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지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구 (A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems)

  • 김선웅
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • 학계와 금융파생상품 가격결정이나 변동성매매와 같은 실무영역 모두에서 주식시장의 변동성은 중요한 역할을 한다. 본 연구는 GARCH 모형에 기초하여 한국주식시장의 변동성을 정확히 예측함으로써 변동성매매시스템의 성과를 높일 수 있는 새로운 방법을 제시하였다. 특히, 여러 연구 자료에서 밝혀지고 있는 변동성 비대칭성개념을 도입하였다. 최근 새로 개발된 한국주식시장 변동성 지수인 VKOSPI를 변동성 대용값으로 사용한다. VKOSPI는 KOSPI 200 지수옵션의 가격을 이용하여 계산된 값으로서 옵션딜러들의 변동성 예측치를 반영하고 있다. KOSPI 200 옵션시장은 1997년 시작되었으며, 발전을 거듭하여 현재 하루 거래량이 1,000만 계약을 넘어서면서 세계 최고의 지수옵션시장으로 발전하였다. 이러한 옵션시장에 반영된 변동성을 분석하는 것은 투자자들에게 좋은 투자정보를 제공하게 될 것이다. 특히, 변동성 대용값으로 VKOSPI를 사용하면 다른 변동성 대용치를 사용할 때 발생하는 통계적 추정의 문제를 피해 갈 수 있다. 본 연구는 2003년부터 2006년의 KOSPI 200 지수 일별자료를 대상으로 최우도추정방법(MLE)을 이용하여 GARCH 모형을 추정한다. 비대칭 GARCH 모형으로는 Glosten, Jagannathan, Runke의 GJR-GARCH 모형, Nelson의 EGARCH 모형, 그리고 Ding, Granger, Engle의 PARCH모형을 포함하며 대칭 GARCH 모형은 (1, 1) GARCH 모형을 이용한다. 2007년부터 2009년까지의 KOSPI 200 지수 일별자료를 대상으로 반복적 계산과정을 통해 내일의 변동성 예측값과 오르고 내리는 변화방향을 예측하였다. 분석 결과 시장변동성과 예기치 않은 주가변동 사이에는 음의 상관관계가 존재하며, 음의 주가변동은 동일한 크기의 양의 주가변동보다 훨씬 더 큰 변동성의 증가를 가져옴을 알 수 있다. 즉, 한국 주식시장에도 변동성 비대칭성이 존재함을 보여주었다. GARCH 모형을 이용하여 내일의 VKOSPI의 등락방향을 예측하고 이를 이용하여 변동성 매매시스템을 개발하였다. 내일의 변동성이 상승할 것으로 예측되면 스트래들매수전략을 이용하고 반대로 변동성이 하락할 것으로 예측되면 스트래들 매도전략을 이용한다. 변동성의 변화방향성을 맞춘 경우에는 VKOSPI 변동분을 더하고 틀린 경우에는 변동분을 뺀 누적합을 이용하여 변동성매매전략의 총수익을 계산한다. 모형추정용 자료구간의 경우 통계적 기준인 MSPE 기준으로는 PARCH 모형의 적합도가 가장 높고, 예측방향의 적중도를 재는 MCP 기준으로는 EGARCH 모형이 가장 높은 값을 보여주었다. 테스트용 자료구간의 경우에는 PARCH 모형이 모형적합도와 내일의 변동성 등락방향 예측에서 가장 좋은 결과를 보여주었다. 모형추정용 자료구간의 경우 GARCH 모형 전체에서 매매이익을 기록하고 있고 테스트용 자료구간의 경우에는 EGARCH 모형을 제외한 GARCH 모형들이 매매이익을 보여주었다. 본 연구에서 나타난 변동성의 군집과 비대칭성 현상으로부터 변동성에 비선형성이 존재함을 알 수 있었으며, 비선형성에서 좋은 결과를 보이고 있는 인공지능시스템과 비대칭 GARCH 모형을 결합한다면 제안된 변동성매매시스템의 성과를 많이 개선할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

가계 식품수요 요인의 계량분석 - 한국과 일본의 비교 - (Econometric Analysis on Factors of Food Demand in the Household : Comparative Study between Korea and Japan)

  • 조광현
    • 한국식생활문화학회지
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.371-383
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    • 1999
  • 본 논문은 한일 양국의 가계에 있어서의 식품수요에 미치는 요인을 파악하기 위해서 종래의 수요모델에 코호트(cohort, 행동을 같이 한 집합체) 분석적인 생각을 도입하여 한일 양국의 식품수요 형태분석을 하였다. 여기에 제시한 새로운 수요분석 모델은 소비지출과 가격이 식료수요에 미치는 경제적 효과 이외에 세대주 연령효과나 출생연도와 같은 비경제적효과 등도 계량한 것이 특징이다. 분석한 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 1. 한일 양국의 식품수요의 품목군별 탄력성을 보면 유지류, 음료, 조리식품의 수요탄력성은 한국보다 일본이 더 탄력적이었지만, 다른 모든 품목은 일본보다 한국이 탄력적이었다. 곡류, 육류, 외식의 외부화 식품의 소비지출과 가격탄력성은 한국의 큰 품목과 일본의 큰 품목이 서로 상충하고 있어서 일정한 경향 파악이 곤란하다. 그러나 신선식품에 대한 소비지출과 가격의 탄력성은 모두 일본보다 한국이 크다. 2. 식품에 대한 지출액은 세대 구성원의 연령을 반영하여 비교하여 볼 때 한국과 일본의 결과가 비슷하였다. 즉 세대주 연령이 젊은 계층의 가족에는 유아가 있기 때문에 유란류의 지출액이, 또한 중년층에서는 청소년이 많기 때문에 과자류의 지출액이 다른 연령계층에 비하여 많았다. 한국은 연령계층이 높을수록 2세대 가족이 많기 때문에 다수 품목에 지출액이 많고, 일본의 중년층은 과자류를 포함하여 특히 곡류, 육류 등의 에너지 식품이나 외식의 지출액이 많다. 그러나 연령이 높은 계층에서는 세대 구성원이 거의 성인이며 평균연령이 높기 때문에 곡류, 육류, 외식 등의 지출액이 적었지만 어패류, 야채류 등의 전통식품이나 조리식품의 지출이 많았다. 3. 식품소비의 패턴은 세대주 출생연도별로 비교하면 한일 양국 모두 구세대일수록 주식 중시의 경향을 나타내고 신세대일수록 축산물, 유지류, 외부화 식품의 비중이 높았다. 그러나 품목 구성의 세대간 차이는 한국에 있어서는 매우 크지만 일본의 경우는 비교적 작았다. 따라서 식생활의 서구화, 외부화는 세대교체에 동반하여 한국에는 급속히 진행하지만 일본은 점진적으로 진행한다고 볼 수 있다. 4. 가계 식품 수요의 장기 변화에 미치는 요인은 소비지출, 가격, 세대주 출생연도, 연령 등의 네 가지 요인으로 나누어서 각각의 효과를 요인간으로 비교하면 한일 양국이 함께 가격의 효과가 가장 작다. 그러나 그 이외 요인별 효과의 상대적 중요성은 양국간에 다른데 한국은 소비지출의 효과가 출생연도나 연령 효과보다 크지만 일본은 경제적 요인인 소비지출보다 세대주의 출생연도나 연령 등의 비경제적 요인의 효과가 크다.

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광주시 대기오염물질 배출량 변화추이에 관한 연구 (A study on the air pollutant emission trends in Gwangju)

  • 서광엽;신대윤
    • 환경위생공학
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2009
  • We conclude the following with air pollution data measured from city measurement net administered and managed in Gwangju for the last 7 years from January in 2001 to December in 2007. In addition, some major statistics governed by Gwangju city and data administered by Gwangju as national official statistics obtained by estimating the amount of national air pollutant emission from National Institute of Environmental Research were used. The results are as follows ; 1. The distribution by main managements of air emission factory is the following ; Gwangju City Hall(67.8%) > Gwangsan District Office(13.6%) > Buk District Office(9.8%) > Seo District Office(5.5%) > Nam District Office(3.0%) > Dong District Office(0.3%) and the distribution by districts of air emission factory ; Buk District(32.8%) > Gwangsan District(22.4%) > Seo District(21.8%) > Nam District(14.9%) > Dong District(8.1%). That by types(Year 2004~2007 average) is also following ; Type 5(45.2%) > Type 4(40.7%) > Type 3(8.6%) > Type 2(3.2%) > Type 1(2.2%) and the most of them are small size of factory, Type 4 and 5. 2. The distribution by districts of the number of car registrations is the following ; Buk District(32.8%) > Gwangsan District(22.4%) > Seo District(21.8%) > Nam District(14.9%) > Dong District(8.1%) and the distribution by use of car fuel in 2001 ; Gasoline(56.3%) > Diesel(30.3%) > LPG(13.4%) > etc.(0.2%). In 2007, there was no ranking change ; Gasoline(47.8%) > Diesel(35.6%) > LPG(16.2%) >etc.(0.4%). The number of gasoline cars increased slightly, but that of diesel and LPG cars increased remarkably. 3. The distribution by items of the amount of air pollutant emission in Gwangju is the following; CO(36.7%) > NOx(32.7%) > VOC(26.7%) > SOx(2.3%) > PM-10(1.5%). The amount of CO and NOx, which are generally generated from cars, is very large percentage among them. 4. The distribution by mean of air pollutant emission(SOx, NOx, CO, VOC, PM-10) of each county for 5 years(2001~2005) is the following ; Buk District(31.0%) > Gwangsan District(28.2%) > Seo District(20.4%) > Nam District(12.5%) > Dong District(7.9%). The amount of air pollutant emission in Buk District, which has the most population, car registrations, and air pollutant emission businesses, was the highest. On the other hand, that of air pollutant emission in Dong District, which has the least population, car registrations, and air pollutant emission businesses, was the least. 5. The average rates of SOx for 5 years(2001~2005) in Gwangju is the following ; Non industrial combustion(59.5%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(20.4%) > Road transportation(11.4%) > Non-road transportation(3.8%) > Waste disposal(3.7%) > Production process(1.1%). And the distribution of average amount of SOx emission of each county is shown as Gwangsan District(33.3%) > Buk District(28.0%) > Seo District(19.3%) > Nam District(10.2%) > Dong District(9.1%). 6. The distribution of the amount of NOx emission in Gwangju is shown as Road transportation(59.1%) > Non-road transportation(18.9%) > Non industrial combustion(13.3%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(6.9%) > Waste disposal(1.6%) > Production process(0.1%). And the distribution of the amount of NOx emission from each county is the following ; Buk District(30.7%) > Gwangsan District(28.8%) > Seo District(20.5%) > Nam District(12.2%) > Dong District(7.8%). 7. The distribution of the amount of carbon monoxide emission in Gwangju is shown as Road transportation(82.0%) > Non industrial combustion(10.6%) > Non-road transportation(5.4%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(1.7%) > Waste disposal(0.3%). And the distribution of the amount of carbon monoxide emission from each county is the following ; Buk District(33.0%) > Seo District(22.3%) > Gwangsan District(21.3%) > Nam District(14.3%) > Dong District(9.1%). 8. The distribution of the amount of Volatile Organic Compound emission in Gwangju is shown as Solvent utilization(69.5%) > Road transportation(19.8%) > Energy storage & transport(4.4%) > Non-road transportation(2.8%) > Waste disposal(2.4%) > Non industrial combustion(0.5%) > Production process(0.4%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(0.3%). And the distribution of the amount of Volatile Organic Compound emission from each county is the following ; Gwangsan District(36.8%) > Buk District(28.7%) > Seo District(17.8%) > Nam District(10.4%) > Dong District(6.3%). 9. The distribution of the amount of minute dust emission in Gwangju is shown as Road transportation(76.7%) > Non-road transportation(16.3%) > Non industrial combustion(6.1%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(0.7%) > Waste disposal(0.2%) > Production process(0.1%). And the distribution of the amount of minute dust emission from each county is the following ; Buk District(32.8%) > Gwangsan District(26.0%) > Seo District(19.5%) > Nam District(13.2%) > Dong District(8.5%). 10. According to the major source of emission of each items, that of oxides of sulfur is Non industrial combustion, heating of residence, business and agriculture and stockbreeding. And that of NOx, carbon monoxide, minute dust is Road transportation, emission of cars and two-wheeled vehicles. Also, that of VOC is Solvent utilization emission facilities due to Solvent utilization. 11. The concentration of sulfurous acid gas has been 0.004ppm since 2001 and there has not been no concentration change year by year. It is considered that the use of sulfurous acid gas is now reaching to the stabilization stage. This is found by the facts that the use of fuel is steadily changing from solid or liquid fuel to low sulfur liquid fuel containing very little amount of sulfur element or gas, so that nearly no change in concentration has been shown regularly. 12. Concerning changes of the concentration of throughout time, the concentration of NO has been shown relatively higher than that of $NO_2$ between 6AM~1PM and the concentration of $NO_2$ higher during the other time. The concentration of NOx(NO, $NO_2$) has been relatively high during weekday evenings. This result shows that there is correlation between the concentration of NOx and car traffics as we can see the Road transportation which accounts for 59.1% among the amount of NOx emission. 13. 49.1~61.2% of PM-10 shows PM-2.5 concerning the relationship between PM-10 and PM-2.5 and PM-2.5 among dust accounts for 45.4%~44.5% of PM-10 during March and April which is the lowest rates. This proves that particles of yellow sand that are bigger than the size $2.5\;{\mu}m$ are sent more than those that are smaller from China. This result shows that particles smaller than $2.5\;{\mu}m$ among dust exist much during July~August and December~January and 76.7% of minute dust is proved to be road transportation in Gwangju.

한국(韓國)에 있어서 항공안전인(航空運送人)의 민사책임(民事責任)에 관한 국내입법(國內立法)의 제문제(諸問題) ${\sim}$각국(各國)의 입법례(立法例)를 중심(中心)으로 하여${\sim}$ (Domestic Legislative Problems on the Civil Liability of Air Carrier in Korea Focus on the Example of Every Countries' Legislation)

  • 김두환
    • 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.9-53
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    • 2004
  • 한국(韓國)과 일본(日本)의 항공법(航空法)은 주로 공법적(公法的)및 행정규제적(行政規制的)인 규정(規定)들로 조성(構成)되어 있음으로 항공기사고가 발생하였을 때에 항공안전인(航空運送人)의 손해배상책임(損害暗慣責任)의 한계(限界), 배상가액(暗慣價額) 책임소멸시기(責任消滅時期), 재판관할지(裁判管轄地 )등을 규정하는 사법적(私法的)인 규정은 한 조문도 들어가 있지 않음으로 손해배상청구사건(損害暗慣請求事件)을 처리히는데 있어 재판의 기준이 없어 항공소송사건(航空訴認事件)의 해결은 지연되고 있어 당사자(當事者)간(원(原) 피고(被告)간)의 분쟁은 더욱 심화되고 있는 것이 오늘날의실정이다. 국제항공안전(國際航空運送)의 사법적(私法的)인 법률관계는 바르샤바조약(條約) 헤이그의정서(議定書), 과다하라조약(條約), 1966년(年)의 몬트리올 항공사(航空社)간의 협정(協定), 몬트리올3개 추가의정석(追加議定書)와 몬트리올 제(第)4의정석(議定書), 몬트리올조약(條約)및 개정(改正)로마조약(條約) 등에 의하여 어느 정도 해결될 수 있지만 국내항공안전(國內航空運送)의 사법적(私法的)인 법률관계에 대하여서는 한국(韓國)과 일본(日本)은 법률에 아무런 규정이 없음으로 항공운송약관(航空運送約款)또는 민상법(民商法)등에 의하여 처리되고 있다. 그러나 항공운송약관(航空運送約款)의 일부조항이 무효결정(無效決定)또는 무효판정(無效判決)이 선고되어 문제가 제기된바 있다. 이와 같은 문제점을 해결하기 위하여서는 항공기사건(航空機事故)에 의한 분쟁당사자 간의 책임한계(責任限界)를 정하여 재판(裁判)의 기준을 정하기 위한 법을 만들어 재판(裁判)의 공정성, 신속성, 간편성을 도모할 수 있는 항공운송인(航空運送人)의 책임에 관한 국내입법으로 "항공운송법(航空運送法)"의 제정(制定)이 무엇보다도 필요하다고 본다. 이와 같은 문제의 해결과 가해자(加害者)와 피해자(被害者)간의 책임한계(責任限界)를 명확하게 정하기 위하여 현행(現行) 상법(商法)또는 항공법(船空法)을 개정하여 항공운송인(航空運送人)의 민사책임에 관한 규정을 삽입하는 것이 오랜 시일이 소요되어 가능하지 않을 때에는 신속한 해결을 위하여 항공가사건(航空機事件)의 분쟁당사자간의 책임한계(責任限界)및 법률관계(法律關係)를 규정한 새로운 "항공운송법(航空運送法)"을 특별법의 형태로 입법하는 것이 바람직하다고 본다. 이와 같은 점을 고려하여 이 논문(論文)에서는 우리나라 항공운송(航空運送)의 현황과 항공운송인(航空運送人)의 민사책임(民事責任)에 관한 세계각국(世界各國)의 입법예(立法例) ((1)영국(英國), (2)미국(美國), (3)캐나다, (4)유럽연합(聯合)(EU), (5)독일(獨逸), (6)프랑스, (7)이탈리아, (8)스페인, (9)스위스, (10)오스트레일리아, (11)일본(日本), (12)중국(中國), (13)대만(臺灣), 북한(北韓))에 관한 내용(內容)을 분석(分析) 소개(紹介)한 후 우리나라 항공운송인(航空運送人)의 책임(責任)에 관한 운송약관(運送約款)의 문제점, 그 동안의 항공안전법계약법할안(航空運送法契約法試案)의 퇴진경위(推進經緯)와 항공운송인(航空運送人)에 대한 운송계약책임(運送契約責任)과 불법행위책임(不法行爲責任)등 둘 다 포함시킨 새로운 "항공운송법(航空運送法)"의 입법(立法)의 필요성(必要性)과 이유(理由)등 입법론(立法論)을 제시하였다. 앞으로 이 입법론(立法論)에 따라 항공안전법계약법시안(航空運送法契約法試案)을 작성할 때에 규정할 주(主)된 내용(內容)은, (1)이 법(法)의 입법목적(立法目的), (2)적용범위(適用範圍), (3)"항공수화물(航空手倚物)", "항공화물(船空貨物)", "항공운송(航空運送)", "항공운송인(航空運送人)", "항공사고(航空事故)", "계산단위(計算單位)(SDR)" 등의 개념정립, (4)여객항공권(旅客械空卷), 수화물표(手倚物票)또는 항공운송상(航空運送狀)의 기재사항, (5)항공운송인(航空運送人)의 책임원칙(責任原則)및 책임원칙(責任原則) (6)피의자(被害者)의 기여과실(寄與過失)에 기인되는 항공운송인(航空運送人)의 책임감면, (7)면책특약(免責特約)의 금지, (8)항공운송인(航空運送人)의 책임한도(責任限度)의 적용배제(wilful misconduct), (9)소(訴)의 명의(名義), (10)순차운송)(順次運送)의 법률관계, (11)운송인(運送人)의 사용인(이행보조자)에 대한 책임, (12)수화물(手倚物)및 화물(貨物)의 멸실 등의 통지의무, (13)항공운송인(航空運送人)에 대한 소(訴)를 제기(提起)하는 기한(期限), (14)계약운송인이외(契約運送人以外)의 실제운송인(實際運送人)에 의하여 행하여진 항공운송(航空運送)의 법률관계(實際運送人의 책임(責任)등), (15)항공기(航空機)의 추락 또는 파편의 낙하에 의한 지상(地上)제(第)3자(者)에게 입힌 인적(人的)또는 물적손해(物的揚害)에 대한 배상책임 불범행위책임(不法行寫責任)등), 항공운송상(航空運送狀)또는 화물손해(貨物損害)에 관한 추정적효력(prima facie evidence)의 인정, 항공화물(航空貨物)의 처분청구권의 인정, 제(第)3자(者)에 대한 청구권(구상권(求償權)), 전도금(前渡金)의 지급, 부합운송(複合運送), 중재제도(仲裁制度)의 도입, 항공보험(航空保險), 재판관할지(裁判管轄地), 항공운송인(航空運送人)에 대한 제소(提訴)의 소멸시기(消滅時期)(제척(除斥)) 등이 있다.

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인터넷 점포에서의 구매후기 작성 동기 및 점포 고객 유형화 (Motives for Writing After-Purchase Consumer Reviews in Online Stores and Classification of Online Store Shoppers)

  • 홍희숙;류성민
    • 한국유통학회지:유통연구
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.25-57
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구에서는 인터넷 점포에서 의류상품 구매후기를 작성하는 동기의 유형을 규명하는 한편 작성 동기 유형에 따라 인터넷 점포 고객들을 범주화하고, 각 집단의 작성행동, 인터넷 구매 행동, 인구사회적 특성의 차이를 규명하였다. 초점집단 면접과 온라인 서베이를 통해 연구되었으며, 정량적 연구에서는 의류상품 구매후기를 읽은 경험과 작성한 경험이 많은 국내 인터넷 점포 여성 고객 252명을 대상으로 자료가 수집되었다. 연구결과, 인터넷 점포에서 구매후기를 작성하는 동기 유형은 이타적 정보 공유, 불만해소 및 보복, 경제적 보상 추구, 상품 개발 지원, 감동 표현으로 나타났다. 특히, 작성행동에 대한 영향력이 큰 동기는 이타적 정보 공유 동기와 경제적 보상 추구 동기였다. 인터넷 점포 고객은 작성동기 유형에 따라 소비자 옹호 집단, 이익 추구 집단, 중도적 집단으로 범주화되었으며, 세 집단은 구매후기 작성행동, 인터넷 구매빈도, 인구사회적 요인들에서 차별적 특성을 보였다. 소비자 옹호 집단과 이익 추구 집단을 대상으로 인터넷 점포 구전 채널 관리 방안이 제시되었다.

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우리나라 장수자(長壽者)의 생활(生活) 및 의식조사(意識調査)에 관한 연구(硏究) -V. 과거(過去)의 건강질병(健康疾病) 및 고통(苦痛)에 대한 태도(態度)- (Investigations on Daily Life and Consciousness of Longevous People in Korea -V. The Attitute on the Health, Disease and Suffering of Longevous people in the Past-)

  • 최진호;변재형;최재수;임채환;김수현;김정한;이병호;우순임;최선남;변대석;김무남
    • 한국식품영양과학회지
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.287-293
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    • 1987
  • 우리나라 장수자(長壽者)의 생활(生活) 및 의식조사연구(意識調査硏究)의 일환(一環)으로 장수자(長壽者)의 과거(過去)의 건강(健康), 질병(疾病) 및 고통(苦痛)에 대한 대처태도(對處態度) 등을 조사(調査) 비교(比較)한 결과(結果)는 다음과 같다. 1. 갱년기(更年期)($40{\sim}60$세(歲))의 건강상태(健庶狀態)가 ${\ulcorner}$대단히 건강했다${\lrcorner}$가 71.0%로 가장 많고, 그 다음이 ${\ulcorner}$건강이 보통이었다${\lrcorner}$가 21.6%로서, 전체 장수자의 91.6%가 보통이상의 건강상태를 유지했다. 2. 노년기(老年期)에 접어든 후 질병(疾病)이나 부상(負傷)을 당한경험(經驗)이 ${\ulcorner}$없었다${\lrcorner}$고 대답한 경우가 74.7%로 대부분을 차지한 반면 ${\ulcorner}$있었다${\lrcorner}$고 대답한 경우는 22.6%에 불과했다. 3. 질병(疾病)이나 부상(負傷)이 ${\ulcorner}$있었다${\lrcorner}$고 한 경우의 내석(內讀)을 비교(比較)하여 보면 ${\ulcorner}$소화기질병(肖化器疾患)${\lrcorner}$이 32.6%로 가장 많고, 그 다음이 ${\ulcorner}$뇌졸중(腦卒中) 고혈압(高血壓)${\lrcorner}$ 14.0%, ${\ulcorner}$심장병(心臟病)${\lrcorner}$ 14.0%, ${\ulcorner}$호흡기질환(呼吸器疾患)${\lrcorner}$ 12.8%의 순으로 되어있었다. 4. 고통(苦痛)에 대한 경험(經驗)을 조사(調査)하여 본 결과(結果), 고통(苦痛)이 ${\ulcorner}$없었다${\lrcorner}$가 55.7%, ${\ulcorner}$있었다${\lrcorner}$가 44.3%로 거의 비슷한 경향(傾向)이었고, 고통(苦痛)에 대한 경험내독(經驗內譯)을 보면 ${\ulcorner}$가정생활${\lrcorner}$이 81.1%로 대부분을 차지한 반면 ${\ulcorner}$사업${\lrcorner}$ 등은 10. l%에 불과해서 가정생활에 많은 문제가 있었음을 알 수 있었다. 5. 고통(苦痛)에 대한 대처태도(對處態度)를 비교(比較)하여 보면 빨리 ${\ulcorner}$잊을려고 노력(努力)했다${\lrcorner}$가 51.2%로 가장 많았고 그 다음이 ${\ulcorner}$계속 걱정을 했다${\lrcorner}$(33.3%), ${\ulcorner}$걱정을 하지 않았다${\lrcorner}$(7. 1)의 순이었다. 6. 장수(長壽)한 사람들의 초경년령(初經年齡)은 ${\ulcorner}$$16{\sim}18$세(歲)${\lrcorner}$가 38.8%로 가장 많고, 그 다음이 ${\ulcorner}$l9세(歲)이후${\lrcorner}$가 25.2%로서 전체 장수자의 64.0%가 16세이상에서 초경(初經)이 나타났으며, 폐경년령(閉經年齡)은 ${\ulcorner}$$41{\sim}43$세(歲)${\lrcorner}$가 36.4%로 가장 많고, 그 다음이 ${\ulcorner}$$44{\sim}46$세(歲)${\lrcorner}$가 28.5%로서 전체 장수자의 64.9%가 46세(歲)이하에서 폐경현상(閉經現象)이 나타났다. 따라서 장수한 사람들의 초경년령(初經年齡)은 현재보다 $4{\sim}5$년(年) 늦은 반면 폐경년령(閉經年齡)은 현재보다 $4{\sim}5$년(年) 빨랐음을 알 수 있었다.

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유통업체의 위치기반 모바일 쇼핑서비스 제공에 대한 소비자 반응 : PAD 감정모델과 정보의 상황관련성을 중심으로 (Consumer Responses to Retailer's Location-based Mobile Shopping Service : Focusing on PAD Emotional State Model and Information Relevance)

  • 이현화;문희강
    • 한국유통학회지:유통연구
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.63-92
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구는 소비자가 지각하는 유통업체의 위치기반 모바일 쇼핑정보 서비스에 대한 정보의 상황관련성과 정보자극에 대한 PAD 감정변수들(환기, 지배력, 즐거움) 간의 상호 인과관계와 이용의도에 대한 이들의 효과를 실증 연구 하였다. 미국 내 모바일 이용자를 대상으로 무작위 표본추출법에 근거하여 추출되었고, 총 335명의 사용가능한 응답이 수거되었다. 분석결과, 환기와 상황관련성은 즐거움에 정(+)의 영향을 주었으나 지배력은 즐거움에 유의한 영향력을 나타내지 않았다. 즐거움은 이용의도에 정(+)의 영향을 주었다. 본 연구를 통해 위치기반 모바일 서비스에 대한 소비자의 인지적 반응과 감정적 반응을 통합적으로 살펴보았으며, PAD 감정차원간의 체계적인 관계를 규명하였다. 연구결과를 바탕으로 모바일 쇼핑서비스 개발자, 유통업체, 그리고 마케팅 실무자를 위한 시사점을 논의하였으며, 연구의 한계점과 더불어 향후 연구 방향을 제시하였다.

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Perceptional Change of a New Product, DMB Phone

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Ko, Deok-Im
    • 마케팅과학연구
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.59-88
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    • 2008
  • Digital Convergence means integration between industry, technology, and contents, and in marketing, it usually comes with creation of new types of product and service under the base of digital technology as digitalization progress in electro-communication industries including telecommunication, home appliance, and computer industries. One can see digital convergence not only in instruments such as PC, AV appliances, cellular phone, but also in contents, network, service that are required in production, modification, distribution, re-production of information. Convergence in contents started around 1990. Convergence in network and service begins as broadcasting and telecommunication integrates and DMB(digital multimedia broadcasting), born in May, 2005 is the symbolic icon in this trend. There are some positive and negative expectations about DMB. The reason why two opposite expectations exist is that DMB does not come out from customer's need but from technology development. Therefore, customers might have hard time to interpret the real meaning of DMB. Time is quite critical to a high tech product, like DMB because another product with same function from different technology can replace the existing product within short period of time. If DMB does not positioning well to customer's mind quickly, another products like Wibro, IPTV, or HSPDA could replace it before it even spreads out. Therefore, positioning strategy is critical for success of DMB product. To make correct positioning strategy, one needs to understand how consumer interprets DMB and how consumer's interpretation can be changed via communication strategy. In this study, we try to investigate how consumer perceives a new product, like DMB and how AD strategy change consumer's perception. More specifically, the paper segment consumers into sub-groups based on their DMB perceptions and compare their characteristics in order to understand how they perceive DMB. And, expose them different printed ADs that have messages guiding consumer think DMB in specific ways, either cellular phone or personal TV. Research Question 1: Segment consumers according to perceptions about DMB and compare characteristics of segmentations. Research Question 2: Compare perceptions about DMB after AD that induces categorization of DMB in direction for each segment. If one understand and predict a direction in which consumer perceive a new product, firm can select target customers easily. We segment consumers according to their perception and analyze characteristics in order to find some variables that can influence perceptions, like prior experience, usage, or habit. And then, marketing people can use this variables to identify target customers and predict their perceptions. If one knows how customer's perception is changed via AD message, communication strategy could be constructed properly. Specially, information from segmented customers helps to develop efficient AD strategy for segment who has prior perception. Research framework consists of two measurements and one treatment, O1 X O2. First observation is for collecting information about consumer's perception and their characteristics. Based on first observation, the paper segment consumers into two groups, one group perceives DMB similar to Cellular phone and the other group perceives DMB similar to TV. And compare characteristics of two segments in order to find reason why they perceive DMB differently. Next, we expose two kinds of AD to subjects. One AD describes DMB as Cellular phone and the other Ad describes DMB as personal TV. When two ADs are exposed to subjects, consumers don't know their prior perception of DMB, in other words, which subject belongs 'similar-to-Cellular phone' segment or 'similar-to-TV' segment? However, we analyze the AD's effect differently for each segment. In research design, final observation is for investigating AD effect. Perception before AD is compared with perception after AD. Comparisons are made for each segment and for each AD. For the segment who perceives DMB similar to TV, AD that describes DMB as cellular phone could change the prior perception. And AD that describes DMB as personal TV, could enforce the prior perception. For data collection, subjects are selected from undergraduate students because they have basic knowledge about most digital equipments and have open attitude about a new product and media. Total number of subjects is 240. In order to measure perception about DMB, we use indirect measurement, comparison with other similar digital products. To select similar digital products, we pre-survey students and then finally select PDA, Car-TV, Cellular Phone, MP3 player, TV, and PSP. Quasi experiment is done at several classes under instructor's allowance. After brief introduction, prior knowledge, awareness, and usage about DMB as well as other digital instruments is asked and their similarities and perceived characteristics are measured. And then, two kinds of manipulated color-printed AD are distributed and similarities and perceived characteristics for DMB are re-measured. Finally purchase intension, AD attitude, manipulation check, and demographic variables are asked. Subjects are given small gift for participation. Stimuli are color-printed advertising. Their actual size is A4 and made after several pre-test from AD professionals and students. As results, consumers are segmented into two subgroups based on their perceptions of DMB. Similarity measure between DMB and cellular phone and similarity measure between DMB and TV are used to classify consumers. If subject whose first measure is less than the second measure, she is classified into segment A and segment A is characterized as they perceive DMB like TV. Otherwise, they are classified as segment B, who perceives DMB like cellular phone. Discriminant analysis on these groups with their characteristics of usage and attitude shows that Segment A knows much about DMB and uses a lot of digital instrument. Segment B, who thinks DMB as cellular phone doesn't know well about DMB and not familiar with other digital instruments. So, consumers with higher knowledge perceive DMB similar to TV because launching DMB advertising lead consumer think DMB as TV. Consumers with less interest on digital products don't know well about DMB AD and then think DMB as cellular phone. In order to investigate perceptions of DMB as well as other digital instruments, we apply Proxscal analysis, Multidimensional Scaling technique at SPSS statistical package. At first step, subjects are presented 21 pairs of 7 digital instruments and evaluate similarity judgments on 7 point scale. And for each segment, their similarity judgments are averaged and similarity matrix is made. Secondly, Proxscal analysis of segment A and B are done. At third stage, get similarity judgment between DMB and other digital instruments after AD exposure. Lastly, similarity judgments of group A-1, A-2, B-1, and B-2 are named as 'after DMB' and put them into matrix made at the first stage. Then apply Proxscal analysis on these matrixes and check the positional difference of DMB and after DMB. The results show that map of segment A, who perceives DMB similar as TV, shows that DMB position closer to TV than to Cellular phone as expected. Map of segment B, who perceive DMB similar as cellular phone shows that DMB position closer to Cellular phone than to TV as expected. Stress value and R-square is acceptable. And, change results after stimuli, manipulated Advertising show that AD makes DMB perception bent toward Cellular phone when Cellular phone-like AD is exposed, and that DMB positioning move towards Car-TV which is more personalized one when TV-like AD is exposed. It is true for both segment, A and B, consistently. Furthermore, the paper apply correspondence analysis to the same data and find almost the same results. The paper answers two main research questions. The first one is that perception about a new product is made mainly from prior experience. And the second one is that AD is effective in changing and enforcing perception. In addition to above, we extend perception change to purchase intention. Purchase intention is high when AD enforces original perception. AD that shows DMB like TV makes worst intention. This paper has limitations and issues to be pursed in near future. Methodologically, current methodology can't provide statistical test on the perceptual change, since classical MDS models, like Proxscal and correspondence analysis are not probability models. So, a new probability MDS model for testing hypothesis about configuration needs to be developed. Next, advertising message needs to be developed more rigorously from theoretical and managerial perspective. Also experimental procedure could be improved for more realistic data collection. For example, web-based experiment and real product stimuli and multimedia presentation could be employed. Or, one can display products together in simulated shop. In addition, demand and social desirability threats of internal validity could influence on the results. In order to handle the threats, results of the model-intended advertising and other "pseudo" advertising could be compared. Furthermore, one can try various level of innovativeness in order to check whether it make any different results (cf. Moon 2006). In addition, if one can create hypothetical product that is really innovative and new for research, it helps to make a vacant impression status and then to study how to form impression in more rigorous way.

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고려의 원시영역 유목초지, 그 부르칸(불함)이즘과 한국축산의 비전 (Burqanism from the Origin of the Pastoral Nomadic Koryo Region and the Vision of Korean Livestock Farming)

  • 주채혁
    • 한국초지조사료학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2005
  • Khori(高麗) refers to the Chaabog(reindeer) that live on lichens(蘚) on Mt. Soyon(鮮) in which pastures are the cold and dry plateau of North Eurasia. Thus, the origin region of the Khori or Koguryo that are the ancestors of the reindeer-herding pastoral nomads(馴鹿 遊牧民) can be said to be the Steppe-Taiga-Tundra pastoral areas of North Eurasia and North America. When the pastoral nomads moved on to the great mountain(大山) zone of the Jangbaek(長白) to the Baekdu(白頭) Mountains, they could have been in contact with pastoral farmers or agricultural farmers living there and they became the farmers remaining on agricultural farms. They were the Koryo people, the ancestors of Korea. Staying in one place, they gradually forgot the origin of their reindeer-herding pastoral nomadic history in the Northwest area of Mt. Soyon, the small mountain(小山) zone of the Steppe-Taiga-Tundra pastoral areas. In other words, they lost their identity as reindeer-herding pastoral nomads when they entered the agricultural area after leaving the pastoral area. However, since their basic genes had already formed when they lived on the cold and dry plateau of North Eurasia, it is possible to study their pastoral nomadic history focusing on 'the minority living in the broad area(廣域少數)', by utilizing highly advanced biotechnological science and focusing on genes and information technology innovation, and removing various past hindrances in research. Therefore, it is not so difficult to restore the reindeerherding pastoral nomadic history of the Koguryo(高句麗) people and secure their pastoral nomadic identity, of which the first steps have already been taken into their historical stages. The Eurasian continent and the Korean peninsula, especially the cold and dry plateau of North Eurasia and the Korean peninsula have been closely related to each other ecologically and historically. They can never be a separate space at all. The Eurasian continent lies horizontally east to west and thus, the continent forms an isothermal zone. Also, since the time of producing their own foods, it was relatively easy for people with their technology to move to other places owing to the pastoral nomadic characteristic of mobility. Unlike the Chungyen(中原) region, western Asia and the regions covering the Siberia-Manchu-Korean peninsula where food production revolution was first made were connected to the Mongolian lichens route(蘚苔之路: Ni, ukinii jam) and steppe roads. Although the ecological conditions of nature have changed a bit throughout a long history, it was natural for the many tribes in North Asia living on the largest Steppe-Taiga-Tundra area in the world to have believed 'the legends related to animals in relation to their founders and ancestors(獸祖傳說)'. Assuming that Siberian tigers and the tigers living on Mt. Baekdu were connected ecologically and genetically because of the ecological characteristics of the animals, and their migration from plateau to plateau, we would suspect that the Chosun(朝鮮) tribe living on Mt. Baekdu were ethnically and culturally more closely connected to the farther removed Ural-Altai tribes that lived on the cold and dry plateau region than to the Han(i14;) tribe who lived in Chungyen(中原) that was close to Mt. Baekdu. More evidence is the structure of the Korean language which has the form of 'Subject + Object + Verb', which is assumed to have originated from the speedy lifestyle of the reindeer-herding pastoral nomads. The structure is quite different from that of the Han(漢) language, which is based on agricultural life. Also, it is natural for reindeer riding reindeerherding pastoral nomads or horse-riding sheep-herding pastoral nomads(騎馬, 羊遊牧民) to have held military and political power over the region and eventually to have established an ancient pastoral nomadic empire in the process of their conquest of agricultural regions. The stages for founding global empires in the history of mankind maybe largely divided into two, in terms of ecological conditions and occupations. They are the steppes and the oceans. Of course, the steppe-based empires were established based on the skills to deal with horses and the ability to shoot arrows while riding horses, along with the use of iron ware in the 8th century BC. The steppe-based empires became the foundation for an oceanic empire, which could have been established by the use of warships and warship guns since the 15th Century. Based on those facts, we know that Chosun, Puyo(夫餘), and Koguryo are the products of a developmental process of pastoral nomadic empires on the steppes. Maybe we can easily find the pastoral nomadic identity of the Koguryo more than we expected when we trace the origins and history of the Korean tribe living in the pastures located in the northwest area of Mt. Jangbaek by focusing on pastoral nomadic mobility and organization just as we have investigated the historic origins of Anglo-Saxons in America by focusing on the times before the 15th Century. In the process, we should keep in mind that English culture originated from the Industrial Revolution and was directly delivered to the American continent, although America was far from England and was not an intermediate point on long sojourns either. Further, American culture came back to England in a more advanced form later. The most important thing currently to be resolved is to cause Koreans to look back on their own history in a freer way of thinking and with diverse, profound, and sharp insight, taking away the old and existing conventional recognition that is entangled with complicated interests with Korean people and other countries. The meanings of Chosun, Khori, and Solongos have been interpreted arbitrarily without any historic evidence by the scholars who followed conventional tradition of fixed-minded aristocrats in an agricultural society. If the Siberian cultural properties of the stone age, the earthenware age, the bronze age, and the iron age are analyzed in such a way, archaeological discovery will never be able to contribute to the restoration of the Koguryo's pastoral nomadic identity. One should transcend the errors that tend to interpret the cultural properties discovered in the pastoral nomadic regions as not being differentiated from those of agricultural regions and just interpret them altogether from the agricultural point of view. A more careful intention is required in the interpretation of cultural properties of ancient Korean empires that seem to have been formed due to mutual interactions of pastoral nomadic and agricultural cultures. Also, it is required that the conventional recognition chain of 'reverse-genes' be severed, which has placed more weight on agricultural properties than pastoral nomadic ones, since their settlement on agricultural farms was made after the establishment of their ancient pastoral nomadic empires. There is no reason at all to place priority on stoneware, earthenware, bronze ware, and iron ware than on wooden ware(木器) and other ware which were made of animal skins(皮器), bones and horns(骨角器), in analyzing the history in the regions of reindeer or sheep pastures. Reading ancient Korean history from the perspective of pastoral nomadic history, one feels strongly the instinctive emotions to return to the natural 'mother place'. The reindeer-herding pastoral nomadic identity of the Koguryo people that has been accumulated in volumes in their genes and hidden deep inside and have interacted organically could be reborn with Burqanism(Burqan refers to 不咸 in Chinese), which was their religion by birth and symbolized as the red willow(紅柳=不咸). The mother place of the Koguryo's people is the endless vast green pastures of North Eurasia and North America, where we anticipated the development of Korean livestock farming following the inherent properties in the genes of the reindeer-herding pastoral nomads with Korean ancestors. We anticipate that the place would be the core resource that could contribute to the development of life of living creatures following the inherent properties of their genes and biotechnological factors. In other words, biotechnology used for a search for clues on the well-being of humans could be the fruit brought by Burqanism of the Koguryo people and the fruit of the globalization of Korean livestock farming. It is the Chosun farmer in China come from the vast nomadic reindeer pastures of North Eurasia that resolved the food problem of a billion Chinese people with lowland paddy rice seeds (水稻) by transforming Heilongjiang Province(黑龍江省) into an oceanic lowland paddy rice field(水田). Even Mao Tse-tung(毛擇東) could not resolve the food problem by his revolution campaigns for tens of years. Today is the very time that requires the development of special livestock farming following the inherent properties of the ancient Korean reindeer-herding pastoral nomads that respected the dignity of life on the cold and dry plateau of North Eurasia and the America continent. I suggest that research should be started from the pastures of the Dariganga Steppe in East Mongolia that was the homeland of Hanwoo(韓牛) and the central horse-herding steppe place(牧馬場) of Chingis Khan's Mongolia. The Dariganga Steppe is awash with an affluent natural environment for pastoral nomadic living however, the quality of life of the pastoral nomads there is still low. I suggest we Koreans, the descendents of the Koguryo, should take our first steps for our livestock farming business project and develop the Northern nomadic pastures, here at the pastures of the Dariganga Steppe, which is the Mongolian core place of state-of-the-art technology for military weapons.

MMORPG에서 길드 구성원들의 사회적 지지와 심리적 요인들이 플로우 및 충성도에 미치는 영향 (The Impacts of Social Support and Psychological Factors on Guild Members' Flow and Loyalty in MMORPG)

  • 강주선;고윤정;고일상
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.69-98
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    • 2009
  • We investigated what factors motivate gamers to participate in a guild and why they continue to be engaged as members of the guild. We find that, based on the result of focus group interviews with MMORPG gamers, social support and self-esteem factors play important roles. Considering both prior research and the focus group interviews we have conducted, we define social support and character control as independent variables. Character identity, guild identity, and self-esteem are proposed as mediating variables while guild flow and game loyalty as dependent variables. Accordingly, we develop the research model and hypotheses, and verify them empirically. Based on our experiences of playing the WoW game, we proposed a research model and conducted focus-group interviews (FGIs). FGIs involve formulating a hypothesis and then collecting some relevant data. FGIs were conducted face-to-face with students of C University in Korea. We formulated structured interview schedules, and the questions were based on our research variables and personal experiences. The questions for the interviews encompassed the following areas: (a) the demographic characteristics of the focus group; (b) the number of years for which respondents had played online games; (c) the motive for starting a game; (d) the number of game-characters assumed by each gamer; (e) the type of game played; and (f) other issues such as the reasons for involvement in the play, the willingness to reuse the game in case new versions were released, etc. On average, it took two hours to interview each of three groups. A primary set of FGIs was conducted with three groups on the premise that there would be some differences caused by character race (Horde vs. Alliance) or by playable server (Normal vs. Combat). With respect to the manner of playing, we found that guild members shared information, felt a sense of belonging, and played computer games for quite a long time through the guild; however, they did not undergo these experiences when playing alone. Gamers who belonged to a specific guild helped other players without expecting compensation for that, freely shared information about the game, gave away items for free, and more generous with other members who made mistakes. The guild members were aware of the existence other members and experienced a sense of belonging through interactions with, and evaluations from, other players. It was clear that social support was shown within the guild and that it played an important role as a major research variable. Based on the results of the first FGIs, a second set of in-depth FGIs was carried out with a focus on the psychology of the individual within the guild and the social community of the guild. The second set of FGIs also focused on the guild's offline meetings. Gamers, over all, recognize the necessity of joining a community, not only off-line but also online world of the guild. They admit that the guild is important for them to easily and conveniently enjoy playing online computer games. The active behavior and positive attitudes of existing guild members can motivate new members of the guild to adapt themselves to the guild environment. They then adopt the same behaviors and attitudes of established guild members. In this manner, the new members of the guild strengthen the bonds with other gamers while feeling a sense of belonging, and developing social identity, thereby. It was discovered that the interaction among guild members and the social support encouraged new gamers to quickly develop a sense of social identity and increase their self-esteem. The guild seemed to play the role of socializing gamers. Sometimes, even in the real world, the guild members helped one another; therefore, the features of the guild also spilled over to the offline environment. We intend to use self-esteem, which was found through the second set of FGIs, as an important research variable. To collect data, an online survey was designed with a questionnaire to be completed by WoW gamers, who belong to a guild. The survey was registered on the best three domestic game-sites: 'WoW playforum,' 'WoW gamemeca,' and 'Wow invent.' The selected items to be measured in the questionnaire were decided based on prior research and data from FGIs. To verify the content of the questionnaire, we carried out a pilot test with the same participants to point out ambiguous questions as a way to ensure maximum accuracy of the survey result. A total of 244 responses were analyzed from the 250 completed questionnaires. The SEM analysis was used to test goodness-of-fit of the model. As a result, we found important results as follows: First, according to the statistics, social support had statistically significant impacts on character control, character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Second, character control had significant effects on character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Third, character identity shows its clear impact on self-esteem and game loyalty. Fourth, guild identity affected self-esteem, guild flow and game loyalty. Fifth, self-esteem had a positive influence on the guild flow. These days, the number of virtual community is rising along with its significance largely because of the nature of the online games. Accordingly, this study is designed to clarify the psychological relationship between gamers within the guild that has been generally established by gamers to play online games together. This study focuses on the relationships in which social support influences guild flow or game loyalty through character control, character identity, guild identity, and self-esteem, which are present within a guild in the MMORPG game environment. The study results are as follows. First, the effects of social support on character control, character identity, guild identity and self-esteem are proven to be statistically significant. It was found that character control improves character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Among the seven variables, social support, which is derived from FGIs, plays an important role in this study. With the active support of other guild members, gamers can improve their ability to develop good characters and to control them. Second, character identity has a positive effect on self-esteem and game loyalty, while guild identity has a significant effect on self-esteem, guild flow and game loyalty. Self-esteem affects guild flow. It was found that the higher the character and guild identities become, the greater the self-esteem is established. Contrary to the findings of prior research, our study results indicate that the relationship between character identity and guild flow is not significant. Rather, it was found that character identity directly affects game players' loyalty. Even though the character identity had no direct effect on increasing guild flow, it has indirectly affected guild flow through self-esteem. The significant relationship between self-esteem and guild flow indicates that gamers achieve flow, i.e., a feeling of pleasure and excitement through social support. Several important implications of this study should be noted. First, both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to conduct this study. Through FGIs, it was observed that both social support and self-esteem are important variables. Second, because guilds had been rarely studied, this research is expected to play an important role in the online community. Third, according to the result, six hypotheses (H1, H5, H6, H7, H8, and H11) setup based on FGIs, were statistically significant; thus, we can suggest the corresponding relationships among the variables as a guideline for follow-up research. Our research is significant as it has following implications: first, the social support of the guild members is important when establishing character control, character identity, guildidentity and self-esteem. It is also a major variable that affects guild flow and game loyalty. Second, character control when improved by social support shows notable influence on the development of character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Third, character identity and guild identity are major factors to help establish gamers' own self-esteem. Fourth, character identity affects guild flow through self-esteem and game loyalty. The gamers usually express themselves through characters; the higher character identity is, the more loyalty a gamer has. Fifth, guild identity, established within the guild, has clear effects on self-esteem, guild flow and game loyalty. Sixth, qualitative and quantitative methods are employed to conduct this study. Based on the results of focus group interviews and SEM analysis, we find that the social support by guild members and psychological factors are significant in strengthening the flow of guild and loyalty to the game. As such, game developers should provide some extra functions for guild community, through which gamers can play online games in collaboration with one another. Also, we suggest that positive self-esteem which is built up through social support can help gamers achieve higher level of flow and satisfaction, which will consequently contribute to minimizing the possibility for the players to develop negative attitude toward the guild they belong to.