• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.163-173
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• 1997

Although numerous studies demonstrate that one technique outperforms the others for a given data set, it is hard to tell a priori which of these techniques will be the most effective to solve a specific problem. It has been suggested that the better approach to classification problem might be to integrate several different forecasting techniques by combining their results. The issues of interest are how to integrate different modeling techniques to increase the predictive performance. This paper proposes the post-model integration method, which tries to find the best combination of the results provided by individual techniques. To get the optimal or near optimal combination of different prediction techniques, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are applied, which are particularly suitable for multi-parameter optimization problems with an object function subject to numerous hard and soft constraints. This study applies three individual classification techniques (Discriminant analysis, Logit model and Neural Networks) as base models for the corporate failure prediction. The results of composite predictions are compared with the individual models. Preliminary results suggests that the use of integrated methods improve the performance of business classification.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.105-115
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• 2016

Ensemble classification involves combining individually trained classifiers to yield more accurate prediction, compared with individual models. Ensemble techniques are very useful for improving the generalization ability of classifiers. The random subspace ensemble technique is a simple but effective method for constructing ensemble classifiers; it involves randomly drawing some of the features from each classifier in the ensemble. The instance selection technique involves selecting critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and noisy instances from the original dataset. The instance selection and random subspace methods are both well known in the field of data mining and have proven to be very effective in many applications. However, few studies have focused on integrating the instance selection and random subspace methods. Therefore, this study proposed a new hybrid ensemble model that integrates instance selection and random subspace techniques using genetic algorithms (GAs) to improve the performance of a random subspace ensemble model. GAs are used to select optimal (or near optimal) instances, which are used as input data for the random subspace ensemble model. The proposed model was applied to both Kaggle credit data and corporate credit data, and the results were compared with those of other models to investigate performance in terms of classification accuracy, levels of diversity, and average classification rates of base classifiers in the ensemble. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed model outperformed other models including the single model, the instance selection model, and the original random subspace ensemble model.

• 산업공학
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.252-262
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• 2009

It is crucial to prevent low yields in the semiconductor industry. Since many factors affect variation in yield and they are deeply related, preventing low yield is difficult. There have been substantial researches in the field of yield prediction. Many researchers had used the statistical methods. Many studies have shown that artificial neural network (ANN) achieved better performance than traditional statistical methods. However, despite ANN's superior performance some problems such as over-fitting and poor explanatory power arise. In order to overcome these limitations, a relatively new machine learning technique, support vector machine (SVM), is introduced to classify the yield. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematically, and it leads to high performances in practical applications. This study presents a new efficient classification methodology, Stepwise-SVM (SSVM), for detecting high and low yields. SSVM is step-by-step adjustment of parameters to be precisely the classification for actual high and low yield lot. The objective of this paper is to examine the feasibility of SVM and SSVM in the yield classification. The experimental results show that SVM and SSVM provides a promising alternative to yield classification for the field data.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.29-45
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• 2015

고객반응 예측모형은 마케팅 프로모션을 제공할 목표고객을 효과적으로 선정할 수 있도록 하여 프로모션의 효과를 극대화 할 수 있도록 해준다. 오늘날과 같은 빅데이터 환경에서는 데이터 마이닝 기법을 적용하여 고객반응 예측모형을 구축하고 있으며 본 연구에서는 사례기반추론 기반의 고객반응 예측모형을 제시하였다. 일반적으로 사례기반추론 기반의 예측모형은 타 인공지능기법에 비해 성과가 낮다고 알려져 있으나 입력변수의 중요도에 따라 가중치를 상이하게 적용함으로써 예측성과를 향상시킬 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 프로모션에 대한 고객의 반응여부에 영향을 미치는 중요도에 따라 입력변수의 가중치를 산출하여 적용하였으며 동일한 가중치를 적용한 예측모형과의 성과를 비교하였다. 목욕세제 판매데이터를 사용하여 고객반응 예측모형을 개발하고 로짓모형의 계수를 적용하여 입력변수의 중요도에 따라 가중치를 산출하였다. 실증분석 결과 각 변수의 중요도에 기반하여 가중치를 적용한 예측모형이 동일한 가중치를 적용한 예측모형보다 높은 예측성과를 보여주었다. 또한 고객 반응예측 모형과 같이 실생활의 분류문제에서는 두 범주에 속하는 데이터의 수가 현격한 차이를 보이는 불균형 데이터가 대부분이다. 이러한 데이터의 불균형 문제는 기계학습 알고리즘의 성능을 저하시키는 요인으로 작용하며 본 연구에서 제안한 Weighted CBR이 불균형 환경에서도 안정적으로 적용할 수 있는지 검증하였다. 전체데이터에서 100개의 데이터를 무작위로 추출한 불균형 환경에서 100번 반복하여 예측성과를 비교해 본 결과 본 연구에서 제안한 Weighted CBR은 불균형 환경에서도 일관된 우수한 성과를 보여주었다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.249-261
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• 2010

Long-term forecasting of seasonal time series is critical in many applications such as planning business strategies and resolving possible problems of a business company. Unlike the traditional approach that depends solely on dynamic models, Li and Hinich (2002) introduced a combination of stochastic dynamic modeling with filter bank approach for forecasting seasonal patterns using highly coherent(High-C) waveforms. We modify the filter selection and forecasting procedure on wavelet domain to be more feasible and compare the resulting predictor with one that obtained from the wavelet variance estimation method. An improvement over other seasonal pattern extraction and forecasting methods based on such as wavelet scalogram, Holt-Winters, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) is shown in terms of the prediction error. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated by a simulation study and an application to the real stock price data.

• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2004

Recently, most managers of Small & Medium Enterprises(SMEs) think that all problem of a company is solved if only implementation of ERP or e-business. But it's too risky. Technology of IT is developing so radical, so managers didn't have enough time to consider what system is appropriate in their business process and how implement information system is when they establish Information System. This Study addresses the present Information System that operating and needed for SMEs based on the Value Chain of IS. Thus through the prediction on the consequence of IS implementation, we could cut down unnecessary investment cost and support core competence of a company. Next time, the study on the classification of more detail IS associated in SME's performance is required.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.127-137
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• 2019

재범예측은 70년대 이전부터 전문가들에 의해서 꾸준히 연구되어온 분야지만, 최근 재범에 의한 범죄가 꾸준히 증가하면서 재범예측의 중요성이 커지고 있다. 특히 미국과 캐나다에서 재판이나 가석방심사 시 재범 위험 평가 보고서를 결정적인 기준으로 채택하게 된 90년대를 기점으로 재범예측에 관한 연구가 활발해졌으며, 비슷한 시기에 국내에서도 재범요인에 관한 실증적인 연구가 시작되었다. 지금까지 대부분의 재범예측 연구는 재범요인 분석이나 재범예측의 정확성을 높이는 연구에 집중된 경향을 보이고 있다. 그러나 재범 예측에는 비대칭 오류 비용 구조가 있기 때문에 경우에 따라 예측 정확도를 최대화함과 동시에 예측 오분류 비용을 최소화하는 연구도 중요한 의미를 가진다. 일반적으로 재범을 저지르지 않을 사람을 재범을 저지를 것으로 오분류하는 비용은 재범을 저지를 사람을 재범을 저지르지 않을 것으로 오분류하는 비용보다 낮다. 전자는 추가적인 감시 비용만 증가되는 반면, 후자는 범죄 발생에 따른 막대한 사회적, 경제적 비용을 야기하기 때문이다. 이러한 비대칭비용에 따른 비용 경제성을 반영하여, 본 연구에서 비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측모델을 제안한다. 모델의 첫 단계에서 최근 데이터 마이닝 분야에서 높은 성능으로 각광받고 있는 앙상블 기법, XGBoost를 적용하였고, XGBoost의 결과를 로지스틱 회귀 분석(Logistic Regression Analysis), 의사결정나무(Decision Trees), 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Networks), 서포트 벡터 머신(Support Vector Machine)과 같은 다양한 예측 기법과 비교하였다. 다음 단계에서 임계치의 최적화를 통해 FNE(False Negative Error)와 FPE(False Positive Error)의 가중 평균인 전체 오분류 비용을 최소화한다. 이후 모델의 유용성을 검증하기 위해 모델을 실제 재범예측 데이터셋에 적용하여 XGBoost 모델이 다른 비교 모델 보다 우수한 예측 정확도를 보일 뿐 아니라 오분류 비용도 가장 효과적으로 낮춘다는 점을 확인하였다.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.171-178
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• 2019

한국의 조선 산업은 대내외 환경 변화로 인해 심각한 위기 상황에 처해 있다. 이 위기를 극복하기 위해서, 선박 신수요 예측을 통한 제품 및 기술의 선제적 개발이 필요하다. 본 연구의 목표는 선박 신수요 예측을 위해 선박 빅데이터에 기반한 인공지능 알고리즘의 개발이다. 본 연구에서는 선박 수요 예측에 특화된 빅데이터 분석 플랫폼을 개발하고 데이터 분석을 통한 선박 신수요 예측 결과를 신제품 기획/개발에 활용하고자 한다. 이를 통해 장비 및 기자재 제조업체를 위한 지속 가능한 신사업 모델 개발로 조선소 및 선박 기자재 업체에 대한 신성장동력을 창출할 수 있을 것이다. 또한 조선 업체들은 측정 가능한 성과를 기반으로 비즈니스 사례를 창출하고 시장 지향적 인 제품과 서비스를 계획하며 높은 시장 파괴력을 가진 혁신을 지속적으로 달성 할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.177-183
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• 2006

Risk-based estimation has been successfully introduced into the construction industry. By incorporating historical data associated with probability analysis, risk-based estimate is an effective decision support aid in considering whether to launch a particular project. The industry challenges, however, especially related with management issues, such as labor shortage, wage growth, and supply chain complexity, have often resulted in poor cost performance. The insufficient assessing the project characteristics (i.e., resource availability, project complexity, and project delivery method) can be the main reasons in the poor cost performance. Because the accuracy level of cost performance prediction can be enhanced by extensive evaluation of the subject project characteristics, a new approach for predicting cost performance in an earlier stage of a project can improve the Industry substantiality, in other words, value maximization. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new methodology in developing a risk-based estimate tool by incorporating extensive project characteristics. To do this, an extensive industry survey was conducted from both private and public sectors in building industry in Korea. In addition, significant project characteristics were identified in terms of cost performance indicator. Although the data collection is limited to Korean industry the suggested approach provides the industry with a straightforward methodology in risk management. As many researchers maintained that front-end planning efforts are crucial in achieving the successful outcome in building projects, the new method for risk-based estimation can Improve the cost performance as well as enhance the fulfillment in terms of business sustainability.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제50권3호
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• pp.305-332
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• 2022

Purpose: As the public interest in entrepreneurship has been highlighted and entrepreneurship policies have been generated, this study is to construct Entrepreneurship Ecosystem (EE) models which have a significant relationship to national entrepreneurship with quantitative analysis. It aims to provide implications to EE policymakers that which national components are effective in cultivating innovative entrepreneurship and validate its EE quality based on quantitative performance goals. Methods: This study utilizes secondary data, categorized under the PESTLE factor from credible international organizations (WB, UNDP, GEM, GEDI, and OECD) to determine significant factors in the quality of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. This paper uses the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis to select the significant variables contributing to entrepreneurship performance. Using the AUC-ROC performance evaluation method for machine learning MLR results, this paper evaluates the performance of EE models so that it can allow approving EE quality by predicting potential performance. Results: Among nine hypothesis models, MLR analysis examines that the number of the Unicorn company, Unicorn companies' economic value, and entrepreneurship measured as GEI can be reasonable dependent variables to indicate the performance derived from EE quality. Rather than government policies and regulations, the social, finance, technology, and economic variables are significant factors of EE quality determining its performance. By having high Area Under Curve values under AUC-ROC analysis, accepted MLR models are regarded as having high prediction accuracy. Conclusion: Superior EE contributes to the outstanding Unicorn companies, and improvement in macro-environmental components can enhance EE quality.