• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.869-877
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• 2016

Necessity has compelled man to improve upon the art of tapping wind energy for power generation; an apt reliever of strain exerted on the non-renewable fossil fuel. The power generation in a Wind Farm (WF) depends on site and wind velocity which varies with time and season which in turn determine wind power modeling. It implies, the development of an accurate wind speed model to predict wind power fluctuations at a particular site is significant. In this paper, Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series model for wind speed is developed for a 99MW wind farm in the southern region of India. Because of the uncertainty in wind power developed, the economic viability and reliability of power generation is significant. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) method is used to determine the economic viability of WF generated power. Reliability models of WF are developed with the help of load curve of the utility grid and Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). ARIMA wind speed model is used for developing COPT. The values of annual reliability indices and variations of risk index of the WF with system peak load are calculated. Such reliability models of large WF can be used in generation system planning.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.491-499
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• 2001

In this paper, the scheme of an efficient fuzzy rule generation and fuzzy system construction using GA(genetic algorithm) and FCM(fuzzy c-means) clustering algorithm is proposed for TSK(Takagi-Sugeno-Kang) type fuzzy system. In the structure identification, input data is transformed by PCA(Principal Component Analysis) to reduce the correlation among input data components. And then, a set fuzzy rules are generated for a given criterion by FCM clustering algorithm . In the parameter identification premise parameters are optimally searched by GA. On the other hand, the consequent parameters are estimated by RLSE(Recursive Least Square Estimate) to reduce the search space. From this one can systematically obtain the valid number of fuzzy rules which shows satisfying performance for the given problem. Finally, we applied the proposed method to the Box-Jenkins data and rice taste data modeling problems and obtained a better performance than previous works.