• 마케팅과학연구
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2008

The objective of this paper is to describe the construct of bullwhip effect beyond supply chains, namely at industrial and societal levels. The author provides a conceptual discussion of the bullwhip effect - its derivation is extended, and the positioning of the construct is broadened. The bullwhip effect has been explored within intra-organisational and inter-organisational supply chains. A broader descriptive framework is introduced, one that positions the bullwhip effect construct at industrial and societal levels. A conceptual framework is provided that bridges the interface between the micro and macro environments of the bullwhip effect construct, but further conceptualization is required. The introduced derivation and positioning of the bullwhip effect construct reveal a number of research potentials. A principal one is that the exploration of the construct may consider the industrial and/or the societal environment when the bullwhip effect is studied in supply chains. The extended derivation and broadened positioning of the bullwhip effect in the overall environment is of interest to practitioners. It stresses the importance of contextual factors in operative, tactical and strategic supply chain performance. The principal contributions are: a) an interface between micro and macro levels in supply chain performance contributing to an extended derivation of the bullwhip effect; b) a typology of the bullwhip effect contributing to broadening the positioning of the same construct; c) the bullwhip effect being seen as two-way view construct at the micro level and d) a framework ofmanagerial implications. Most important of all is that the causes and effects of the bullwhip effect have been addressed in a wider context that so far has been underestimated in literature.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.203-212
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• 2009

The bullwhip effect refers to the phenomenon where demand variability is amplified when one moves upward a supply chain. In this paper, we exactly quantify the bullwhip effect for cases of seasonal demand processes in a two-echelon supply chain with a single retailer and a single supplier. In most of the previous research, some measures of performance for the bullwhip effect are developed for cases of non-seasonal demand processes. The retailer performs demand forecast with a multiplicative seasonal mixed model by using the minimum mean square error forecasting technique and employs a base stock policy. With the developed bullwhip effect measure, we investigate the impact of seasonal factor on the bullwhip effect. Then, we prove that seasonal factor plays an important role on the occurrence of the bullwhip effect.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.117-129
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• 2009

The bullwhip effect is known as the significant factor which causes unnecessary inventory, lost sales or cost increase in supply chains. Therefore, the causes of the bullwhip effect must be examined and removed. In this paper, we develop two analytical tools for the bullwhip effect control in supply chains. First, we develop the quantitative models for computing the bullwhip effect in a three-stage supply chain consisted of a single retailer, a single distributor and a single manufacturer when the fixed-interval replenishment policy is applied at each stage. The quantitative models are developed under the different conditions for the demand forecasting and share of customer demand information. They are validated through the computational experiments. Second, we develop a simulation-based decision support system for the bullwhip effect control in a more diverse dynamic supply chain environment. The system includes a what-if analysis function to examine the effects of varying input parameters such as operating policies and costs on the bullwhip effect.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.281-291
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• 2022

Purpose - We study whether the bullwhip effect is prevalent among Korean firms and how the characteristics of it differ from the ones in other countries. Design/methodology/approach - We obtained quarterly financial and operational information on KOSPI-listed firms in manufacturing, wholesale, and retail industries from 2013 to 2019. We explore the variation of the bullwhip effect across firms and validate hypotheses. Findings - First, we find that for the KOSPI-listed firms, the bullwhip effect is more prevalent compared with the production smoothing. We provide additional findings by using sub-samples of manufacturing firms, wholesaling and retailing firms, big-sized firms, small- and medium-sized firms, domestic-sales intensive firms, and export intensive firms. Second, we show that in general, the bullwhip effect of Korean firms increases with the days in inventory or the demand seasonality ratio. However, the persistence of demand shock does not affect the bullwhip effect of Korean firms. Research implications or Originality - We compare our results with those in other studies that use information on the U.S. and Chinese firms. Our findings show that factors explaining the bullwhip effect across Korean firms have similarities and differences compared with firms in the U.S. and Chinese firms.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.91-112
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• 2009

The bullwhip effect means the phenomenon of increasing demand variation as moving UP to the upstream in the supply chain. Therefore, it is recognized that the bullwhip effect is problematic for effective supply chain operations. In this paper, we exactly quantifies the bullwhip effect for the case of stochastic lead time and seasonal demand in two-echelon supply chain where retailer employs a base-stock policy considering SARMA demand processes and stochastic lead time. We also investigate the behavior of the proposed measurement for the bullwhip effect with autoregressive and moving average coefficient, stochastic lead time, and seasonal factor.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.109-117
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• 2016

Recently, corporate environment is faced with uncertainty that did not suffer in the past. In addition, as the supply chain was expanded and lengthened, the flow of information and material was complicated. Increase in complexity which amplifies the variability of the individual steps in supply chains further adds to the uncertainty. The bullwhip effect that refers the phenomenon where order variability increases as the orders move upstream in the supply chain became serious. The bullwhip effect is more and more important especially for the enterprise in the supply chain. So, there are many studies now since it was observed about 100 years ago. The aim of this paper is to analyze how to solve the bullwhip effect by using TRIZ (Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadach). TRIZ is one of the most famous tools for creative solving that applied in many fields ranging from management as well as engineering. Among problems, the dilemma needs creative solutions that require handling the contradictions inherent in that. Among various kinds of problem solving techniques, TRIZ provides the concept of physical contradiction as a common problem solving principle. This study provides a simple process of solving problem explains a case of solving problem in the management field and shows the availability of theory in the inventory control. In accordance with the proposed solving process, the paper analyzes the bullwhip effect by applying the TRIZ tools and then identifies the solution directions. Next, the current studies are classified by the above analysis and important managerial concepts are proposed. Lastly, directions for future research on this area are suggested.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.93-100
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• 2023

In this paper, an alternative inventory policy that trades off the bullwhip effect at an upstream facility with cost minimization at a current facility, with the goal of reducing system wide total expected inventory costs, when external demand distributjon is autocorrelated, is considered. The alternative inventory policy has a form that is somewhere between one that completely neglects the autocorrleation and one that actively utilizes the autocorrelation. For this purpose, a mathematical model that allows us to evaluate system wide total expected inventory costs for a periodic review system is developed. This model enables us to identify an optimal inventory policy at a current facility that minimizes system wide total expected inventory costs by the best tradeoff of the bullwhip effect at an upstream facility with cost minimization at a current facility. From numerical experiments, it has been found that (i) when the autocorrelation is negative, the optimal policy is one that actively utilizes the autocorrelation, (ii) when the autocorrelation is small and positive, the optimal policy is one that neglects the autocorrelation, and (iii) when the autocorrelation is large and positive, the optimal policy is somewhere between one that actively utilizes the autocorrelation and one that neglect the autocorrelation.

• 산업공학
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.161-169
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• 2008

Normally, suppliers have to decide on what, how much, and when to replenish stocks of goods based on a data flow generated by a vendor managed inventory(VMI) system. But information from supply chain is often misleading. It is common for such data to be distorted by a lack of coordination and synchronization across several business entities managing different supply chain operations. This phenomenon is called the 'bullwhip effect(BwE)'. Many researchers, working over many years, have studied the reasons for the BwE. They have proposed various remedies, but this phenomenon persists. Though overlooked in previous research, this paper reveals that the 'lot size' of a supply chain of distribution is indeed the main cause of the BwE. In addition, some problems in the existing methods of measuring the BwE are identified and a revised much improved method of measurement is suggested.

• 한국유통학회지:유통연구
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.87-103
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• 2002

본 연구에서는 동태적인 공급체인을 설정하여 개인의 의사결정 유형이 공급체인에서의 채찍현상에 어떠한 영향을 미치는 지를 설문조사, 실험, 그리고 시뮬레이션을 통해 검증하고 있다. 공급체인 참여자의 의사결정 유형은 Rowe와 Boulgarides(1992)에 의해 만들어진 의사결정유형 측정목록을 통해 구분하였으며, 채찍효과는 공급체인에서의 최대주문량과 재고량을 중심으로 분석하였다. 공급체인 모델 설정시 주안점은 주문량 결정식이다. 공급체인 참여자들은 통상 고객에 대한 서비스 수준을 충족시킬 수 있으면서 동시에 재고 비용을 최소화시킬 수 있도록 적정 주문량을 결정하기 때문이다. 본 연구에서는 맥주배송게임을 통해 기본 공급체인 모델을 설정하고 설정된 공급체인 모델을 바탕으로 개인의 의사결정 유형에 따른 공급체인에서의 채찍현상을 시뮬레이션하였다. 연구결과 개인 의사결정유형에 따라 전체 공급체인에서의 채찍효과가 달리 나타나지 않았다. 본 연구는 기존의 개인의 특성이 공급체인에서의 채찍효과에 영향을 미친다는 연구결과와는 대조되는 결과를 보여주고 있다. 공급체인에서의 채찍현상의 원인을 규명하는 작업에서 조직이나 시스템 관점에서의 접근과 개인 특성 위주의 접근 중에서 전자에 비중을 실어주는 연구결과라고 할 수 있다. 즉 공급체인에서의 채찍현상을 제거하기 위해서는 구조나 시스템 차원에서의 개선이 이루어져야 함을 간접적으로 시사함을 본 연구의 의의로 들 수 있다.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.41-51
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• 2013

하류업체에 발생하는 소비자 수요의 조그만 변화가 상류업체로 올라갈수록 증폭되는 현상을 채찍효과(BE)라 한다. BE는 일반적으로 주문량 분산/수요량 분산으로 정의된다. 이와 같이 왜곡된 정보는 공급사슬의 비효율성을 유발하므로, 주문량의 분산을 줄이는 많은 연구들이 수행되고 있다. 그러나 본 연구에서는 BE를 최소화하는 것이 오히려 공급사슬의 비효율성을 증가시킬 수 있음을 보여 주며, 스무딩된 주문 정책을 사용하여 공급사슬의 효율성를 증가시키기 위한 새로운 목적함수를 설정한다. 최적화된 스무딩 주문정책을 연구하기 위해 시뮬레이션 최적화 기법을 사용한다.