• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.147-177
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• 2017

Although a number of empirical studies found that political ideology plays a significant role in Korean elections, they entirely rely on cross-sectional data analysis. In contrast to previous research, this study investigates the effects of ideology in the 2012 Korean presidential election through standard panel data analysis. Specifically, using "EAI Panel Study, 2012", the effects of ideology on both candidate evaluation and vote choice were examined via fixed effects, random effects, and pooled regression analysis. And the results from applying the two most popular models of ideological voting, the proximity model and the directional change model were also compared. The results show that candidate evaluations and vote choice during the election (April, 2012- December, 2012) were significantly influenced by the ideological difference between voters and candidates, independent from partisanship and other standard socio-demographic factors. And this ideological voting during the election seems better captured by the directional change model than by the proximity model.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.718-734
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• 2012

This study investigates the interference of politics of regional cleavage in the redistricting for national assembly election and its effects on gerrymandering and malapportionment. Since the Constitutional Assembly election, the argument about gerrymandering and malapportionment continues and the single-member election district with simple plurality system in Korea has aggravated the problem of cleavage and unfairness. Especially, redistrictings for national assembly election in 2008 and 2012 are suspected of gerrymandering by Saenuri party and Democratic United party. Yeongnam region where Saenuri party is dominant and Honam region where Democratic United party is, are over-represented compared to population, while the districts in Gyeonggi-do are under-represented and the need for increasing the number of districts has been ignored. These redistrictings might come from unfair and collusive interference of politics of regional cleavage, and consequently malapportionment has been brought about.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.55-66
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• 2010

Propensity score adjustment(PSA) has been suggested as approach to adjustment for volunteer internet survey. PSA attempts to decrease the biases arising from noncoverage and nonprobability sampling in volunteer panel internet surveys. Although PSA is an appealing method, its application for internet survey regarding Korea presidential election and its effectiveness is not well investigated. In this study, we compare the Ni Korea internet survey with the telephone survey conducted by MBMR and KBS for 2007 Korean presidential election. The result of study show that the accuracy of internet survey can be improved by using PSA. And it is critical to include covariates that highly related to the voting tendency and the role of nondemographic variables seems important to improving PSA for Korea presidential election prediction.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.31-38
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• 2018

Leading up to the 2019 presidential election in Indonesia, campaigns have emerged through social media, particularly Twitter, using various hashtags, such as #2019GantiPresiden (2019 Change President) and #TetapJokowi (Always Jokowi). This paper tries to understand the presidential candidates' power map in forming opinions and influencing voter behavior by analyzing Twitter from August 6, 2018 to September 15, 2018, just before the beginning of the official campaign period, by searching for the keyword "pemilihan presiden RI Tahun 2019" (RI presidential election in 2019). According to our NodeXL's analysis, there were 1,650 active Twitter users talking about the 2019 presidential election. The 1,650 Twitter users have formed a communication network of 46,750 relationships formed from messages in the form of tweets, comments, and retweets. Our analysis found that those mentioning "pilihan presiden 2019" form large communication networks around four clusters: one for each of the two candidates (Jokowi and Prabowo) and two for opinion leaders who are undecided about the election (Gus Mus and Mas Piyu). GusMus is a religious leader, as an official of the PBNU Rais Syuriah (an Islamic organization) and has a large following both on and off Twitter. "MasPiyu" is an unidentified Twitter user; he only has a large following on Twitter, but does not have support offline.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.87-95
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• 2016

Considerable research over the years has been devoted to ascertaining the impact of social media on political settings.In recent days, Social Network Sites (SNS) such as Facebook allowed users to share their political beliefs, support specific candidates, and interact with others on political issues. This study examines the role of SNS as the means of political campaign. The study tasks the case of the 2015'sspecial election, Seoul Korea. The analysis aims to identify how candidates use Facebook or Twitter to interact with voters by applying functional theory of political campaign discourse developed by Benoit. In this study, we analyzed the candidates' SNS messages in terms of political behavior such as self-expression, informing policy, asking voters to participate in political events. Among them the results indicated that two candidates, Jung, Dong Young and Byun, Hee Jae, both of them used SNS to express themselves the most. The study also found that two candidates used mainly the strategy called 'acclaim' which praises their own strengths. In terms of topics of SNS messages (policy versus character) there was different between two candidates. Jung, sent message in relation to 'character' the most, while Byun contained 'policy' message on SNS the most. Based on these findings implications and directions for future studies are discussed.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.147-179
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• 2018

Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, Jakarta's Ex-Governor, lost his re-election bid in 2017 and then was jailed on a charge of blasphemy. After his defeat, the rhetorics of Indonesian politics was divided into two opposing sides: anti-Communism and 'pribumi' of the radical Islamic movements and Pancasila of the Jokowi administration. Although Islamic political parties are now preoccupied with their own coalitional politics and survivals, rather than solidarity of Islamic forces, the rising Islamic sentiments confirmed by the Jakarta election indicate that religion will continue to be a key variable in Indonesian politics. Meanwhile, ex-military generals who declared themselves as candidates in the 2018 regional election and the 2019 presidential election, as well as a few measures used by the Jokowi administration against extra-parliamentary political opponents, remind us of Suharto's New Order. Steady growth continues in economy. The raise of minimum wage enlarged middle classes and led to a decline of the poverty rate. Jokowi's commitment to building infrastructure has made tangible achievements. Under these circumstances, enhanced cooperation between Indonesia and South Korea is laudable, though any such cooperation must fully incorporate local sociocultural contexts, such as the strengthened halal certification system.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.315-325
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• 2016

Thanks to the advantages of low cost and quick results, public opinion polls on election in Korea have been generally conducted by telephone survey, even though it has critical disadvantage of low response rate. In public opinion polls on election in Korea, the general method to handle nonresponses is adjusting the survey weight to estimate parameters. This study first drives mathematical expression of estimator and its bias with variance estimators with/without nonresponses in election polls in Korea. We also investigates the nonresponse rate of telephone survey on 2012 Korea presidential election. The average response rate was barely about 14.4%. In addition, we conducted a survey in April 2014 on the respondents's attitude toward telephone surveys. In the survey, the first reason for which respondents do not answer on public opinion polls on election was "feel bothered". And the aged 20s group, the most low response group, also gave the same answer. We here suggest that survey researchers motivate survey respondents, specially younger group, to participate surveys and find methods boosting response rate such as giving incentive.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.385-398
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• 2018

This study aims to explore implications by analyzing voters' behaviors and attitudes of political campaigns & political advertising audience in the 19th presidential election. For this purpose, in-depth interviews with 59 voters who voted in the last election were conducted, and interviewees were allocated by their gender and age. As a result, the motivation to ballot for a candidate was based on the candidates' political affiliations to a party, political inclinations, and election pledges. Voters also determined whom they would vote for after watching the final TV debate. The biggest issue of this election was to create jobs in the public sector, an economical issue. TV was the most trusted medium among the voters, and TV debates had the greatest influence in changing the minds of the voters. Voters thought that Shim, Sang Jung was the best on TV debates and that An, Chul Soo was the worst. Also, voters recalled An, Chul Soo the most among all election posters, but they recalled Moon, Jae In the most out of other political advertisement methods. Therefore, the results elucidated the voters' behaviors and the audience's attitudes in political advertising, and this study provided theoretical and practical implications to be utilized in future presidential election campaigns and political advertising endeavors.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.285-301
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• 2018

There have been many studies that applied a data-driven analysis method to social media data, and some have even argued that this method can replace traditional polls. However, some other studies show contradictory results. There seems to be no consensus as to the methodology of data collection and analysis. But as social media-based election research continues and the data collection and analysis methodology keep developing, we need to review the key points of the controversy and to identify ways to go forward. Although some previous studies have reviewed the strengths and weaknesses of the social media-based election studies, they focused on predictive performance and did not adequately address other studies that utilized social media to address other issues related with public opinion during elections, such as public agenda or information diffusion. This paper tries to find out what information we can get by utilizing social media data and what limitations social media data has. Also, we review the various attempts to overcome these limitations. Finally, we suggest how we can best utilize social media data in understanding public opinion during elections.