• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.17 no.9
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• pp.2271-2279
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• 1993

In the case of life prediction on the structures and machines after long service, it is natural to consider a degradation problems. Most of degradation data form practical structures are isolated data obtained at the time of periodical inspection or repair. From such data, it may be difficult to obtain the degradation curve available and necessary for life prediction. In this paper, for the purpose of obtaining a degradation curves, developed the simulate degradation method and fatigue test and Charpy impact test were conducted on the degraded, simulate degraded and recovered materials. Fatigue life prediction were conducted by using the relationship between fracture transition temperature (DBTT : vTrs) obtained from the Charpy impact test through the degradation process and fatigue crack growth constants of m and C obtained from the fatigue test.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.265-274
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• 2003

Time series data are influenced by the external events such as holiday, strike, oil shock, and political change, so the external events cause a sudden change to the time series data. We regard the observation as outlier that occurred as a result of external events. In general, it is called intervention if we know the period and the reason of external events, and it makes an analyst difficult to establish a time series model. Therefore, it is important that we analyze the styles and effects of intervention. In this paper, we considered the linear time series model with invention and compared with nonlinear time series models such as ARCH, GARCH model and also we compared with the combination prediction method that Tong(1990) introduced. In the practical case study, we compared prediction power with RMSE among linear, nonlinear time series model with intervention and combination prediction method.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.95-106
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• 1995

The small-waterplane-area-twin-hull(SWATH) ship has been recognized as a promising high performance ship because of her superior seakeeping characteristics and large deck area for various operations compared to the conventional monohull ship. significant advances in analytical technics for the prediction of the ship motions, wave loads and structural responses, structural fatigue and its prediction, and hull vibration for ship motions, wave loads and structural responses, structural fatigue and its prediction, and hull vibration for SWATH ship have been much developed during the last twenty years. Based on these developments in technology an integrated computational procedures for prediction wave loads and structural responses can be used to get a accurate results. But the major problem of SWATH ship's structural design is the accurate prediction of structural responses by the maximum critical loads likely to be experienced during the life of SWATH. To get a easier and safer computational procedures and the analytical approach for determining the accurate structural responses, a case study has been presented through the project experienced.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.137-143
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• 2008

Thermal fatigue life prediction for solder joints becomes the most critical issue in present microelectronic packaging industry. And lead-free solder is quickly becoming a reality in electronic manufacturing fields. This trend requires life prediction models for new solder alloy systems. This paper describes the life prediction models for SnAgCu and SnPb solder joints, based upon non-linear finite element analysis (FEA). In case of analyses of the SnAgCu solder joints, two kinds of shapes are used. As a result, it is found that the SnAgCu solder has longer fatigue life than the SnPb solder in temperature cycling analyses.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.69-80
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• 2000

This paper presents the prediction of remaining service life of the concrete due to steel corrosion caused by the following three cases; carbonation, using sea sand and using deicing salts. The assessment of initiation period was generalized considering the existing perdiction models in the literature, corrosion experiment and field assessment. To evaluate the prediction equation of rust growth, the corrosion accelerating experiments was performed. The polarization resistance was measured by potentiostat and the conversion coefficient of polarzation resistance to corrosion rate was determined by the measurement of real mass loss. Chloride content, carbonation, cover depth, relative humidity, water-cement ratio(W/C), and the use of deicing salts were taken into account and the resulting prediction equation of rust growth was proposed on the basis of these properties. The proposed equation is to predict the rust growth during any specified period of time and be effective in particular for predicting service life of concrete in the case of using sea sand.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 1997.04a
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• pp.452-459
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• 1997

For computer aided design and construction of low noisy power plants, indoor and outdoor noise prediction program has been developed. The program utilizes the predefined data of noise sources and building materials and has the faculty to estimate the source level using the empirical formula in case of the measured data not being available. In the noise prediction, the mutual noise propagation between indoor and outdoor sites are considered. The outdoor noise source in the calculation of geometric divergence effects is modelled as the omni-directional finite line or planar source according to the source geometry and the receiving points. Outdoor noise prediction is carried out to consider the diffraction effect due to plant structures as well as the attenuation effect due to atmospheric absorption and soft ground. The results of indoor and outdoor noise prediction for a recently constructed diesel engine power plant show good agreement with the measured.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.799-804
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• 2020

Network security situation prediction is difficult due to its strong uncertainty, but DS evidence theory performs well in solving the problem of uncertainty. Based on DS evidence theory, this study analyzed the prediction of the network security situation, designed a prediction model based on the improved DS evidence theory, and carried out a simulation experiment. The experimental results showed that the improved method could predict accurately in the case of a large conflict, and had strong anti-jamming abilities as compared with the original method. The experimental results prove the effectiveness of the improved method in the prediction of the network security situation and provide some theoretical basis for the further application of DS evidence theory.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.94-99
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• 2015

Prediction algorithm of the energy storage system in accordance with the load pattern can cause economic loss in case of a failure prediction. In addition, algorithm that uses TOU(Time of Use) based on the revelation by the power electric charge which covers most simply is an inefficient operation because it is only for the purpose of reducing the peak power. In this paper, we introduced a non-prediction algorithm with a conventional TOU in order to solve this problem operating the energy storage system economic and efficient.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.95 no.5
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• pp.601-604
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• 2006

This study compared the accuracy of partial multivariate and vector autoregressive models for lumber demand prediction in Korea. The partial multivariate model has three explanatory variables; own price, construction permit area and dummy. The dummy variable reflected the boom of lumber demand in 1988, and the abrupt decrease in 1998. The VAR model consists of two endogenous variables, lumber demand and construction permit area with one lag. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated by Root Mean Squared Error. The results showed that the estimation by partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model showed similar explanatory power, and the prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.259-265
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• 2016

Recently, life prediction models for Pb-based and Pb-free solders used in chip resistor assemblies under thermal cycling have been introduced. The models suggest that the field lifetimes of Pb-free solders would be better than those of Pb-based solders when used for chip resistors under thermal cycling conditions, while the lifetime of the chip assemblies under accelerated test conditions show a reverse relationship. In this study, the prediction models were verified by applying the model to another research case. Finite element models were built, thermal cycling conditions were applied, and the energy densities were calculated. Finally, life prediction analysis was conducted for the cases where Pb-based and Pb-free solders were used. The prediction results were then compared with the test data of the case. It was verified that the predictions of the developed life cycle models are on the practical scale.