• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.25-35
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• 2005

This paper describes the mechanism for new investment to appear in waves of boom and bust causing alternative periods of over and under supply of electricity in Korean market. A system dynamics model was developed to describe the dynamic behavior of new investment in Korean market. The simulation results show the boom and bust cycle in the new investments. When the market price is high, investors decide to build new power plants. However, it takes some delay time to complete new power plants. When the new power plants are being added into the grid, the supply increases and the wholesale price begins to decrease. This causes the cancellation of new power plant or delay the construction. This mechanism causes the boom and bust cycle in new investment.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제13권8호
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• pp.61-71
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• 2015

Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.43-60
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• 2002

This paper describes the forecast of wholesale price in competitive Korean electricity market using the system dynamics approach. The system dynamics concepts have been implemented with the Ithink software. This software facilitates the development of stock and flow model with information feedback. Using this model, the future wholesale electricity price can be computed hour by hour, quarterly, and yearly. This model also gives the energy planner the opportunity to create different scenarios for the future of deregulated wholesale markets in Korea. Also It will lead to increased understanding of competitive wholesale market as a complex, dynamic system. Research results show that the plant construction appeared in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market like real estate construction. That is, the Korea wholesale market's new power plants and the market price will appear the Boom and Bust cycle. It is very similar behavior as real estate industry. In case of consideration of DSM program, The DSM savings lead to a somewhat different timing of the booms in construction and of price spikes. But the DSM programs do not eliminated the fundamental dynamics of the boom and bust. And the wholesale price is maintained at the lower level compared to the case of without DSM program. However, the unexpected result is found that due to the lower market price, Investor make significantly less investment in new CCs, which leads to the higher wholesale price after 2010. It suggests that the DSM Policy must be implemented with the dynamics of competitive Electricity Market.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.221-240
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper investigates how business cycle impacts on corporate credit spreads since global financial crisis. Furthermore, it tests how the impact changes by the phase of the cycle. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected dataset from Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index through the Bloomberg. It conducted multi-regression analysis by projecting business cycle using Hodrick-Prescott filtering and various cyclical variables, while ran dynamic analysis of 5-variable Vector Error Correction Model to confirm the robustness of the test. Findings - First, it proves to be statistically significant that corporate credit spreads have moved countercyclicaly since the crisis. Second, It indicates that the corporate credit spread's countercyclicality to the macroeconomic changes works symmetrically by the phase of the cycle. Third, the VECM supports that business cycle's impact on the spreads maintains more sustainably than other explanatory variable does in the model. Research implications or Originality - It becomes more appealing to accurately measure the real economic impact on corporate credit spreads as the interaction between credit and business cycle deepens. The economic impact on the spreads works symmetrically by boom and bust, which implies that the market stress could impact as another negative driver during the bust. Finally, the business cycle's sustainable impact on the spreads supports the fact that the economic recovery is the key driver for the resilience of credit cycle.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.5-13
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• 2018

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to look into some alternative for Korean shipping to overcome difficult situations in shipping, since then it is economic crisis at the end of 2000s. Research design, data, and methodology - The research method to be adopted is first to review theoretical overview about shipping cycle, and then examine difficult shipping situations and studies management aspect, which is to related to establishment of Korea Shipping Council. Results - The boom and bust situations in shipping market have been identified as result of economic crisis at the end of 2000s. Trade volumes have fallen and shipping tonnage has risen respectively. In practical terms, shipping industry has suffered from difficult situations, following to supply and demand of shipping market, and Korean shipping had to face hard time as well, according to lack of management ability of shipping company. Alternatively, it should be asked shipping forum like Korea Shipping Council. Conclusions - From situations of shipping markets since the end of 2000s, it is strongly asked that every parties got involved in shipping business should understand and share more expertise and knowledge of shipping market, which is finally related to decision- making process in shipping.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.57-66
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• 2018

해운산업은 파생적 수요의 특성으로 대외적 요인에 영향을 크게 받는다. 하지만, 공급 측면은 이러한 수요의 변화에 즉각적으로 대응할 수 없는 특성 때문에 해운산업은 호황과 불황을 거듭하게 된다. 그러므로 정부는 이러한 상황에 대응하기 위해 조기경보모형을 구축해 시장을 모니터링하고 다가올 위험을 예측하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 신호접근법을 사용해 조기경보모형을 구축하였으며, 위기지수는 BDI를 사용해 정의하였으며 금융, 경제, 선박 등 다양한 선행지수를 활용해 종합선행지수를 도출하였다. 그 결과, 종합선행지수가 해운분야의 실제 위기지수와 비교해 4개월의 시차를 두고 높은 상관관계를 보였고, QPS(Quadratic Probability Score)가 0.37로 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타났다.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.33-43
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• 2012

Why solar companies preferred vertical integration of whole value chain? Major solar companies have built internally strong vertical integration of entire PV value chain. We raise a question whether such integration increases the corporate value and whether market situation affects the result. To test these questions, we conducted multi-variant analysis where characteristic factors mainly affect the corporate value measured in terms of Tobin'Q, based on the financial and non-financial data of PV companies listed in US stock market between 2005 and 2010. We hypothesize that since integration increases the overall efficiency but decreases the flexibility to adjust to various market situation, the combined effect of the efficiency gain and the flexibility loss ultimately determines the sign of integration effect on the corporate vale. We infer that the combined effect will be influenced heavily by business cycle, as in boom market (Seller's market) the efficiency gain may be larger than the flexibility loss and vice versa in bust market. We test whether the sign of combined effect changes after the year of 2009 and which factors influence most the sign. Year of 2009 is known as the year when market shifted from Seller's to Buyer's market. We show that 1) integration increases corporate value in general but after 2009 integration significantly decreases the value, 2) the ratios such as Production/Total Cost, Cash turnover period chosen for reversal of the flexibility measure are negatively affect Tobin's Q and especially stronger after 2009. This shows the flexibility improves corporate value and stronger in the recess period (Buyer's market). These results imply that solar company should set up integration strategy considering the tradeoff between efficiency and flexibility and the impact of the business cycle on both factors. Strategy only based on the price competitiveness determined in boom time can bring undesirable outcomes to the company. In addition, Strategic alliances in some value chains as a flexible bondage should be taken in account as complementary choice to the rigid integration.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.25-40
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• 2001

This paper describes the forecast of power plant construction in a competitive korean electricity market. In Korea, KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation, fully controlled by government) was responsible for from the production of the electricity to the sale of electricity to customer. However, the generation part is separated from KEPCO and six generation companies were established for whole sale competition from April 1st, 2001. The generation companies consist of five fossil power companies and one nuclear power company in Korea at present time. Fossil power companies are scheduled to be sold to private companies including foreign investors. Nuclear power company is owned and controlled by government. The competition in generation market will start from 2003. ISO (Independence System Operator will purchase the electricity from the power exchange market. The market price is determined by the SMP(System Marginal Price) which is decided by the balance between demand and supply of electricity in power exchange market. Under this uncertain circumstance, the energy policy planners such as government are interested to the construction of the power plant in the future. These interests are accelerated due to the recent shortage of electricity supply in California. In the competitive market, investors are no longer interested in the investment for the capital intensive, long lead time generating technologies such as nuclear and coal plants. Large unclear and coal plants were no longer the top choices. Instead, investors in the competitive market are interested in smaller, more efficient, cheaper, cleaner technologies such as CCGT(Combined Cycle Gas Turbine). Electricity is treated as commodity in the competitive market. The investors behavior in the commodity market shows that the new investment decision is made when the market price exceeds the sum of capital cost and variable cost of the new facility and the existing facility utilization depends on the marginal cost of the facility. This investors behavior can be applied to the new investments for the power plant. Under these postulations, there is the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity like commodity production or real estate production. A computer model was developed to sturdy the possibility that construction will appear in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market. This model was constructed using System Dynamics method pioneered by Forrester(MIT, 1961) and explained in recent text by Sternman (Business Dynamics, MIT, 2000) and the recent work by Andrew Ford(Energy Policy, 1999). This model was designed based on the Energy Policy results(Ford, 1999) with parameters for loads and resources in Korea. This Korea Market Model was developed and tested in a small scale project to demonstrate the usefulness of the System Dynamics approach. Korea electricity market is isolated and not allowed to import electricity from outsides. In this model, the base load such as unclear and large coal power plant are assumed to be user specified investment and only CCGT is selected for new investment by investors in the market. This model may be used to learn if government investment in new unclear plants could compensate for the unstable actions of private developers. This model can be used to test the policy focused on the role of unclear investments over time. This model also can be used to test whether the future power plant construction can meet the government targets for the mix of generating resources and to test whether to maintain stable price in the spot market.