• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.12
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• pp.1195-1205
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• 2018

In the study, the water shortage of Boryeong Dam watershed ($163.6km^2$) was evaluated under future climate change scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used considering future dam release derived from multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. The SWAT was calibrated and verified by using daily observed dam inflow and storage for 12 years (2005 to 2016) with average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.59 and 0.91 respectively. The monthly dam release by 12 years MLR showed coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of above 0.57. Among the 27 RCP 4.5 scenarios and 26 RCP 8.5 scenarios of GCM (General Circulation Model), the RCP 8.5 BCC-CSM1-1-M scenario was selected as future extreme drought scenario by analyzing SPI severity, duration, and the longest dry period. The scenario showed -23.6% change of yearly dam storage, and big changes of -34.0% and -24.1% for spring and winter dam storage during 2037~2047 period comparing with 2007~2016 period. Based on Runs theory of analyzing severity and magnitude, the future frequency of 5 to 10 years increased from 3 in 2007~2016 to 5 in 2037~2046 period. When considering the future shortened water shortage return period and the big decreases of winter and spring dam storage, a new dam operation rule from autumn is necessary for future possible water shortage condition.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.163-173
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• 2022

Climate change is a key factor that greatly influences changes in the biological seasons and geographical distribution of species. In the ecological field, the BioClimatic predictor (BioClim), which is most related to the physiological characteristics of organisms, is used for vulnerability assessment. However, BioClim values are not provided other than the future period climate average values for each GCM for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenario. In this study, BioClim data suitable for domestic conditions was produced using 1 km resolution SSPs scenario detailed data produced by Rural Development Administration, and based on the data, a species distribution model was applied to mainly grow in southern, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Gangwon-do and humid regions. Appropriate habitat distributions were predicted every 30 years for the base years (1981 - 2010) and future years (2011 - 2100) of the Acer pictum subsp. mono. Acer pictum subsp. mono appearance data were collected from a total of 819 points through the national natural environment survey data. In order to improve the performance of the MaxEnt model, the parameters of the model (LQH-1.5) were optimized, and 7 detailed biolicm indices and 5 topographical indices were applied to the MaxEnt model. Drainage, Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and Slope significantly contributed to the distribution of Acer pictum subsp. mono in Korea. As a result of reflecting the growth characteristics that favor moist and fertile soil, the influence of climatic factors was not significant. Accordingly, in the base year, the suitable habitat for a high level of Acer pictum subsp. mono is 3.41% of the area of Korea, and in the near future (2011 - 2040) and far future (2071 - 2100), SSP1-2.6 accounts for 0.01% and 0.02%, gradually decreasing. However, in SSP5-8.5, it was 0.01% and 0.72%, respectively, showing a tendency to decrease in the near future compared to the base year, but to gradually increase toward the far future. This study confirms the future distribution of vegetation that is more easily adapted to climate change, and has significance as a basic study that can be used for future forest restoration of climate change-adapted species.