• 제목/요약/키워드: Best-estimate Analysis

검색결과 306건 처리시간 0.028초

Modeling of CO2 Emission from Soil in Greenhouse

  • Lee, Dong-Hoon;Lee, Kyou-Seung;Choi, Chang-Hyun;Cho, Yong-Jin;Choi, Jong-Myoung;Chung, Sun-Ok
    • 원예과학기술지
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.270-277
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    • 2012
  • Greenhouse industry has been growing in many countries due to both the advantage of stable year-round crop production and increased demand for fresh vegetables. In greenhouse cultivation, $CO_2$ concentration plays an essential role in the photosynthesis process of crops. Continuous and accurate monitoring of $CO_2$ level in the greenhouse would improve profitability and reduce environmental impact, through optimum control of greenhouse $CO_2$ enrichment and efficient crop production, as compared with the conventional management practices without monitoring and control of $CO_2$ level. In this study, a mathematical model was developed to estimate the $CO_2$ emission from soil as affected by environmental factors in greenhouses. Among various model types evaluated, a linear regression model provided the best coefficient of determination. Selected predictor variables were solar radiation and relative humidity and exponential transformation of both. As a response variable in the model, the difference between $CO_2$ concentrations at the soil surface and 5-cm depth showed are latively strong relationship with the predictor variables. Segmented regression analysis showed that better models were obtained when the entire daily dataset was divided into segments of shorter time ranges, and best models were obtained for segmented data where more variability in solar radiation and humidity were present (i.e., after sun-rise, before sun-set) than other segments. To consider time delay in the response of $CO_2$ concentration, concept of time lag was implemented in the regression analysis. As a result, there was an improvement in the performance of the models as the coefficients of determination were 0.93 and 0.87 with segmented time frames for sun-rise and sun-set periods, respectively. Validation tests of the models to predict $CO_2$ emission from soil showed that the developed empirical model would be applicable to real-time monitoring and diagnosis of significant factors for $CO_2$ enrichment in a soil-based greenhouse.

Predicting Stock Liquidity by Using Ensemble Data Mining Methods

  • Bae, Eun Chan;Lee, Kun Chang
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제21권6호
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2016
  • In finance literature, stock liquidity showing how stocks can be cashed out in the market has received rich attentions from both academicians and practitioners. The reasons are plenty. First, it is known that stock liquidity affects significantly asset pricing. Second, macroeconomic announcements influence liquidity in the stock market. Therefore, stock liquidity itself affects investors' decision and managers' decision as well. Though there exist a great deal of literature about stock liquidity in finance literature, it is quite clear that there are no studies attempting to investigate the stock liquidity issue as one of decision making problems. In finance literature, most of stock liquidity studies had dealt with limited views such as how much it influences stock price, which variables are associated with describing the stock liquidity significantly, etc. However, this paper posits that stock liquidity issue may become a serious decision-making problem, and then be handled by using data mining techniques to estimate its future extent with statistical validity. In this sense, we collected financial data set from a number of manufacturing companies listed in KRX (Korea Exchange) during the period of 2010 to 2013. The reason why we selected dataset from 2010 was to avoid the after-shocks of financial crisis that occurred in 2008. We used Fn-GuidPro system to gather total 5,700 financial data set. Stock liquidity measure was computed by the procedures proposed by Amihud (2002) which is known to show best metrics for showing relationship with daily return. We applied five data mining techniques (or classifiers) such as Bayesian network, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, neural network, and ensemble method. Bayesian networks include GBN (General Bayesian Network), NBN (Naive BN), TAN (Tree Augmented NBN). Decision tree uses CART and C4.5. Regression result was used as a benchmarking performance. Ensemble method uses two types-integration of two classifiers, and three classifiers. Ensemble method is based on voting for the sake of integrating classifiers. Among the single classifiers, CART showed best performance with 48.2%, compared with 37.18% by regression. Among the ensemble methods, the result from integrating TAN, CART, and SVM was best with 49.25%. Through the additional analysis in individual industries, those relatively stabilized industries like electronic appliances, wholesale & retailing, woods, leather-bags-shoes showed better performance over 50%.

Effects of Maternal Factors on Day-old Chick Body Weight and Its Relationship with Weight at Six Weeks of Age in a Commercial Broiler Line

  • Jahanian, Rahman;Goudarzi, Farshad
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.302-307
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    • 2010
  • The present study aimed to investigate the effects of maternal factors on body weight at hatching (day-old) and at six weeks of age in a commercial broiler line. A total of 6,765 records on body weight at day-old (BWTDO) and 115,421 records on body weight at six weeks of age (BWT6W), originated from a commercial broiler line during 14 generations, were used to estimate genetic parameters related to the effects of maternal traits on body weight of chicks immediately after hatch or six weeks thereafter. The data were analyzed using restricted maximum likelihood procedure (REML) and an animal model with DFREML software. Direct heritability ($h^{2}{_a}$), maternal heritability ($h^{2}{_m}$), and maternal environmental variance as the proportions of phenotypic variance ($c^{2}$) for body weight at day-old were estimated to be 0.050, 0.351, and 0.173, respectively. The respective estimated values for body weight at six weeks of age were 0.340, 0.022, and 0.030. The correlation coefficient between direct and maternal genetic effects for six-week-old body weight was found to be -0.335. Covariance components and genetic correlations were estimated using a bivariate analysis based on the best model determined by a univariate analysis. Between weights at hatching and at six week-old, the values of -0.07, 0.53 and 0.47 were found for the direct additive genetic variance, maternal additive genetic variance and permanent maternal environmental variance, respectively. The estimated correlation between direct additive genetic effect influencing weight at hatch and direct additive maternal effect affecting weight at six weeks of age was -0.21, whereas the correlation value of 0.15 was estimated between direct additive maternal effect influencing weight at hatch and direct additive genetic effect affecting weight at six-week-old. From the present findings, it can be concluded that the maternal additive genetic effect observed for weight at six weeks of age might be a factor transferred from genes influencing weight at hatch to weight at six-week-old.

지반강성의 변동성이 원전구조물의 지반-구조물 상호작용 응답에 미치는 영향 분석 (Evaluation of Soil Stiffness Variability Effects on Soil-Structure Interaction Response of Nuclear Power Plant Structure)

  • 김재민;노태용;허정원;김문수;현창헌
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2015
  • This study investigated the influence of probabilistic variability in stiffness and nonlinearity of soil on response of nuclear power plant (NPP) structure subjected to seismic loads considering the soil-structure interaction (SSI). Both deterministic and probabilistic methods have been employed to evaluate the dynamic responses of the structure. For the deterministic method, $SRP_{min}$ method given in USNRC SRP 3.7.2(2013) (envelope of responses using three shear modulus profiles of lower bound($G_{LB}$), best estimate($G_{BE}$) and upper bound($G_{UB}$)) and $SRP_{max}$ method (envelope of responses by more than three ground profiles within range of $G_{LB}{\leq}G{\leq}G_{UB}$) have been considered. The probabilistic method uses the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) that can capture probabilistic feature of soil stiffness defined by the median and the standard deviation. These analysis results indicated that 1) number of samples shall be larger than 60 to apply the probabilistic approach in SSI analysis and 2) in-structure response spectra using equivalent linear soil profiles considering the nonlinear behavior of soil medium can be larger than those based on low-strain soil profiles.

Evaluation of Kinetic Parameters and Thermal Stability of Melt-Quenched BixSe100-x Alloys (x≤7.5 at%) by Non-Isothermal Thermogravimetric Analysis

  • Ahmad, Mais Jamil A.;Abdul-Gader Jafar, Mousa M.;Saleh, Mahmoud H.;Shehadeh, Khawla M.;Telfah, Ahmad;Ziq, Khalil A.;Hergenroder, Roland
    • Applied Microscopy
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    • 제47권3호
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    • pp.110-120
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    • 2017
  • Non-isothermal thermogravimetry (TG) measurements on melt-quenched $Bi_xSe_{100-x}$ specimens (x=0, 2.5, 7.5 at%) were made at a heating rate ${\beta}=10^{\circ}C/min$ in the range $T=35^{\circ}C{\sim}950^{\circ}C$. The as-measured TG curves confirm that $Bi_xSe_{100-x}$ samples were thermally stable with minor loss at $T{\leq}400^{\circ}C$ and mass loss starts to decrease up to $600^{\circ}C$, beyond which trivial mass loss was observed. These TG curves were used to estimate molar (Se/Bi)-ratios of $Bi_xSe_{100-x}$ samples, which were not in accordance with initial composition. Shaping features of conversion curves ${\alpha}(T)-T$ of $Bi_xSe_{100-x}$ samples combined with a reliable flow chart were used to reduce kinetic mechanisms that would have caused their thermal mass loss to few nth-order reaction models of the form $f[{\alpha}(T)]{\propto}[1-{\alpha}(T)]^n$ (n=1/2, 2/3, and 1). The constructed ${\alpha}(T)-T$ and $(d{\alpha}(T)/dT)-T$ curves were analyzed using Coats-Redfern (CR) and Achar-Brindley-Sharp (ABS) kinetic formulas on basis of these model functions, but the linearity of attained plots were good in a limited ${\alpha}(T)-region$. The applicability of CR and ABS methods, with model function of kinetic reaction mechanism R0 (n=0), was notable as they gave best linear fits over much broader ${\alpha}(T)-range$.

Digital subtraction radiography를 이용한 치조골 변화의 정략적 분석 (QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE ALVEOLAR BONE CHANGE BY THE DIGITAL SUBTRACTION RADIOGRAPHY)

  • 류명걸;정현주
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 1995
  • The progress of periodontal disease and the wound healing process after treatment result in alveolar bone bone change. So, detection of it is very important in the diagnosis and the radiograph of periodontal disease. Various effects have been made to assess the subtle alveolar bone change and digital subtraction radiography (DSR) has been reported to be the best method in evaluating it qualitatively and quantitatively. The present study was performed to estimate the detectable alveolar bone change qualitatively with digital subtraction radiography. For the in vitro study, 10 intraoral standard radiographs were taken from porcine dry mandible which a rectangular cortical bone chip of 0.1mm to 1.0mm thickness with 0.1mm increment was attached on the buccal surface. The radiographs without and with bone plates were reviewed at the same time by 10 observers and requested to detect the presence of cortical bone plates. Digital Subtraction radiograph was reviewed subsequently by using the DSR system(digital converter-256 grey-levels,DT 2851,Data Translation Co., U.S.A;IBM 386 ; CCD camera, FOTOVIX, Tamrom Co., Japan). The detectable thickness of cortical bone plate was O.4mm on the intraoral radiograph and 0.2mm on the subtaction images. For the human study, radiographs were taken from patients by using intraoral film holding device and aluminum reference wedge before and 3 month after bone graft and 1 week after osteoplasty. The grey level change was estimated in the subtraction images and calculated to aluminum equivalent thickness. The grey level of the grafted site was higher that that of healthy controls. Average grey levels of change on healthy controls were O.48mm aluminum equivalent. However, the amount of changes in grafted sites were 1.87mm aluminum thickness equivalent and in the site of osteoplasty were -1.49mm aluminum thickness equivalent. In conclusion, digital subtraction radiography was more effective in detecting as subtle change of alveolar bone than intraoral standard radiography. With the aid of quantitative analysis of digital subtraction radiography, alveolar bone resorption of apposition can be estimated during diagnosis and treatment of periodontally diseased patients.

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수평형 지중열교환기 설계를 위한 토양 열전도도 예측 모델 평가 (Evaluation of Conventional Prediction Model for Soil Thermal Conductivity to Design Horizontal Ground Heat Exchanger)

  • 손병후;위지혜;한은선;임지희;최항석
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지반공학회 2010년도 추계 학술발표회
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    • pp.813-824
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    • 2010
  • Thermal conductivity of soils is one of the most important parameters to design horizontal ground heat exchangers. It is well known that the thermal conductivity of soil is strongly influenced by its density and water content because of soil's particulate structure. This paper reviewed and evaluated some of the commonly used prediction models for thermal conductivity of soils with the experimental data available in the literature. Semi-theoretical models for two-component materials were found inappropriate to estimate the thermal conductivity of dry state sands. It came out that the model developed by Cote and Konrad gave the best overall prediction for unsaturated sands available in the literature. Also, a parametric analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of thermal conductivity and water content, soil type on the horizontal ground heat exchanger design. The analysis shows that a required pipe length for the horizontal ground heat exchanger is reduced with the increase of soil thermal conductivity and water content. The calculation results also show that the dimension of the horizontal ground heat exchanger can be reduced to a certain extent by using backfilling material with a higher thermal conductivity of solid particles.

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POORLY STUDIED ECLIPSING BINARIES IN THE FIELD OF DO DRACONIS: V454 DRA AND V455 DRA

  • Kim, Yonggi;Andronov, Ivan L.;Andrych, Kateryna D.;Yoon, Joh-Na;Han, Kiyoung;Chinarova, Lidia L.
    • 천문학회지
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    • 제53권2호
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    • pp.43-48
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    • 2020
  • We report an analysis of two poorly studied eclipsing binary stars, GSC 04396-00605 and GSC 04395-00485 (recently named V455 Dra and V454 Dra, respectively). Photometric data of the two stars were obtained using the 1-m Korean telescope of the LOAO operated by KASI while monitoring the cataclysmic variable DO Dra in the frame of the Inter-Longitude Astronomy (ILA) project. We derived periods of 0.434914 and 0.376833 days as well as initial epochs JD 2456480.04281 and JD 2456479.0523, respectively, more accurate than previously published values by factors 9 and 6. The phenomenological characteristics of the mean light curves were determined using the New Algol Variable (NAV) algorithm. The individual times of maxima/minima (ToM) were determined using the newly developed software MAVKA, which outputs accurate parameters using "asymptotic parabola" approximations. The light curves were approximated using phenomenological and physical models. In the NAV algorithm, the phenomenological parameters are well determined. We derived physical parameters using the Wilson-Devinney model. In this model, the best-fit parameters are highly correlated, thus some of them were fixed to reasonable values. For both systems, we find evidence for the presence of a cool spot and estimate its parameters. Both systems can be classified as overcontact binaries of EW type.

CREARE Downcomer실험에 대한 최적열수력 분석용 전산코드 CATHARE의 검증 (An Assessment of the Best Estimate Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis Code CATHARE on CREARE Downcomer Experiment)

  • Chang, Won-Pyo;Lee, Jae-Hoon;Kim, Dong-Su;Chae, Sung-Ki
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.274-284
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    • 1992
  • 가압경수로 최적 열수력 분석용 전산코드인 CATHRE의 모델 평가를 위하여 가압경수로의 가상 냉각재 상실사고시 원자로 용기내의 유동현상을 모의한 1/15축소의 CREARE 실험을 모의 계산하였다. 이 실험에서 주요변수들은 비상노심 탱각재 주입량과 아냉정도 그리고 계통압력 및 노심에서 발생되는 증기유량이지만. 본 연구에서는 우선 Downcomer에서 역방향유동의 정성적 분석에 촛점을 맞추었다. 모의 계산 결과와 실험 결과를 비교할 때 정량적인 값 뿐 아니라 변화의 경향에서도 차이가 나타난 것은 주로 적절하지 못한 일부의 수치해석 모델과 상간의 계면마찰 때문으로 판단된다. 따라서 매개변수적 민감도 분석을 통하여 CATHARE 전산코드의‘VOLUME’에 접한 접합점에서 운동량 보존방정식의 상세연구 혹은 다차원 분석을 통해서 이 경우의 물리적 현상을 보다 현실적으로 나타낼 수 있다는 결론을 얻었다.

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SECOND ATLAS DOMESTIC STANDARD PROBLEM (DSP-02) FOR A CODE ASSESSMENT

  • Kim, Yeon-Sik;Choi, Ki-Yong;Cho, Seok;Park, Hyun-Sik;Kang, Kyoung-Ho;Song, Chul-Hwa;Baek, Won-Pil
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제45권7호
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    • pp.871-894
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    • 2013
  • KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been operating an integral effect test facility, the Advanced Thermal-Hydraulic Test Loop for Accident Simulation (ATLAS), for transient and accident simulations of advanced pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Using ATLAS, a high-quality integral effect test database has been established for major design basis accidents of the APR1400 plant. A Domestic Standard Problem (DSP) exercise using the ATLAS database was promoted to transfer the database to domestic nuclear industries and contribute to improving a safety analysis methodology for PWRs. This $2^{nd}$ ATLAS DSP (DSP-02) exercise aims at an effective utilization of an integral effect database obtained from ATLAS, the establishment of a cooperation framework among the domestic nuclear industry, a better understanding of the thermal hydraulic phenomena, and an investigation into the possible limitation of the existing best-estimate safety analysis codes. A small break loss of coolant accident with a 6-inch break at the cold leg was determined as a target scenario by considering its technical importance and by incorporating interests from participants. This DSP exercise was performed in an open calculation environment where the integral effect test data was open to participants prior to the code calculations. This paper includes major information of the DSP-02 exercise as well as comparison results between the calculations and the experimental data.