• Title/Summary/Keyword: Causal Loop Analysis

Search Result 78, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Development of a Stock Flow Model on Diffusion Process of Innovative Goods: the Green Car Diffusion Case (혁신제품 확산과정에 대한 저유량 모형 개발: 친환경 자동차를 대상으로)

  • Park, Kyungbae
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.25-49
    • /
    • 2013
  • As global competition for green car, that is environmentally friendly car, is getting tougher, the governments and the related industries are putting their core efforts in its diffusion. However, the green car sales are disappointing so far. To overcome the gridlock, it is necessary to develop concrete analytical framework to understand the diffusion process. Based on causal loop analysis from the previous work, we have identified main variables and relationships of them in the diffusion process and developed a stock-flow diagram and mathematical formula for the main components. The model would be applied for further quantitative simulation on the diffusion process of green car and other innovative goods as well. Also, we have suggested constructive insights for the policy makers and for the related industries. First, it is important to increase consumers' willingness to consider through marketing and word of mouth to accelerate the diffusion process. Second, in the perspective of the industry, the market share of green car should be increased at the earliest possible stage and this could be done by enhancing each components of green car attractiveness(e.g. price, driving range, social infra). Third, companies should develop a balanced investment between consumer and technology sector through a flexible financial policy. Fourth, the government continuously has the role of investing in the related R&D and social infra building. We expect the green car diffusion model and related formula from the research can provide meaningful tools to analyze the diffusion process of other new and innovative goods based on its deep researched literature review.

  • PDF

Dynamic Analysis on the Host regional Effects of before and after Mega-Events (메가 이벤트 개최 전후 개최지역에 미치는 효과에 관한 동태적 분석)

  • Park, Bok-Jae;Moon, Young-Soo
    • International Commerce and Information Review
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.289-307
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study was to analyze dynamics of host regional effect in accordance with Mega-events. Yeosu Expo, 2012 was the Mega-event, and dynamic changes in economic indicators such as number of tourists, GRDP, employment rate, and real estate price were analyzed before and after the event. The Mega-event affected positively and increased on the number of tourists. While GRDP affected positively only right before the event, and the employment rate was not significantly affected by the event. The real estate price was increased from the announced time of hosting to the event held, but later decreased. This study suggested the comprehensive method for analyzing the effect of Mega-event and there was a cyclical causality among the result variables.

  • PDF

Evaluation of Policy for Reduction of Private Tutoring Expenditure based on Systems Thinking: Focusing on Roh and Lee Governments (시스템사고를 통한 사교육비경감정책 평가: 노무현 정부와 이명박 정부를 중심으로)

  • Baek, Woo-Jung;Choi, Jong-Deok
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.5-34
    • /
    • 2011
  • The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the policies for reducing private tutoring expenditure in Roh Mu Hyun and Lee Myeong Bak Government using Causal Loop analysis based on the Systems Thinking perspective. The results are as follows. First, high educational achievers receive more private tutoring than lowers and children who have rich parents have better chance to take private tutoring than the others. It reflects the social characteristics which emphasize the academic ability and educational background. Second, two governments implemented educational policies to control the private tutoring expenditure as balancing loops ; strengthening public education, providing after school programs and EBS KSAT teaching and improving the entrance exam of university. Third, they overlooked the unintended feedback loops coming from 1) incongruity between causes and countermeasures of shadow education 2) wrong perception of substitutional relationship between public education and shadow education 3) side effect of the policy increasing the weight of student record 4) problems of diversifying high schools 5) dilemma of easing the burden of testing through admission officer system. The conclusion is that policies of reducing the private education expenses have failed because two governments don't consider unintended Feedback Loops in the process of making education policies. So we have to make policies based on Systems Thinking and reducing private education expenses should not be the purpose of strengthening the public education.

  • PDF

Development of a Quantitative Model on Adolescent Cyberbullying Victims in Korea: A System Dynamics Approach (시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 국내청소년 사이버불링피해 모델 개발)

  • You, Mi Jin;Ham, Eun Mi
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
    • /
    • v.49 no.4
    • /
    • pp.398-410
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study used a system dynamics methodology to identify correlation and nonlinear feedback structures among factors affecting adolescent cyberbullying victims (CV) in Korea and to construct and verify a simulation model. Methods: Factors affecting CV were identified by reviewing a theoretical background in existing literature and referencing various statistical data. Related variables were identified through content validity verification by an expert group, after which a causal loop diagram (CLD) was constructed based on the variables. A stock-flow diagram (SFD) using Vensim Professional 7.3 was used to establish a CV model. Results: Based on the literature review and expert verification, 22 variables associated with CV were identified and the CLD was prepared. Next, a model was developed by converting the CLD to an SFD. The simulation results showed that the variables such as negative emotions, stress levels, high levels of conflict in schools, parental monitoring, and time spent using new media had the strongest effects on CV. The model's validity was verified using equation check, sensitivity analysis for timestep and simulation with 4 CV adolescent. Conclusion: The system dynamics model constructed in this study can be used to develop intervention strategies in schools that are focused on counseling that can prevent cyberbullying and assist in the victims' recovery by formulating a feedback structure and capturing the dynamic changes observed in CV. To prevent cyberbullying, it is necessary to develop more effective strategies such as prevention education, counseling and treatment that considers factors pertaining to the individual, family, school, and media.

A Dynamic Investigation of iBeacon Adoption at Tourism Destination (관광지에서의 iBeacon 도입에 대한 동태적 분석)

  • Choedon, Tenzin;Lee, Young-Chan
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-14
    • /
    • 2018
  • The interconnectedness of all things is continuously expanding. For example, bluetooth low energy (BLE) beacons are wireless radio transmitters that can send an identifier to nearby receivers and trigger a number of applications, from proximity marketing to indoor location-based service. iBeacon technology which is one of the newest technologies in the smart tourism field, is reckoned as being very useful for travelers in enhancing the experience with visiting places. However, there is consequently not much existing research yet about the connection between iBeacon technology and tourism destination. Considering that, this study analyzes the adoption of iBeacon in tourism destination, this study examine the interrelationships and feedback structures of key factors in iBeacon adoption. To serve the purpose, this study used system dynamics approach to develop a model of iBeacon adoption in tourism destination. The analysis results showed that the concept of 'Social Influences' is one of the significant predictors for individual's intention behavior to accept iBeacon, and word of mouth (WOM), subjective norm, privacy concern, and perceived usefulness are key factors influencing the iBeacon adoption.

The Diffusion Period and Productivity of Smartwork by Business Simulation (비즈니스 시뮬레이션으로 살펴본 스마트워크의 확산 기간과 생산성 연구)

  • Jung, Byoungho
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.57-73
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the diffusion period and productivity of smartwork in an organization. Firms are increasingly interested in smartwork for non contact work and working from home because of the corona 19. The smartwork is a new technology that changes face-to-face work in an organization. It helps the work of individuals and organizations regardless of time and place. The theoretical background describes the complexity, system thinking, diffusion theory, smart work, organizational resistance, and productivity. This study analyzes the diffusion period and productivity of smart work through business simulation techniques. A simulation study progresses four stages. There are problem definition, hypothesis establishment and causal loop diagram, model construction and verification, and policy evaluation. The simulation models contain an individual's resistance variables organizational investment and leadership variables related to the operation of smartwork. The organizational investment variables include organizational culture, legal system, implement systems and technology investment. The individual resistance variables include cognitive, attitude, structure and technological resistance. The leadership includes leadership interest variables and performance linkage variables. The simulation executed the changes of a people number adopting smart work and the organizational productivity monthly. As a result of the simulation, many organization members have accepted the smart work innovation after 20 months. The organizational productivity through smart work showed very high value after 16 months. In scenario analysis, the individuals' awareness and attitude resistance showed very important variables to productivity and a personal change of smart work adoption. Meanwhile, The organizational investment showed that the high driving-force increased not productivity and the low driving-force showed decreased low productivity. Also, leadership variables showed a powerful driver for changing smart work productivity. The implication of the study has suggested extending complexity, diffusion theory and organization resistance theory based on simulation methods.

Analysis of Education Gap after Covid-19 Using Systems Thinking (시스템 사고를 활용한 Covid-19 이후 교육격차 분석)

  • Kyung-Do, Suh;Jung-il Choi;Pan-Am Choi;Jaerim Jung
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.39-48
    • /
    • 2024
  • Due to COVID-19, much research has been conducted on learning loss and educational gaps due to the postponement of the start of school and prolonged online distance learning, and most of the research has focused on the phenomenon of educational gaps. If a pandemic situation like this occurs in the future, fundamental policies are needed to resolve the educational gap. A fundamental solution requires not only an understanding of the educational gap phenomenon, but also the structure behind the phenomenon. Therefore, from a structuralist perspective, this study sought to model the educational gap caused by COVID-19 as a prototype of systems thinking and identify its structure. In addition, we looked at the unintended consequences resulting from policies aimed at resolving existing educational gaps. In order to respond to similar disaster situations in the future, policies for resolving the digital gap, support for basic academic skills, quality improvement for distance learning, and self-directed learning were discussed based on the structure of this study.

A Study on Prediction of Land Use Demand in Seongnam-city Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 성남시 토지이용수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yi, Mi Sook;Shin, Dong Bin;Kim, Chang Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.40 no.4
    • /
    • pp.261-273
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study aims to predict the land use demand of Seongnam-city using system dynamics and to simulate the effect of changes in family structure and land use density adjustment policy on land use demand. This study attempted to construct causal loop diagrams and an analysis model. The changes in land use demand over time were predicted through simulation results. As a result of the analysis, as of 2035, an additional supply of 2.08 km2 for residential land and 1.36 km2 for commercial land is required. Additionally, the current supply area of industrial land can meet the demand. Three policy experiments were conducted by changing the variable values in the basic model. In the first policy experiment, it was found that when the number of household members decreased sharply compared to the basic model, up to 7.99 km2 of additional residential land were required. In the second policy experiment, if the apartment floor area ratio was raised from 200% to 300%, it was possible to meet the demand for residential land with the current supply area of Seongnam-city. In the third policy experiment, it was found that even if the average number of floors in the commercial area was raised from four to five and the building-to-land ratio in the commercial area was raised from 80% to 85%, the demand for commercial land exceeded the supply area of the commercial area in Seongnam-city. This study is meaningful in that it proposes a new analytical model for land use demand prediction using system dynamics, and empirically analyzes the model by applying the actual urban planning status and statistics of Seongnam-city.