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Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.225-270
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    • 2008
  • We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

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The Effects of Tangible Asset Revaluation on the Market Prices (유형자산 재평가기업의 회계정보 가치관련성)

  • Kim, Dong-Heon
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2010
  • There have been arguments in Korea that fair value accounting system improves quality of accounting information through the asset revaluation. These arguments are based on the fact that investors prefer fair value to cost value information. Others argue that cost principles may offer more proper information to the investors because financial statements applied the cost principles are more objective and thus more reliable. Prior researches focused mainly on the motives of asset revaluation but I examined the effects of the tangible asset revaluation on the stock prices. The empirical findings indicate that : (1) the gains on the tangible asset revaluation are positively correlated with the stock prices; (2) the net book values applied the cost principles explain stock prices better than the net book values applied fair values. My findings suggest that the gains on the tangible asset revaluation constitute a part of the firms' values but the accounting informations measured fair value are not always useful to the investors in the capital market.

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A Study on Estimating the Optimum Proportion and Size of Basic Research Budget from an Economic Point of View (경제적 관점에서 본 기초연구예산의 적정 투자 비중과 규모 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Pak, Cheolmin;Ku, Bonchul
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.51-82
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    • 2017
  • In terms of both economic growth and social welfare, this paper discusses the optimal proportion and size of basic research budget by adding knowledge stock to an endogenous growth model. On the basis of the modified endogenous growth model, this paper derived an equation that consists of kinds of parameters and suggested this equation as a criterion for determining whether allocated basic research budget has been appropriate. This paper also found that the theoretical optimal ratio between government investment spending and investment in basic research is equal to the ratio between the partial elasticity of output with respect of public capital stock and the partial elasticity of output with respect of knowledge stock. In addition, after the required parameters were specified based on precedent literatures, this paper estimated an optimum size of the basic research budget using the theoretical optimal ratio with official statistical records and compared the estimated size to its actual size. This paper therefore is expected to contribute to budget planning and allocation regarding establishing basic research policy, because the results of this paper presents a useful criterion for optimum level and an approximate size of investment in basic research. However, it should be noted that although the optimal solution is optimal in a economic sense, it may not be the best solution from a practical perspective.

Determinants of Leverage for Manufacturing Firms Listed in the KOSDAQ Stock Market (한국 KOSDAQ 상장기업들의 자본구조 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Han-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.2096-2109
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    • 2012
  • This study investigates empirical issues that have received little attention in the previous research in the Korean capital market. It is to find any financial determinants on the capital structure for the firms listed in the KOSDAQ(Korea Securities Dealers Automated Quotation). Another test is performed to find any possible discriminating factors by utilizing a robust methodology, which may distinguish between the firms belonging the 'prime section' and the 'venture section' in terms of their financial aspects. Moreover, the null hypothesis that the changing trend or movement of a firm's capital structure with respect to its industry mean (or median) may be random, is also tested. For the book-value based debt ratios, size(INSIZE), growth(GROWTH), Market to book value of equity(MVBV), volatility(VOLATILITY), market value of equity (MVE) and section dummy (SECTION) showed their statistically significant effects on the book-value based leverage ratios, respectively, while size(INSIZE), growth(GROWTH), market value of equity(MVE), beta(BETA) and section dummy (SECTION) showed their statistically significant effects on the market-value based leverage ratios. This study also found an interesting result that a firm belonging to each corresponding industry has a tendency for reversion toward its mean and median leverage ratios over the five-year tested period.

Determinants on the Capital Structure of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in China (중국 중소기업의 자본구조 결정요인)

  • Yang, Zhen Tao;Park, Hee-Jung;Kang, Ho-Jung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.11
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    • pp.191-196
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    • 2013
  • The proportion of small and medium sized enterprises based on the number of corporations in China is 99%, the number of employees is 80%, and the proportion of GDP is 60%. These facts show that small and medium sized enterprises have an very significant effect on the economic growth of China. However, most of the researches conducted so far have studied large corporations, thus, there are relatively insufficient researches on the determinant of the capital structure of small and medium sized enterprises. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to confirm the factors that determine the capital structure of small and medium sized enterprises in China. To achieve this purpose, we performed multiple regression method to 45 small and medium sized manufacturing enterprises listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China. Results of this study are as follows. First, the growth appeared to have a significant positive effect to the debt ratio in 1% significance level. Second, the profitability appeared to have a significant negative effect to debt ratio in 1% significance level. Third, the firm size appeared to have no effect on the debt ratio. Fourth, the secured value and tax shield effect by non-debt appeared to have a weak positive effect on the debt ratio, however these variables showed statistical insignificant.

The impact of Workforce Aging on Labor Productivity: Using the Regional Panel Dataset in Korea (노동력 고령화가 노동 생산성에 미치는 영향 분석: 우리나라 지역별 패널통계 활용)

  • Jung, Yonghun;Lee, Seong-Hoon
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the effects of labor aging on labor productivity using panel statistics of 16 local governments from 1995 to 2017. The aging of the labor force, defined as the proportion of workers aged 60 or older in total employment, in the results of the panel regression analysis considering regional fixed effects and various adjustment variables, has a very consistent and significant negative effect on labor productivity. For every 1% increase in aging, labor productivity decreases by about 0.14 ~ 0.20%. In addition, the per capita capital stock and human capital considered as adjustment variables contributed to the increase of labor productivity, and the unemployment rate, which is a proxy variable of the economic fluctuation, has a significant negative effect on labor productivity as expected. The coefficient of the industrial structure, which represents the share of the service industry in the whole industry, was positive, but is not significant. The results of this study suggest that the design and construction of economic and educational policies that can maintain and expand human capital are necessary to curb the reduction in labor productivity expected by the aging workforce.

Exploring the Antecedents to Affect the Intention to Use of Mobile Banking (모바일뱅킹 사용의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 탐색)

  • Moon, Yun Ji
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.103-120
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as mobile banking enables to instantly provide the customized service in accordance with customer demand via information technology. With this individual customized service, mobile banking plays a role of transforming the existing offline banking strategies. However, contrary to expectation, the mobile banking service has not been widely used to the extent that it can replace offline banking service. Therefore, the current study aims to explore the antecedents to affect customer's usage of mobile banking. Specifically, the antecedents influencing the intention to use and actual usage of mobile banking include personal-innovation fit, positive psychological capital, and service quality factors, which reflect the innovative technology characteristics of mobile banking. Furthermore, the paper also analyzes the effect of mobile banking service on intention to use and actual usage of mobile banking service. With empirical analysis using Structural Equation Modeling for 195 mobile banking users, the results showed that user's ability fit, value fit, and positive psychological capital positively affected user's future intention to use and actual usage of mobile banking. Furthermore, the current paper also found the significant moderation effect of usage purpose of mobile banking (banking task and online stock exchange) in the relationship between positive psychological capital and intention to use. This study suggests that banks need to develop mobile banking services that reflect customer's IT usability as well as their pursuing purpose and value.

The Doubtful Existence of Resource Curse (자원의 저주에 대한 비판적 고찰)

  • Kim, Dong Koo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.215-250
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    • 2013
  • The term, "resource curse", is widely used to describe how countries rich in natural resources, such as oil, natural gas, and certain minerals, are unable to utilize that wealth to boost their economies. Contrary to previous research on the topic, this study has demonstrated that natural resources have a strong positive correlation with a country's economy. It likewise confirmed that this result is robust with broad sets of exogenous variables, and that the positive impact of natural resources on the economy remains significant with the inclusion of capital stock per worker. In this sense, it is doubtful that resource curse actually exists in the long-run. On the other hand, this study tested whether the quality of institutions has any relation with natural resource endowments if the positive effect of natural resource endowments on the gross domestic product (GDP) is adequately controlled for. In contrast to findings of Alexeev and Conrad (2009), if the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries are included, it seems that there might be a negative and statistically significant relationship between large endowments of natural resources and the quality of institutions. However, this negative relationship loses its significance and some positive albeit insignificant relationships are confirmed in a considerable number of cases when the FSU countries are excluded in the sample. That is, the negative relationship results from the inclusion of the FSU countries. This result is believed to happen by a temporary coincidence of events, a natural resource windfall and political and economic instability during the transition of the FSU countries. Therefore, the argument that resource abundance harms the institutional quality is confirmed to be a little groundless.

A Long Run Classical Model of Price Determination (한국(韓國)의 물가모형(物價模型))

  • Park, Woo-kyu;Kim, Se-jong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.3-26
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    • 1992
  • The pupose of this paper is to construct a price determination model of the Korean economy and to find out the propogation mechanism of monetary and fiscal policies. The model is a small-size macroeconometric model consisted of ten core equations : consumption, investment, exports, imports, consumer price index, wage rate, corporate bond rate, potential GNP, capital stock, and GNP identity. The model is a Keynesian model : consumer price index is determined by markup over costs, and wage rate is expressed by Phillipse curve ralation. Two features of the model, however, distinguish this model from other macroeconometric models of the Korean economy. First of all, the estimation of potential GNP and the capital stock is endogenized as suggested by Haque, Lahiri, and Montiel (1990). This allows us to calculate the level of excess demand, which is defined as the difference between the actual GNP and the potential GNP. Second, interest rate, inflation and wages are all estimated as endogenous variables. Moreover, all quantity variables include price variables as important determinants. For instance, interest rate is an important determinant of consumption and investment. Exports and imports are determined by the real effective exchange rate. These two features make the interactions between excess demand and prices the driving forces of this model. In the model, any shock which affects quantity variable(s) affects excess demand, which in turn affects prices. This strong interaction between prices and quantities makes the model look like a classical model over the long run. That is, increases in money supply, government expenditures, and exchange rate (the price of the U.S. dollar in terms of Korean won) all have expansionery effects on the real GNP in the short run, but prices, wage, and interest rate all increase as a result. Over the long run, higher prices have dampenning effects on output. Therefore the level of real GNP turns out to be not much different from the baseline level ; on the other hand, the rates of inflation, wage and interest rate remain at higher levels.

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Chinese Growth Enterprise Market and Business Performance Analysis on Small and Medium Sized Firms and Venture Firms Before and After Listing (중국의 창업판시장과 중소벤처기업의 상장전후 경영성과 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Cui, Wen;Sun, Zhong Yuan;Chang, Seog Ju
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2014
  • After global economic crisis, China has become one of the two pillars in the global economies and the country contributing to the Korean economy. Nevertheless, the research on Chinese financial market, particularly capital market, is rare to date. This study examined the growth enterprise market that emergedat the Shenzhen stock exchange and made comparative analysis on before and after listing for the Chinese small and medium sized firms and venture firms. The listing requirements at the Chinese growth enterprise market for the technologically innovative venture firms and fast-growing small and medium sized firms with financing purpose were more alleviated than the main board of Shenzhen stock exchange. Moreover, the listing procedures are simplified as well. Accordingly, many Chinese enterprises tend to list and the competition for listing is also intense. In particular, with the 36 initially listed firms at growth enterprise market as the research target, the investigation for the business performance before and after listing reveals that the three indexes including return on common equity, debt ratio and operating profit growth rate dropped dramatically for most all the firms. That is, the profitability and growth for the venture firms and small and medium sized firms listed on the Chinese growth enterprise market decreased rapidly after going public, only the stability improved due to the great financing. Taking a step forward, this phenomenon may result from the exaggerated reporting for the business performance before listing with the purpose of going public by the venture firms and small and medium sized firms. Thus, Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission should strengthen the accounting evaluation standard and regulation for the listing firms before going public. In addition, strict sanctions should be imposed on the firms with fraudulent accounting to establish healthy capital market.

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