• Title/Summary/Keyword: Case Prediction

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Leg Fracture Recovery Monitoring Simulation using Dual T-type Defective Microstrip Patch Antenna (쌍 T-형 결함 마이크로스트립 패치 안테나를 활용한 다리 골절 회복 모니터링 모의실험)

  • Byung-Mun Kim;Lee-Ho Yun;Sang-Min Lee;Yeon-Taek Park;Jae-Pyo Hong
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.587-594
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we present the design and optimization process of an on-body microstrip patch antenna with a paired T-type defect for monitoring fracture recovery of human legs. This antenna is designed to be light, thin and compact despite the improvement of return loss and bandwidth performance by adjusting the size of the T-type defect. The structure around the applied human leg is structured as a 5-layer dielectric plane, and the complex dielectric constant of each layer is calculated using the 4-pole Cole-Cole model parameters. In a normal case without bone fracture, the return loss of the on-body antenna is -66.71dB at 4.0196GHz, and the return loss difference ΔS11 is 37.95dB when the gallus layer have a length of 10.0mm, width of 1.0mme, and height of 2.0mm. A 3'rd degree polynomial is presented to predict the height of the gallus layer for the change in return loss, and the polynomial has a very high prediction suitability as RSS = 1.4751, R2 = 0.9988246, P-value = 0.0001841.

Analysis of the Involving Mechanism of Kim Eun-Sook Drama : Focused on the Audience's Predictability and the Activities of Constructing Hypotheses (김은숙 드라마 <도깨비>의 몰입기제 구축과정 분석 - 관람자 예측성과 가설 구성 활동을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Eui-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2019
  • In the entertainment industry, risk management is crucial for securing competitiveness due to the risk of investment. The competitiveness of contents is reinforced when external factors such as industrial environment and internal factors centering on involving mechanism are simultaneously provided. The involving mechanism is a form of cognitive response behavior of the audience and occurs through signal processing of the brain when watching the image contents. The signal processing of the brain related to the contents watching is mainly performed in the working memory area, and in the case of the captivating movie, the information other than the contents transmitted to the audience is blocked to generate a temporary dissociation state. A dissociation state similar to a symptom such as hypnosis or amnesia occurs when the audience's level of involving is high. On the other hand, contents information in which the audience is concentrating his attention is used intensively for constructing future thinking through an episodic buffer while the inflow of external information is relatively blocked or delayed. The spectator's future thinking configuration takes the form of a hypothesis-forming activity and is based on the predictability of the brain. When these hypothesized behaviors correspond to the problem solving simulation of story and predictability which is an evolutionary function of the brain, the audience' s brain is involved in the contents at a high level. In order for the act to be effective, the factors such as the background of the hypothesis, the subject of the hypothesis, the internal information of the person, the type and position and quantity of the hypothesis information, and the hypothesis relevance and type of information are important. Based on these factors, analysis of the Kim Eun Sook Drama 'Goblin' shows that the above elements are operated in a very organic and meaningful way.

A Generalized Model for the Prediction of Thermally-Induced CANDU Fuel Element Bowing (CANDU 핵연료봉의 열적 휨 모형 및 예측)

  • Suk, H.C.;Sim, K-S.;Park, J.H.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.811-824
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    • 1995
  • The CANDU element bowing is attributed to actions of both the thermally induced bending moments and the bending moment due to hydraulic drag and mechanical loads, where the bowing is defined as the lateral deflection of an element from the axial centerline. This paper consider only the thermally-induced bending moments which are generated both within the sheath and the fuel and sheath by an asymmetric temperature distribution with respect to the axis of an element The generalized and explicit analytical formula for the thermally-induced bending is presented in con-sideration of 1) bending of an empty tube treated by neglecting the fuel/sheath mechanical interaction and 2) fuel/sheath interaction due to the pellet and sheath temperature variations, where in each case the temperature asymmetries in sheath are modelled to be caused by the combined effects of (i) non-uniform coolant temperature due to imperfect coolant mixing, (ii) variable sheath/coolant heat transfer coefficient, (iii) asymmetric heat generation due to neutron flux gradients across an element and so as to inclusively cover the uniform temperature distributions within the fuel and sheath with respect to the axial centerline. As the results of the sensitivity calculations of the element bowing with the variations of the parameters in the formula, it is found that the element bowing is greatly affected relatively with the variations or changes of element length, sheath inside diameter, average coolant temperature and its variation factor, pellet/sheath mechanical interaction factor, neutron flux depression factor, pellet thermal expansion coefficient, pellet/sheath heat transfer coefficient in comparison with those of other parameters such as sheath thickness, film heat transfer coefficient, sheath thermal expansion coefficient and sheath and pellet thermal conductivities.

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Estimate on the Self-Weight Consolidation of Dredging Coarse Soil with Segregating Sedimentation Properties (분리퇴적특성을 고려한 조립준설토의 자중압밀 침하량 평가)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Joo;Lee, Min-Sun;Paek, Pil-Soon;Jeon, Hye-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.22 no.12
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2006
  • In general, the dredged ground was composed of a big difference of sediment shape through segregating sedimentary of finer soil in case of reclaiming by dredged coarse soils. Therefore, this study was performed to evaluate the change of settling velocity of flow, and the density of sedimentary which is based on settling tests and self-weight consolidation tests, and consolidation test by seepage force according to the percentage of coarse of Kunsan dredge soils. The Yano's method has been applied to estimate the settlement of self-weight consolidation in finer soils at design but it only considers pouring water content and elevation of interface, therefore the other method needs to be introduced for the exact prediction of the settlement of coarse soil in which the segregation sedimentation is occurring. In this study, the settlement of self-weight consolidation was calculated by the change of the density of segregating sedimentary of coarse and finer soils which was analyzed by Yano's method to extend a serious of researches. The self-weight consolidation by Yano's method will not reflect the segregated settling in dredging coarse soil under 40% of #200 passing percentage. As a result, the evaluation technique of settlement of self-weight consolidation considering a change of the density of segregating sedimentary is suggested as a reasonable method that considers the sediment shape of coarse soil.

Prediction System for Turbidity Exclusion in Imha Reservoir (임하호 탁수 대응을 위한 예측 시스템)

  • Jeong, Seokil;Choi, Hyun Gu;Kim, Hwa Yeong;Lim, Tae Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.487-487
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    • 2021
  • 탁수는 유기물 또는 무기물이 유입되면서 빛의 투과성이 낮아진 수체를 의미한다. 탁수가 발생하게 되면 어류의 폐사, 정수처리 비용의 증가 및 경관의 변화로 인한 피해가 발생하게 된다. 국내에서는 홍수기 또는 태풍 시 유역의 토사가 저수지 상류에서 유입하여 호내의 탁수를 발생시키는 경우가 있는데, 특히 낙동강 유역의 임하호에서 빈번하게 고탁수가 발생하여 왔다. 본 연구에서는 임하호에서 탁수 발생 시 신속 배제를 위한 수치적인 예측 시스템을 소개하고자 한다. 저수지 탁수관리의 기본개념은 용수공급능력을 고려한 고탁수의 신속한 배제이다. 이는 선제적 의사결정을 요구하므로, 지류에서 탁수가 발생한 즉시 향후 상황에 대한 예측이 필요하다. 이러한 예측을 위해 유역관리처는 3단계의 수치해석을 수행한다. 첫 번째는 유역 상류에서 탁수가 감지되었을 때, 호 내 탁수의 분포를 예측하는 것이다. 수심 및 수평방향의 탁수 분포에 대한 상세한 결과가 도출되어야 하기에, 3차원 수치해석 프로그램인 AEM3D를 이용한다. 이때, 과거 고탁수 유입에 대한 자료를 기반으로 산정된 매개변수가 적용된다. 두 번째는 예측된 호내 분포를 초기조건으로 댐 방류량 및 취수탑 위치(선택배제)에 따른 탁수 배제 수치해석을 수행하게 된다. 다양하고 많은 case에 대한 신속한 모의 및 3달 이상의 장기간 예측을 요구하므로, 2차원 수치모델인 CE-QUAL-W2를 활용한다. 이 단계에서 수자원의 안정적 공급이 가능한 범위 내에서 효과적인 탁수 배제 방류 방법 등이 결정되며, 방류 탁도가 예측된다. 세 번째 단계는 방류탁도를 경계조건으로 하여 하류 하천(반변천~내성천 합류 전)의 탁도를 예측하는 것이다. 하천의 탁도 예측은 국내뿐만 아니라 국외에서도 그 사례를 찾아보기가 쉽지 않은데, 이는 중소형의 지류에 대한 입력자료가 충분하지 않고 불확실성이 높기 때문이다. 이에 과거 10여 년의 data를 이용한 회귀분석을 통해 탁수 발생물질(SS)-부유사-유량과의 관계를 도출하고, 2차원 하천모델(EFDC)을 이용하여 수심 평균 탁도를 예측하게 된다. 이러한 세 단계의 예측은 탁수가 호내로 유입됨에 따라 반복되고, 점차 예측 정확도가 향상되게 된다. 세 단계의 과정을 통한 임하호 탁수의 조기 배제는 현재 적지 않은 효과를 거두고 있다고 판단된다. 그러나 탁수를 발생시키는 현탁물질의 종류는 매번 일정하지 않기 때문에, 이러한 예측 시스템에 정확도에 영향을 줄 수 있으므로, 여러 상황을 고려한 딥러닝을 도입하여 탁수 물질에 대한 정보를 예측한다면 보다 합리적인 의사결정 지원 도구가 될 수 있을 것이다.

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Risk-based Profit Prediction Model for International Construction Projects (해외건설공사의 리스크 분석에 기초한 수익성 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Heon;Kim, Du-Yon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4D
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    • pp.635-647
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    • 2006
  • Korean construction companies first advanced to the international markets in 1960's and so far have brought more than 4,900 projects which account for 193 billion dollars approximately. With the large increase of national employment and income being followed by the achievement, Korea's construction industry has made an enormous contribution to the improvement of domestic economy for the last 40 years. However, recently the increased risk in international markets as well as the sharpening competition with foreign companies promising in terms of advanced technologies and low labor cost have been driving Korean construction away from the market shares. According to ENR (Engineering News Record, 1994~2003), it is revealed that 15.1% of top 225 global contractors are suffering from loss in international construction markets. This phenomenon is largely due to the highly uncertain characteristics of international projects, which are inherently exposed to various and complicated risky situations. Furthermore, especially for Korean construction companies, it is often the case that the failure in an international construction project cannot be offset by even a sufficient number of successful domestic achievements. Therefore, not only the selective screening among the nominated projects which have strong possibility of collapse but the systematic strategies for controlling potential risk factors are also considered indispensable in international construction portfolio management. The purpose of this study is to first analyze the causal relationships of the profit-influencing variables and the project success, and develop the profitability forecasting model in international construction projects.

Strength Prediction of PSC Box Girder Diaphragms Using 3-Dimensional Grid Strut-Tie Model Approach (3차원 격자 스트럿-타이 모델 방법을 이용한 PSC 박스거더 격벽부의 강도예측)

  • Park, Jung Woong;Kim, Tae Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.5A
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    • pp.841-848
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    • 2006
  • There is a complex variation of stress in PSC anchorage zones and box girder diaphragms because of large concentrated load by prestress. According to the AASHTO LFRD design code, three-dimensional effects due to concentrated jacking loads shall be investigated using three-dimensional analysis procedures or may be approximated by considering separate submodels for two or more planes. In this case, the interaction of the submodels should be considered, and the model loads and results should be consistent. However, box girder diaphragms are 3-dimensional disturbed region which requires a fully three-dimensional model, and two-dimensional models are not satisfactory to model the flow of forces in diaphragms. In this study, the strengths of the prestressed box girder diaphragms are predicted using the 3-dimensional grid strut-tie model approach, which were tested to failure in University of Texas. According to the analysis results, the 3-dimensional strut-tie model approach can be possibly applied to the analysis and design of PSC box girder anchorage zones as a reasonable computer-aided approach with satisfied accuracy.

Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use Change on Hydrology and Stream Water Quality of Anseongcheon Watershed Using SWAT Model (II) (SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화 및 토지이용 변화에 따른 안성천 유역 수문 - 수질 변화 분석 (II))

  • Lee, Yong Jun;An, So Ra;Kang, Boosik;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6B
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    • pp.665-673
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    • 2008
  • This study is to assess the future potential climate and land use change impact on streamflow and stream water quality of the study watershed using the established model parameters (I). The CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) CGCM2 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) based on IPCC SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) A2 and B2 scenarios were adopted for future climate condition, and the data were downscaled by Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Random Cascade Model technique. The future land use condition was predicted by using modified CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov chain) technique with the past time series of Landsat satellite images. The model was applied for the future extreme precipitation cases of around 2030, 2060 and 2090. The predicted results showed that the runoff ratio increased 8% based on the 2005 precipitation (1160.1 mm) and runoff ratio (65%). Accordingly the Sediment, T-N and T-P also increased 120%, 16% and 10% respectively for the case of 50% precipitation increase. This research has the meaning in providing the methodological procedures for the evaluation of future potential climate and land use changes on watershed hydrology and stream water quality. This model result are expected to plan in advance for healthy and sustainable watershed management and countermeasures of climate change.

A Prediction of the Land-cover Change Using Multi-temporal Satellite Imagery and Land Statistical Data: Case Study for Cheonan City and Asan City, Korea (다중시기 위성영상과 토지 통계자료를 이용한 토지피복 변화 예측: 천안시·아산시를 사례로)

  • KIM, Chansoo;PARK, Ji-Hoon;JANG, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.41-56
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    • 2011
  • This study analyzes the change in land-cover based on satellite imagery to draw up land-cover map in the future, and estimates the change in land category using statistical data of the land category. To estimate land category, this study applied the double exponentially smoothing method. The result of the land cover classification according to year using satellite imagery showed that the type with the largest increase in area of land cover change in the cities of Cheonan and Asan was artificial structure, followed by water, grass field and bare land. However forest, paddy, marsh and dry field were reduced. Further, the result of the time-series analysis of the land category was found to be similar to the result of the land cover classification using satellite imagery. Especially, the result of the estimation of the land category change using the double exponentially smoothing method showed that paddy, dry field, forest and marsh are anticipated to consistently decrease in area from 2010 to 2100, whereas artificial structure, water, bare land and grass field are anticipated to consistently increase. Such results can be utilized as basic data to estimate the change in land cover according to climate change in order to prepare climate change response strategies.

Error Characteristic Analysis and Correction Technique Study for One-month Temperature Forecast Data (1개월 기온 예측자료의 오차 특성 분석 및 보정 기법 연구)

  • Yongseok Kim;Jina Hur;Eung-Sup Kim;Kyo-Moon Shim;Sera Jo;Min-Gu Kang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.368-375
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we examined the error characteristic and bias correction method for one-month temperature forecast data produced through joint development between the Rural Development Administration and the H ong Kong University of Science and Technology. For this purpose, hindcast data from 2013 to 2021, weather observation data, and various environmental information were collected and error characteristics under various environmental conditions were analyzed. In the case of maximum and minimum temperatures, the higher the elevation and latitude, the larger the forecast error. On average, the RMSE of the forecast data corrected by the linear regression model and the XGBoost decreased by 0.203, 0.438 (maximum temperature) and 0.069, 0.390 (minimum temperature), respectively, compared to the uncorrected forecast data. Overall, XGBoost showed better error improvement than the linear regression model. Through this study, it was found that errors in prediction data are affected by topographical conditions, and that machine learning methods such as XGBoost can effectively improve errors by considering various environmental factors.