• Title/Summary/Keyword: Biases

Search Result 594, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 GCMs for Various Climatic Elements and Indicators over the Southeast US (다양한 기후요소와 지표에 대한 CMIP5 GCMs 모델 성능 평가 -미국 남동부 지역을 대상으로-)

  • Hwang, Syewoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.47 no.11
    • /
    • pp.1039-1050
    • /
    • 2014
  • The goal of this study is to demonstrate the diversity of model performance for various climatic elements and indicators. We evaluated the skills of the most advanced 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) i.e., CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison project, phase 5) climate models in reproducing retrospective climatology from 1950 to 2000 over the Southeast US for the key climatic elements important in the hydrological and agricultural perspectives (i.e., precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and wind speed). The biases of raw CMIP5 GCMs were estimated for 16 different climatic indicators that imply mean climatology, temporal variability, extreme frequency, etc. using a grid-based observational dataset as reference. Based on the error (RMSE) and correlation (R) of GCM outputs, the error-based GCM ranks were assigned on average over the indicators. Overall, the GCMs showed much better accuracy in representing mean climatology of temperature comparing to other elements whereas few GCM showed acceptable skills for precipitation. It was also found that the model skills and ranks would be substantially different by the climatic elements, error statistics applied for evaluation, and indicators as well. This study presents significance of GCM uncertainty and the needs of considering rational strategies for climate model evaluation and selection.

A Case Study on Stochastic Fracture Network Modeling for Rock Slopes of Busan-Ulsan Highway(Reach 5) (부산-울산 고속국도(5공구)에 위치한 암반사면의 추계론적 절리연결구조 모사에 대한 사례연구)

  • Heo, In-Sill;Um, Jeong-Gi;Kim, Yang-Phil;Kim, Kook-Han;Lee, Young-Kyun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.16 no.4 s.50
    • /
    • pp.337-349
    • /
    • 2006
  • Seven hundred and fifty one fractures of the rhyolitic tuffaceous rock masses were mapped using 6 scanlines placed on rock slope exposures that were within 8.02 km of Busan-Ulsan highway. These data were analyzed to find the number of fracture sets that exist in the rock slopes and the probability distributions of orientation, spacing, trace length and fracture size in 3-D for each of the fracture sets. All the fracture set orientation distributions exhibit high variability. The Fisher distributions were found to be unsuitable to represent the statistical distribution of orientation for most of the fracture sets. The probability distributions, gamma, exponential and lognormal were found to be highly suitable to represent the distribution of spacing and semi-trace length of fracture sets. In obtain-ing these distributions, corrections were applied for sampling biases associated with spacing and trace length. The generated fracture system in 3-D was used to make predictions of fracture traces for each fracture set on 2-D win-dows. Developed stochastic 3-D fracture network for the rock mass was validated by comparing statistical proper-ties of the observed fracture traces on scanlines with the predicted fracture traces on the scanlines. This exercise fumed out to be successful.

Development of a Gridded Simulation Support System for Rice Growth Based on the ORYZA2000 Model (ORYZA2000 모델에 기반한 격자형 벼 생육 모의 지원 시스템 개발)

  • Hyun, Shinwoo;Yoo, Byoung Hyun;Park, Jinyu;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.270-279
    • /
    • 2017
  • Regional assessment of crop productivity using a gridded simulation approach could aid policy making and crop management. Still, little effort has been made to develop the systems that allows gridded simulations of crop growth using ORYZA 2000 model, which has been used for predicting rice yield in Korea. The objectives of this study were to develop a series of data processing modules for creating input data files, running the crop model, and aggregating output files in a region of interest using gridded data files. These modules were implemented using C++ and R to make the best use of the features provided by these programming languages. In a case study, 13000 input files in a plain text format were prepared using daily gridded weather data that had spatial resolution of 1km and 12.5 km for the period of 2001-2010. Using the text files as inputs to ORYZA2000 model, crop yield simulations were performed for each grid cell using a scenario of crop management practices. After output files were created for grid cells that represent a paddy rice field in South Korea, each output file was aggregated into an output file in the netCDF format. It was found that the spatial pattern of crop yield was relatively similar to actual distribution of yields in Korea, although there were biases of crop yield depending on regions. It seemed that those differences resulted from uncertainties incurred in input data, e.g., transplanting date, cultivar in an area, as well as weather data. Our results indicated that a set of tools developed in this study would be useful for gridded simulation of different crop models. In the further study, it would be worthwhile to take into account compatibility to a modeling interface library for integrated simulation of an agricultural ecosystem.

Elimination of Redundant Input Information and Parameters during Neural Network Training (신경망 학습 과정중 불필요한 입력 정보 및 파라미터들의 제거)

  • Won, Yong-Gwan;Park, Gwang-Gyu
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
    • /
    • v.3 no.3
    • /
    • pp.439-448
    • /
    • 1996
  • Extraction and selection of the informative features play a central role in pattern recognition. This paper describes a modified back-propagation algorithm that performs selection of the informative features and trains a neural network simultaneously. The algorithm is mainly composed of three repetitive steps : training, connection pruning, and input unit elimination. Afer initial training, the connections that have small magnitude are first pruned. Any unit that has a small number of connections to the hidden units is deleted,which is equivalent to excluding the feature corresponding to that unit.If the error increases,the network is retraned,again followed by connection pruning and input unit elimination.As a result,the algorithm selects the most im-portant features in the measurement space without a transformation to another space.Also,the selected features are the most-informative ones for the classification,because feature selection is tightly coupled with the classifi-cation performance.This algorithm helps avoid measurement of redundant or less informative features,which may be expensive.Furthermore,the final network does not include redundant parameters,i.e.,weights and biases,that may cause degradation of classification performance.In applications,the algorithm preserves the most informative features and significantly reduces the dimension of the feature vectors whiout performance degradation.

  • PDF

Comparative Analysis of Focal Length Bias for Three Different Line Scanners (초점거리 편의가 지상 정확도에 미치는 영향 비교 연구 - 세가지 라인 스캐너를 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Changjae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.32 no.4_1
    • /
    • pp.363-371
    • /
    • 2014
  • Most space-borne optical scanning systems adopt linear arrayconfigurations. The well-knownthree different types of space-borne sensors arealong-track line scanner, across-track linescanner, and three line scanner. To acquire accurate location information of an object on the ground withthose sensors, the exterior and interior orientation parameters are critical factors for both of space-borne and airborne missions. Since the imaging geometry of sensors mightchange time to time due to thermal influence, vibration, and wind, it is very important to analyze the Interior Orientation Parameters (IOP) effects on the ground. The experiments based on synthetic datasets arecarried out while the focal length biases are changing. Also, both high and low altitudes of the imagingsensor were applied. In case with the along-track line scanner, the focal length bias caused errors along the scanline direction. In the other case with the across-track one, the focal length bias caused errors alongthe scan line and vertical directions. Lastly, vertical errors were observed in the case ofthree-line scanner. Those results from this study will be able to provide the guideline for developing new linearsensors, so as for improving the accuracy of laboratory or in-flight sensor calibrations.

Does performing high- or low-risk coronary artery bypass graft surgery bias the assessment of risk-adjusted mortality rates of hospitals? (관상동맥우회로술의 위험 수준이 병원내사망률 평가 결과에 미친 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Kwang-Soo;Lee, Sang-Il;Lee, Jung-Soo
    • Health Policy and Management
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.87-105
    • /
    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze whether nonemergency, isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery for high- or low-risk patients biases the assessment of the risk-adjusted mortality rates of hospitals. This study used 2002 National Health Insurance claims data for tertiary hospitals in Korea. The study sample consisted of 1,959 patients from 23 tertiary hospitals. The risk-adjustment model used the patients' biological, admission, and comorbidity data identified in the claims. The subjects were classified into high- and low-risk groups based on predicted surgical risk. The crude mortality rates and risk-adjusted mortality rates for low-risk, high-risk, and all patients in a hospital were compared based on the rank and the four intervals defined by quartile. Also, the crude mortality rates of the three groups were compared with their 95% confidence intervals of predicted mortality rates. The C-statistic (0.83) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test ($X^2$=11.47, p=0.18) indicated that the risk-adjustment model performed well. Presenting crude mortality rates with their 95% confidence intervals of predicted rates showed higher agreements among the three groups than using the rank or intervals of mortality rates defined by quartile in the hospital performance assessment. The crude mortality rates for the low-risk patients in 21 of the 23 hospitals were located on the same side of their 95% confidence intervals compared to that for all patients. High-risk patients and all patients differed at only one hospital. In conclusion, the impact of risk selection by hospital on the assessment results was the smallest when comparing the crude inpatient mortality rates of CABG patients with the 95% confidence intervals of predicted mortality rates. Given the increasing importance of quality improvements in Korean health policy, it will be necessary to use the appropriate method of releasing the hospital performance data to the public to minimize any unwanted impact such as risk-based hospital selection.

The Effect of Audience Attitude toward Product Placement on Product Attitude and Purchase Intention (PPL에 대한 수용자의 태도가 PPL된 제품 태도 및 구매의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Chae, Se-Ra;Han, Woong-Hee;Kim, Geon-Ha
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.71-81
    • /
    • 2015
  • Purpose - This study aims to examine the effect of audience attitude toward product placement, or PPL, on product attitude and purchase intention. PPL has increasingly been prevailing in TV dramas since the revision of the Broadcasting Act in January 2010, and it is quite widespread in today's society. Therefore, this study intends to investigate how the audience would take a particular attitude toward PPL in TV dramas and how their attitude would affect their product attitude and purchase intention. Research design, data, and methodology - The sample for the current study was drawn from college students in Seoul in December 2013, as the main targets of the products and brands that were advertised by PPL are young people. The questionnaire for this study comprised nine parts, such as the knowledge of PPL, experience of PPL, TV drama watching time, impulsive buying propensity, celebrity imitating buying propensity, attitude toward PPL, attitude toward product, purchase intention, and demographic characteristics. The questionnaire items were measured by 5-point Likert scales. Whether the demographic characteristics and propensity to consume would affect PPL attitude was analyzed and how the PPL attitude would affect purchase intention through product attitude was analyzed as well. To analyze the relationship between variables, structural equation modeling analysis was performed with Amos 18.0. Results - The major findings of the study were as follows. First, whether the demographic characteristics and propensity to consume would affect PPL attitude was analyzed, and it is found that out of the demographic characteristics, only gender and knowledge of PPL exerted an influence on PPL attitude. In addition, celebrity-imitating buying propensity had an impact on PPL attitude. Second, whether PPL attitude would affect purchase intention through product attitude was analyzed by structural equation modeling. Consequently, it is found that PPL attitude impacted purchase intention through product attitude. Conclusions - The findings of the study had the following implications. First, in theoretical aspects, previous studies have proven only that attitude toward PPL influenced attitude toward product and purchase intention separately; however, the current study has investigated the mediated role of attitudes toward PPL. Second, regarding the practical aspects, as PPL attitude exercised an effect on purchase intention as well as product attitude, PPL should be utilized in a manner to stimulate the audience to take a positive attitude to it. Finally, gender, PPL knowledge, and celebrity-imitating buying orientation were identified as influential factors for PPL attitude. Specifically, female consumers showed a lower attitude toward PPL than males, and the consumers who have no knowledge showed a lower attitude toward PPL. The consumers who have celebrity imitating buying propensity expressed a higher attitude toward PPL. These factors should consequently be taken into account when PPL is planned and conducted. The current study has limitations such as the sample object, non- experimental method, and media biases. Therefore, future research should be conducted to address these limitations.

Standard Index Development for Comparing the Glomerular Number (사구체 수의 증감을 비교할 수 잇는 기준 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Jin;Lee, Chi-Eun;Lee, Kook-Joo;Choi, Young-Ho;Hong, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.85-93
    • /
    • 2001
  • Background: The number of glomerulus has been considered one of the etiologic factors especially for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. However, glomeruli are too many to calculate them correctly. Although the fractionator method has became convinced, in which they used selected sections, not whole kidney sections, with same intervals, it is also very hard to get good results. Because it is still very time-consuming and laborous work which leads to make big observers' biases. Methods and Materials: We designed the index for glomerular number to estimate the tendency of increase or decrease of the number of it in different kidneys and which was evaluated by other conventional methods including fractionator method. Index was based upon the theory by Nyengaard; "the number of glomerulus correlates with the weight of kidney, which is positively correlated with body weight". Calculating formula is the number of glomeruli/surface areas of cortices, which contain calculated glomeruli multiplies by kidney weight/body weight. Results: We applied this index to kidneys of FGS/Kist mouse and those of RFM/Nga mouse. The former is spontaneous glomerulosclerosis model with heavy protein uria and renal failure and the latter is the mother side of FGS/Kist mouse but has no glomerular disease or protein uria. The number of glomerulus of FGS/Kist mouse was decreased by 30% to those of RFM/Nga mouse. Conclusion: This index was useful and reliable for estimating the relative glomerular number between two groups.

  • PDF

Mutual Adjustment of Oceanographic Measurements from leodo Station and Satellite Data (원격탐사자료와 이어도기지 해양관측자료를 이용한 상호 보정)

  • Kim Chang-Oh;Shim Jae-Seol;Hwang Jong-Sun;Lee Jae-Hak;Kim Soodung;Kim Jeong Woo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.113-120
    • /
    • 2005
  • Oceanographic measurements from Ieodo Ocean Research Station and its vicinity were compared for assessment and mutually adjusted with satellite data. From the Topex/Poseidon and ERS-1/2 radar altimeter and scatterometer data, sea surface height, wind speed and direction were extracted and analyzed. Shipborne wind direction data acquired in June 1995 show good coherence with the satellite data, while sea surface height and wind speed show differences, possibly resulting from the distance between the measurement points. This can be improved by analyzing more satellite data or using other available shipborne data. The recent 3 months of Ieodo Station data between December 2004 and February 2005 were also analyzed and compared with the satellite data. The Ieodo Station data were found to have considerable gaps during the period as well as seriously biased particular when the data were averaged with some abnormal data. The Ieodo Station and satellite data were then mutually adjusted on the basis of their statistics. Ieodo Station oceanographic measurements are very efficient for ground-frothing of satellite data because they are stationary and the station is located far from the coast. On the other hand, the satellite measurements are the only data to fill up gaps and adjust biases of the Ieodo Station data.

The Effect of Government Officials' Cultural Bias to their Social Acceptance including a Case Study of Implementing New Air Traffic Flow Management System (공무원의 문화적 편향이 사회적 수용성에 미치는 영향 연구: 새로운 항공교통시스템 도입 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Soo-Jung;Jin, Jang-Won;Park, Sung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.493-503
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this study aviation authority officials were classified into four cultural groups according to culture theory, and then questioned to determine the effects of cultural bias on their social acceptance of a new air traffic flow management system. Based on previous studies, cultural biases were categorized as egalitarianistic, individualistic, fatalistic, and hierarchical, and social acceptances were considered to be influenced by four variables, that is, perceptions of usefulness, work attitude, intention to use, and behavior (job absorption). Empirical analysis showed that hierarchy had a significant positive effect on social acceptance, and egalitarianism was found to have a significant positive effect on social acceptance with 95% credibility. We propose the organizational culture of Korean government be changed to accept the diverse opinions of government officials during the implementation phase of the new system recommended by ICAO.