• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2004년도 하계 학술대회 발표논문집
• /
• pp.109-128
• /
• 2004

The complexity of information and communication policy has been increasing due to its rapid changes and its expansions toward various fields. I used the2001, 2002 and 2003 White Papers on MIC(Ministry of Information and Communication Republic of Korea) as a reference and the Vensim PLE program to create a causal map. According to my analysis, no major feedback loop was found among the information and communication policies. Thus, it was impossible to conduct a causal map analysis on these policies. The causal map analysis is usually employed to understand a complex mechanism of entire policies by finding feedback loops among them. A lack of feedback loops makes it impossible to conduct the causal map analysis and means that the mechanism of such policies is even more complex to understand. The most important conclusion is that to consider feedback thought among the policies based on the systems thinking before making the policies.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.77-102
• /
• 2010

This paper examines a mechanism of the Electronic Territory Expansion and the Information-oriented Society. Especially, a strategy for the territory development based on intelligence is suggested. The strategy is divided into a strategy for the domestic electronic territory and a plan for the global electronic territory. To examine the strategy and the plan, this paper is using the causal map analysis based on the System Thinking Approach. The causal map of the mechanism is characterized by a positive feedback loop. The paper has concluded that it is important to make the positive loops as a virtuous circle. It means that when a society dominates the advantageous position firstly in the field of intelligent and electronic territory, the competitiveness can grow in arithmetical progression.

• 지식경영연구
• /
• 제10권2호
• /
• pp.35-48
• /
• 2009

The paper proposes a quantitative causal ordering map (QCOM) to combine qualitative and quantitative methods in a framework. The procedures for developing QCOM consist of three phases. The first phase is to collect partially known causal dependencies from experts and to convert them into relations and causal nodes of a model graph. The second phase is to find the global causal structure by tracing causality among relation and causal nodes and to represent it in causal ordering graph with signed coefficient. Causal ordering graph is converted into QCOM by assigning regression coefficient estimated from path analysis in the third phase. Experiments with the prediction model of Korea stock price show results as following; First, the QCOM can support the design of qualitative and quantitative model by finding the global causal structure from partially known causal dependencies. Second, the QCOM can be used as an integration tool of qualitative and quantitative model to offerhigher explanatory capability and quantitative measurability. The QCOM with static and dynamic analysis is applied to investigate the changes in factors involved in the model at present as well discrete times in the future.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.33-60
• /
• 2009

This study explores the limitation in making a causal model through an existing case and proposes an alternative plan to improve a theoretical system of causation modeling. To make a dynamic and actual model, several principles are needed such as reality based analysis of system structures and dynamics, consistent expression of causations, conversion of numerical formulas to causal relations, classification and arrangement of variables by size of concept, etc. However, it is hard to find cases to apply these considerations from existing models in System Dynamics. Therefore, this study verifies errors of derived models from literatures and proposes principles and guides that should be considered to make a sound dynamic model on a causal map. It contributes to making an opportunity for exciting public opinion to improve theory about causal maps, yet it has limitation that the study does not advance forward to the experimental step. For future study, it plans to make up by classifying and leveling causal variables, developing a dynamic BSC model.

• 지식경영연구
• /
• 제10권2호
• /
• pp.49-63
• /
• 2009

In this study, sub domain of flow was investigated on literature survey, and suggested of the measuring method of web-site flow and its simulation analysis. Constructing of measuring method of flow, and using this method what-if analysis was simulated when several condition changed. Using causal map approach to extract knowledge from web-site domain experts and to derives a causal relationship of knowledge. Specially, in our study, describes method of developing and building causal map, and suggests guide line of this method on practical application. This research results show that web-site flow starts "direct searching" or "interesting of special issue(domain)", and when challenges of web-site were accorded with user's skills web-site flow grows. Further, in the web-site, information searching intention results in increase of user's duration time and experience flow to discovery new interesting issues in this process. If user's web-site of interaction is increased, awareness of environment conditions decreased, finally, user's telepresense results in increased web-site flow. This paper contained thai this method make used of measuring flow in the web-site and developing of practical strategy.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제17권3호
• /
• pp.5-29
• /
• 2016

The Korean government has constructed the national competency standards (NCS) rapidly since the year 2013. Also, it has pushed 2-year colleges to adopt NCS-based educational programs and public institutions to hire new employees by using NCS. It expects that NCS will deplete the mismatch between the requirements of employers and the abilities of employees. The purpose of this paper is to find correct accelerating policies for universities to adopt NCS-based educational programs. In order to achieve the purpose, primarily the government policies for NCS were analyzed by using causal map. And then, three accelerating policy recommendations for universities to adopt NCS were drawn by using the results of causal map analysis. The three recommendations are as follows. First, the quality of NCS should be kept highly. Secondly, the NCS-based hiring system of public institutions should also be standardized. Finally, the authorities of universities should be guaranted whenever they make educational programs.

• 한국경영과학회지
• /
• 제19권1호
• /
• pp.17-40
• /
• 1994

The objectives of this paper are to apply fuzzy cognitive map (FCM)- related techniques to (1) extract causal knowledge from a specific problem-domain and (2) perform a series of causal analysis in complicated decision making area. We propose a set operation-based augmentation (SOBA) algorithm to combine multiple FCMs developed by multiple experts. Based on the SOBA knowledge acquisition algorithm, we can obtain a causal knowledge base fairly representing multiple experts' knowledge about a problem domain. The causal knowledge base built by SOBA algorithm can be described as a matrix form, guaranteeing mathematically compact operation compared with a production (if-then) knowledge base. We applied out method to stock market analysis problem whichis a typical of highly unstructured problems in OR/MS fields.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제2권1호
• /
• pp.51-68
• /
• 2001

Politicians are competing to persuade their policies and to oppose other's. Policy persuasion is based on two independent reasons; moral causes vs. economic outcomes. There have been few studies on investigating and comparing their structural differences. This paper studies how policy makers use moral causes and economic outcomes in persuading their policies. Causal and cognitive structures of persuasions for and against sunshine policy are compared by cognitive map analysis. Finally, this study discusses how to use causal map analysis to understand moral causes and economic outcomes as tools for policy persuasion.

• 한국안전학회지
• /
• 제37권5호
• /
• pp.42-55
• /
• 2022

In this study, an accident at an in-house maintenance subcontractor of a manufacturing company was analyzed using representative systemic analysis methods, and the results were compared to determine the socio-technical and organizational structure causal factors. Systemic accident analyses were performed using AcciMap, STAMP-CAST, and a method that utilizes work processing procedures. The causal factors derived from the three methods were classified according to HFACS classification criteria. AcciMap and STAMP-CAST analyses were able to derive legal problems and defects in organizational structure between the company and the subcontractors. The method that utilized the work processing procedures drew the most causal factors of the three methods but showed some limitations in deriving legal and facility-related problems. Most of the causal factors identified through the systemic methods could be classified according to the HFACS classification criteria, except for the legal and organizational structure matters. Socio-technical and organizational problems with a holistic perspective of the company and subcontractors could be found using systemic analysis methods. However, it is necessary to conduct analysis using various methods in order to derive more comprehensive measures to prevent accidents because each analysis method showed some limitations in the derivation or expression of some causal factors. The results of this study can be helpful in selecting and using an appropriate method for accident analysis.

• 정보처리학회논문지B
• /
• 제15B권2호
• /
• pp.147-158
• /
• 2008

본 논문에서는 인과관계 지식의 표현과 추론에 가장 대표적으로 사용되는 퍼지인식도(FCM, Fuzzy Cognitive Map)와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크(BBN, Bayesian Belief Network)를 구조적으로 분석한다. 퍼지인식도와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크는 의사 결정을 지원하는데 중요한 인과관계 지식을 표현하고 추론하는데 사용되는 가장 대표적인 프레임워크이지만 인과관계 지식응용 영역에서 두 프레임워크의 역할에 대한 구조적 비교 연구는 이루어지지 않고 있다. 본 논문에서는 두 프레임워크의 구조적 비교를 통해 퍼지인식도와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크의 중요한 특징들을 추출하고, 이를 통해 인과 지식 공학에서 어떻게 퍼지 인식도와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크가 이용되어야 하는지를 보인다. 인과관계 지식의 표현과 추론의 과정을 평가하는데 비교 평가를 위한 항목으로서 본 논문에서는 사용성, 표현력, 추론능력, 정형화와 완결성이 사용되었다.