• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.189-195
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• 2024

The issue "Exploring Social Media and Other Crucial Success Elements of Attitude towards Politics and Intention for Voting in Pakistan" is a huge study embracing more issues. The politics of Pakistan is basically the politics of semantic groups. Pakistan is a multilingual state more than six languages. There are 245 religious parties in Pakistan, as elaborated by the Daily Times research. The use of social media sites in Pakistan peaked to its maximum after announcement of election schedule by the Election Commission of Pakistan in March 22, 2013. Most of the political parties used it for the recent elections in Pakistan to promote their agenda and attract country's 80 million registered electors. This study was aiming to investigate the role of social media and other critical variables in the attitude towards politics and intention for voting.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.375-385
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• 2009

For 2007 Korea presidential election, most polls by telephone surveys indicated Lee Myung-Bak led the second runner-up Jung Dong-Young by certain margin. The margin between two candidates can be estimated accurately by averaging individual poll results, provided there exists no systematic bias in telephone surveys. Most Korean telephone surveys via telephone directory are based on quota samples, with the region, the gender and the age-band as quota variables. Thus the surveys may result in certain systematic bias due to unbalanced factors inherent in quota sampling. The aim of this study is to answer the following questions by the analytic methods adopted in Huh et al. (2004): Question 1. Wasn't there systematic bias in estimates of support rates. Question 2. If yes, what was the source of the bias? To answer the questions, we collected eighteen surveys administered during the election campaign period and applied the iterated proportional weighting (the rim weighting) to the last eleven surveys to obtain the balance in five factors - region, gender, age, occupation and education level. We found that the support rate of Lee Myung-Bak was over-estimated consistently by 1.4%P and that of Jung Dong-Young was underestimated by 0.6%P, resulting in the over-estimation of the margin by 2.0%P. By investigating the Lee Myung-Bak bias with logistic regression models, we conclude that it originated from the under-representation of less educated class and/or the over-representation of house wives in telephone samples.

• Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.149-171
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• 2018

The aim of this study is to investigate the library related campaign promises of the candidates for the heads of metropolitan governments and the superintendents of education between 1st and 6th nationwide local election in Korea. To do this, the library related campaign promises of 346 candidates were analyzed by analysing the official gazettes for elections digitally archived in National Election Commission of Korea. As a result, the campaign promises of the candidates were insufficient both in quality and quantity. The candidates for the heads of metropolitan governments showed low ratio of the library related campaign promises, excessive concentration on construction or installation of libraries and higher preference for small libraries than public libraries. The candidates for the superintendents of education showed relatively balanced distribution of the election promises on library fields. But the campaign promises related public libraries were insufficient and the campaign promises of school libraries did not reflect the major elements of school libraries and the context of school libraries in Korea.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.29-40
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• 2019

Categorical data with non-responses are frequently observed in election poll surveys, and can be represented by incomplete contingency tables. To estimate supporting rates of candidates, the identification of the missing mechanism should be pre-determined because the estimates of non-responses can be changed depending on the assumed missing mechanism. However, it has been shown that it is not possible to identify the missing mechanism when using observed data. To overcome this problem, sensitivity analysis has been suggested. The previously proposed sensitivity analysis can be applicable only to two-way incomplete contingency tables with binary variables. The previous sensitivity analysis is inappropriate to use since more than two of the factors such as region, gender, and age are usually considered in election poll surveys. In this paper, sensitivity analysis suitable to an multi-dimensional incomplete contingency table is devised, and also applied to the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey data. As a result, the intervals of estimates from the sensitivity analysis include actual results as well as estimates from various missing mechanisms. In addition, the properties of the missing mechanism that produce estimates nearest to actual election results are investigated.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.39-66
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• 2018

This paper analyzes the structures and issues of 2018 Korean local elections based on the author's observations on the electoral processes. Even if this paper does not follow a traditional statistical method, it provides the interpretative meanings of 2018 local elections by utilizing an expert's observations of campaign processes. This result of 2018 election can be summarized into two analytical frames. In terms of electoral competition structure, three key factors, such as presidential approval rating, party competition structure, ideological spectrum, tend to affect the winning of governing party. In the light of election issue, the inter-Korean summit, the Washington-Pyeongyang summit, Incheon deprecating remark were positive to the vote gains of governing party, but the negative campaign, the drucking scandal and the swing voters were found not to be significant. The local election in Korea tends to show dual meanings, a proxy war of national-level politics and a composition process of local government. This paper found that the 2018 election has dual meanings at the same time, in a sense that it is the punishment of the ex-governing party's wrongdoing and the power change of local government.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.91-118
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• 2016

As all are aware, the results of the Malaysia 12th General Election (GE-12) in 2008 have surprised many. Not only the dominant parties Barisan Nasional (BN) were shocked by the loss of significant numbers of seats but for the first time in the history of Malaysia politics, vis-${\grave{a}}$-vis, electoral affairs, they were denied a two-thirds majority in the Parliament. Notwithstanding the opposition parties such as Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR: The People's Justice Party) that form the opposition coalition called Pakatan Rakyat (People's Alliance: PR), has come to a surprised with the GE-12 result, in which they not even think that were able to challenge hegemonic politics of BN, managed to capture and formed a government at the state level namely Kedah, Penang, Perak, and Selangor, except Kelantan which has been under the control of PAS since the 1990 general election. This article aims to analyze whether Sabah as a "fixed deposit"state is still relevant in understanding the continuity and survival of the BN political hegemony in the context of Malaysia political developments post-13th general election.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.153-162
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• 2012

We proposed a mixed-mode design with a landline survey and mobile survey as the solution for the problems of election opinion polls by the original telephone survey method, mostly with limited population coverage for young people not living at home and with lower efficiency in selecting valid voters. We numerically verified the applicability of the proposed dual frame survey by analyzing the preliminary opinion poll results of the Seoul mayor by-election of October 26 2011. This research achieved the result that relative standard errors were similar between a mobile RDD sample and landline RDD sample though the variance was bigger in the former. Though the combination of mobile RDD and landline RDD is not found to improve the forecast accuracy, it still is expected to have higher reliability for election polls by expanding the population coverage and compensating the weakness of each survey method.

• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.183-203
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• 1996

When dealing with a Lie group or, in general, with an analytic loop or quasigroup, its symmetry is broken by the election of the distinguished identity element.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.26 no.12
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• pp.1800-1808
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• 2022

During the election period, many polling agencies survey and distribute the approval ratings for each candidate. In the past, public opinion was expressed through the Internet, mobile SNS, or community, although in the past, people had no choice but to survey the approval rating by relying on opinion polls. Therefore, if the public opinion expressed on the Internet is understood through natural language analysis, it is possible to determine the candidate's approval rate as accurately as the result of the opinion poll. Therefore, this paper proposes a method of inferring the approval rate of candidates during the election period by synthesizing the political comments of users through internet community posting data. In order to analyze the approval rate in the post, I would like to suggest a method for generating the model that has the highest correlation with the actual opinion poll by using the KoBert, KcBert, and KoELECTRA models.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.199-219
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• 2018

With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.