based on systematic knowledge management achieved via conscious mental concentration may lead to the next stage of strategic intuition.

Estimation of Brain Connectivity during Motor Imagery Tasks using Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition

  • Lee, Ki-Baek;Kim, Ko Keun;Song, Jaeseung;Ryu, Jiwoo;Kim, Youngjoo;Park, Cheolsoo
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.1812-1824
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    • 2016
  • The neural dynamics underlying the causal network during motor planning or imagery in the human brain are not well understood. The lack of signal processing tools suitable for the analysis of nonlinear and nonstationary electroencephalographic (EEG) hinders such analyses. In this study, noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition (NA-MEMD) is used to estimate the causal inference in the frequency domain, i.e., partial directed coherence (PDC). Natural and intrinsic oscillations corresponding to the motor imagery tasks can be extracted due to the data-driven approach of NA-MEMD, which does not employ predefined basis functions. Simulations based on synthetic data with a time delay between two signals demonstrated that NA-MEMD was the optimal method for estimating the delay between two signals. Furthermore, classification analysis of the motor imagery responses of 29 subjects revealed that NA-MEMD is a prerequisite process for estimating the causal network across multichannel EEG data during mental tasks.

An Analysis of Ecosystem Service's trade-off through Systems Thinking (시스템 사고를 통한 생태계서비스의 trade-off 관계 고찰)

  • Ham, Eun Kyung;Kim, Min;Chon, Jinhyung
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.75-100
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze causation of Ecosystem service's trade-off(ES trade-off) and to establish baseline data for wise spatial planning and management. In order to understand why and how ES trade-off occurs, systems thinking and causal loops were employed. The causal loop of ecosystem service creation cycle includes profits quantification process, decision making process, spatial planning and management process, and ecosystem services creation process. The profits quantification process has a limitation that all ecosystem service categories were not included in profits quantification, because quantification method for cultural services is insufficient. These problems led to unequal discussion opportunity in decision making process. ES trade-off occurs through transition of ecosystem function in spatial scale and temporal scale. In spatial scale, land-use variation and resource-use variation contribute to change an ecosystem function for different ES category by spatial planning and management. In temporal scale, a change of an ecosystem function for different ES category is influenced by ecological succession, seasonal change and land cover variation, which are parameter from environmental features. This study presented that spatial planning and management should ecosystem service assessment in order to enhance balanced ecosystem services.

Organizational Commitment of Hospital Employees -Testing a Causal Model in Korean Hospitals- (병원근무자의 직장애착에 관한 연구 -한 인과모형의 검증을 중심으로-)

  • 서영준
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.173-201
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    • 1995
  • A causal model of organizational commitment on the basis of Western literature was tested with a sample of 1,164 employees from two university hospitals in Korea. The model contains three groups of determinants : environmental variables(job opportunity, spouse support, and parent support), psychological variables(met expectations, work involvement, positive affectivity, and negative affectivity), and structural variables(job autonomy, work unit control, routinization, supervisor support, coworker support, role ambiguity, role conflict, workload, resource inadequacy, distributive justice, promotional chances, job security, job hazarda, and pay). The data were colleted with questionnaires and analyzed with the LISREL maximum likelihood method. It is found that (1) the following variables, listed in order of size, have significant total effects on organizational commitment : job satisfaction, met expectations, supervisor support, job security, routinization, job opportunity, negative affectivity, work involvement, distributive justice, and promotional opportunity, (2) the model explains fifty-nine percent of the variance in organizational commitment, and (3) the link with expectancy theory is justified by the results for met expectations. Two conclusions can be drawn from these findings. First, the model of organizational commitment appears to be generalizable to Korean hospitals. Second, the model of organizational commitment should include such theoretical variables as environmental, psychological, and structural factors.

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System Thinking Perspective on the Dynamic Relationship between Organizational Characteristics of Nuclear Safety Culture

  • Kim, Byung Suk;Oh, Youngmin
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2014
  • Objective: The purpose of this study is to grasp the fundamental structure of incident occurrence in nuclear organizations based on system thinking, and analyze how various causes are interrelated in terms of the causal loop diagram. Background: The recent domestic and overseas nuclear power plant-related incidents and accidents are directly or indirectly associated with safety culture, and thus effective plans for the improvement of safety culture are being called for. While the safety of a nuclear power plant is highly dependent upon technology and equipment, the utilization, maintenance and inspection of the technology and equipment are conducted by workers of the nuclear power plant. Method: Methodology of system thinking perspective using causal loop analysis. Results: As a result of the analysis, first, it turned out that the fundamental cause of incident occurrence in nuclear organizations is time constraint. Second, if a workload of workers increases, their adherence to regulations and procedures comes to be reduced due to time constraint. Third, it is needed, through organizational learning education, to increase actions made from thoughts considering safety as the utmost priority in advance. Fourth, it is necessary to improve professionalism by enhancing educational programs for new workers, and to develop various scenarios with which they can cope with certain situations. Application: This paper provides a base for system dynamics simulation model for future study.