• Title/Summary/Keyword: Case-crossover study

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Short-term Effect of Fine Particulate Matter on Children's Hospital Admissions and Emergency Department Visits for Asthma: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

  • Lim, Hyungryul;Kwon, Ho-Jang;Lim, Ji-Ae;Choi, Jong Hyuk;Ha, Mina;Hwang, Seung-sik;Choi, Won-Jun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.205-219
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: No children-specified review and meta-analysis paper about the short-term effect of fine particulate matter ($PM_{2.5}$) on hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma has been published. We calculated more precise pooled effect estimates on this topic and evaluated the variation in effect size according to the differences in study characteristics not considered in previous studies. Methods: Two authors each independently searched PubMed and EMBASE for relevant studies in March, 2016. We conducted random effect meta-analyses and mixed-effect meta-regression analyses using retrieved summary effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and some characteristics of selected studies. The Egger's test and funnel plot were used to check publication bias. All analyses were done using R version 3.1.3. Results: We ultimately retrieved 26 time-series and case-crossover design studies about the short-term effect of $PM_{2.5}$ on children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma. In the primary meta-analysis, children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma were positively associated with a short-term $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increase in $PM_{2.5}$ (relative risk, 1.048; 95% CI, 1.028 to 1.067; $I^2=95.7%$). We also found different effect coefficients by region; the value in Asia was estimated to be lower than in North America or Europe. Conclusions: We strengthened the evidence on the short-term effect of $PM_{2.5}$ on children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma. Further studies from other regions outside North America and Europe regions are needed for more generalizable evidence.

The Influence of Asian Dust, Haze, Mist, and Fog on Hospital Visits for Airway Diseases

  • Park, Jinkyeong;Lim, Myoung Nam;Hong, Yoonki;Kim, Woo Jin
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.78 no.4
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    • pp.326-335
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    • 2015
  • Background: Asian dust is known to have harmful effects on the respiratory system. Respiratory conditions are also influenced by environmental conditions regardless of the presence of pollutants. The same pollutant can have different effects on the airway when the air is dry compared with when it is humid. We investigated hospital visits for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma in relation to the environmental conditions. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study using the Korean National Health Insurance Service claims database of patients who visited hospitals in Chuncheon between January 2006 and April 2012. Asian dust, haze, mist, and fog days were determined using reports from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Hospital visits for asthma or COPD on the index days were compared with the comparison days. We used two-way case-crossover techniques with one to two matching. Results: The mean hospital visits for asthma and COPD were $59.37{\pm}34.01$ and $10.04{\pm}6.18$ per day, respectively. Hospital visits for asthma significantly increased at lag0 and lag1 for Asian dust (relative risk [RR], 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.19; p<0.05) and haze (RR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.06-1.22; p<0.05), but were significantly lower on misty (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80-0.99; p<0.05) and foggy (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84-0.93; p<0.05) days than on control days. The hospital visits for COPD also significantly increased on days with Asian dust (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.05-1.59; p<0.05), and were significantly lower at lag4 for foggy days, compared with days without fog (RR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.75-0.97; p<0.05). Conclusion: Asian dust showed an association with airway diseases and had effects for several days after the exposure. In contrast to Asian dust, mist and fog, which occur in humid air conditions, showed the opposite effects on airway diseases, after adjusting to the pollutants. It would require more research to investigate the effects of various air conditions on airway diseases.

The Effect of Cross-Cumulation of Rule of Origin: Case Study of Korea-Canada FTA in terms of Auto Parts Import from U.S. (원산지 교차누적 효과 분석: 한-캐나다 FTA를 활용한 대(對)미 자동차 부품 수입을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Kyu-Rim;Ra, Hee-Ryang
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.109-130
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    • 2018
  • The cumulative standard is one of the criteria determining the origin of imported goods and is a provision that allows non-origin materials to be treated as origin goods when satisfying certain conditions. Regarding the Korea-Canada FTA, new cumulative standards were applied concerning cross accumulation of automobile products. It would benefit U.S. originating intermediate goods of HS code chapter 84, 85, 87, and 94 obtained into HS code heading from 8701 into 8706. We examine the effectiveness of crossover cumulative standards through the change in the import values of 84, 85, 87, 94, which are target items for cross cumulation. Only items designated for automobile parts were selected and analyzed. From the estimation results, significant changes appeared in 20 of the 35 items. It was found that the import amount increased significantly as of January 2015 or the rate of change in trend increases more than before. In addition, the estimation results show that Korean auto companies utilizing the cumulative standards through increased imports of auto parts form the U.S.

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.