• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.97-109
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• 2020

On March 11, 2011, an earthquake followed by a tsunami caused an extended station blackout (SBO) at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP Units. The accident was initiated by a total loss of both onsite and offsite electrical power resulting in the loss of the ultimate heat sink for several days, and a consequent core melt in some units where proper mitigation strategies could not be implemented in a timely fashion. To enhance the plant's coping capability, the Diverse and Flexible Strategies (FLEX) were proposed to append the Emergency Operation Procedures (EOPs) by relying on portable equipment as an additional line of defense. To assess the success window of FLEX strategies, all sources of uncertainties need to be considered, using a physics-based model or system code. This necessitates conducting a large number of simulations to reflect all potential variations in initial, boundary, and design conditions as well as thermophysical properties, empirical models, and scenario uncertainties. Alternatively, data-driven models may provide a fast tool to predict the success window of FLEX strategies given the underlying uncertainties. This paper explores the applicability of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to identify the success window of FLEX strategy for extended SBO. The developed model can be trained and validated using data produced by the lumped parameter thermal-hydraulic code, MARS-KS, as best estimate system code loosely coupled with Dakota for uncertainty quantification. A Systems Engineering (SE) approach is used to plan and manage the process of using AI to predict the success window of FLEX strategies under extended SBO conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.94-107
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• 2022

Accidents prevention and mitigation is the highest priority of nuclear power plant (NPP) operation, particularly in the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi accident, which has reignited public anxieties and skepticism regarding nuclear energy usage. To deal with accident scenarios more effectively, operators must have ample and precise information about key safety parameters as well as their future trajectories. This work investigates the potential of machine learning in forecasting NPP response in real-time to provide an additional validation method and help reduce human error, especially in accident situations where operators are under a lot of stress. First, a base-case SGTR simulation is carried out by the best-estimate code RELAP5/MOD3.4 to confirm the validity of the model against results reported in the APR1400 Design Control Document (DCD). Then, uncertainty quantification is performed by coupling RELAP5/MOD3.4 and the statistical tool DAKOTA to generate a large enough dataset for the construction and training of neural-based machine learning (ML) models, namely LSTM, GRU, and hybrid CNN-LSTM. Finally, the accuracy and reliability of these models in forecasting system response are tested by their performance on fresh data. To facilitate and oversee the process of developing the ML models, a Systems Engineering (SE) methodology is used to ensure that the work is consistently in line with the originating mission statement and that the findings obtained at each subsequent phase are valid.